Week 1 NFL Plays

[Nick Douglas]

I will update this thread as I add more later this week. Both were played at SIA.

New England PK over CINCINNATI 330/300 (o/u: 36)

New England is one of the most underrated teams and they should have little trouble with the limited Bengals. I honestly have no idea how the Bengals will stop the pass all year. Justin Smith is still unsigned and the rest of that defensive line is below average. If they decide to blitz Spikes or Foley consistently they could get pressure outside but then who is going to cover the back or tight end coming out of the backfield. Cincy's corners are also suspect as their starters combined for an amazing zero interceptions last year.

Ousting the ineffective Chad Eaton was a great move for the Patriots defense and Richard Seymour at least is strong enough to hold his own against the run up the middle. Having a great linebacking corps with Cox added should at least limit Dillon. The real key here is that Antwain Smith and a vastly improved offensive line should open up things for Brown and Bledsoe. With their schedule, New England has to be thinking playoffs and this is a must-win for that to happen.

Washington +3 over SAN DIEGO 330/300 (o/u: 36)

I love Marty Schottenheimer. I really do. Not only is the man a Hall of Fame calibre coach, but he puts absolutely no value on preseason and thus, gives his team superlative value to open the year. I mean, can you believe this? The Skins were field goal faves when lines were posted prior to preseason. Schottenheimer then basically mailed it in, rested a dinged up George and they are now field goal underdogs.

Folks, what we have here is a mismatch. I mean a huge mismatch. The Washington offensive line is built like a brick house. They will punish a mediocre (outside of Seau) linebacking corps all day. If Rodney Harrison cheats up (and he will), expect George to hit burners Westbrook and Gardner downfield on a woeful pair of Chargers corners. Washington's defense should be effective as well. Baily and Smoot have way too much speed for Flutie's middling arm and Coleman and Smith will bring the heat all day. The Chargers need Tomlinson to get off in a major way but with a Barber and Arrington anchoring a super linebacking corps and LT missing a lot of camp, that is hard to imagine. Again, this is a game where Washington, with the 30th ranked schedule in the league, has to get a win if they want to sneak up on people and make the playoffs.

 

[Hooks]

Nick- Thanks for the kind words concerning my Skins.I haven't heard much positives for them.I agree with your write-up,they have more experience,team and head coach.
Good Luck this year

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let element-x be with us

 

[willinreign]

Just a warning............

I live in San Diego and Norv Turner wants
this game BBBBAAAADDDD....

Play with caution we all know how
strong revenge can be............

 

[spanky2]

Revenge can only go so far and San D. IS a BAD team(like a whole bunch of them)..Luck to all ....Spanky....

 

[Ice Picks]

The Redskins are a bad team with not much "D", and not nuch "O". Flutie should complete enough passes and mix in a few scrambles to win this game easily...

New England, in my opinion, may win 6 games, one of which may be this one.

 

[JT]

Plus Charger's WR Corps have no speed to even get away from Bailey and Smoots. As long as they don't give up on the play when Flutie scrambles. I can see a 'Skins 20-14 type win. Like the under also to a degree.

"Fight for ol' DC!"

 

[Nick Douglas]

I really have a hard time finding weakness for Washington on offense or defense. In fact, I would say they are my favorite in the NFC East. They have a solid line, led by an elite left tackle. They have a punishing runner, a rocket armed quarterback and tons of talent at wideout.

On defense, the defensive line is a bit old. Otherwise, the linebackers and secondary are very sound. They also have the best coach in the division in Schottenheimer. Remember, folks, preseason means absolutely nothing. Put no stock in what you saw (or failed to see) in Washington in August.

 

[Hoops]

Curious if any Patriot fans or anyone else in general thinks the Pats are a playoff caliber team? Regardless of schedule. I would be quite surprised if anyone does, or if anyone on the team actually believes so.

Last place finish in the AFC East last season, 5-11, and have not made any major improvements. Might have actually regressed with Glenn not playing. Offensive line stunk last year, and still has major question marks. Running game is mediocre at best, with Smith and Redmond apparently sharing duties to start the season. Receivers are also very average...lots of names picked-up in the off-season but certainly no star material. Already mentioned that Glenn is out. Defense will be adequate, but already no Katzenmoyer, Johnson is banged-up, and can't count on McGinest to play an entire season. Adding Cox and Phifer just makes the team older, if nothing else.

Get Carolina and Cleveland at home, I'll give them two wins there. No gimmee to start the season with Cincy. Have to play the Jets, Dolphins, Bills, and Colts twice in the division, say 3-5 in those games. Have to play at Denver (yes, they won at Mile High last year, I don't see a repeat though), and at Atlanta. I think that's two losses. Rams, Chargers and Saints both travel to New England, another two losses, quite possibly three.

I see a 6-10 type of season, and that's if Bledsoe plays all 16 games. With all the solid teams in the AFC, I just don't see any way, shape, or form that the Pats come close to the playoffs.

 

[Nick Douglas]

New England had arguably the best offseason of any team. They added Antwain Smith, who gives them a power back to compliment Redmond in the way Wheatley compliments Garner in Oakland.

No big names added at wideout, but plenty of depth. Patton should have a solid year. All Troy Brown does is get open. He will have a very big year. Glenn's loss is a shame but hardly a catastrophe considering he hasn't produced in years.

The offensive line is totally revamped and should be very strong. Light is a rook but at least he is on the left side where the tight end can hide any pass protection issues. Compton is just a huge addition to shore up the middle of the line.

You have to love what they did on defense as well. Richard Seymour is an impact player right out of the gate up the middle. They were very soft on interior run defense last year and he will help there. Adding Cox and Vrabel gives them four above average linebackers. The only weak link of the secondary is Smith. You have to love Milloy and Jones, especially. Law has amazing ability but he slipped last year.

I see them finishing September 3-1 at least with two home division games and road games against soft Cincy and Carolina teams. October will likely be a 2-2 month with an easy home win against San Diego and they should take at least one of three at Indy, Miami and Denver. They have three home games out of four in November and I see most likely three wins. They should win at Atlanta and two of three at home against Buffalo, St. Louis and New Orleans should happen. They have a tough closing month with Cleveland being the only likely easy game. I see 2-2 with one win among games against Buffalo and the Jets on the road and Miami at home. I see 10-6, maybe 9-7 and a likely spot in the wildcard.

Look, I do like Bill Belichick but I am hardly a Patriots fan. I just see a team that fit in all the right pieces this offseason, has an elite quarterback and a relatively easy schedule. It is easy as hell to follow what pundits say, but guess what, they are often wrong. Last year most everyone had five of six division winners repeating. None did. If you know football, you know the Pats are a lot better than most people think right now and that makes them dangerous, especially ATS.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Correction, I wrote that Light was on the left side, I meant right side. Duh. You never want to stick a rook ont he left side. Typo.

 

[Hooks]

willinreighn-like to say hi,and also am wondering-- Norv,you say,wants this game BAAAAAAAD!
What the hell for? Washington gave Norv 5 years to produce!! He didn't do SHIT! So all of a sudden he want's it BAAAAAAD? He had every oppertunity to produce a winner for 5 years and COULDN'T.
The SKINS had the talent.Perhaps it's the SKINS that would like nothing better,than to kick the SHIT out of Norvs team !

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let element-x be with us

 

[He Hate Me]

Im expecting a concussion for Jeff George he has no pocket awareness,Rodney Harrison likes to hit helmet to helmet.

Deion Sanders knew what a loser MartyS. was thats why he didnt want any part of him.

Flutie crushed the Skins 34-17 last time he played them.Freddie Mccray will have big game,and Flutie will hit Tim Dwight on a jailbreak screen for a td,Doug will rush for 39yds and doesnt turn it over,the opposite of Jeff George who likes to fumble when he is sacked.

The Chargers have the best run D in the leauge.Tay Cody and Molden are playing good at Corner.

Deion is no dummy,he wanted no part of Marty the LOSER-CHOKER.

 

[Hoops]

Glenn had 69 catches for 1147 yds in '99, 79 catches for 963 yds last season, 10 TD's combined. Not super numbers, but still good and he was the focus of the passing attack, forcing doubles and allowing other receivers (such as Brown last season) an oppurtunity to put-up decent numbers. Certainly the best receiver on the team, no question.

George has a bum shoulder, as Railbird said, no surprise if he doesn't last 60 minutes on Sunday. Chargers haven't allowed over 3.1 ypc for the season the past three years..they must be doing something right with the defensive front seven. Instead of having Leaf or whomever imploding on offense and forcing the D to be on the field all game, Flutie is going to play ball-control...the defense might actually get some rest this season.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I played another game today. This time at VIP.

As far as Terry Glenn goes, he had decent numbers the last two seasons, but hardly All Pro numbers. He was their top receiver in '99, but Brown was better last year. It would be nice for the Pats to have a focused Terry Glenn, but not the headcase Terry Glenn they had the past two seasons.

The Chargers will absolutely try to bum rush George but they will get burned downfield if they blitz with that weak secondary. Heck, i like the Chargers. I am even a season ticket holder. But I like making money even more than the Skins are the far better team here in my view.

Indianapolis PK over JETS 315/300 (o/u: 44.5)

I wonder if people realize how good the Colts are. Let me make a statement right now about this team. If they play in top form, nobody in the NFL can beat them. Edgerrin James is the best running back in the NFL. Faulk is the guy most commonly cited for that standing but James has way more power and he punishes tacklers every time he touches the ball. He is uncoverable catching passes out of the backfield as well.

Obviously the rest of the offense is lethal. Manning may only trail Favre or Warner as the top NFL QB. Harrison trails only Moss as the best wideout. Reggie Wayne is a real talent coming out of college and the offensive line is on the small side, but very versatile. On defense their linebacking corps is very underrated and they can bring heat rushing four, which takes pressure off an average secondary.

But enough about how great the Colts are. Why will they win this game? Mora is a superb coach to open the season. The last two years the Colts destroyed a great Buffalo team and then beat the Chiefs handily in KC. I expect Manning to take advantage of the loss of Brian Cox as a cover linebacker and go underneath in the passing game and run James early. Green and Robinson are average safeties who lack versatility. If they come up to play the run, look for play action deep. I love Glenn and especially Coleman as cover corners, but if you play man on Harrison, he will beat you eventually.

Obviously the Colts will have their issues stopping a very good Jets offense. I like the defensive line and Peterson and Morris at linebacker to hold Martin in check if given safety help. The real key is game planning to stop Coles from getting open deep and for Burris to do a good job on Chrebet. Given Mora's coaching ability on defense, I like their chances.

The Jets threw away a playoff chance last year by scoring a combined 34 points in their last three games. The only real change in that offense is Coles, who will take a more prominent role. That all points to a Colts team scoring at will and a Jets team not being able to keep up.

 

[Dr Feelgood]

with ya on Indy Nick. Big-time. You are probably right that they are definatley the best team in the AFC when on, but there's something about Jim Mora and the playoffs that just don't work out. I saw it with Dan Reeves for years and im Mora and his Diddly Poo just doesn't cut it.

Want to send out a quick thanks for all the informative posts and plethera of winners.

I enjoy your posts daily and wish continued success.

--DF

 

[willinreign]

reply to hooks>>

I was just reporting what I heard in a radio interview.. Just thought I would let
you know...... Jeff George looked horrible
in preseason....isn't he injured???

[This message has been edited by willinreign (edited 09-06-2001).]

 

[Nick Douglas]

My final play for the week...

Miami +220 over TENNESSEE 300/660

Downfield passing the the key advantage I see here. Tennessee will bring heat all night so Fiedler will have to make his reads and burn them with McKnight. Smith is good in pass protection so I expect a smart guy like Fiedler to make the proper read and take advantage, especially in play action in early downs.

Tennessee's only real question mark is downfield passing and that is exactly what Miami excels at taking away. Madison and Surtain should contain Dyson fairly well on their own, giving Marion a chance to give much needed help against Wycheck and George. Taylor has to bring heat and prove he can be a force in Armstrong's absence. If he does that, Miami should give the Titans fits.

Miami has a special teams advantage as well. Mare is a very solid kicker and we all know how shaky the Titans field goal unit was last year. It is really risky to play a top contender like Tennessee to lose on opening night on national television but most factors that I see point to Miami. Miami beat Tennessee last time they met as their defense held George in check better than any defense really has in the past two years. I see a similar result Sunday night as Miami serves notice that they are for real again in 2001.

 

[skulldog]

Nick, I respect your plays and opinions but to say the "New England had arguably the best offseason of any team. They added Antwain Smith, who gives them a power back to compliment Redmond in the way Wheatley compliments Garner in Oakland".

Let's not confused JR w/Wheatly.

They have no offensive or defensive line, tight end, no downfield receiver, Bledsoe is going to get killed!! Their strengths are in the linebackers and DB's.

Now having said that, they'll probaly win sunday.

Hoops, Pats will be LUCKY to win 6 games this year, let's not forget they lost to Cleveland and the Bears last year.

GLTA

 

[bgold13]

Watch out for New England-JR Redmond may have a breakot game

 

[Nick Douglas]

2-2, +300 so far this week. My last play of the week will be a Monday night play.

DENVER -260 over Giants 312/120

Denver has a dominant running game, a vastly improved defense and they are opening a new stadium on Monday night. New York has Mr. Angie Harmon.

In all seriousness, losing Christian Peter will show here as Anderson (or Davis) should have a very strong game. New York did well last year with a patchwork offensive line but with the addition of Marcus Robertson, Denver's pass coverage should be sound enough to force Collins to wait and feel the heat. I am passing on giving 6.5 points because, well, I want Denver's goal in the game to be the same as mine. I am very sure that Denver will win and I think figuring on a 73%+ chance of winning is a great play.