Week 2 NCAA Football

[Tavros]

It's only Tuesday, so these are just early leans...I DO NOT make any plays until gameday (usually shortly before kickoff), when the line has fully adjusted. If you are unfamiliar with my betting strategy, here is the scoop. I don't look at stats, records, injuries, or really care who is playing who. The plays are based on historical findings that look at different situations week to week and try to find "value" in the Vegas line.

I will add commentary where I feel I have any input, but it usually has nothing to do with actual football. If anyone wants to add their feedback or own picks, we can probably get some cool football discussions going throughout the boring week. Hit me up with any questions you have.

No record to date, since I allow for 1 week before any bets are made. Again, these are just early leans, nothing solid until closer to gameday.

Duke +19 @ Wake Forest
Mississippi State +20 vs Auburn - Auburn had lots of $$$ backing them last week in blowout win vs Washington St.
Kent +4.5 @ Army
Vanderbilt +15.5 @ Alabama
No Illinois -14 vs Ohio
Michigan State -26 vs Eastern Michigan
UCLA -27.5 vs Rice
Boston College +2.5 vs Clemson - looks like this is best play on the board. Vegas is most confused on this game.
Syracuse +19 vs Iowa
LSU -15 vs Arizona
Arkansas -28 vs Utah State
Western Michigan +10.5 vs Toledo
Tulane +13.5 @ Houston
UAB -6 vs East Carolina - Could also be the best play on the board.
South Carolina +3 vs Georgia
UTEP +7 vs Texas Tech
Fresno State +5 vs Oregon
Arkansas State +14.5 vs Oklahoma State

 

[ryanmcgwyer]

LSU will cover

LSU will cover

No look ahead here. LSU will start #22 Alley Broussard at RB and he is the real deal. This is a nationally televised game and a chance to again show the world that the PATHETIC 10 conference is a joke. I mean really I went to the LSU Zona game 2 years ago and people were actually tailgaiting at starbucks, parking was still avail 2 hours before kickoff. PAC-10 wants to surf or watch OC not cheer for their team. FUSC is pretty good this year but thats it for the entire conference. Dont beat up on ARKANSAS and then tell us how good you are.

 

[Tavros]

What is the LSU QB situation looking like? Solid starter set or what?

 

[Deezeldogg]

Tavros, I see 2 picks that are on my list, but I have the other team. Care to give me any insight? I have:

Arizona over LSU
Oklahoma St. over Arkansas St

 

[Tavros]

Like I said earlier, my plays are strictly based on "line value"...but having followed college football religiously as a side-job for the last 5 years, I can give you some input.

Arizona/LSU-
Real simple...SEC team at home vs a mid- to low-grade Pac 10 team. Arizona scored 16 last week vs BYU, and they will be facing a more physically imposing D this week. LSU was able to get some flow going on both sides of the ball albeit vs UL-LA, and it should not be any different vs Arizona. From a line standpoint...opened at 14.5 and should never get any lower. I would play this game at any line really. Had it opened 13.5 or lower, would be more weary.

Oklahoma State/Arkansas State-
Classic example of a no-name team getting some points at home vs a big conference name. Home dogs are the most solid play you can bet blindly in almost any sport. Just have to pick your spots. I like the 2 TD's and some in this one.

 

[Deezeldogg]

Thanks Tavros.

Does Stoopes have the Arizona program going in any kind of upward direction??

 

[Tavros]

Absolutely...Stoopes is a great fit for them and he has already shown that Arizona is no slouch on anyone's schedule. I just feel early in the season, they are out-matched vs a tough SEC team on the road.

 

[joefrog91]

I like the following plays.

Vanderbilt +15.5 @ Alabama
No Illinois -14 vs Ohio
UCLA -27.5 vs Rice
LSU -15 vs Arizona
UAB -6 vs East Carolina
UTEP +7 vs Texas Tech (Actually going with the over on this one)
Fresno State +5 vs Oregon

 

[Tavros]

Good stuff joefrog...good luck to you.

 

[Deezeldogg]

Thanks Tavros. I just might scratch this game altogether.

 

[Tavros]

Good luck deezle...should be an interesting weekend.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Tavros: Do you really think Vegas is confused on the BC line, or do you think they are trying to drive action in one direction.

I like the way you work (I'm similar) but just want to hear more on this game.

Also: Considering your line value strategy, I'm surprised to see so many games listed.

 

[Tavros]

Hey gmroz22-
I kinda lump the two together and try not to distinguish (confused/driving action). I just think the Clemson/BC game is the one this week that stands out the most as far as uncertainty for Vegas.

My numbers are showing BC as long as they are getting points at home. If this line were to bounce back to where it opened and BC was the favorite...I would lay off.

I try not to worry too much about line movement, perception, momentum, etc... at least not individually. Think of each angle as a layer of the cake...rarely will you have every layer stacked on, but when you think you can get enough layers telling you one thing, it's worth a play.

Regarding the number of plays...I could easily cut down and become more selective with only my "super-high" EV plays (and play them for more $)...but I like to spread my $ more thinly across the board and diversify. I work on Wall Street if that tells you anything. I have no problem making 175-225 bets this year...exposes me to more situations and allows me to see where my mistakes are being made. Early in the season, I expect to see more lines that are "off" and have not been adjusted for.

Good luck to you...

 

[jharris]

Clemson wins game by 7+ points. They got outmuscled last year and will return the favor this year. Tigers are solid on both sides of the ball, esp. offense. Defense is hurting a little b/c of the two linebackers they lost, but are pretty deep at the LB position.

 

[Deezeldogg]

I like Clemson also, although they always let me down when I play them. BC did not look good at all.

 

[Tavros]

We'll see boys...just one game, not too worried about it.

 

[Hashish]

Do not under any circumstances take Syracuse. They only managed 10 against Wake Forest, and they will be lucky to score a touchdown against the Hawkeyes. Look for Iowa to score around 5 touchdowns.

 

[Tavros]

Jedi....your reasoning makes me like Syracuse even more.

 

[Hashish]

I'll be sure to come back here and laugh in your face when Iowa wins 35-7.

 

[Tavros]

I'll be sure to feel sorry for such an immature poster. Good luck to you this weekend.