Wednesday Service Plays 8/20/08

the duke

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LT Profits

Oakland Athletics +230

Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins appears to be back in peak form, but Dallas Braden has also pitched well for the Oakland Athletics and the fact that Oakland has the better bullpen makes the, attractive at this monster price.

Braden may have been rushed to the majors last season, although he did show some flashes while he was up, and it probably served him best that he began this season in the minors. He has matured since his call-up, allowing three runs or less in three of his five starts, and he comes in here off of back-to-back Quality Starts.

The most impressive aspect about Braden since his recall has been his control, as he has just six walks in 44 innings, including only a total of two in those last two outings. It should also serve him well that the Twins have never faced him before, and if he is in need of relief, the Athletics ranks fifth in the majors with a 3.51 bullpen ERA.

Now we obviously have nothing negative to say about Liriano right now, as he has allowed a grand total of three earned runs in 18.2 innings in his three comeback starts. However, he does not figure to toss a Complete Game yet at this stage of his recovery, so if Braden continues his fine pitching and keeps Oakland within reach, the Oakland pen would actually shift the advantage to their favor in a tight game late.

In what could very well be a toss up in the late stages, there is enormous value taking this big price here.

Athletics +230


Tampa Bay Rays -125

The Tampa Bay Rays are now 5-0 at Tropicana Field vs. the Los Angeles Angels this year after winning the first two games of this series, and we look for the Rays to finish off the home season sweep tonight.

Rays starter Matt Garza is coming off of a Complete Game two-hit shutout of the normally hard-hitting Texas Rangers at Arlington. This marked his second Complete Game shutout in six starts, and the third time in those six starts that he has tossed at least 7.2 scoreless innings. Garza also has a nice 2.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year.

Jered Weaver has been a disappointment for an excellent Angel team, as he is only 10-9 with a 4.48 ERA, with the Halos as a team going a modest 12-12 in his starts. Weaver has failed to record a Quality Start in his last five starts, allowing at least five earned runs in two of those outings. He also has a rather high 1.45 WHIP on the road for the entire year.

The Rays are an amazing 47-17 at home, and we see no reason why they cannot bust out the brooms here.

Rays -125
 

the duke

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KBHoops

5 units Houston/Milw OVER 9 +103 **POD**
5 units Seattle Mariners +1.5 +120
 

the duke

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Sebastian


100* VEGAS STEAM PLAY
San Francisco

COMP-Milwaukee


20* Oak/Minn Under
20* Sea/CWS Over
20* NYY
20* Det
20* Pitt/StL Under
 
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the duke

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EZ WINNERS

2 STAR: (952) MILWAUKEE (-1.5)(+$110) over Houston
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $220)

2 STAR: (974) BALTIMORE (+$116) over Boston
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $232)

2 STAR: (953) WASHINGTON (+$220) over Philadelphia
(Listing Balester and Myers)
(Risking $200 to win $440)

2 STAR: (978) TAMPA BAY (-$120) over LA Angels
(Listing Garza only)
(Risking $240 to win $200)

2 STAR: (980) TEXAS (-$122) over Detroit
(Listing Millwood only)
(Risking $244 to win 4200)

2 STAR: (966) SAN FRANCISCO (-$126) over Florida
(Listing Cain only)
(Risking $252 to win $200)
 

the duke

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NSA

20* Boston
10* Tampa Bay
10* San Deigo Under
10* Mets
10* Toronto
10* Florida
 

Spud82

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On The Beach
KELSO STURGEON

High Rollers Club

15 unit - Philadelphia RL

Best Bets Club

10 unit Arizona
4 unit St. Louis RL
3 unit Texas /Det Over
 

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Spud Gives us more


John Ryan


Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: 118

Baltimore Orioles

Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Baltimore ? Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-8 making 26.7 units for 81% since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is an average hitting team batting = .265 to .279 and with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games and is now facing a poor AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA>=6.20. Boston starter Buchholz has not won since coming off the DL July 11th; he is 0-5 with 1 no decision and has allowed a minimum of 3 ER in each of those starts. Over his last 3 starts he has been shelled to the tune of 8.22 ERA and a 1.826 WHIP and has allowed 5 home runs in just 15.3 IP. This season Baltimore is 7-2 making 6 units revenging 4 or more straight losses versus opponent in last 2 years. Orioles starter Waters is certainly the better the starter in this matchup. The southpaw held the Angels to one hit in eight shutout innings in his winning debut. Five days later, Texas scored four times in the first, but he still managed to get through four innings. In his most recent start, Waters shut out the Tigers through four. Boston?s bullpen is really struggling of late posting a 6.75 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP allowing 30 hits in the past 7 games spanning 22.7 IP. In divisional games the bullpen has done poorly too, sporting a 5.16 ERA in 122 IP. Last, this is one of the strongest plays I have seen generated by the AiS in several seasons. This play ranks among the top-25 strongest on my All-time list spanning 15+ seasons. Given the 15* grading, there is no advantage in playing a parlay with the UNDER. I suggest just sticking with the discipline of wagering 15* on Baltimore and 3* on the UNDER. Thank you very much for purchasing this double guaranteed play and best of luck to us.



Wizard of Odds

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, August 20, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: Are you looking for a "Sure Thing" today in Baseball? Well today is your LUCKY Day as the Wizard of Odds has just what you are looking for and it is the TOP RATED LATE STEAM BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER and you can get it right now for just $35! You are GUARANTEED to win this game or you will not be charged! We are 63-26 in Baseball this year and we are currently on a 36-13 run with all selections! 8/20/2008

TOP RATED LATE STEAM BASEBALL TOTALS WINNER
OVER 9 Kansas City and Cleveland 7:05 EST



Rick George

Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, August 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: The Gemline won again last night, did you? Rick George is on fire again on this site (just like riding a bike). Tonight in MLB I have another big 7* DIAMOND PLAY GEM which is all yours for only $25 pay after you win. 8/20/2008

7* #961 San Diego-Arizona UNDER 7 (9:40edt)
Good matchup here, Peavy has been under in 65% of his starts while Haren struggled a couple games back but seemed to get it in gear last start and has a 2.18 ERA in 3 starts vs SD, banking on another strong game from Haren tonight. Thank you and good luck tonight



Jack Clayton


Guaranteed Selections


Date: Wednesday, August 20, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: There's a total on one of Wednesday's baseball games that oddsmakers completely missed. Go inside the numbers and pay ONLY when this 4-Star total goes "over"! 8/19/2008

4* Rockies/Dodgers over (963): LA's offense is cooking with Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez joining Matt Kemp and Jeff Kent. The Dodgers hit four homers off the Milwaukee pitchers, giving them 22 in the 16 games since Manny Ramirez joined the team. That's 1.37 homers per game, more than twice the 0.68 homers per game the team averaged before Ramirez's arrival. "Knowing that Manny is in the middle of our lineup certainly makes it a little tougher for the other team to take liberties with us," Manager Joe Torre said. "Manny is basically here to make it tougher to get through the middle of the lineup." LA is on a 9-5 over the total run and gets to tee off Colorado starter Jeff Francis (5.74 ERA). His ERA is 6.23 his last 3 starts. Colorado's offense, however, has been playing well of late and LA starter Chad Billingsley has a 6.46 ERA against them. This total is too low, play the Rockies/Dodgers over the total
 

the duke

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King Creole

MLB Total
double-dime bet954 PHI / 953 WAS Over 9 BetUS
Analysis: 2** OVER THE TOTAL / WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / 7:05et

2** OVER THE TOTAL / BOSTON RED SOX @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES / 7:05et

1* OVER THE TOTAL / ATLANTA BRAVES @ NEW YORK METS / 7:10et

There are some fantastic "OVER" Umpires working on the Wednesday schedule... and we will ride three of them in particularly HOT recent form. In the Washington / Philadelphia game, ED RAPUANO will be 'behind the dish'. His YTD record in games he has umped is 16-8-2 O/U on the season. A solid overall percentage of 67%. But we can do better. He's gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U In his last 5 games... with average combined runs at 13.8. He has notched 11 or more total runs in EVERY one of those 5 games. He's also gone 6-1 O/U on Wednesdays... and 9-2-1 O/U In ALL National League games this year.

In the Boston / Baltimore game will be a guy that we have been on in each of his last 6 games. ALFONSO MARQUEZ will be 'behind the dish' in Baltimore this evening. His YTD record stands at 16-9-1 O/U. It's what he has done since the beginning of July that really has me excited. he's 'only' gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U In his last 9 games since May 1st. Average combined runs throughout his big streak is 14.1. He's had exceptional OVER success in American League games, going 10-2 O/U so far in the 2008 season... and 18-5 O/U in the last 2 years. We also note that he is 3-1-1 O/U in his last 5 Red Sox games and 4-1-1 O/U in his last 6 Oriole games.

The Atlanta/ New York Met game features a relative newcomer in ANGEL CAMPOS. His record thus far in 2008 stands at 13-5 O/U.... with an average of 11.3 combined runs per game. He's on a HOT run of his own as EACH of his last 5 games have gone 'OVER' the Total. Those 5 games have seen combined run totals of 12, 14, 20, 17, and 13. That's an average of 15.2 RPG! In National League games for the year, his record stands at 10-2 O/U. And he's also 10-3 O/U in 'Righty vs Righty' pitching matchups.



ASA


8/20/2008
7:05:00 PM OVER 11.5 RUNS,TEXAS RANGERS (Millwood)
-vs- Detroit Tigers (Robertson)
1* (Regular Play) OVER the total in Texas vs Detroit @ 8:05 ET -

Millwood vs Robertson ? Residing in Texas, it is only natural for me to pay a little extra attention to Rangers games ? although my passion is for the Philadelphia teams as the Rickenbach family is from Pennsylvania?however, I digress here so back to the key point: From watching each of the first two games of this series it is plain to see that these are two of the most potent lineups in baseball PLUS two of the shakiest bullpens in the majors. Yes, this total may seem ?scary? at 11.5 but, simply put, the odds maker can not set an accurate number on this game. The fact is that these games are just getting ?nuts? in the latter innings and we feel a 13 or more would have been better suited for this game. There is no reason that either team should fall short of six runs here and that means we?d be guaranteed of no worse than a 7-6 game! Why the expectation for all the runs here? Each of the Tigers last three games have flown over the total and they?ve averaged nearly 18 runs per game! As for the Rangers, each of their last three games have flown over the total and the average runs scored is over 13 per game! What we?ve witnessed in these games is that, as usual, the hitters are seeing the ball very well at Rangers Ballpark and, as usual, the ball is carrying very well in Arlington. As long as we can again keep the rain away from Rangers Ballpark, most is expected before and after this game, then we should be in good shape for another game with plenty of fireworks tonight. Both of these bullpens have been shaky in this series. The Tigers and Rangers bullpens have combined to allow an amazing 15 runs in the first two games of this series. They haven?t been helped by poor fielding but the fact is they aren?t able to get key outs either. This allows for more late inning shenanigans tonight in Arlington but we probably won?t even need them. That?s because the two starters tonight should help insure that this one gets over the total by the middle innings! Kevin Millwood of the Rangers is simply not healthy and, therefore, he?s not effective. Nate Robertson of the Tigers is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in his last four starts. He got hammered by Tampa Bay on Friday in his first start after coming off of the disabled list and he allowed four homers in that game right here at Rangers Ballpark! This is Millwood?s first start against them this season and he does have some decent career numbers against the Tigers. However, as always, it?s the more recent numbers that are most important and Millwood faced Detroit twice last season and he lost to the Tigers both times and compiled an ugly 9.31 ERA against them. The only hope for Millwood tonight is plenty of run support from his teammates and that is quite likely to occur with Robertson on the mound for Detroit. The Tigers southpaw is struggling badly again as he has just one win in his last ten starts. His most recent outing was another bad one as he allowed five runs on eight hits and five walks in just 5.1 innings of work against the Orioles. Even more concerning for Robertson is the fact that this rough outing versus Baltimore occurred at home; now he?s back on the road where he?s struggled even more this season. In fact, the Detroit left-hander, has a sky-high 16.55 ERA in his three road starts since the All Star break. The last time Robertson made a start at Rangers Ballpark he didn?t even record an out. The first six batters all reached base and all six came around to score as Robertson left the game in the first inning without recording a single out! Overall this season he has a 7.59 ERA on the road and teams have pounded him at a .340 clip. It?s highly unlikely that any of those numbers will be improved today and, with both hurlers getting pounded PLUS two weak bullpens PLUS two powerful lineups, this should be THE Slugfest Wednesday! Play OVER the total in Texas as a regular selection.



Jimmy Moore


Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, August 20, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed: Join Jimmy on Wednesday night for a BIG TOTALS WINNER going for ONLY $20! It's baseball action at it's best and you won't pay one nickel until after you win with Jimmy. I know football is coming soon but don't miss out on this big winner on the bases on Wednesday. 8/19/2008

#961-#962 4* San Diego - Arizona UNDER 7 -110 (9:40 edt)
I know this is a low total but look at this pitching matchup: Haren and his 2.96 ERA against Peavy and his even better 2.61 ERA. Both of these pitchers regularly go at least 7 innings keeping the bull pens fresh and allowing to go straight from starter to closer. This being a national league game also helps getting the pitchers at the plate one of every nine times and with these starters the managers will be reluctant to pinch hit for them until very late. Play the under in the valley of the sun. Thank you and good luck.


50 Cent you the man
 

the duke

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AJ Apollo

MLB 3* Baltimore Orioles (Buchholz vs Waters)

MLB 3* Atlanta Braves (Jurrjens vs Pelfrey)




Sports Pro Unlimited

5 KC
 

the duke

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BIG AL

MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH BLOWOUT -- Wednesday
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians



Lenny Del Gen
io

20* AL Total of the Month
Play Over Detroit/Texas at 8:05 ET
 

the duke

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Erin Rynning ER Sports

MLB Playmaker: Tampa Bay/LA Angels under 8.5
 
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