Round 1 plays (4pts unless stated):
Jason Dufner to beat Bubba Watson +120 @ 5Dimes
I'll take these odds to back the Dufman. He is a difficult player to gauge this year, but his best three finishes in the U.S. have come in the two Majors there and the last WGC event. He was also 26th at the British Open (ahead of Watson) so he is clearly motivated by the big tournaments this year. With a top-10 finish on his course debut in 2012 and Bubba having a best finish of 19th in three attempts, these appear good odds in this type of event.
Nick Watney to beat Billy Horschel -110 @ 5Dimes
Horschel is a long way from the form that saw him play so well between March and June: he is averaging in excess of 72 per round over his last four events. He is also making his debut, not only on this course and debutants do not have a good record in this event, but he is also making his debut in a WCG event. That is how much his run of form lifted him in the World Rankings. I don't see him competing against a player in the top-30 of the World Rankings who, far from making his debut in a WGC event, has won one of these titles.
Jamie Donaldson to beat Thorbjorn Olesen -105 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes]
A great price to oppose Olesen who has missed the cut in seven of his last eight strokeplay events and in the only cut that he did make (Scottish Open), he finished 67th. Donaldson has yet to shoot a higher 1st round score than Olesen in 2013 and with a couple of top-10 finishes in his last three starts, he should easily beat his opponent in this matchup.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Johnson Z tb Cabrera -111; Pettersson tb Lynn]
