- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 124-87-6 (+44.8)
OU: 67-59-2 (+0.8)
ML dogs: 5-8 (+3.6)
I have been revising chemistry papers pretty much non-stop in my waking hours for the last two days, so didn't have time to post... hope everyone had a good run! Lot's of text here, so pardon if I made any mistakes.
How does the all-star break affect teams? One would think that those participating in the events this weekend may already be a bit mentally checked out... This could be especially relevant for road weary teams, and one very special team from Houston that will be hosting the events. I?m sure there are plenty of parties and other festivities to think about. Trends seem to support this mentality. Since the 2005 season, road teams playing in their last game before the all-star break are 21-41 SU (-6.4 ppg) and 15-38-1 ATS (Houston, Denver, Toronto, Portland, Sacramento, Utah). If you add in the fact that none of these teams are rested, the trend sharpens to 12-34 SU (-7.4) and 12-33-1 ATS. In conference games, where the opponent may be even more concentrated on getting a win, these teams are 7-31 SU (-9.2 ppg) and 6-31-1 ATS (Houston, Toronto, Portland, Sacramento, Utah). Finally, teams playing on the road on no rest that are coming off a home game are 2-17 SU (-10.8 ppg) and 2-17 ATS against rested opponents before the all star break (Toronto, Utah). Of course, these trends greatly influenced my thinking today, so hopefully they hold true!!
Minnesota Timberwolves
Utah may have a hard time concentrating today after a huge win against the Thunder last night. Teams coming off a home win against a team with a 70% or greater winning record are just 3-13 SU (-10.1 ppg) and 5-11 ATS when playing on no rest as a road dog against a team with a losing record. Utah?s personal lack of mental toughness is reflected in the fact that they are just 3-7 SU and ATS in the last three seasons following a SU win as a dog when playing on no rest.
Since the 2005 season, teams seeking home revenge for a double digit road loss are 55-20 SU (+7.5) and 45-28 ATS when they are coming off a road win and their opponent is coming off a home game. The Wolves are due for a good stretch - I don?t think they are nearly as bad as their record indicates, and they can get it going tonight against a comparable team.
New Orleans Hornets
Since the 2003 season, teams playing as a home favorite coming off a road game that they won by double digits are 120-21 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 82-58-1 ATS against a team coming off a road game that they lost by double digits. If their opponent is unrested, the trend sharpens to 49-7 SU (+13.1 ppg) and 36-20 ATS.
Teams playing on the road in at least their third road game are 21-65 SU (-7.3 ppg) when playing on no rest in the last game of a road trip since the 2001 season when they failed to cover at least their last two games. Portland has had a tough schedule as of late, playing three really good teams in their last four, and their defensive lapses have been increasingly noticeable by game to game. I don?t see them recovering any poise in this game, playing on no rest against a team that recently has liked to push the pace. Lillard may be looking forward to his first all star experience in the rookie challenge, and after last night?s fourth quarter debacle, I don?t see them getting up for this one.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nuggets are playing their fourth game in five days, all on the road. They are coming off a running game against the Cavs, then a triple overtime game, and finally a one possession loss to the Raptors. In other words, they have played super hard in all three. I like to fade road teams that lost SU but covered the spread in their last two road games, because it reflects their effort with no reward. If Jason Terry hadn?t thrown in a last second meaningless bucket in the Celtics game, the Nugs would have pushed that, but for propriety?s sake, I built the trend this way - teams coming off two road losses where they won or lost ATS by less than 2 as dogs are 22-91 SU (-9.1 ppg) and 43-68-2 ATS when playing on no rest when playing on the road.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers will try to seek revenge for two losses this season on the road today against the struggling Bucks, who are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven. Both of these teams have struggled offensively. Teams coming off of three games where they shot less than 42% from the field are 50-79 SU (-3.1 ppg) and 75-52-2 ATS (average line -5.2) on the road when both they and their opponent are coming off a loss. Sometimes, teams need a change of scenery to break out of a shooting slump.
The Bucks don?t get this change of scenery for their recent offensive woes. They rely too heavily on jump shooting. Their inside presence is lacking. This season, they are 7-18 SU and 6-18 ATS if they shoot less than 50% from the field and are outscored in the paint. This has happened in 9 of their last 14 games, and 10 out of 17 under Boylan. Tonight they will face a Philly squad that is the fifth best in the league at defending the paint, and they give up only 44.8% from the field on average. The Sixers are coming off a horrible defensive outing vs. the Clippers, where they allowed them to shoot over 55% from the field. The Sixers have been in this spot already once before in this season, and in the next game they won by 19 as a dog and only allowed their opponent to score 80 points on 39.2% from the field. Teams playing as a road dog against a team that shot worse than 40% from the field in their last game, when they allowed better than 55% are 26-15-1 ATS (expect a better defensive effort). This game is going to come down to who can play better defense, and I think that Philly is up to the task.
Dallas Mavericks
Teams playing their fourth game in 5 nights since the 2001 season on no rest as a road dog are 8-47 SU (-10.3 ppg) and 20-31-4 ATS after a game as a road dog where they lost but covered the spread. In these games, they give up an average of 104 ppg.
Teams that beat an opponent on the road already in the same season are 42-5 SU (+12.6 ppg) and 30-17 ATS since the 2009 season, averaging 106 ppg, when playing as a home favorite against an unrested opponent that gave up over 100 points in their last game. When teams are playing their third game of the season as a home favorite when they won the last two matchups and scored more than 110 points in each are 63-11 SU (+12.3 ppg) and 43-28-3 ATS, scoring 113.8 ppg, since the 2001 season. If you add in that they are coming off a loss as a favorite, teams are 13-0 SU (+14.8 ppg) and 8-3-2 ATS.
The Mavericks as a home favorite this season are 8-1 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 6-3 ATS when playing an unrested opponent, averaging 108.8 ppg. The Kings on no rest this season as a road dog give up 106.4 ppg. Teams that average over 100 ppg are 85-18 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 62-39-2 ATS as a home favorite since the 2009 season when their opponent is unrested and coming off two games where they gave up over 100 points in each, scoring an average of 108.5 ppg.
Teams that average more than 100 points per game on the season are 16-2 SU (+12.2 ppg) and 14-4 ATS since the 2010 season when playing as a home favorite against an unrested opponent that is on a three or more game OVER streak (these games are also 4-14 UNDER). Since the 2008 season, teams in this situation have averaged 108 ppg.
Teams that have covered their last three games are 4-13 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 8-25-2 ATS since the 2005 season when playing as a road dog on no rest after a road loss, when their next game is at home, giving up an average of 106.4 ppg. The Kings on the road are just 1-13 SU (-16.6) and 4-9-1 ATS, giving up 110.7 ppg since the 2008 season when playing on no rest. I believe that playing on no rest is a lot harder for younger teams that older teams, because it speaks more to mental than physical toughness, which is why teams like the Kings struggle while teams like the Spurs have better success.
I expect Dallas to score easily...and a lot of points tonight.
Los Angeles Clippers
Teams before the all start break playing on no rest when their opponent still has one more game before the break are 1-10 SU (-14.5 ppg) and 1-10 ATS (mentally checked out, while their opponent is still engaged) since the 2000 season. As a dog, teams are -17.2 ppg, with no wins. The Clippers will play the Lakers tomorrow, and teams playing their first of back to back games at home before the all-star break are 9-1 SU (+13 ppg) and 8-2 ATS when their opponent is playing their last game before the break. Since the 2000 season, teams coming off of two double digit covers on the road are 41-2 SU (+12.5 ppg) and 28-14-1 ATS when playing as a home favorite of 8 or more. In other words, they are playing great, and this carries over to a big home win.
The Rockets are just 1-6 SU and ATS on the road this year when they score less than 95 points, and they are averaging only 96.3 ppg on no rest on the road this year, which is 6.3 points under their road average. The Clippers play great defense at home, only allowing opponents 92.4 ppg, and I think they will be up to the task of holding the Rockets under 95 tonight.
Mavericks TT OVER 109.5
Clippers -10
Wolves -2
Nets PK
Hornets -5
Philly +5.5
Wizards UNDER 191
Good luck...
OU: 67-59-2 (+0.8)
ML dogs: 5-8 (+3.6)
I have been revising chemistry papers pretty much non-stop in my waking hours for the last two days, so didn't have time to post... hope everyone had a good run! Lot's of text here, so pardon if I made any mistakes.
How does the all-star break affect teams? One would think that those participating in the events this weekend may already be a bit mentally checked out... This could be especially relevant for road weary teams, and one very special team from Houston that will be hosting the events. I?m sure there are plenty of parties and other festivities to think about. Trends seem to support this mentality. Since the 2005 season, road teams playing in their last game before the all-star break are 21-41 SU (-6.4 ppg) and 15-38-1 ATS (Houston, Denver, Toronto, Portland, Sacramento, Utah). If you add in the fact that none of these teams are rested, the trend sharpens to 12-34 SU (-7.4) and 12-33-1 ATS. In conference games, where the opponent may be even more concentrated on getting a win, these teams are 7-31 SU (-9.2 ppg) and 6-31-1 ATS (Houston, Toronto, Portland, Sacramento, Utah). Finally, teams playing on the road on no rest that are coming off a home game are 2-17 SU (-10.8 ppg) and 2-17 ATS against rested opponents before the all star break (Toronto, Utah). Of course, these trends greatly influenced my thinking today, so hopefully they hold true!!
Minnesota Timberwolves
Utah may have a hard time concentrating today after a huge win against the Thunder last night. Teams coming off a home win against a team with a 70% or greater winning record are just 3-13 SU (-10.1 ppg) and 5-11 ATS when playing on no rest as a road dog against a team with a losing record. Utah?s personal lack of mental toughness is reflected in the fact that they are just 3-7 SU and ATS in the last three seasons following a SU win as a dog when playing on no rest.
Since the 2005 season, teams seeking home revenge for a double digit road loss are 55-20 SU (+7.5) and 45-28 ATS when they are coming off a road win and their opponent is coming off a home game. The Wolves are due for a good stretch - I don?t think they are nearly as bad as their record indicates, and they can get it going tonight against a comparable team.
New Orleans Hornets
Since the 2003 season, teams playing as a home favorite coming off a road game that they won by double digits are 120-21 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 82-58-1 ATS against a team coming off a road game that they lost by double digits. If their opponent is unrested, the trend sharpens to 49-7 SU (+13.1 ppg) and 36-20 ATS.
Teams playing on the road in at least their third road game are 21-65 SU (-7.3 ppg) when playing on no rest in the last game of a road trip since the 2001 season when they failed to cover at least their last two games. Portland has had a tough schedule as of late, playing three really good teams in their last four, and their defensive lapses have been increasingly noticeable by game to game. I don?t see them recovering any poise in this game, playing on no rest against a team that recently has liked to push the pace. Lillard may be looking forward to his first all star experience in the rookie challenge, and after last night?s fourth quarter debacle, I don?t see them getting up for this one.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nuggets are playing their fourth game in five days, all on the road. They are coming off a running game against the Cavs, then a triple overtime game, and finally a one possession loss to the Raptors. In other words, they have played super hard in all three. I like to fade road teams that lost SU but covered the spread in their last two road games, because it reflects their effort with no reward. If Jason Terry hadn?t thrown in a last second meaningless bucket in the Celtics game, the Nugs would have pushed that, but for propriety?s sake, I built the trend this way - teams coming off two road losses where they won or lost ATS by less than 2 as dogs are 22-91 SU (-9.1 ppg) and 43-68-2 ATS when playing on no rest when playing on the road.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers will try to seek revenge for two losses this season on the road today against the struggling Bucks, who are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven. Both of these teams have struggled offensively. Teams coming off of three games where they shot less than 42% from the field are 50-79 SU (-3.1 ppg) and 75-52-2 ATS (average line -5.2) on the road when both they and their opponent are coming off a loss. Sometimes, teams need a change of scenery to break out of a shooting slump.
The Bucks don?t get this change of scenery for their recent offensive woes. They rely too heavily on jump shooting. Their inside presence is lacking. This season, they are 7-18 SU and 6-18 ATS if they shoot less than 50% from the field and are outscored in the paint. This has happened in 9 of their last 14 games, and 10 out of 17 under Boylan. Tonight they will face a Philly squad that is the fifth best in the league at defending the paint, and they give up only 44.8% from the field on average. The Sixers are coming off a horrible defensive outing vs. the Clippers, where they allowed them to shoot over 55% from the field. The Sixers have been in this spot already once before in this season, and in the next game they won by 19 as a dog and only allowed their opponent to score 80 points on 39.2% from the field. Teams playing as a road dog against a team that shot worse than 40% from the field in their last game, when they allowed better than 55% are 26-15-1 ATS (expect a better defensive effort). This game is going to come down to who can play better defense, and I think that Philly is up to the task.
Dallas Mavericks
Teams playing their fourth game in 5 nights since the 2001 season on no rest as a road dog are 8-47 SU (-10.3 ppg) and 20-31-4 ATS after a game as a road dog where they lost but covered the spread. In these games, they give up an average of 104 ppg.
Teams that beat an opponent on the road already in the same season are 42-5 SU (+12.6 ppg) and 30-17 ATS since the 2009 season, averaging 106 ppg, when playing as a home favorite against an unrested opponent that gave up over 100 points in their last game. When teams are playing their third game of the season as a home favorite when they won the last two matchups and scored more than 110 points in each are 63-11 SU (+12.3 ppg) and 43-28-3 ATS, scoring 113.8 ppg, since the 2001 season. If you add in that they are coming off a loss as a favorite, teams are 13-0 SU (+14.8 ppg) and 8-3-2 ATS.
The Mavericks as a home favorite this season are 8-1 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 6-3 ATS when playing an unrested opponent, averaging 108.8 ppg. The Kings on no rest this season as a road dog give up 106.4 ppg. Teams that average over 100 ppg are 85-18 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 62-39-2 ATS as a home favorite since the 2009 season when their opponent is unrested and coming off two games where they gave up over 100 points in each, scoring an average of 108.5 ppg.
Teams that average more than 100 points per game on the season are 16-2 SU (+12.2 ppg) and 14-4 ATS since the 2010 season when playing as a home favorite against an unrested opponent that is on a three or more game OVER streak (these games are also 4-14 UNDER). Since the 2008 season, teams in this situation have averaged 108 ppg.
Teams that have covered their last three games are 4-13 SU (-11.3 ppg) and 8-25-2 ATS since the 2005 season when playing as a road dog on no rest after a road loss, when their next game is at home, giving up an average of 106.4 ppg. The Kings on the road are just 1-13 SU (-16.6) and 4-9-1 ATS, giving up 110.7 ppg since the 2008 season when playing on no rest. I believe that playing on no rest is a lot harder for younger teams that older teams, because it speaks more to mental than physical toughness, which is why teams like the Kings struggle while teams like the Spurs have better success.
I expect Dallas to score easily...and a lot of points tonight.
Los Angeles Clippers
Teams before the all start break playing on no rest when their opponent still has one more game before the break are 1-10 SU (-14.5 ppg) and 1-10 ATS (mentally checked out, while their opponent is still engaged) since the 2000 season. As a dog, teams are -17.2 ppg, with no wins. The Clippers will play the Lakers tomorrow, and teams playing their first of back to back games at home before the all-star break are 9-1 SU (+13 ppg) and 8-2 ATS when their opponent is playing their last game before the break. Since the 2000 season, teams coming off of two double digit covers on the road are 41-2 SU (+12.5 ppg) and 28-14-1 ATS when playing as a home favorite of 8 or more. In other words, they are playing great, and this carries over to a big home win.
The Rockets are just 1-6 SU and ATS on the road this year when they score less than 95 points, and they are averaging only 96.3 ppg on no rest on the road this year, which is 6.3 points under their road average. The Clippers play great defense at home, only allowing opponents 92.4 ppg, and I think they will be up to the task of holding the Rockets under 95 tonight.
Mavericks TT OVER 109.5
Clippers -10
Wolves -2
Nets PK
Hornets -5
Philly +5.5
Wizards UNDER 191
Good luck...
