THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Kansas State (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ATS)
High-flying Kansas State treks to Papa John?s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville to take on the Cardinals in a non-conference showdown.
The Wildcats haven?t been challenged in the first two weeks of the season, dominating North Texas and Montana State by a combined score 114-16. Kansas State?s fast start to 2008 is in sharp contrast to its freefall at the end of last season, when the team dropped its final four games (0-4 ATS) by an average of 21? points per contest. But the improvement in QB Josh Freeman has ignited the offense, as the junior has accounted for nine touchdowns (five passing, four rushing) and has completed 76 percent of his throws for 520 yards with no interceptions.
Louisville opened the season with a disappointing 27-2 home loss to instate rival Kentucky, falling as a 3?-point favorite, but rebounded to crush Tennessee Tech 51-10 on Sept. 6 in a non-lined contest. The Cardinals? defense, which was 84th in the nation last season, is fourth so far this year allowing just 193 yards per game. However, new QB Hunter Cantwell has struggled to this point, completing just 53 percent of this throws for 355 yards, two TDs and three INTs.
Cantwell did lead Louisville to a 24-6 win at Kansas State back in 2006 when he started in place of an injured Brian Brohm. He completed 18-of-26 passes for 173 yards with a TD and an INT, as Louisville covered as a 14-point road chalk.
Kansas State has been tough early in the season in recent years, going 24-11 ATS in its last 35 September contests. The Wildcats are also 4-1 ATS in their last five after a bye week. Otherwise the ATS numbers all negative for K-State, including 5-12 on the road, 5-13 in non-conference games and 1-4 overall.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS following their last seven bye weeks, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-5 at home, 1-4 in non-conference play and 1-4 following a straight-up win.
For K-State, the over is on streaks of 12-4 overall in lined action, 22-8 on the road, 9-3 on grass and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Louisville has topped the total in four straight games following a bye week and seven of 10 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee (83-68) at Chicago Cubs (91-58)
The Cubs will try to make it six in a row over the Brewers when they send Jason Marquis (10-8, 4.36 ERA) to the mound to face Ben Sheets (13-8, 2.97) at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs scored a 5-4 win on Tuesday behind the pitching of Ryan Dempster, and they have won seven of the 11 meetings this season with the Brewers. Despite Chicago?s win last night, the road team has still won eight of the 11 contests this year.
Lou Pineilla?s squad is riding a five-game winning streak and is on additional hot runs of 30-14 overall, 51-21 at Wrigley, 10-2 on Wednesdays and 21-9 in Marquis? last 30 home starts.
Milwaukee came up short in Dale Sveum?s debut as interim manager Tuesday, and the Brewers have now lost 12 of their last 15 overall, including eight of their last nine and five in a row. They trail the Mets by a half-game in the N.L. wild-card race and are basically out of the N.L. Central contest, trailing the Cubs by nine games.
Sheets is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA on the road in 2008. Milwaukee has struggled lately with Sheets on the hill, losing six of his last nine, even though he?s blanked the opposition in four of those contests. On Thursday, the veteran right-hander gave up five runs on nine hits in Philadelphia, losing 6-3.
Sheets is 10-8 with a 3.97 ERA in 25 career starts against the Cubs, but he got pounded back on July 29, allowing six runs on 11 hits in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 loss.
Marquis is 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his last three outings and held the Reds to two runs on five hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 14-9 win in Cincinnati in his most recent start back on Sept. 6. In 16 career appearances against Milwaukee, Marquis is 5-7 with a 4.27 ERA, and in his lone outing against the Brewers this season, he allowed five runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 10-7 loss back on April 29.
Milwaukee is just 1-4 in Sheets last five outings against teams with a winning record, but 6-2 in his last eight against the N.L. Central and 14-6 in his last 20 on the highway. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 17-8 in their last 25 with Marquis facing division foes.
The over is 5-0-3 in the Brewers last eight overall, 6-2-2 in their last 10 on the road and 18-8-1 when Sheets pitches against division rivals, but otherwise the under is on runs of 6-2 in Sheets? last eight overall and 14-6-5 in the Brewers? last 25 versus right-handed pitching. For Chicago, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 against right-handed pitching and 5-2 at Wrigley.
Finally, the over is 21-8-4 in the last 33 series meeting between these rivals and 5-2 in Sheets? last seven outings against the Cubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (89-62) at Tampa Bay (89-60)
The Rays pulled back into sole possession of first place in the A.L. East with a 2-1 win over the Red Sox on Tuesday and in the rubber match of the series tonight, Boston sends knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (9-10, 3.92 ERA) to the mound opposite Tampa?s Matt Garza (11-9, 3.60) at Tropicana Field.
Boston prevailed 13-5 in Monday?s series opener to pull even in the division race but lost a thriller on Tuesday when the Rays? Dioner Navarro singled with the bases loaded in the ninth inning to get the 2-1 win. Tampa Bay has won seven of eight home games against the Red Sox in 2008, and the home team is 15-3 in the 18 matchups between these two this season.
The Red Sox have won 15 of their last 22 dating back to Aug. 24, going 6-3 on the road during this stretch. Additionally, Terry Francona?s team is on runs of 11-5 in divisional games, 7-3 against right-handed starters and 10-4 on Wednesdays, but just 3-8 in Wakefield?s last 11 roadies and 3-13 in his last 16 when facing a team with a winning mark.
Tampa is just 4-7 in its last 11 overall, but the Rays are on runs of 50-15 at home, 21-10 against right-handed starters and 5-2 when Garza toes the rubber at home against teams with a winning record.
Wakefield is coming off his best start of the season, as he blanked the Blue Jays for eight innings on three hits in a 7-0 home win. However, the veteran right-hander is just 3-6 with a 4.67 ERA on the road and 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three overall. On the bright side, Wakefield has owned the Rays in his career, going 19-4 in 40 games with a 3.10 ERA. The Red Sox have lost both his starts against Tampa this season, but he?s allowed just six runs on 11 hits over 13 innings in the two outings.
Garza is 7-3 with a 2.74 ERA in front of the home fans, but the Rays have lost two of his last three at home and four of his last five overall. On Saturday, the right-hander gave up three runs on six hits in five innings of a 6-5 loss in New York. Garza is 3-1 with a 3.54 ERA in five career starts against Boston, and this year the Rays are 2-1 in his three outings versus the Red Sox (2-0 at home).
The over is 8-4 in Boston?s last 12 road games, but the under dominates all other aspects for the Red Sox, including runs of 10-3 against right-handed starters, 26-12-4 when Wakefield pitches on the road and 7-2 when he pitches on Wednesdays. Meanwhile the over is 12-5 in Tampa?s last 17 overall, 7-1 in its last eight at home, 10-3 in its last 13 against right-handed starters and 10-3 in the third game of a series.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on streaks of 6-1 when Wakefield faces the Rays and 5-0 when he pitches in Tampa.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
