Week 7 Playing early and often

[spang]

YTD: 40-47 -12.95

Usually when I take a first look at the weeks numbers I only see one or two that really make me take notice. I have just made a lot of plays because there are some numbers that I really love right from the get-go. Hoping that this is the week I make a big move forward.

Cinci -2' 3units
Ohio St. -13 2 units
BG -4 2 units
Wisc +1 1 unit
Western +7 1 unit
Miami O +11 1 unit
Akron +10 1 unit
Kent State -3 buy (-120) 5 units

 

[spang]

Also wanted to note that I have a great interest in the NIU/ Toledo line when it is released. The delay is due to the pending published info on Opelt's MRI that he had today.

 

[spang]

Adding a couple plus totals

Miami + 14 one unit
The number goes up and I'll bite again. Miami is getting a little better and can keep this one interesting

N Ill -5 two units
Toledo was badly exposed by Western last week and Kill has the better all around team here. Also, there is a possibility that Opelt won't go. Even if he does I'm not sure that he can make the downfield plays with the gimpy shoulder.

Cinci/ S Fla over 49' one unit
Just think that S Fla's soft schedule catches up to them. Kelly will have the bearcats ready and Cinci can hang up a big number.

BG/Ball State over 54 two units
Two terrible D's. BG has given up 128 pts in their last three and they are the better team here. Sheehan playing great football for the Falcons.

Army/ Temple over 39 one unit
Think I need Army to score twice to push this over.

Akron/ Buff under 46 one unit
Zips down to true freshman Nicely at QB for his first start and expect to see the play calling to be very cautious. Akrons defense played very well against OU last out.

NIU/ Toledo under 59' one unit
See above. NIU can defend and is probably only 2nd to Ohio State as the toughest D Toledo has faced.

Kent/EMU over 51 one unit
Again, two terrible defenses. Need Eastern to get the offense untracked a bit behind the backup QB's. I think that they can score just enough to push this one over.

More than likely all I will have this week other than a halftime play or two. BIG week for me.

 

[hawkeye]

GL Spang--Like to see when you put uf MAC totals as I usaully have no clue about them. Like Cin and N Ill alot

 

[Irish]

Gl this weekend Spang... I liked that BG game as well but they have started to spiral a bit lately so I'll pass as they go on the road.

Cincy eh? Leaning more for the home dog with a defense. as always hope they cash!

Cheers
Irish

 

[#cruncher]

Like a lot of your plays Spang...sometimes all it takes is one good week to get a man over the hump...GL

 

[spang]

Thanks guys,

Cruncher you are correct. Last year I struggled for much of the season before heating up and hitting some large plays late in the year. I'm hoping that history repeats.

Buying off of the Zips as their injuries and special teams play is having me doubt their ability to cover on the road. The number moved the right way so I can hope for a 9 or 10 but will likely eat a little vig.

Buffalo -8' one unit

 

[LDB]

bol as always spang

 

[ageecee]

what is your best O/U this week spang?

 

[spang]

what is your best O/U this week spang?

probably Ball St / BG over, but I get nervous when I get "over happy" in any given week. This is one of those weeks when I do favor a lot of over plays. I also like one I didn't even post, CMU/Western to go over as well. I usually love to look for every reason to favor an under play before I go the other way. It also makes me nervous because to this point unders have been very strong this year.

If Opelt does not go for Toledo the under there becomes the best play but he's probable as of now.
Keep your eyes open: toledoBlade.com

GL, AG & thanks for the feedback Irish & LDB

 

[spang]

Adding one more unit to the Cinci play, now a 4 unit play.

While it's true that Cinci has played a few weak teams I am not at all impressed with the quality of the S. Fla schedule. it would be very tough to find a softer group. Even their win at FSU seems a lot less impressive in light of the Seminoles dismal season. I also think its a bit alarming that they were slightly outyarded by the Orange last week in a game where they should have really been more dominant. Also of concern is the S Fla special teams situation. If the game comes down to needing a key FG, the Bulls could be in trouble, they are 3/9 for the year on FGs.

I do like QB Daniels as I was not a big fan of Grothe. I believe that he's going to be a great QB. I'm just not sure that he's ready to make the reads for some of the looks that Kelly will throw at him.

Bearcat QB Tony Pike is well seasoned and makes good decisions and Gilyard is one of the most exciting players in the game. If I have a concern at all, it is that Cinci is a bit thin at LB where injuries have taken a toll but their leader C. Young is expected to be back for this one. I like the fact that the Bearcats come into this one off of a date with Miami O. I'm certain that they have been stressing this one for some time now and it's quite a longshot that Kelly gets outcoached by anybody. He will have this team ready to go for the national tv audience.

I like Cinci to cover the short number.

 

[LDB]

tomorrows night game is going to be a good one imo... gl on your cinci play spang

 

[ageecee]

Spang is Akron on there 3rd QB? If so why is this line dropped to -8.5

 

[Blackman]

With you on Cincy -- I see mismatches at many positions, and from what I see in the Big East, the Bearcats are on a different tier than the rest of the conference. South Florida has a history of up-ending teams on weeknights, but my impression of Cincy is that they are not doing this with smoke and mirrors, they are lining up and outplaying their opponents at the point of attack. +8 turnover ratio isn't too shabby either.

As you pointed out the off-week serves Kelly well, and if his gameplan is anything like it was vs Rutgers or Oregon State, Cincy is going to roll. They've proven they can win on the road, which puts me at ease.

Good luck.

 

[AR182]

with you on the buff under but against you on the temple total....good thread....keep up the good work....

good luck....

 

[spang]

Spang is Akron on there 3rd QB? If so why is this line dropped to -8.5

Yes, redshirt Nicely is the third QB, only one more left if he goes down.

I think that the line move makes perfect sense because I too thought the opener was high and made a wager on Akron. I only decided to buy it back because it moved the right way and after much thought I decided that their limitations at QB and special team play make them a bad risk. Brookhart made a statement indicating that he was going to try to keep a tight leash on Nicely so I think that the Buffalo corners will have a great chance of jumping the short routes for a pick or two.

Al, you may well be right about the Temple total. The ball will be on the ground a lot. I'm just not sure that the Owl's defense is all that. The wins over the last two bottom feeders say little but Buffalo was up and down the field on them all day. They just shot themselves in the foot with a steady stream of poor QB play and TO's. I'm just thinking that Army can get into the endzone a couple of times and hope that may be enough to push it over.

Good take Blackman, lets hope it plays out that way. Always good to hear from you, I have not seen you around much lately.

GL all

 

[AR182]

Al, you may well be right about the Temple total. The ball will be on the ground a lot. I'm just not sure that the Owl's defense is all that. The wins over the last two bottom feeders say little but Buffalo was up and down the field on them all day. They just shot themselves in the foot with a steady stream of poor QB play and TO's. I'm just thinking that Army can get into the endzone a couple of times and hope that may be enough to push it over.

spang....

buffalo has a more diversified offense than army, who averages about 64-69 yds. per game in the air & completes about 41% of its passes....a capper at another forum doesn't think army will score....i am not that bold but i wouldn't be surprised since army's strength plays right into temple's....but we'll see....

good luck....

 

[spang]

spang....

buffalo has a more diversified offense than army, who averages about 64-69 yds. per game in the air & completes about 41% of its passes....a capper at another forum doesn't think army will score....i am not that bold but i wouldn't be surprised since army's strength plays right into temple's....but we'll see....

good luck....

Points very well taken. I'm certainly not above saying that I missed one and buy it back. I feel that I know Temple well enough but I'm going to take another look at Army.

Thanks for taking the time in an attempt to help me out. I do appreciate that.

 

[pfj]

gl tonight spang i love the cincy play on it ml myself only for one unit tho. hope we cash it!!!

 

[AR182]

Points very well taken. I'm certainly not above saying that I missed one and buy it back. I feel that I know Temple well enough but I'm going to take another look at Army.

Thanks for taking the time in an attempt to help me out. I do appreciate that.

spang....

there is a good chance that you are right & i am wrong...you are a very good capper & you should stick to your guns....& btw the total has dropped....

good luck with whatever you decide....