Wednesday Service Plays 7/9/08

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Keith Martin

Computer Plays

Top play
Minnesota Twins Over 9.0 5

Medium plays
Detroit Tigers (M: -149.0) 3
San Francisco Giants Over 7.0 3
Seattle Mariners Over 8.5 3

Regular plays
Boston Red Sox (M: -241.0) 1
Los Angeles Dodgers (M: -112.0) 1
Chicago Cubs (M: -174.0) 1
Oakland Athletics (M: -160.0) 1
San Francisco Giants (M: 191.0) 1
Florida Marlins Over 8.5 1
Atlanta Braves Under 7.5 1
Chicago White Sox Under 8.5 1
Arizona D-backs Over 8.5 1
Cleveland Indians Over 10.0 1


Yesterday 6-6 0.1
Last 7 Days 41-38 0.9
Last 30 Days 66-46 29.4
 

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Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Tampa Bay +110 over NY YANKS: The Rays are 11-2 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 26-10 in their last 36 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, while the Yanks are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Edwin Jackson comes in off 3 solid outings as he 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts, allowing just a .262 OBP and posting a 1.00 WHIP in the 3 games. Edwin hasn't pitched that bad on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA, plus he is 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA in his day starts. Edwin is also 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in 6 career starts vs the Yanks, including a 1-1 mark with a 3.00 ERA in 3 starts vs them this year. Sidney Ponson is just 8-9 in his career vs the Rays with a 4.32 ERA, while in his lone start vs them this year he allowed 5 ER ojn 12 hits and 3 walks in just 5 innings of work. For the year Sidney has a solid 5-1 mark with a 4.18 ERA overall and even though he is 2-1 in his last 5 starts the ERA is pretty high at 6.00, while he has allowed teams a .444 OBP to go along with his 2.13 WHIP. That's mainly due to the run support the Yanks and Rangers have been giving him, but I'm not expecting big run support today as the Yanks offense has been sputtering of late. In the last 10 games only once has the Yanks offense shown up and that was the 18 run outburst vs the Rangers in Sidney's last start. Now if you take out that game then the Yanks offense has put just 2.6 rpg in the other 9 games. Even with the 18 runs the Yanks are scoring just 4.1 rpg and hitting only .225. Despite being shutout last night, the Tampa offense still has put 6.1 rpg on the board in their last 14 games and the score 5.2 rpg on the road for the year, including 6.2 rpg in their last 13 away from home. This is an important game for the Rays, as they do not want to get swept here by the Yanks, so look for their offense to hit Ponson hard, while Edwin keep the anemic Yankee offense at bay. Tampa gets the win easily.

also
Min/Bos over 9
 

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Dave Malinsky

GAME: Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals Jul 9, 2008 8:10PM

5* WHITE SOX/ROYALS Over

It took a while last night before the fireworks got started between these two, but when all was said and done there were 15 runs on the board, including a 5-5 after nine innings that was a clear ?regulation? Over. Tonight we expect a similar flow, with both teams having a chance to score early against the starters, and then perhaps even better opportunities against the bullpens later in the game. In fact, those bullpens may prove to be the real keys.

We have written a few times in recent weeks about Javier Vazquez, and how the notion that he has solved his home run issues was merely a mirage. He indeed got through his first five starts this season without allowing one over 30.2 innings. But much like the cold April weather was hurting the Chicago offense, it was also making Vazquez look a little too good. Since that opening salvo it has been 15 home runs in 75 innings, and four times in his last eight starts he has allowed multiple blasts. It has been just a 2-4/5.62 overall for him in that span, and Ozzie Guillen did not do him any favors when he left him out there for a 121-pitch complete game in Thursday?s loss to Oakland. He has not thrown more than that in a start since September of 2006. That leaves him vulnerable here both from a quality and quantity standpoint, which begins to bring those bullpen issues into play.

The White Sox finally had to put Bobby Jenks on the DL, and that is particularly awkward for tonight. Boone Logan, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton and Nick Masset all worked more than an inning last night, and while current closer Scott Linebrink only worked one, it was a draining 28-pitch failure. He has now been scored on in each of his last four appearances, blowing a pair of saves in the process, and off of those 28 pitches, and a laborious 26 to finish vs. Oakland on Sunday, he brings serious issues to the table.

There are similar issues for the Royals. One of the reasons why we chart statistics like BABIP so much (?Batting Average on Balls in Play?) is that it can point out when some pitchers are as much lucky as they are good. That was the case with Brian Bannister, and the 12-9/3.87 that he put together in 2007. Instead of it being a sign of a promising young talent, it was as much a case of someone holding the dice for a long time - of the 90 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, only A. J. Burnett and Chris Young were lower in that category. Now Bannister?s ERA has risen to 5.15, as many of those balls now find openings, and despite working 57 fewer innings than in 2007 so far, his home run count has almost equalled LY?s allowance. His last two starts have seen him tagged for 14 runs (13 earned) over 9.2 innings, with 205 pitches needed to merely get that far. That creates some quality and quantity issues for him tonight, which can exacerbate a Kansas City bullpen in even worse shape than their Chicago counterparts.

The Royals have had some solid performers coming out of the pen, but none can be counted on here. All-Star Joakim Soria has worked back-to-back games, throwing 49 pitches, and almost assuredly will be held out. Key lefty set-up man Ron Mahay is off of back-to-back nights and 40 pitches. Key right-handed set-up man Ramon Ramirez is off of back-to-back and 35. And fellow set-up men Horacio Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda both worked multiple innings last night. In other words, there is not a single quality fresh arm available, which is a real problem if Bannister can not eat some innings effectively, and that makes it even easier for us to get this one home.
 

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JOHN RYAN

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds ? Cubs bullpen is a bit weak of late sporting a 6.62 ERA and allowing 3 HR over the past 7 games. Reds bullpen arguably pitching their best of the season right now posting a 2.16 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP and recording 27 K?s over the past 7 games spanning 25 IP. Reds starter Cueto is pitching well posting a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP over the past 3 starts. Moreover, he has allowed just 4 BB and recording 17 K?s in 18.3 IP. Zambrano is pitching steady consistent baseball, but he has allowed 9 BB in his last 3 starts spanning 19.7 IP. Reds are 50-37 (+19.5 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season since 1997. Cueto is a strong rookie starter and averages 7.8 strikeouts per 9 innings to rank among all National League pitching leaders. Ranks among all NL rookie pitching leaders in wins (7), strikeouts (91), starts (18) and innings pitched with 105. In these 105.0 innings has 91 strikeouts and 38 walks and according to Elias Sports Bureau, Cueto is the only pitcher since 1900 to record as many as 18 strikeouts without a walk in his first 2 career starts (threw 16.0 innings and recorded 22 strikeouts before issuing his first career walk, to Pit?s Nate McLouth on 4/13 in his third start.).
 

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BEN BURNS

ANA (-135) vs TEX

The Rangers won a close one yesterday but the Angels should have the advantage this evening. Despite losing yesterday, the Angels are still 16-6 against left-handed starters this season. Today, for the second day in a row, they'll face a southpaw, Michael Ballard, making his major league debut. Ballard's minor league numbers were OK, as he had a 3.97 ERA this season. That was at Double-A though. Facing the best team in the AL West is obviously a big step up in class. Even if Ballard can pitch well, he's unlikely to outduel Weaver, as he's been red hot lately. Indeed, Weaver has a 1.45 ERA his last three starts and he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. Additionally, in his last two starts against Texas, Weaver has gone a full 14 inning without allowing a single earned run. During that 2-game stretch, he had 12 Ks to just two walks and allowed a mere seven hits. This season's lone start against the Rangers resulted in a 2-1 victory. Weaver should continue to pitch well and he should get more run support than that this evening. Consider a play on the LA ANGELS
 

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CHRIS CHIRIMBES

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Baltimore has held the lead in each of its last six losses, and its bullpen has compiled a 5.52 ERA in the last eight games overall. A loss Wednesday would saddle the Orioles with their first four-game losing streak since May 28-June 1. If Baltimore hopes to avoid another loss, it may need a big game at the plate with Olson (6-3, 5.04 ERA) struggling. Olson is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA in his last four starts. In his last outing, the left-hander gave up six runs - five earned - and eight hits in 5 1-3 innings as Baltimore lost 10-7 to Kansas City on Thursday night. Olson was the losing pitcher in his only career start versus the Blue Jays (43-47). He struggled through 2 2-3 innings, giving up five runs and six hits while walking four in a 5-2 loss on Aug. 17. Toronto will counter with A.J. Burnett (8-8, 4.92), who struggled against Baltimore on June 7. He gave up eight runs and 10 hits in 4 1-3 innings in a 9-5 loss. Burnett is 5-1 with a 4.53 ERA in seven career starts against the Orioles.
 

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TONY KARPINSKI

Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Under

The two teams with the lowest runs allowed in the NL face off here on Wednesday. Both teams boast excellent starting pitching and tonight Tim Hudson will face Derek Lowe. Hudson hasn't done too well on the road, posting a 2-5 mark with 4.35 era. Lowe on the other hand has pitched very well at home, boasting a 3.26 era. The right handed sinker ball pitcher has a 4-1 KO/BB ratio at Chavez Ravine this year. Neither team is known for their hitting this year either, so we'll take the under here on Wednesday and look for a very good pitcher's duel
 

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JAKE TIMLIN


REDS / CUBS UNDER

Thanks to the wind blowing from center and with both teams throwing their best starters look for a low scoring in Wrigley tonight. You see thanks to Zambrano?s season ERA of 2.96 and Cueto?s strong ERA of 1.96 over his last three starts it?s pitching that is going to set the tone tonight. Meanwhile combined both pitchers have pitched to an Under of 22-13 in their 35 starts for the year, including the last four starts from Cueto. Well mark up yet another Under tonight in Wrigley as both starters will help to keep things low.
 

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Charlies Sports

500* Braves/Dodgers under 7
30* Royals +110
20* Phillies -140
10* Padres -110
10* Yankees -120 (free play)
 

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ER Sports

Wed Night MLB O/U Playmaker (+12.35 Since 6/1): $29
Erin Rynning continues to crush the market in all sports banking +127 units since 2006 and has been stellar in Baseball Since June 1st banking +12.35 units in MLB. Get his MLB O/U Playmaker Report for $29 and if it doesn't win ER's next report is yours free.

Kansas City/Chicago Under 8.5 +100
 

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The Experts

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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ULTIMATE EXPERTS BASEBALL DIAMOND WINNER
Detroit w/Bonine -148 7:05 EST



Elite Sports Circle

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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5000* ELITE BASEBALL WINNER
Detroit w/Bonine -146 7:05 EST





Winners Inc.


Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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5000* BASEBALL CRUSHER
Atlanta w/Hudson +100 10:10 EST




The Consensus Group


Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND DOMINATOR WINNER
Oakland w/Blanton -160 10:05 EST
 

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Kelso Sturgeon

High Rollers Club
10 units Tigers

5 units Phillies
4 units White Sox
3 units Angels
 

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Aj Apollo

MLB 3* Cleveland Indians (Byrd vs Bonine)

MLB 3* Washington Nationals (Lannan vs Owings)



Anton wins


4 units Baltimore/Garrett Olson +140


TEDDY JUNE


MLB Game of the Day- LA Dodgers



LT Profits

MLB 2* Baltimore Orioles

MLB 2* Giants/Mets under 7

MLB 2* Diamondbacks/Nationals under 8.5
 

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Goodfellasports


MLB
2 BOXES- MILWAUKEE -1.5 -115 over COLORADO (8PM)
2 BOXES- BALTIMORE/TORONTO OVER 8.5 -110 (7PM)
1 BOX- ST LOUIS/PHILLY OVER 10.5 -120 (7PM)
1 BOX- DETRIOT -154 over CLEVELAND (7PM)

WNBA
1 BOX- MINNY -11.5 over ATLANTA (8PM)



Wayne Root


Chairman- Phillies
Millionaire- Astros
Money Maker- Braves
Billionaire- White Sox
 

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Vegas Runner

MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
910 WAS / 909 ARI Over 8 BetUS
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (OVER -110)


MLB RunLine Single-Dime Bet
914 MIL -1.5 (-110) SportBet vs 913 COL
Analysis:
* 1* RL WAGER * (-1.5 -110)


MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
916 LOS / 915 ATL Over 7 SportBet
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (OVER -110)



MLB RunLine Single-Dime Bet
930 OAK -1.5 (+130) Sportsbetting.com vs 929 SEA
Analysis: * 1* RL WAGER * (-1.5 +130)



MLB Total Single-Dime Bet
930 OAK / 929 SEA Over 8.5 SportBet
Analysis: * 1* TOTAL * (Over -125)


MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
909 ARI (-107) SportBet vs 910 WAS
Analysis: *** 3* MLB BEST BET of the DAY ***
 

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William Kidd

QUADRUPLE DIME RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
[ MLB ]
Date: Wednesday, July 09, 2008
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MILWAUKEE -1.5 Runs L -115 (Sheets)
 

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Teddy Covers


MLB NL Night Action (8-4 +3.85 Sports Run): $19
Here is your chance today to cash a baseball winner with Teddy Covers. Don't miss out on this huge report in National League action tonight for just $19. This play is guaranteed to win or Teddy's next baseball play is yours at no additional charge

Houston Astros
 

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Fairway Jay

MLB Run Line Report (+9.40 Since June 1st): $19
Fairway Jay's red hot run overall in MLB action has banked +9.40 units since June 1st. You can't afford to miss his top rated National League Run Line Report today for $19. It must win or you'll get Fairway's next MLB play at no additional charge.


Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (runline)
 

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BobbyClarkeSports

Phillies (Happ) wager $775 to win $500
Rockies (Rusch) wager $250 to win $515
Rangers (Wright) wager $200 to win $260



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