Hi guys! Nice to have a long break, pity about the flu bug currently rife in our household
Will post some 1st round plays in a while - still hoping the North Americans books won't boycott this event as well - but here's my preview for now
Two years ago five of the top-seven in the world rankings lost in the first round; this year only one will even tee up and that which such disdain that he will arrive in town the night before and will not have even looked at the course before teeing off. The timing and location of the event have been much criticized and the former is certainly justified, but as the overseas players have reported, there can be no complaints about the hosting of the event at Metropolitan. Lehman has compared the course to Augusta and Muirfield Village, no small praise indeed!
Local knowledge and acclimatization will be important this week and no-one is being touted more than local player, Robert Allenby who boasts 22 years of experience on this course. This has been reflects in the prices for this event, but as he admits, the emphasis will be on hitting fairways and finding the greens this week. This will not be a birdie-fest, but a touch challenge and the matchplay format only increases the importance of being patient and putting the pressure on your opponent by hitting the greens in regulation. Allenby's greens in regulation stats are not particularly impressive and he faces a tough 3rd round match against Hal Sutton (if fit), before playing Harrington or Leonard the following day. I favor Harrington to prevail and possibly win the event outright. He will not face a Southern Hemisphere until Allenby, so the local edge will be blunted, plus he has a good matchplay record as a pro and an amateur and has a game suited to this course.
In the lower half of the draw, the other outright pick is Bob May. He boasts a 5th place finish at the Vines in the Heineken Classic last year - his only recent outing in Australia - but he travels well and finished 2nd and 4th in two events in Japan at the end of November. His only hurdle before the 4th round could be Maruyama, but the result will be a match will the winner of the "eighth of death" which includes Singh, Taniguchi, Flesch and Appleby. May could face a tired opponent and a semi-final place will secure at least a place win.
In the top half of the draw, Michael Campbell looks the play. His toughest match should come in the 2nd round against Izawa who has been very impressive on the Japan Tour. Other than that match, I cannot see anyone else blocking his way to the semi-finals. He has the best overall stats of anyone in this week's field and does not have the problem of acclimatization to contend with. A Campbell-Harrington final is my prediction for the week!
In the top quarter, I do think that Els is vulnerable to an early defeat. If Tanaka does not beat the under-prepared South African, then Waldorf has every much a chance. The winner of that match will play for a semi-final place - and hence a place win - against the winner from the weakest eighth which boasts only Coltart, Huston and Parry at best. The 100/1 on offer for Waldorf @ DAS is very tempting, but in line with normal practice, three outright plays will be made and Waldorf is passed over.
Outright plays:
Padraig Harrington to win 33/1 e/w @
Surrey
Bob May to win 66/1 e/w @
DAS
Michael Campbell to win 18/1 e/w @
Sportingbet or
Simon Bold