Dave Malinsky
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
4* CINCINNATI over ST. LOUIS
4* ST. LOUIS/CINCINNATI Under
We want to get behind Aaron Harang here. And with his 4-16/4.96 in the pitching forms, we are among the only ones looking in that direction. That is part of why a St. Louis team mired in an 0-6 slide is a road favorite, and also why we are seeing a full ?9? for this Total with two slumping offenses involved. So we will play both Harang options in this game, and use some sequencing notions to our advantage.
The Cardinals have been held to three runs or less five times in their losing streak, including four deuces. They have scored more than five runs one time in their last 11 games, and in that one only reached six. So here is how it works. If the Cardinals score five runs or less, we can not get hurt much. A 5-4 St. Louis victory leaves us with an 0-1-1, but any other score with the Cardinals on five is no worse than a split. Make the St. Louis production four or less, which we project, and there is a good chance to make a serious profit.
Which takes us to Harang. The Cincinnati right-hander has been one of the most consistent performers in the Major Leagues in recent years, including a combined 32-17/3.75 in the 2006-07 seasons. So does the fact that his current ERA is more than a full run above that cause us concern? No. The problem is that he has had to battle through an injury that was worse than originally thought, which led to an awful beginning to the season. That works for us, because his early numbers were so bad that there are not enough innings left in the season to correct them. As such, an outstanding current run has gone un-noticed by the markets. He has worked to a solid 2.45 over his last five outings, a span in which he has allowed only 28 hits in 33 innings, while sporting a solid ratio of 26 strikeouts vs. only nine walks. When competitors like him get on a roll we can confidently back them to make up for lost time, and the Harang we expect to see tonight is one that will pitch as though the playoffs were on the line. With the bullpen well-set behind him, we can confidently call for the slumping Cardinal offense to be held in check again, and by working both ends of this equation a weak Cincinnati lineup is reduced to being a lesser concern.
