WGC World Matchplay

Ian

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2nd Round plays
O'Hern to beat Herron +100 Hills

Sorely tempted to have Taniguchi over Singh current best line is +200 but have backed him outright at 150-1 1/4 4 so might leave it

Stan who the hell sent you hate mail?
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Stanley

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2nd round plays:

Retief Goosen to beat Jean van de Velde -137 @ Ladbrokes [2 units]
Chris Perry to beat Brad Faxon -120 @ William Hill [2 units]
Bob May to beat Shigeki Maruyama -120 @ Five Dimes


The Starnet books have now joined Five Dimes and Easybets in offering lines for this event. Slowly, the word 'world' is becoming applicable to this event
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As alternatives to the above Euro book plays, Sportfanatik offer -140 on Goosen and Five Dimes offer -130 on Perry. From these two books alone there are a couple of reasonable scalps based around differing opinions about the Japanese players: Campbell -225 Five Dimes & Izawa +300 Sportfanatik; Singh -245 Five Dimes & Taniguchi +300 Sportfanatik
 

Ian

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That +300 Taniguchi is way too big over 18 holes he is a very good matchplayer. I know Singh is as well but the odds should not be that high
I wish I had account there as I would increase my original bet
 

dawgball

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I hope you guys don't mind a quick question.

In Stanley's last post he posted that Campbell (-225) @ 5Dimes and Izawa (+300) at Sportfanatik.

I may be reading this wrong, so please correct me if I am.

So if I:
Bet $1000 on Campbell @ 5Dimes--win $444.50 or lose $1000
Bet $450 on Izawa @ Sportfanatik-- win $1350 or lose $450.
Overall--Lose $5.50 or win $350.

Is this correct or not? I feel like this is such a rookie question, but I have never wagered on golf so I guess I am a rookie.


------------------
Sic 'em
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Ian

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You are correct
Simple scalp ask IE I believe he is the expert
Basically no matter who wins you do
Not just on golf but any sport check out money lines I just posted in NFL
PS BE QUICK LINES WILL BE DOWN SOON not sure of exact tee off times
 

Stanley

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Dawgball, there may be a quicker way, but I use the following formulas (in Excel) to work out the size of the scalp and the relative wager sizes:

(1) Convert the moneyline odds in decimal format

For favorites, use the expression 1-(100/odds)

So -225 is 1-(100/-225) = 1.44

For dogs, use the expression (100+odds)/100

So +300 is (100+300)/100 = 4.00


(2) Calculate the relative wager sizes:

For both, use the expression odds/(odds + other odds)

So for example above, for the favorite:

Relative wager size is 4.00/(1.44+4.00) = 72.5%

For the dog:

Relative wager size is 1.44/(1.44+4.00) = 26.5%


(3) Use either to calculate the size of the scalp:

Favorite wager size * favorite odds:

73.5% * 1.44 = 1.06

Dog wager size * dog odds:

26.5% * 4.00 = 1.06

Hence there is a 6% scalp on the -225/+300 lines. I wager $735 on the favorite and $265 on the dog to make a guaranteed profit of $60.

Hope this helps. Like I said, easiest if just written as a 4*2 table in Excel.
 

dawgball

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Much obliged!

I would love to have that emailed to me at jmoore@micajah.com.

Thanks again guys.



------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
 

Stanley

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2nd round update: 0-3 and -6.34 units

Yikes! Goosen was roundly beaten 4&3 by van de Velde, Perry was edged out by one hole and May should have won. Maruyama holed monster, across-two-levels putts on the 17th & 18th holes to take into extra time. May thinned his chip through the green on the 4th extra hole and that was that
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Means just one outright play survives: Campbell won 5&4 and needs two more wins to secure a place finish, though it looks like we might need him to win this event outright!

Three definite plays for the third round: Toru Taniguchi to beat Stuart Appleby, Michael Campbell to beat Pierre Fulke and Andrew Coltart to beat Craig Stadler. Hoping for some good lines and more importantly, some good luck.
 

Stanley

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Yesterday was definitely not my day!

In the second round, only six of the higher-seeded players won their matches. From the ratings on my site, TEN of the 16 higher-ranked players won their matches, plus Taniguchi was ranked just one place behind Singh at #5.

And I managed to pick a clean sweep of three losers
eek.gif
 

Ian

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Spent the morning covering the Taniguchi bet in the bottom quarter of the draw as some books offering 1/4 odds 1st 4 still and players only have to win 2 more matches to get there
Taken 10-1 Appleby ew
28-1 McNulty ew
and Maruyama -120 to beat McNulty at Simonbold
which I think is a generous price
 

dawgball

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Received the email, Ian. Thanks for the assistance. It will probably take me a little while to figure it out.
 

Stanley

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3rd round plays:

Toru Taniguchi to beat Stuart Appleby +162 @ Easybets
Michael Campbell to beat Pierre Fulke -154 @ DAS [3 units]
Andrew Coltart to beat Craig Stadler -120 @ Easybets [2 units]
Justin Leonard to beat Steve Stricker -145 @ WSEX

No lines from the Starnet books tonight, but a welcome addition of WSEX to the fray who offer a 2nd-best +150 on Taniguchi as well.
 

Stanley

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3rd round update: 1-3 and -6.85 units

Jeez! What do I have to do to have a winning day? Stricker was 9-under-par through 13 holes and should not have been underestimated, but Coltart was 3 up with six holes to play, but lost in a playoff after missing a seven-foot putt, while another huge thirty-five-foot putt on 18th killed off one of my matchup & outright picks, this time Michael Campbell who lost by one hole. Taniguchi was a good win at large odds, but this is one frustrating start to the year
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Ian, I wish I had your problem of deciding what to do to hedge your profits
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[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 01-05-2001).]
 
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