Week 5 Card (Sept 25th-27th)

[Irish]

EDIT... I will try to keep up but right now of posted plays, re-hits, and parlays the record is 46-37-3.... work to do and the number might be off a bit but should be right.

Mich St (-8.5) over Indiana
Expect a bit of a let down after Mich St beat up on ND. Indiana is coming off a blasting by Ball St. The Cards lost their best WR and playmaker Love during the game yet the offense still rolled. Kellen Lewis is the playmaker for this team but he has nothing else around him. He can run and throw but MSU knows that and it will be time for the spartan defense to key on him and only him. The hoonsiers really lack any reliable receivers outside Means and they have a very big problem running the ball. Indiana allowed Ball St to roll up the yards on the ground and with Ringer and the big Spratan o-line it might very almost impossible for the hoosiers to stop the green offense. The sooner pass defense has not faired well either and with the focus on Riger Hoyer will be able to throw it down field to open targets. SCARY because he has been very disappointing this season. The defense has been out of position and even when they are in the spot to make the tackle they have problems wrapping up. So with the lack of defense for Indiana, and the running game of Mich St it will be a tough task for Indianna to stop drives from resulting in points. Too many points for MSU and the defense keying on Lewis and the Spartans should be able to beat up on a team that has 2 wins against bad teams and a blow out loss to its only hard task this season.

Tex (-27) over Ark
I wrote this up a few weeks ago before it was pushed back and almost everything remains the same but considering how bad it got against Bama this game should get ugly. Ark has no offense and they have a poor defense. Not only that but the longhorns are starting to play very solid at home and McCoy is passing like he did his freshman year. This is a dangerours Texas team with a good defense and should be looking for a SEC win at home in convincing stlye. Please refer to week 3 card if you would like more of my thoughts on this game. Even though Ark isn't looking at Bama on the doorstep, they still do not have the talent to play with this team.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Hooks]

Irish, can't find this game , do you have a rotation # ?

 

[Irish]

Hooks,
Thats my fault I either wrote it and took it away or saw the cancellation and punted I will write it up again later tonight. Feeding my boy at the moment.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Texas (-27) over Arkansas
A little more on this.....Alabama was up 35-7 at halftime when they played. They allowed 320 plus yards to Bama rushing. You would think that means Bama had the ball all day but you would be wrong because Arkansas had the ball at least ten more mins. They just cannot tackle and stop drives from ending in points. Then they get the ball and can move it but make too many mistakes and cannot capitalize. What makes this also very nice is the unability for Dick or whomever they play at QB to avoid interceptions giving up 4 in that game. Alabama overpowered the Razorbacks' struggling defense and averaged eight yards per play. The Razorbacks are just demoralized right now and they have to travel to texas. Considering Texas just shut down the Rice passing attack they should not have any problems with this passing game. At home the longhorns win by an average of 42. With a Colorado game on Deck I still think they get locked and loaded on Ark. Remember Brown now has had two weeks to game plan for this team. Colt McCoy has completed about 77% and has 11 TD's, something the Arkansas team has not delt with. One reason is because Ark cannot stop the run so why even pass. Well Texas has not had a big running game this season but they will esablish the run but beat them all day passing. McCoy has been showing great leadership and now is running the ball well. This will be a victory the longhorns want because any win against the SEC looks good and if they can run it up they will to get some attention.

Auburn (-6.5) over Tenn
The Vols were exposed on offense in week one and then they were just beaten against florida and now they go into Auburn against a pissed off Tiger team. Auburns defense will shut the Tenn running game down and the Vols will not have the options to score points. Auburn showed they can score on a very good defense and Tenn will not have the same power as LSU so Auburn should be able to score. A little worry because they are gonna let down a bit and the mistakes that hurt them. Still I like the home field advantage and I think Tenn is a very overrated team. They have a bad coach, holes on the o-line a QB that struggles under pressure and a defense that struggles against spread formations. Moving the offensive Co to the press box gives Auburn a better look at the defense and his play calling was much improved. He will more than likely stay there and the Tigers should benefit in the long run. One thing the Tigers have are great DE's, thats one reason I really like this because the strength of Tenn is on the outside and if the DE's can contain without LB help the Tigers can stuff the middle and blitz from all over. I like Auburn to really take out some frustration of last week against a team they are better than. They will be focused and Tenn is doubting the switch to the new system.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

GL on those chief:toast:

 

[ajoytoy]

go get this week buddy!

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck this week Irish.

 

[Irish]

Wisky (-6.5) over Mich
OK Wisky played well aginsy Fresno in the green V so am I supposed to think that because this game is in the big house the Mich terrible offense will be able to stop the badger running game. I made that mistake in week one when they played Utah and they got blow away. Mich are last in every catagory in the Big Ten. Wisky has had a week off to get it under control and I think they are the better team. They are playing good football and they have a good front four backed up with a solid safety tandom. Wisconsin also went 2-0 against West Virginia while Rodriguez was coach, including a 24-17 win in Morgantown in 2003. So they have seen this sytem and beaten it when it had the players and talent. This is a statement game for Wisky, they have NEVER won in the big house so you have to know they will be coming in with a chip on the shoulder. "There's no weaknesses," Rodriguez said of Wisconsin. "It's a big, physical team. A typical Wisconsin team. They're going to run the ball right at you." And thats what I like, Wisky will run the Mich defense over and Coach Rod just does not have the talent on defense to stop it. Plus they just cannot grasp the system Rod has and he does not have the players in place to make that system work. The thing that will kill Michigan is the playaction, they have a TE that is big and fast and off playaction will make huge plays. It scares me a little that the badgers go against Ohio St next week but considering the bad blood here, they should be focused and ready. A badger team that is bigger and stronger against a Mich team fighting to understand the offense and not getting it done on defense means trouble for Big House fans. Notre dame smacked this team, Utah smacked this team and Wisky should smack this team because a lot of big ten teams have been smacked by Mich so they are looking for some pay back.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Master Capper]

Looking at possibly playing Auburn this week, as Vols offense is just downright awful. The only thing that is holding me back is that I am wondering if Auburn will have a flat spot here after a deflating loss at home to LSU? Best of luck this week!

 

[Irish]

SMU (+18) over Tulane
This is trouble with a capital T. SMU has looked outright bad in a few games this season. They have ZERO defense and not enough talent at QB to run the spread offense. Tulane has played tougher teams and has been in the games so I am worried when I see 18 on the board when IMO the green wave are about a three TD fav. Especially considering the SMU has more than sputtered on offense and Tulane has a good defense. The Green Wave ranks first nationally in sacks (14), eighth in total defense (223.3 yards per game), 12th in pass defense (150.3) and 16th against the run (73.0). In the past two game the SMU offense has managed only 7 points. SMU's run-and-shoot offense is averaging 281.8 passing yards per game, compared to 252.1 yards per game last season. The Mustangs netted minus-8 rushing yards on 12 attempts against the Horned Frogs. SMU has gained just 125 yards on the ground in four games. SMU had three more turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) against TCU and now have 13 for the season. Everything and the home field points to Tulane yet they are only giiving eightteen. Weel I just cannot see the SMU offense palying well enough to stay with Tulane. So why go with SMU, well I just do not see Tulane scoring that many points and even on TD on Tulane might be enough. Considering Tulane has only score 28 as a season high the mustangs can throw a couple points on the board and be in this contest. I also think that if Tulane gets ahead SMU will keep throwing because this season is just a get ready for Jones next season. Gonna be a hold your breath on this one because all signs point to Tulane.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Clemson (-11.5) over Maryland
Has Maryland righted the ship and put a terrible close win against Deleware and a loss to Mid Tenn behind them. Well the offense looked like they got things in gear last week but that was against E. Mich and they are just not good defensively. Thats is also the story for Maryland, they struggle defensively. They are banged up and just poor in pass coverage. BUT that is not the tigers strong suit, this team will look to run and run often and if they cannot they kinda implode (see Bama film). They need to establish both Davis and Spiller but they need to find Kelly. This kid is a playmaker and they unability for Haper not to look his way makes it harder for the running backs to find room. The Clemson defense is not great but they are better than Marylands offense and they need to show up and feed off the energy of the crowd and get to a QB that could break if he gets under the gun. Harper just has not looked good this season and it would make me very happy to see Korn under center. Korns arm is better for this offense, after all he did go 7-7 when he got in but he also can pull it down and run when in trouble unlike Harper who ducks his head into pressure. What Maryland did was win the last two weeks and put themselves on the radar and that means Clemson will not sleep walk through this game going into Wake but rather be focused and ready because this team have rebounded and Clemson cannot afford another loss. At home, with more talent, more speed and a better defense the tigers have the edge in my mind but will Harpers turnovers cost them. It all hinges on if this kid can make throws everyone will put 10 in the box after watching Bama play, the question is if the QB can see it and hit the hot WR. I will think he can this week, if he see's it then the secondary will be easy to throw the quick hitter on.

PSU (-13.5) over Ill
This game is very interesting, why 13.5? Ill showed they lost a step when they played Mizzou and got abused on defense and truely only stayed close because of go routes the CB's and Safeties just sat on. That game was at a nutral field. Now they go to happy valley and will get pressure they have not seen before from the lion defense. Juice will not be used to only four guys getting pressure on him and the PSU line should disrupt him almost every snap. That leaves fast LB's in to shadow Juice because the threat of his deep bombs or running makes up my only concerns in this game. PSU has shown week in and out they are for real and now they get an overrated Ill team at home. This line should IMO be closer to 18 or 19. PSU has the nation's top scoring differential at 42.8 points. They have the country's sixth-ranked offense (538.5 yards per game) and seventh-ranked defense (222.3 ypg). This is also a revenge game after they lost last year to Ill 27-20. The key in this game is go after Juice, he has 7 TD's but also has throw 5 picks, he has been known to throw dangerous passes under pressure and he will see that saturday. PSU's offense against an overrated Ill team that has not looked good against big teams and struggled against a poor team last week.

Bama (+7) over Georgia
SEVEN.. I have to take that on principal alone. This is going to be an SEC battle and remember the dogs struggled against SC and if it was not for a fumble by Davis late in the game at the goal line it might have been a different output. Bama has a run stuffer up the middle and the LB's to be on Morano all day long. It will be up to Stafford to make it happen and I am just not sold that he can do that in this game. Yes he was solid against ASU but this will be a different monster. Both teams have aggressive defenses but Bama looked more stable against pressure where Georgia looked to slow and be confused at times. Georgia and Alabama have met five times when both were ranked, with the Bulldogs winning all five meetings. Georgia has won three straight over the Tide since a 31-0 Alabama victory in Athens in 1995. This game should be a tough defensive battle and I will take seven in any contest with two teams that have tremendous defenses and dominant rush offenses. Not much more to write up considering how good these teams are on defense, I would say Bama moneyline but I think they have seen such a big O-line as Georgia. Remember though the bulldogs have some young talent on that line and Bama might be able to get pressure there, still I see this as the Georgia/SC game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[spang]

I haven't seen Penn State at 13'. I went the other way last night at +15. Still at no less than 14' at any of the shops I use.

Good luck

 

[Irish]

:scared
Org St (+24.5) over USC
OK I just know that the trojans are going to roll and I really talked myself into this play because of location and the extra week to prepare. I still think that Org St needs to be more efficent and avoid mistakes if they want to stay in this number. I am backing a QB in Moivoe... he is rubbish and is always good for a mistake or two. I saw Org st blow ever tackle at the LB level against Stanford and Penn St. Lets talk about that PSU game, they were out right smacked in the mouth asked for a little more and PSU gave them some extra. So why, why the beavers? Well one thing is I like the fact this is the sugarbowl for Oregon St and thier coach seems to have been able to put together a solid game plan against USC. USC has yielded the fewest points in the nation and is allowing 197.0 yards per game, second-best in the country. The defense has forced seven turnovers and recorded seven sacks. I would really like this game if Catfield was in because I think he is a better QB against pressure. A nice look ahead spot to Oregon and let down from Ohio St gives me a little comfort but this is USC and they beat bad teams by a lot and it could get out of hand tonight. The key for Org St is to keep the defense guessing and move the chains. It might not hurt to test them in the match up with Stroughter, he might be able to make some plays. The org St defense needs to answer the call and have a great game. I think in every department the trojans have the advantage but I have to go with my gut here. Chances are I am wrong because of the beavers being outmatched but this beaver team has talent they just have not been playing up to potential. Tonight, at home they need to have a very good game if not a perfect game to win, which I tthink is not going to happen, but they could stay within the number.

Spang... grabbed it around monday night. It looked great to me then so I took it as a lean for a play.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

I haven't seen Penn State at 13'. I went the other way last night at +15. Still at no less than 14' at any of the shops I use.

Good luck

a few days ago quite a few books (betjamaica, bookmaker, betonline, the greek) had penn st-13.5....

good luck with your plays this week irish...

 

[tulah]

hey Irish.

GL tonight

 

[Irish]

Org St (+14.5) over USC second half
The beavers believe, they have the crowd behind them and they have not even had to go to the passing game to test the secondary that is banged up. Moevao needs to stay focused... that last TD pass was too close to a pick but I like that they believe and can run the ball. Have to think they test the secondary deep off play action in the second.

SMU is just bad yet they still are in the battle.... c'mon stangs!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

AWESOME job by the place kicker to hit the up right and blow my second half play but those are the breaks.

L'Ville (-3.5) over UConn
The Cards are No. 2 nationally against the run, a problem for a Connecticut offense that?s painfully one-dimensional. The running game is the only trouble L'Ville will have on defense. English has done a great job of committing more to the run and UConn has not seen a defensive front like this to date. Although UConn is all run I never like backing Cantwell. He looked good in his last game but I am not sold on his arm and his tunnel vision at times. Louisville gained nearly 600 yards against K-State, 303 on the ground and 274 through the air. It held the ball for more than two-thirds of the game. They have put together a good combination at running back and both backs should be able to either hit holes of push piles forward. Thats good because even though Cantwell has thrown some picks he has targets at WR that he can use if the UConn defense crowds the box. Something struggling Lorenzen cannot do, he has 1 TD and 6 picks on the year and I just don't think his confidence is where it needs to be when called upon to win the game. The QB's are is not good but he can pull it down and run so this game will be completely about how L'Ville handles any rushing player. Defensive Co English needs to get his guys in the box and they need to meet in the backfield, blow off the ball and not allow Brown to get the corner. Gap assisgnment will be key and let the offense play from out front which will force the huskies to abandon the run and be completely uneffective. The home field will be energentic and the Cards can feed off that energy while UConn has struggled on the road over the past few seasons. It shou;d be a good game and UConn could win oiutright but the defense is going to be where L'Ville needs to step up. They do that and the offense can be successful all night passing and rushing. Keep the UConn running game off the field and keep the UConn defense on their heels by mixing it up which is something Kragthorp is good at doing.

Cheers
Irish

 

[trolln4walii]

Like your card this week Irish. On alot of the same plays. Nice calls on Smu and OreSt :toast: Hope the Cardinals start of the week right for me. GL

 

[spang]

Thanks, I was exploring the possiblity of buying a little back if I could find it at that number. I liked the idea of crossing 14. Obviously Penn State's stock has gone up a bit since the our plays were made so finding a 13' is probably a pipe dream now.

 

[cooz3]

nice analysis on games..best of luck this weekend.

and is it me or have there been a TON of missed extra points this year?????

cooz