Robert Ferringo later games
4.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 (+100) Washington at San Francisco
Note: This is our Total of the Week. I would wait on this game to see if it drops to 8.0, as I believe it may.
Kevin Correia has a robust 5.81 ERA on the season, including 7.20 in his last three outings. His opponent, rookie Colin Balester, is sporting a nice 5.87 ERA in this three outings this year. So we have two bad pitchers on the hill. And to add fuel and a spark, give us Gary Darling behind the dish. Darling is 14-6 against the total this year and 14 of his last 19 games have seen double-digits in runs. In all of his under games this year there was at least one ace on the hill ? Hallday, Lincecum, Duchscherer, Oswalt, and Martinez. We don?t have that today. The over is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in San Francisco, 7-1 in Washington?s last eight as an underdog, 13-6 in San Fran?s last 19 against the N.L. East, and 12-4 in Washington?s last 16 on the road against a poor home team. Two other factors that help our cause: 1) Washington has no closer, meaning their entire bullpen is now unsettled, and 2) the wind is blowing straight out at 12 mph tonight. Hopefully that will help us clear a couple of long balls.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Houston (-130) over Pittsburgh
1.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 Pittsburgh at Houston
There are about four different systems that suggest a play on the Astros today. I am going rather light on them, considering, because they looked absolutely pathetic last night. However, Brian Moehler has been a nice surprise for the Astros and he has given his team a shot in every one of his games. Ian Snell ? not so much.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 Detroit at Kansas City
Despite how theyve been swinging them, these clubs have been strong under plays all season and I think we'll find another one here today. The wind is blowing in severely today, at 14 mph, and each team has one of its better pitchers on the hill in Grienke and Galaragga. We have a nice 'under' ump in Mike Estabrook (3-10) and I think we're going to catch the Tigers looking ahead to their series with Chicago this weekend.
2-Unit Play. Take Over 9.0 San Diego at Cincinnati
Note: Bump to 2.5-Unit Play.
Lots of reasons to like this play right here. First, Bronson Arroyo is a mess during the day, posting a healthy 6.75 ERA in his five early starts this year. On top of that, Greg Maddux has a 5.29 ERA in his last three games and a 6.27 ERA on the road this year. The wind is blowing out to right field today and is pretty strong (12 mph), which should be a boon to all of Cincys left-handed power hitters. James Hoye is behind the dish and has a hitter-friendly zone. He?s just 8-15 against the total this year but I think that his strike-to-ball ratio, and his past performance, are going to make him a solid regression candidate over baseball?s second half.
1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+150) over New York Yankees
1-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+1.5, -135) over New York Yankees
This isnt a true chase because I don't want to "Let it ride" on the Twins. But if you're feeling frisky, or can't play run lines, I would suggest going with 3 Units on the moneyline here. I do think the Twins find a way to get one in this series, and I think they manufacture a W today.
1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+120) over New York Mets
1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+115) over San Francisco
1-Unit Play. Take Under 7.5 Atlanta at Florida
1-Unit Play. Take?Under 10.5 Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado
1-Unit Play. Take?Under 8.0 Boston at Seattle