What are the............

[barfly]

characteristics you look for in a solid capper?

With all the new cappers posting their plays here, I was just curious how do you determine who's the goose that lays the golden egg, or instead, farts ya out a bag of $hit

For example, There is NOT one capper on this board, or any other for that matter, that I respect who brags about himself or his plays. I'm not going to name everyone that I respect, but think about it, Have ya ever heard gsp, kcwolf, or IE(just to name a few) telling anybody to get on a play large, or talk about what a great capper they are. Nope ya sure haven't. All 3 of the named cappers post solid plays and offer nothing but solid advice to their fellow cappers. I guess what I'm trying to say is that a humble capper is a good sign that a person TRULY understands this game we all call gambling.

------------------
Make mine a Double!,
Barfly

 

[SixFive]

agree. A good capper doesn't need to give props to themselves. If u r good, people will find that out themselves. I also like to see people who are around win or lose. Can't stand when people are all over the place on a winning day then disappear when they lose.

I don't like GOY, Lock, and various other tout verbage.

I also like a guy who plays a lot of dogs ats or ml like yourself fly.

Lastly, I like guys who know how to post pictures, lmao! Good luck!

------------------
It's far better to be LUCKY than good.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Howdy Fearless Since you asked!
1st and foremost would be long term accountability.I made remark after 2nd week of foots when there were 20 or more touting W-L records that by years end there would be a handfull.I respect those cappers that have kept accurate stats at accurate lines for years running.They may not come out on + side in every sport every year but report them equally knowing that they have the confidence that they will.
With that being said there are those that choose not to log W/L stats that are equally golden gooses.Especially those that specialize in home state data like North Carolina

the MAC,hometown hoops,boxing and almost anyone tha resides in New Zealand

Takes a few years to hunt these out cause as you stated most are very low keyed and would slip through the virtual cracks to those not already aware of their capabilities.
Just my opinion,and as always there are exceptions and what I look for may be totally different than the next guy so I guess it boils down to whatever floats ones boat.

 

[yyz]

I used to keep my record posted in my thread. Not to brag, because I don't turn a profit doing this. I always thought that would be a way for people to see if I was hot or cold.

I have stopped posting the record, because I believe the only value it has, is to me. Why should you give a shit if I'm 10-1 or 1-10?

This place is supposed to be for giving out information on a pick.....not our personal records.

I like to read analysis on a pick. I want to know why I should like Old Tech "huge!" or as your G.O.Y.

The thing is, this question pops up over and over in here, every few months. I, personally, don't think there are 6 guys in here who are handicappers. I think most of us throw darts, and hope for that 10-2 day, so we can say, "Where's my pat on the head?"

Time, and time again, I beg for peaople to give a little info on their favorite/local teams......it always falls on deaf ears.

Sure, people say they will help out, but they never do.

I always try to give some reasoning behind my selections. That is one of the reasons I only post a limited amount of plays.

I bet a ton of plays, some based on information found here, and some just on my need to have action.

In post on plays I have studied for that day, or on games I am watching. (Half-time wagers)

I think plenty of people do the viewers of the forum a great disservice, by posting "piggyback" plays.

Someone respected in here posts a play, and 10 people chime in with, "My thoughts, too!" "I couldn't agree more!" and so on. This can be harmful to anyone who is new here, and doesn't smell this out.

We had a game this past Saturday, that was touted by one of our big posters, and a shitload chimed in. Well, guess what? A ton of people who saw this post could have blindly followed that, and lost huge. The game was a blowout. Now, I ask you.....how could so many people in here have "handicapped" that game wrong?

Quite simple......they didn't do any handicapping! They rode coat tails! They wanted to look like they knew their shit, by following a respected capper from here. Now, I don't fault the guy who posted the play. He thought he was plating a winner. We all have games week in, and week out that are total disasters. I don't blame him, or anyone for having the outcome wrong. But this was not a MNF game, where you only have one game to cap, thus several oppinion one one side. It was a Saturday full of games, and the "piggybackers" made this play look like everyone picked this game based on their handicapping. So, I really wish this stuff would stop.

One of the only "true" handicappers in here, is Nolan. He gives you reasons for his stance on a game. Win or lose, he at least gets me thinking about a game. I've stayed off of games and bet games based on his spin. That is what a good handicapper will do.

JTSneaks gave great posts about hoops last season, and has done well by posting this season, as well. There are a few others, and I'm sorry that I can't give everyone the credit they deserve in such a short time.

Now.....for the nuts, and bolts. A little pat on my own back, too.

I am not always right when I pick a play on one of "my" teams, but I am right more often than not. Being from Wisconsin, my teams are the Brewers, Bucks, Packers, and Badgers. I like my teams.....I follow my teams. I've often said, that if I only wagered on the games involving my teams, I would be rich. Any of you who know me from here, know that most of my write-ups are on my teams. You also know that I win more of these plays than I lose. I am not a homer. I bet against my teams when the handicapping calls for it. But.....this is what I expect from all of you guys, and it never seems to happen!

Just imagine if a dozen guys in here gave reliable picks each week on "their" team. I mean a solid, well handicapped play. Completely honest. Passing if they can't find an edge, screaming to us if they see a big edge, etc. Do you know what kind of scratch we could haul down in here?

If I gave you 5 tips a week this basketball season, and won 3 of them, you would make money. Take that other 11 guys, have them do the same, and none of us would need to work. I don't know why this concept is so hard for the forum to grasp.

I may have slipped from the topic a bit, so I am sorry for that. In closing, I guess what I look for in a capper is this:

Give me a reason to risk my money on your play.

Thanks, and good luck.

Eric

 

[dawgball]

yyz-

The things that you are talking about is exactly what many of the people on the board look for. 4bubba puts tons of effort to try and make the NFL match-up forum work on those principles. I try and give input about the Bengals, Falcons, and Georgia Bulldogs. I also don't think my picks are worth publishing, but I do read some little bits of information that are helpful sometimes.

I do not write anything about Georgia because there is no place to do it. It gets lost in amongst the other posts because of people's picks. I think there are several people here that try and contribute to the Match-up forum, though.

But when you submit a bit of information, it gets lost on the forum because the flaming posts push it to the bottom. It's sad, but it's not a new thing. It has been happening here for a couple of years now.

There are still a lot of people on this board that have that team mentality, but it's just harder to find their information. I am no handicapper, so I usually do not post my plays. I will post an opinion in the Match-up forum, though. This has been my favorite place for information.

All we can do is keep doing what you're doing and hope it catches on.

Good luck

------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[djv]

Wow this is a great thread. I hope I add something to it. I have seen a few weeks my humble picks that range from 1 to 3 units max. Have gone against many of the top dogs here. Im glad that means I do at least do my own work. YYZ makes a good point. He is no homer. I believe in that. Last two games I played against G Bay. I hate it when they loose. But they were favs so they could win and so could I. Well I did but thet went 1 & 1. This week I thought Iowa was the play. I said so. I lost. Im happy for Wisky but out the doe. I do a stat review of every college game each week. I mean stats im sure half the folks here have never even seen or heard of. I do the same for the pros. So many here say the same thing. You cant win just useing stats. Well I use more then that. But they are the main stearing wheel for me. I would place some of that in here. However I have come to see all anyone wants is. Throw up 6,7 maybe 12 picks that say play these. So I just do the same. Its a shame in a way. My wife as my only witness would tell you this. She hopes im making some money for all the hours I put into this. I would estimate 26 to 29 hours a week. Does not sound like much. But with a full time job and a home to keep up. It's plenty. I end my thoughts with this. Either you do the work or you will loose. If as yyz said we could get some folks to give us there best from there area. Heck I be glad to do the same. Even if it means YYZ says Wisky and I say no way. Lay off or go the other way. But at lest you will know why we both said why we said it. One last point thet shows this can work I was haveing tough time with the mac. Hey it looked like everyone was. Then here comes a Mac guy knows whats going on there. Last three weeks have a nice profit out of the mac. Not a 70/80 % bull shit one But around 64%. Then he apologies for that. Are you kidding me. Give me some more. Hellah10 is his posting code name if you missed it. It's like Fletch. I want to see what he has on the wac & mountain conf. I don't always agree with him either. But he knows it better then I do. GL to all

[This message has been edited by djv (edited 11-05-2001).]

 

[fletcher]

so you are saying tips are'nt worth a shit yyz? anybody can write shit and thoughts on a game to make it look good ,its even easier when you are a writter for a living,well some people also do this for a living and don't have time to do full page write ups nor do they get paid to do them,so keep following big write ups from english majors and journalist that can make anything sound good but fail to hit 500 or so on most sports throughout the year but hey they sound good and people won't be playing this game long because they will be broke,better yet try doing some work on your own then compair and learn,the good one is i look for the guys that play dogs those are the real handicappers,well let me tell you picking a winner is picking a winner its all in your gut what you feel comfortable with there is no written rule that says dog players make the money,fact is try picking a few favroities if you suck as a handicapper it really will show even more in baseball,hell even a blind dog can hit a hole once in a while when playing dogs. but to hit once in awhile if you play favorities you willnot be around long. it all is what works for you and what and why you do this,i would say there might be no more then what you can count on one hand that make a living doing this here only not as a writter and other jobs/handicapper just paying the bill have money to do things own health insurence and retirement plan from handicapping and only handicapping. most people on here have 9-5 jobs where they don't have to worry about games and have the time to do there little write ups because after their 8 hours they are done with work and know they have a check at the end of each week with there benifits add on,well some don't and work 80-90 hours a week so write ups might just be alittle harder for them,and some info is not for passing on be happy you get the out come of that info.

 

[AzRusty]

I'm not really a handicapper. There for awhile I thought well...if I'm not handicapping the games then maybe I don't even belong here!

I have since come to some sort of peace with myself in that if I can use this board to find information and make my own decisions based on information that I glean from certain posters then it is at least a valuable tool to me. And when I find information that I think might be useful to someone I pass it on.

One thing that I do not do is play consensus plays! That's suicidal....and I learned it the hard way. Who's to tell in a string where everyone chimes in and says me too that the decision wasn't just one person's opinion that was dittoed over and over?

If I see sound reason for a play or if I buy into a certain argument then I make the play!
And if certain posters that I respect and follow are on opposite sides of a game I usually just leave it alone!

Thanks for your thoughts

I love this board

AzRusty

 

[goldcupsports]

Fletcher,

I agree with you 100% Sure writeups are nice for some of the foks on this forum. It gives some guys a way to lean after they read all the stats and facts that this writer has compiled and may sway your decision one way or another. I think that the true test is overall record over a long period of time regardless if they provide a write-up or not. If you are looking for winners on any forum you have to implement what DTB has done. He caps the cappers and from what I here does pretty well at it. I think one thing that is missing from the forums is local information. There are guys all over the USA which never provide information that they hear from local outlets. Case in point I emailed lots of folks early Sunday morning telling them to jump on Texas @ what ever number appeared. Well late Saturday night early Sunday morning it was speculated that The head coach for Kansas was being fired. All my friends got this information at least 6 hours before it hit the news or the internet. One thing I will give props to is this forum sure there is alot of flaming going on at times but it sure beats the hell out of anything else that's out there. Jack you have built a very solid community. Hats off to you and your staff.

[This message has been edited by goldcupsports (edited 11-05-2001).]

 

[djv]

Azrusty will be good to see you in Vegas. I need some neck and a little hip work done. My insurance wil cover it. Or lets just make some nice bucks on the SB. Fletch I don't think YYZ is trying to be a smart chit. It may be you guys just see through differant parts of the glass. Anyway a few guys that know ther stuff from a few differant parts of the country. Can't hurt if they say that and put info in here. We can all decide to use it or what ever. I also agree a large write up is not always needed. Hell I cant say typeing is one of my best functions. I do see where if some one is very strong on a play. A few short reasons cant hurt. I guess it comes down to what jerks your chain the best. And I don't have all those answers.

 

[dr. freeze]

i could write up a huge report which could convince any novice gambler to take a side.....then i could write up a huge report to take the other side and he would do so......
for example, someone wrote that TB is this and that after this happens and this goes to 90% play last weekend....he won but...another guy could just have easily showed how GB dominated TB the last 20 years at lambeau and how home favs are killing everyone in the nfc central.....

point is, there is so much useless info being written about that it is hard to sort through on this website while also there is some valuable info......

records are important.....very important....and they must be legitimate......

here is what everyone needs to know at madjacks......Handicapping is in the PRESENT with the PRESENT teams and that is where everything MUST begin.....solid handicapping is gonna produce bad beats and some bad picks but the important thing is to be on the right side more often than not.....and yes sometimes the right side loses.....thus -- records are EXTREMELY important because they detail competence

 

[buddy]

Fletcher's right...It's not about betting dogs or FAVS...it's about the edge that you're handicapping reveals.

Seeing a write up or analysis makes one feel that the handicapper did his homework, but otoh, there are probably thousands of sportsbettors waiting each week with baited breath for Fletcher's Five Stars...and I've never seen or do I care about one word of analysis.

On Saturday, there were 48 games on the card...23 FAVS covered versus 25 dogs. It's +/- 2 every week. Check it out.

Handicapping is the experience of knowing which info is meaningful or meaningless, and more importantly, how to interpret the info once you have it.

Vegas is the friggin' master at creating an illusion in the bettors mind...that is why so many newbies say, "This game's a lock", only to be shocked at the outcome.

Boasting doesn't bother me in the least. This is friggin cyberspace. Boasting comes with the territory.

It does rub my fur the wrong way when someone says, "Hey, I'm looking at such and such for Saturday. Need some info on the game. Info appreciated."

IE created the most valuable resource imagineable with the "Fooball Resources" section.

Just really pisses me off when someone expects someone else to do the work for them.

If you're gonna' lurk...then lurk. Don't clutter up the board with nonsensical bullshit.

 

[goldcupsports]

Very well said buddy...

 

[djv]

Buddy that was perfect jusy PERFECT. AND I hope a few folks read this and understand. Do some dam work. It's all in the data base here and many other places.

 

[MadJack]

characteristics you look for in a solid capper?

the ability to pick winners. i don't give a shit how they come up with their plays. if he/she picks consistant winners over a long period of time, i listen, period!

mostly, i do it all on my own, but when i get into losing streaks (like the whole year 2000) i sometimes pick and choose some plays from some experienced, well documented, cappers from this site.

right, fletch (saturday)

there are all types that post here so there should be something for everybody. if you don't like someone's particular 'style', don't read it.

thanks for everybody's contributions to this site. EVERYBODYS'!!!!

 

[MadJack]

this is 2001, right? that's what i meant.

 

[Big Daddy]

The thing I look for in a capper is how much he understands the mental part of the game, and not just the X's and O's, or the stats. Sorry Fletch, but I am going to use you as an example here. I take Fletch's picks very seriously because I know he was a former coach, and I think he understands how players think and react in different instances, how players are affected by a long road trip, how players respond after flying coast-to-coast for a game, how players feel after a long bus ride, are players happy, getting along, and hungry to compete (Example: Bears), or coasting and fighting on the sidelines every time something goes wrong (Example: Vikings). These are the things I believe a former coach or player may have an easier time understanding. By no means do I think you can't be a good capper without having played or coached, but I do think it is an advantage when it comes to looking at the whole picture.

 

[Gatorbait]

W's and L's.....period.......and if they hit the binger before they cap....that's even better

.........write-ups shmite-ups....just W's......right Fly man

 

[djv]

Gator how much you want to arm wrestle me for out in Vegas. Remember your 20 years younger then me. Need some odds like can a little old guy hang in there 3 seconds 5 seconds 10 seconds. How about 10 dollars for every second over 2. MJ and Fletch can score. Now if I would get lucky and get you down that's got-a-be worth 50 bucks. And I will be up front with you. Im just a little old guy. I do pull my pud once a week to keep my strenght up.

Did G B win this week I was busy working out.

 

[Padre]

Well i do believe that this is a great topic.

I would like to address a few points, AZRusty said it best , we do need to find out if a consenus pick, isnt just a bunch of coattailers all posting the same pick over and over again. I do faithfully follow the Hiltons picks each week, but the only reason way is they have to get their picks in then the consenus is then posted. So i do believe that kind of consenus is valuable.(Although i was a little concerned at the #1 pick last week,PIT, the resaon is it was also picked by NOlan early in the week on Tuesday, so i thought that maybe alot of them decieded to also go with it. which in essence put it at the #1 pick)

BUt getting back on topic, personally i do not think i have seen anyone , and i mean anyone do so much and KEEP accurate records(much more on that later) for nothing. And i think everyone knows who i am thinking about. Nolan.period. I even respect the fact he justnt add the wheel teasers and prop bets in is record. He seriously tries to hit at 60% every year, and beleive me we all know that is difficult to do.

But i will say this, and i am sure i will either wake up a few sleeping giants here and piss off alot of them here as well, with what i am about to say. And i know that i will catch heat from them - with the ol "well i dont see you adding anything to the disscussion" and the ol "well i dont see your picks" Reason is i cant pick my nose or even break my leg let alone break even on my gambling. And as for any "local" info that i might offer on my teams, chargers and padres, well anything that i hear, see, or witness, generally is in the major news within hours anyway. So i agree with what someone says dont ask me to take extra time to post this info when you can get better info at espn.

But back to what i think will catch heat and that is posters here that "at times" do a good job posting their picks but have terrible math skilss and post a "inaccurate record"

Now i dont want a big debate on this the truth is in the database here.PERIOD I have gone back to find out just how good some of these people are here, and well i found out. And when i see their records well they are wrong. I have only found that IE, Jack and Nolan to have accurate records maybe it has something to do with they post everyday and do so on the Free picks page, or simply they have integrity, i dont know but i am tried of seeing posts that state that for this sport i am up over 58.4 units. Then i go back and they are up just 2.1 units.

See as i think it is more important to have good money management then it is to have a good record. As we all know someone can go 68% in the NBA or NFL but if it is not bet properly then they may have nothing to show for it.

And as much as i dont want to upset this poster, because i dont want turn this into a debate, please and i mean please i do not want to flame at each other but the facts are there. And i have thought about this for some time and have not had enough courage to say this. Most of the reason is how respected this poster is and how much he does bring to this forum. But some people have called him out on this many times, and i have seen things get out of hand on the forum. AND I DO NOT WANT THAT TO HAPPEN WITH THIS DISCUSSION. BUt i have to do it only to make a point for what i think will be very valuable to all of us. And Fletcher i am sorry, but i want to get this out.

REmember this is only to make a point as to why we need to standardize records and or betting ideas. But after i have gone back on Fletchers(And Fletcher i hate to use you as an example b/c u do offer alot of help) believe i have done this on just about everyone, only to try and find a good capper to follow(remember i suck, i have never taken a withdrawal from my accounts for 4 years, and have sent tons of money to them) BUt i follow his picks in all sports and followed his * system, sorry but i only came out on top in one sport in the past two years with him.(remember everyone can do the same thing with the search function of this site) Research people but i could be wrong but i have not seen a profit with him, with the way he bets, SORRY. But take on this is why bet one * games , why not only bet 5* games, but that is another subject. Point is posters may show good w-l records and high units results , but i have gone back and researched alot of people here and well i have not found many that have been accurate. I even remeber a post that got WAY out of hand when someone actually called him out on it and things go out of control. It was something about how he made the bet at night at the casino with his wife as a witness. BUt im sorry that did nothing for any of us in here, so please dont add into your results.I feel that the only record keeping that should be done is valid and unedited posts should be included, not what u did at your sportsbook or casino. That just not help anyone here.

IN fact i even tried to address this with u back at the beginning of the baseball seasonbut it went on deaf ears, and that is exactually what is happening all over the place. (CHeck post dated 4-03-01 titled games by Fletcher) as u can see i think i have more posts with inaccurate results than i do with accurate ones(not all by fletcher that have inaccurate stats.) I think that is misleading to all of us unless u have done the research to know the difference.

But i think that Barfly has a good standard that everyone should follow, BTW Barfly u too have inaccurate stats as well. And the reason that i that he was something that we should all use is because it lets you know how he is doing all year in all sports. But i dont like the idea of units, although most of u do, but IE actually puts $$$ figures on his picks. But i have seen it far too manyy times misleading results and fights over the value of some damn *, Yes fletcher that is a terrible system, how much difficult is it for u or anyone to post $1000 on ABC Over, instead of 2* on ABC Over, trust me and i mean i do not see much arguement , in doing it your way, far too many new comers come to the site and it is far easier to read the monetary amounts then it is to read star systems. BUt i think that this might very well be the problem with the inaccurate stats, well i think alot of the problems are because u and others simply screw up the conversions as well.

BUt back to the point, i think that everyone should keep good and accurate records and post everytime they post, and let us know how u do your money mangement, show us everytime. I think i much rather have that then why u like a pick , hell someone can be 1-46 in the NFL and do one hellva writeup on a game and well i would question where this cat has been getting his info, nad to let him know that it has been crap and that he needs to reevaluate his capping. (BTW the cat i just metioned is me

) but without his record then i wouldnot know how to consider his info.

To wrap this up, I love this place, i love everyone in here, i take nothing personal, we are here to help each other. I can not help on the picks , SOrry, i just suck.

But what i think i can do is to get some knid of format or template that everyone uses to post their picks by so that we can get a good idea how u r doing. I dont want to turn it into a contest between people or pissing contests on picks but just a way to see just how good someone is over the long term.

i got to go, i am terrible at typing and rhetoric, i wish i could talk personally to everyone, so u could understand my thoughts and my tempo on things so that things do not get taken out of context.

later.