Round 4 plays (6pts):
Matt Kuchar to beat Tiger Woods +100 @ Paddy Power
Opposing Tiger who is 15 shots off the pace and, over and above his physical limitations, is struggling with his long and his short game this week and that is putting pressure on the rest of his game - he hit only seven greens in regulation yesterday. With the PGA Championship next week, this round will likely be a preparation round with more tinkering of his swing. This is only the fourth time in the last five years that he has been 15+ shots off the lead at the start of the final round - in the previous three occasions, he has shot 77-72-75 and fallen 4-10 shots further back during round 4. A similar pattern is expected today, but not from Kuchar who has never fallen more than one more shot off the pace in rd4 when starting it 15+ shots off the pace in the last five years.
Bubba Watson to beat Tiger Woods +110 @ The Greek [available generally]
Same for Bubba as for Kuchar - he has been 15+ shots off the pace at the start of the final round on seven previous occasions in the last five years and has averaged less than 70 in rd4 from that position. He has driven the ball further and straighter and hit more greens in regulation than Tiger, so the value is with Bubba in this matchup.