Round 3 plays (2pts):
Angel Cabrera to beat Paul Casey -120 @ The Greek [also available @ 5Dimes, Stan James, William Hill and Carib]
Cabrera has hit his drives further and straight than Casey so far this week and hit more greens in regulation, so he is playing better this week and is not just in better form. And as it is almost two years since Cabrera failed to shoot a lower rd3 or rd4 score than Casey, I'll back him again in this position.
Jason Dufner to beat Keegan Bradley +115 @ Bet365
Bradley may be the defending champion, but he is in the final pairing with Tiger on the day after that round. This will be an intimidating environment and it is one in which he has rarely played well in the past. He has been paired with Tiger five times previously and shot 74-68-77-71-74. As pointed out earlier, Dufner appears to raise his game for these type of events, so these look generous odds on a player only two shots behind Bradley in 6th place.
Brandt Snedeker to beat Graeme McDowell -130 @ 5Dimes [also available @ The Greek and Carib]
Backing the player who is in better form - not only did he win the Canadian Open last week, but he has finished ahead of McDowell in eight of their last eleven common events - and performs better when not in contention: over the past 12 months, Snedeker has been outside the top-30 at the start of rd3 on seven occasions and on every occasion he has finished rd3 higher up the leaderboard than he started it, including a 60 in rd3 of the WGC-HSBC Champions in November; GMac has also been in this position seven times of the last 12 months, but averages over 71 from that position.
[unofficial rd3 system plays: Mickelson tb Westwood -110; Kuchar tb Els -135]
