Ben Burns
NBA
UNDER Magic/Sonics (209 or better)
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Sonics and Magic to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Sonics to finish below yesterday's big number and I feel that tonight's total is too high once again. Note that the Sonics have already seen the UNDER go 3-0 this season when playing a home game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. The Magic, who have seen their road games average 198 points per game, rarely see over/under lines this high. In fact, this is the highest total they have seen all season. Looking back to past seasons and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-11 the last 28 times that the Magic played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. Note that the line was 209 when these teams met at Orlando two weeks ago and they combined for a mere 179 points. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 the last four series meetings. Those four games averaged just 180.75 points. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight series meetings. Additionally, dating back to last season, the Sonics have seen the UNDER go 10-2 the last 12 times that they played the second of back to back games, including a 3-1 mark so far this season. The last time that the Sonics played the second of back to back games, they managed just 84 points in a 100-84 loss at Charlotte. That game stayed below the total by 15+ points. The last time that they played a home game, after having played the previous night, the Sonics and Grizzlies combined for 203 points, in game that also stayed below the number by 15 points. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. *Blue Chip
PORTLAND (-6 or better)
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. I feel that the situation strongly favors the home team. While the Blazers had last night off, the Pacers come off a hard-fought 112-110 win in the high altitude of Denver. While the Pacers did win at New Orleans last week, when playing the second of back to back games, they are still a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 times in that situation. This is worse than a typical back to back situation though as the Pacers are also playing their sixth game in the past nine nights. That's a gruelling nine-day stretch for any team and arguably more so for a team that likes to run up and down the floor as much as this year's Pacers squad. Note that even with last night's win, the Pacers are still just 5-15 their last 20 road games. After having consecutive nights off, the Blazers came up short vs. a solid Orlando club on Monday. Despite that loss, they're still a healthy 5-2 at home for the season. Look for the Blazers, 17-8 the last 25 times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 200 to 204.5 range, to have the much fresher legs tonight and for that to result in a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite
NCAA BB
PENN STATE (-3 or better)
Game: Virginia Tech vs. Penn State Game Time: 11/28/2007 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Penn State Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. The Nittany Lions didn't fare too well at the Old Spice Classic. However, they've gone 2-0 at home, winning by an average score of 83.5 to 52. Granted, the competition was rather weak. However, that's not the players fault and the three tournament losses have given us excellent line value here. The Nittany Lions bring back four starters back and a relatively talented recruiting class. Penn State has an outstanding 1-2 scoring punch in 6-5 senior swingman Geary Claxton, a potential NBA draft pick, and 6-5 junior power forward Jamelle Cornley. Claxton averaged 16.3 points and 8.0 rebounds last season and even more is expected this year, while Cornley is coming off a season in which he scored 11.4 points and grabbed 5.7 rebounds a game. So far this season, the pair are averaging 33.2 points per game while grabbing a combined 15.2 rebounds. Joining that duo are two more returning starters in 6-3 junior shooting guard Danny Morrissey and 6-11 senior forward Brandon Hassell. Hassell currently is grabbing 6.6 rebounds per game while Morrissey is chipping in a healthy 8.2 points per game. The Hokies are a talented opponent. However, as coach Seth Greenberg had to say: "We're just extremely young." The Hokies are a terrible 0-7 SU/ATS the last seven times that they listed as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Look for their inexperience to show tonight as the Nittany Lions bounce back from their poor tournament showing with a convincing victory for the home fans. *CBB Blowout GOM
NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/28/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Recent results have given us solid value with the home team here. That may sound strange when the price is this steep. However, when we consider that the Wild were -200, -250 and most recently -340 the last three times they were a host in this series, tonight's price doesn't seem nearly so outrageous. Note that the Wild won all three of those games, winning by a combined score of 10-4. In fact, this is roughly the same price that the Wild were when they traveled to Phoenix last month - and they're a MUCH better team at home. Note that Minnesota also won that game. The Coyotes come in as the "hotter" team. However, in my opinion, the Wild are still the significantly "better" team. They haven't lost three straight regulation games in a row here in almost two years and they'll be extremely hungry to get back on track tonight. The Coyotes are a dismal 34-55 the last 89 times they faced a team which defeated them in their last game. While they are getting better, I don't feel that they're ready to upset this talented and highly motivated Minnesota team at what remains one of the toughest venues in the league. Minnesota coach Jacques Lemaire has challenged his team to play on a higher level and I look for them to give a huge effort, returning to their winning ways at this rink. *Big Chalk GOM
NBA
UNDER Magic/Sonics (209 or better)
Game: Orlando Magic vs. Seattle SuperSonics Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Sonics and Magic to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Sonics to finish below yesterday's big number and I feel that tonight's total is too high once again. Note that the Sonics have already seen the UNDER go 3-0 this season when playing a home game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. The Magic, who have seen their road games average 198 points per game, rarely see over/under lines this high. In fact, this is the highest total they have seen all season. Looking back to past seasons and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-11 the last 28 times that the Magic played a game with an over/under line of 210 or greater. Note that the line was 209 when these teams met at Orlando two weeks ago and they combined for a mere 179 points. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 the last four series meetings. Those four games averaged just 180.75 points. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 7-1 the last eight series meetings. Additionally, dating back to last season, the Sonics have seen the UNDER go 10-2 the last 12 times that they played the second of back to back games, including a 3-1 mark so far this season. The last time that the Sonics played the second of back to back games, they managed just 84 points in a 100-84 loss at Charlotte. That game stayed below the total by 15+ points. The last time that they played a home game, after having played the previous night, the Sonics and Grizzlies combined for 203 points, in game that also stayed below the number by 15 points. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. *Blue Chip
PORTLAND (-6 or better)
Game: Indiana Pacers vs. Portland Trail Blazers Game Time: 11/28/2007 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Reason: I'm laying the points with PORTLAND. I feel that the situation strongly favors the home team. While the Blazers had last night off, the Pacers come off a hard-fought 112-110 win in the high altitude of Denver. While the Pacers did win at New Orleans last week, when playing the second of back to back games, they are still a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 times in that situation. This is worse than a typical back to back situation though as the Pacers are also playing their sixth game in the past nine nights. That's a gruelling nine-day stretch for any team and arguably more so for a team that likes to run up and down the floor as much as this year's Pacers squad. Note that even with last night's win, the Pacers are still just 5-15 their last 20 road games. After having consecutive nights off, the Blazers came up short vs. a solid Orlando club on Monday. Despite that loss, they're still a healthy 5-2 at home for the season. Look for the Blazers, 17-8 the last 25 times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 200 to 204.5 range, to have the much fresher legs tonight and for that to result in a convincing win and cover. *Personal Favorite
NCAA BB
PENN STATE (-3 or better)
Game: Virginia Tech vs. Penn State Game Time: 11/28/2007 9:30:00 PM Prediction: Penn State Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. The Nittany Lions didn't fare too well at the Old Spice Classic. However, they've gone 2-0 at home, winning by an average score of 83.5 to 52. Granted, the competition was rather weak. However, that's not the players fault and the three tournament losses have given us excellent line value here. The Nittany Lions bring back four starters back and a relatively talented recruiting class. Penn State has an outstanding 1-2 scoring punch in 6-5 senior swingman Geary Claxton, a potential NBA draft pick, and 6-5 junior power forward Jamelle Cornley. Claxton averaged 16.3 points and 8.0 rebounds last season and even more is expected this year, while Cornley is coming off a season in which he scored 11.4 points and grabbed 5.7 rebounds a game. So far this season, the pair are averaging 33.2 points per game while grabbing a combined 15.2 rebounds. Joining that duo are two more returning starters in 6-3 junior shooting guard Danny Morrissey and 6-11 senior forward Brandon Hassell. Hassell currently is grabbing 6.6 rebounds per game while Morrissey is chipping in a healthy 8.2 points per game. The Hokies are a talented opponent. However, as coach Seth Greenberg had to say: "We're just extremely young." The Hokies are a terrible 0-7 SU/ATS the last seven times that they listed as road underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Look for their inexperience to show tonight as the Nittany Lions bounce back from their poor tournament showing with a convincing victory for the home fans. *CBB Blowout GOM
NHL
MINNESOTA
Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. Minnesota Wild Game Time: 11/28/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Wild Reason: I'm laying the price with MINNESOTA. Recent results have given us solid value with the home team here. That may sound strange when the price is this steep. However, when we consider that the Wild were -200, -250 and most recently -340 the last three times they were a host in this series, tonight's price doesn't seem nearly so outrageous. Note that the Wild won all three of those games, winning by a combined score of 10-4. In fact, this is roughly the same price that the Wild were when they traveled to Phoenix last month - and they're a MUCH better team at home. Note that Minnesota also won that game. The Coyotes come in as the "hotter" team. However, in my opinion, the Wild are still the significantly "better" team. They haven't lost three straight regulation games in a row here in almost two years and they'll be extremely hungry to get back on track tonight. The Coyotes are a dismal 34-55 the last 89 times they faced a team which defeated them in their last game. While they are getting better, I don't feel that they're ready to upset this talented and highly motivated Minnesota team at what remains one of the toughest venues in the league. Minnesota coach Jacques Lemaire has challenged his team to play on a higher level and I look for them to give a huge effort, returning to their winning ways at this rink. *Big Chalk GOM
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