Well, I've already posted my game of the year in another thread... so lets get onto the other ones. :com:
Iowa St. +4.5 (@KSU)
--- I believe Iowa St. wins this one outright. They have been terrible this season, but KSU is a very bad team... ISU has 10x the talent that the Cats have... I think McCarney makes the necesary adjustments to pull this one out...
Baylor +5 (TAMU)
--- Underrated at home vs. overrated on the road. Love these games.
Baylor will spread out the Aggies, and I think Bell is going to be able to nickle and dime them down the field throughout the game. The Bears have absolutely no running game... but they dont really need one with the passing attack... I think if Morriss feels like they need to run, they can mix that in as well.
TAMU is due for a down week... they cant keep pulling out these close ones... a play here and there and they are 0-4 in conference... their 3 wins there have all been tight, throughout... They havent convinced me they are a good team, and I use that term loosely.
Once again, I think Baylor wins outright.
Nebraska -5.5 (@OSU)
--- OSU is a young team that doesnt have the horses yet to hang in games with big-time teams, IMO. They dont have an impressive win yet this season.
The Huskers are still an underrated team, in my eyes. They would have beaten the Longhorns were it not for a late fumble, and if that hadnt occured this line would probably be -7 and above. So I think there is a little bit of value, here.
They have a balanced attack, and I think they keep the young Pokes off balance, and win by double figures.
Colorado +2 (@KU)
--- Just kill me. We are about to lose to a 1-7 team at home.
KU could win by 21 and I wouldnt be surprised, so let me preface with that... But there are legit reasons to take the points with CU:
1. Adam Barmann is starting. Bad, bad, bad quarterback. If CU knows what its doing, they will put pressure on him all game long and force him to hurry his throws... in which case the Hawks will have 5 TO's. Seriously.
2. The 2nd half implosions have taken a toll on the team... especially the defense, which has come under fire... they are young, so intead of getting fired up, its probably to the point of being demoralizing, now.
3. The campus has turned on the team. Really. Its sad, actually. I am probably the biggest fan that this team has on its campus... I have nothing to do on Saturday... and I gave up my ticket. I refuse to support this years team again by taking the time to go the stadium. I NEVER EVER thought I would do this... and by no means am I a fair weather fan... I wont support Mangino, and I wont support the '06 team again. Now imagine if an absolute die-hard fan is doing this, what will happen with the rest of the students/season ticket holders. The sports editor of The Kansan wrote a good article this week where he said he wouldnt go again this season either, and he expected many to follow that lead. In other words, Memorial Stadium is going to be dead.
4. I have a tip... that I absolutely promised my buddy I wouldnt divulge... he is a sports beat writer for The Kansan... he got a tip from someone he knows... if its true, it would rock college football... and would make perfect sense of a lot of things this year. I wont repeat it, I told him I wouldnt even tell my mother. I will tell you guys this, though: i wouldnt bet on this team under any circumstances the rest of the year. You dont necesarily need to bet against them, just dont bet on them. That is how strongly I feel about what I heard.
Long story short: 3rd upset I see this week in the Big 12.
I'm going to pass on the other games, for now. I have a slight lean towards Oklahoma... I might have a total play in the TT/Texas game.
Also... I discussed in another thread that I like to play pleasers... They are reverse-teasers for those that havent played them... you take two or more teams and have to give points instead of receiving, but you get sick odds...
Anyhow, I posted a theory about these plays: find small chalk that you think can win straight up... because, for instance, you need to tease 6 points. So a team that is +4.5 only need to win by 2 or more points to qualify.
Anyhow, I have made some money on these this year... so I told BLG I would post possible plays if I see them, especially inside the Big 12.
Here is my first posted pleaser:
Baylor -1/ Iowa St. -1.5. 25/150
--- I actually like this one quite a bit. I see both of these teams winning... and those are the types of lines that make for good pleaser betting.
But, for instance, even though I think Colorado will win... I dont believe that to be a good game to put in a pleaser. It should be a tight game, and I could easily see Colorado winning by 4 or less... but the odds arent very low that they run away with the game... so that isnt the type of game I would look for.
Anyhow, just posted that for those interested... they are very interesting bets... and you get very excited when they hit (especially with 3 or more teams).
Anyhow fellas... best of luck this weekend...
Iowa St. +4.5 (@KSU)
--- I believe Iowa St. wins this one outright. They have been terrible this season, but KSU is a very bad team... ISU has 10x the talent that the Cats have... I think McCarney makes the necesary adjustments to pull this one out...
Baylor +5 (TAMU)
--- Underrated at home vs. overrated on the road. Love these games.
Baylor will spread out the Aggies, and I think Bell is going to be able to nickle and dime them down the field throughout the game. The Bears have absolutely no running game... but they dont really need one with the passing attack... I think if Morriss feels like they need to run, they can mix that in as well.
TAMU is due for a down week... they cant keep pulling out these close ones... a play here and there and they are 0-4 in conference... their 3 wins there have all been tight, throughout... They havent convinced me they are a good team, and I use that term loosely.
Once again, I think Baylor wins outright.
Nebraska -5.5 (@OSU)
--- OSU is a young team that doesnt have the horses yet to hang in games with big-time teams, IMO. They dont have an impressive win yet this season.
The Huskers are still an underrated team, in my eyes. They would have beaten the Longhorns were it not for a late fumble, and if that hadnt occured this line would probably be -7 and above. So I think there is a little bit of value, here.
They have a balanced attack, and I think they keep the young Pokes off balance, and win by double figures.
Colorado +2 (@KU)
--- Just kill me. We are about to lose to a 1-7 team at home.
KU could win by 21 and I wouldnt be surprised, so let me preface with that... But there are legit reasons to take the points with CU:
1. Adam Barmann is starting. Bad, bad, bad quarterback. If CU knows what its doing, they will put pressure on him all game long and force him to hurry his throws... in which case the Hawks will have 5 TO's. Seriously.
2. The 2nd half implosions have taken a toll on the team... especially the defense, which has come under fire... they are young, so intead of getting fired up, its probably to the point of being demoralizing, now.
3. The campus has turned on the team. Really. Its sad, actually. I am probably the biggest fan that this team has on its campus... I have nothing to do on Saturday... and I gave up my ticket. I refuse to support this years team again by taking the time to go the stadium. I NEVER EVER thought I would do this... and by no means am I a fair weather fan... I wont support Mangino, and I wont support the '06 team again. Now imagine if an absolute die-hard fan is doing this, what will happen with the rest of the students/season ticket holders. The sports editor of The Kansan wrote a good article this week where he said he wouldnt go again this season either, and he expected many to follow that lead. In other words, Memorial Stadium is going to be dead.
4. I have a tip... that I absolutely promised my buddy I wouldnt divulge... he is a sports beat writer for The Kansan... he got a tip from someone he knows... if its true, it would rock college football... and would make perfect sense of a lot of things this year. I wont repeat it, I told him I wouldnt even tell my mother. I will tell you guys this, though: i wouldnt bet on this team under any circumstances the rest of the year. You dont necesarily need to bet against them, just dont bet on them. That is how strongly I feel about what I heard.
Long story short: 3rd upset I see this week in the Big 12.
I'm going to pass on the other games, for now. I have a slight lean towards Oklahoma... I might have a total play in the TT/Texas game.
Also... I discussed in another thread that I like to play pleasers... They are reverse-teasers for those that havent played them... you take two or more teams and have to give points instead of receiving, but you get sick odds...
Anyhow, I posted a theory about these plays: find small chalk that you think can win straight up... because, for instance, you need to tease 6 points. So a team that is +4.5 only need to win by 2 or more points to qualify.
Anyhow, I have made some money on these this year... so I told BLG I would post possible plays if I see them, especially inside the Big 12.
Here is my first posted pleaser:
Baylor -1/ Iowa St. -1.5. 25/150
--- I actually like this one quite a bit. I see both of these teams winning... and those are the types of lines that make for good pleaser betting.
But, for instance, even though I think Colorado will win... I dont believe that to be a good game to put in a pleaser. It should be a tight game, and I could easily see Colorado winning by 4 or less... but the odds arent very low that they run away with the game... so that isnt the type of game I would look for.
Anyhow, just posted that for those interested... they are very interesting bets... and you get very excited when they hit (especially with 3 or more teams).
Anyhow fellas... best of luck this weekend...
but always happy to see when you're on the same side. GL and continued success. :mj06: