- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 140-96-7 (+53.8)
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Raptors
The Raptors still have a chance to get into the playoffs, but every game matters for them. After an embarrassing home loss to the Wizards, in which they only scored 32 points in the first half, they need to right themselves offensively, and who better to do it against than the porous Cav?s defense.
The Cavs are coming off a three game road trip. Their last two games were tough - they had a huge comeback and then last minute loss against the Heat, and last night they played a rough physical game against the Bulls, pulling out the upset.
Getting booed at home doesn?t really give you much or any advantage, and the Raptors may actually be glad to get away from Toronto. Tonight they have a chance to assert themselves and improve their team chemistry.
Grizzlies
When the Grizzlies played in Dallas earlier this year, I bet on Dallas. It was a big letdown game for the Grizzlies, and they got destroyed. Now, the situation is completely different, and the Grizzlies get a chance to seek home revenge for an embarrassing loss.
The Mavericks have to be completely deflated after losing two home games as a favorite, and basically blowing the slim chance they held of making the playoffs. Now, they have to go face a tough defensive squad with no rest.
The Grizzlies need this game tonight to keep pace with the Nuggets for home court advantage, and I expect an all out effort on their part.
Magic
There is no magic equation for this game, just a simple fade. The Kings put up a valiant fight last night against the Heat, but ultimately fell short against a ridiculous showing by Lebron.
It would be interesting to see the results of teams coming off an overtime loss of 10 or more, when the final margin was decided by one person, but... I don?t have the stats for that... The Magic suck, but the Kings have no mental toughness, and I think that will be the deciding factor tonight.
Rockets
The Rockets are playing for the last spot in the playoffs. They need this game, big. The Bucks have struggled this season in back to back games, going just 3-10 ATS. Jennings in particular has struggled in back to backs, and he had a poor performance last night, going 3-11 from the field and getting benched in the last three minutes in favor of Redick. I don?t think this is a great spot for the Bucks to try to figure out their team chemistry and for Jennings to rebound. I expect the Rockets to come out full throttle in this game, and I will be surprised if it is close at the end.
Warriors
The Knicks have been struggling since the new year. They are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. The return of Stoudemire and Shumpert has really disrupted their lineup. Teams are starting to figure out the way to beat the Knicks - just leave Kidd and Shumpert open to shoot. When these two share the floor (and they both start), the Knicks have logged under 83.1 points per 100 possessions, which would put them dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. In the month of February, teams have left Shumpert open for almost 90% of his shots, and Kidd for 71% of his. When Kidd has been left open, he still has managed to shoot just 17% from the field on these tries. This allows defenses to help a lot more where it matters - on Melo, Smith, and inside, which is why Melo has been struggling this month as well.
I don?t have trends or many stats to back up this play. I watch the Warriors play a lot - almost every game, and I watched the Knicks play earlier this week. I am basing this play on the will and drive of these teams, and the body language that they exhibit on the court. Both teams play a similar outside game, but they are completely different in their mental toughness, and I will take the 8 points here with the Warriors, who could easily come out with a win tonight.
I realize I have been playing a lot of big favorites recently. I just think it is a time of year when some of these teams are really going to assert themselves. I like almost every other dog on the board, but I'm just not interested in betting big dogs right now. A lot of these crappy teams are going to cover the big spreads this time of year, but I'd rather go for the better matchups than bet those games.
Grizzlies -7.5 x2
Rockets -8 x2
Raptors -3 x2
Warriors +8
Magic PK
Good luck...
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Raptors
The Raptors still have a chance to get into the playoffs, but every game matters for them. After an embarrassing home loss to the Wizards, in which they only scored 32 points in the first half, they need to right themselves offensively, and who better to do it against than the porous Cav?s defense.
The Cavs are coming off a three game road trip. Their last two games were tough - they had a huge comeback and then last minute loss against the Heat, and last night they played a rough physical game against the Bulls, pulling out the upset.
Getting booed at home doesn?t really give you much or any advantage, and the Raptors may actually be glad to get away from Toronto. Tonight they have a chance to assert themselves and improve their team chemistry.
Grizzlies
When the Grizzlies played in Dallas earlier this year, I bet on Dallas. It was a big letdown game for the Grizzlies, and they got destroyed. Now, the situation is completely different, and the Grizzlies get a chance to seek home revenge for an embarrassing loss.
The Mavericks have to be completely deflated after losing two home games as a favorite, and basically blowing the slim chance they held of making the playoffs. Now, they have to go face a tough defensive squad with no rest.
The Grizzlies need this game tonight to keep pace with the Nuggets for home court advantage, and I expect an all out effort on their part.
Magic
There is no magic equation for this game, just a simple fade. The Kings put up a valiant fight last night against the Heat, but ultimately fell short against a ridiculous showing by Lebron.
It would be interesting to see the results of teams coming off an overtime loss of 10 or more, when the final margin was decided by one person, but... I don?t have the stats for that... The Magic suck, but the Kings have no mental toughness, and I think that will be the deciding factor tonight.
Rockets
The Rockets are playing for the last spot in the playoffs. They need this game, big. The Bucks have struggled this season in back to back games, going just 3-10 ATS. Jennings in particular has struggled in back to backs, and he had a poor performance last night, going 3-11 from the field and getting benched in the last three minutes in favor of Redick. I don?t think this is a great spot for the Bucks to try to figure out their team chemistry and for Jennings to rebound. I expect the Rockets to come out full throttle in this game, and I will be surprised if it is close at the end.
Warriors
The Knicks have been struggling since the new year. They are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS against teams with a winning record. The return of Stoudemire and Shumpert has really disrupted their lineup. Teams are starting to figure out the way to beat the Knicks - just leave Kidd and Shumpert open to shoot. When these two share the floor (and they both start), the Knicks have logged under 83.1 points per 100 possessions, which would put them dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. In the month of February, teams have left Shumpert open for almost 90% of his shots, and Kidd for 71% of his. When Kidd has been left open, he still has managed to shoot just 17% from the field on these tries. This allows defenses to help a lot more where it matters - on Melo, Smith, and inside, which is why Melo has been struggling this month as well.
I don?t have trends or many stats to back up this play. I watch the Warriors play a lot - almost every game, and I watched the Knicks play earlier this week. I am basing this play on the will and drive of these teams, and the body language that they exhibit on the court. Both teams play a similar outside game, but they are completely different in their mental toughness, and I will take the 8 points here with the Warriors, who could easily come out with a win tonight.
I realize I have been playing a lot of big favorites recently. I just think it is a time of year when some of these teams are really going to assert themselves. I like almost every other dog on the board, but I'm just not interested in betting big dogs right now. A lot of these crappy teams are going to cover the big spreads this time of year, but I'd rather go for the better matchups than bet those games.
Grizzlies -7.5 x2
Rockets -8 x2
Raptors -3 x2
Warriors +8
Magic PK
Good luck...
Last edited:
opcorn2
