Week 8 NFL Jord

[Jord20]

Now, of course, you can't run the worst play drawn up ever in the history of the NFL, but that's an entirely different conversation

 

[rocky mountain]

2 point





I've had way too many people bitch about TB going for 2 (mostly because they lost +6/6.5 lmao). So here is the simple explanation about why you absolutely 100% have to go for 2 (and it's not close). Going to OT is NOT winning - in fact you are only 50/50 (and in the dog's case - even less). Kicking two extra points maximizes the chance to reach overtime. Attempting a 2-point conversion when down eight points late maximizes the chance to win the game, which is the ultimate goal.



So basic assumptions... 100% XP (it's actually less obviously)... 50% 2 point conversion (this is right about where it is leaguewide)...You score 2 TDs and the other team doesn't





Kick XPs... 50% (make both XPs) and 50/50 in OT... so you go to OT and win 50% of the time



Go for 2...



50% you make the first 2pt… 100% you make the XP time 2… 50% you win outright with no OT



25% of the time you miss both 2 pts - lose



25% of the time you miss the 1st 2 point, and get the 2nd _then you win half the OT games, so another 12.5% of the time (.50 *.50) * .50







50% +12.5% = 62.5%... (This seems higher than 50 to me 😊)



12.5% increase in win expectancy going for 2 the first time down 14 late in a game. You can adjust the percentages based on team, and anything reasonable leads you to the same answer.... ALWAYS GO FOR 2 Late in a game down 14!

So if you're buying points should you consider buying up to +8.5 or down to -5.5 as key points if close to those numbers?

 

[Real_Vision]

Dunno about that rocky - all Jords saying (and its ‘the book’ and the right move everytime) is analytics go beyond the next play. They look ahead and drive strategy for the BEST PATH / ODDS at winning.

Going for 2 once, we can agree, has an average chance to convert. Dont know the stat but best guess 50% maybe just below?

Now forget odds - think probability like a coin flip. One two pt try has a 50% chance at giving u 2 pts. A SECOND attempt increases the probability of converting AT LEAST ONE TIME in a given period.

In other words, 50/50 to convert a single 2 pt attempt, now two attempts using the conversion rate of 50% dramatically improves your odds of getting it once. You’re not trying to convert both - but probability of not getting the 2nd one is far lower than the chances in a single attempt.


Reault? Maximize your shot at getting 2 pts.


See below (from a wealth mgts linkedin):

The probability of a low probability event occurring at least once increases dramatically as the number of events increases. The probability of rolling a six on a 6-sided die that we discussed earlier is 17%. If there are two dice, rolling double sixes (or any double number) is 17% X 17% = 3%.

 

[rocky mountain]

Dunno about that rocky - all Jords saying (and its ‘the book’ and the right move everytime) is analytics go beyond the next play. They look ahead and drive strategy for the BEST PATH / ODDS at winning.

Going for 2 once, we can agree, has an average chance to convert. Dont know the stat but best guess 50% maybe just below?

Now forget odds - think probability like a coin flip. One two pt try has a 50% chance at giving u 2 pts. A SECOND attempt increases the probability of converting AT LEAST ONE TIME in a given period.

In other words, 50/50 to convert a single 2 pt attempt, now two attempts using the conversion rate of 50% dramatically improves your odds of getting it once. You’re not trying to convert both - but probability of not getting the 2nd one is far lower than the chances in a single attempt.


Reault? Maximize your shot at getting 2 pts.


See below (from a wealth mgts linkedin):

The probability of a low probability event occurring at least once increases dramatically as the number of events increases. The probability of rolling a six on a 6-sided die that we discussed earlier is 17%. If there are two dice, rolling double sixes (or any double number) is 17% X 17% = 3%.

My head hurts from all this math, but it shows how much work it takes to be a successful handicapper. Thanks Vision and congrats on your MLB MVP call, I saw it the day you mentioned it and thought is was a very astute call at that time and it paid off! 👏 👏