Who will be going with PEDRO @ -300+ ??

[Big_Mack]

Here's a few numbers .... I am going to put a small amount on the Bo Sox ... Hell with numbers like these I have to..

Pedro last 4 starts vs. Baltimore going back to 5/12/00
(3 WINS & 1 ND)
(1 ER in 29 IP)
(AVG 9 K's & 1 BB per game)

Hard to go against those #'s even at that price... G/L if you go with the Bo Sox..



* NOTICE* :director: I will not be held responsible for people who bet on Boston if they loose... k

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

A quote from Jeff Allen

" BET YOUR HOUSE ON IT, IT WON'T LOSE, I PROMISE"

HAHAHAHAHAH

Pedro will smoke Balt tomorrow, but I have a new rule nothing over -150, going to make an exception this time though as Balt will not win this series... I know its stupid money management but this is one of those games that you have a very good chance of winning and wagering all of your bankroll, that is if you are a risktaker like I am... Is it smart? No..Does it feel good if you win? YES...Does it feel shit if you lose? SUICIDE...

Use catution at your own risk

Myself 1* on Bos

 

[Snake Plissken]

Sounds good to me I'll give it a shot :shrug:

 

[Bandit HVG]

how about pedro & randy parlay?

 

[Red Raider]

Run the numbers:

Required Win % (Break even) = Amount Risked / (Amount Risked + Amount of Win)

So the break even point for a -300 line is

300/100+300 = 75%

So if you think Boston has a 75% chance of winning, or would win 75 out of 100 times in the match up, make the bet.

As an aside Randy Johnson's average line has been about -260 (no reaserch) meaning he would need to win about 72% of the time.

This thinking holds true for any line. In my opinion, not playing a game because the line is over a certain amount means your missing out on some very good opportunities. Every game, regardless of the line should be evaluated.

BTW - I like the bet. Pedro last pitched against the O's and allowed 1 hit in 7 innings and has an ERA of 3.38, while Douglass has an era of over 7 in 3 innings.

Its a lot of wood, and no bet is a sure thing, so bet smart.

I'll probably take the RL too.

 

[Big_Mack]

I'm just a HUGE Pedro fan I guess... I think the Unit has to loose some time and I'm not sure what his numbers are vs. the Mets but he can't own them the way Pedro has owned the O's.. 1 ER in 29 IP... Come on... That's unreal...

 

[Red Raider]

Yeh, it seems like the Big Unit has historically had trouble against the Mets, but maybe thats in the Playoffs. But after the embarassment they had tonight, maybe it'll be a decent bet.......

 

[ddubs]

FYI: Randy Johnson is scratched for tomorrow's game due to lower back strain.

 

[Red Raider]

Thnaks DDUBS. I hadn't heard that

 

[superbook]

I put a small play on Balt +280; I don't think Pedro is 100 percent yet.

And look at your own facts: Pedro is 3-0 vs the Orioles and if that 1 ND was a loss then he's beating them "only" 75% of the time, which is the required breakeven for a bet at -320. No value on the Bosox here.

 

[superbook]

Sorry double post

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

I see the line is coming down, you might want to wait till just before game time before you put your bet in if your on BOS

 

[nighthorse]

Pedro vs. the line

Pedro vs. the line

Here's an exerpt from Bob McCune's REVELATIONS IN SPORTS BETTING:

The majority of baseball bettors have established arbitrary limits for themselves as to how much they will 'lay' on a game. The majority will seldom, if ever, lay over a certain amount, say -1.50.....

Here's another aspect of betting on baseball that any bettor should take into account. The oddsmakers and the Books have a major problem in splitting the action. Let's take an example. Your handicapping discloses that Team (A) today, along with starting pitcher and bullpen, game site, and other values considered, purports to be able to beat Team (B) 3 out of 4 times they'd play this game under similar circumstances. What should the line be? Let's eliminate the juice for starters and compute the line I'd make such a line 3 to 1 in other words, I should have to lay $3.00 to win $1.00. I'd win 3 times and make a total of 3 dollars. I'd win the dog once every 4th try and also win $3.00. In the long run it would be a wash to play such a game, either way against a $3.00 line.

...But you will rarely see a $3.00 line, and seldom a line of even $2.50 Why? One reason is because such a disparity would not be acceptable by John Q Public. Everybody, more or less, would take a shot at the dog. Also, such a line would have to be at least a 30 or 40 cents difference between the favorite and the dog......

(books set the fav lower than it should be because people will bet the dog....if the dog wins, they pay out less.)


Anyway, sometimes a big favorite can be a bargain, while a low take-back on a dog can be a liability. Remember, you must win a given percentage of your baseball bets, whether you consider favorites or dogs. If you only win 35% of +1.50 dogs you'll lose money because 40% is break even. Conversely, you must win over 60% of -1.50 favorites to make a profit.

Given that the book IS laying the -300 with Pedro....where do you think the actual line should be?

 

[ddubs]

Personally, I think it's too much of a risk to play. If I had to, I would rather bet the under on the assumption that Pedro will dominate and that the Sox will not score more than 7, 8 runs, while risking 110 to win 100 instead of risking 300 to win 100.

I'd be very interested to see what Nolan has to say on this subject.

NOLAN!!!????:director:

 

[Nolan Dalla]

NIGHTHORSE: "Given that the book IS laying the -300 with Pedro....where do you think the actual line should be?"

I came really close to taking the Orioles in this game and only laid off because the O's were shut out yesterday and thus the hitting slump could/should carry over inot tis game. Had the O's put up any reasonable offensive effort last night, I'd play them at this price. Why?

Most analysts admit that pitching is 65 percent of the game. That's an arbitrary number, which may not be as relevant today as in years past because starters rarely go the full distance. In a Clemons start (average 6 IP) pitching would be only about 50 percent of the game for the Yankees. In the case of Martinez, he averages 8 IP -- one of the higher durations in baseball.

Assuming Martinez were facing another solid pitcher, his edge would be diminished (even O's Erickson could conceivably match up with Martinez). But let's say he is pitching against a neutral opponent tonight (2-2 record 4.10 ERA). Oversimplified, this means:

MARTINEZ (expected to allow ~2 runs)
O'S STARTER (expected to allow ~4 runs)
Add the factor of each bullpen pitching 1-3 innings and allowing an average of 1 run......(O's bullpen 1 run/Sox bullpen 1 run)
Based on pitching, matchups -- Boston is expected to win this game 5-3.

Now, factor in hitting disparities: Sox are a betting hitting team which is outscoring and putting more men on base than the O's. It's impossible to quantify run production into a variable that would indicate runs in today's game, but the O's offensive troubles are well-documented. I give the Sox an additional run advantage based on the strength of thier hitting lineup.

Final predicted score: 6-3 (4-2 in low scoring games....8-4 in a higher scoring game).

If we presume the number of runs translates into the likelihood of a win (a quantum leap which is not necessarily accurate), this means the Red Sox should be a MINIMUM of a -200 favorite. Add 30 points for home field and this gives us -230. Add any injuries or bullpen factors (tired bullpen etc.). Intangibles might include Martinez' dominance over Baltimore in recent starts, worth another 30 points (my estimate).

Conclusion: To wager Balitmore, you need to be getting back at least +260.

-- Nolan Dalla

PS -- Admittedly, these are all estimates and could be adjusted based on personal opinion.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Re: The total

I usually love situations like this -- where one dominant pitcher looks to shut out the opponents, thus requiring the home team to manufacture 7 or more runs to bust the total. Fenway has surpringly been producing a number of low scoring games this year (an abberation in my view -- this is still a hitter's park). For this reason, I rarely like to go UNDER in Boston unless the total us 9 or higher. I forgot the total on this game (I"m guessing 7.5 to 8). Trouble with going UNDER is the Baltimore starter has been fried in a coupel of starts and it's conceivable the Red Sox could tee off in this game. If Erickson were starting for O's I'd be on the UNDER in a heartbeat. But this is less stable with the shakey O's arm here. Also, there's that horrid memory of Martinez getting blasted in his first outing at Fenway this season when he looked awful (I think he gave up 4 runs in the first if I remember correctly). That certainly was unusual, but it does indicate he's not infallible. Conclusion: I might go UNDER if the total is 8 not laying more than -110. But anything less requires a Martinez masterpiece and a decent outing by the O's starter (which is more of a langshot).

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Big_Mack]

I would usually pass on a high number like this but Pedro has simply had the O's number .. It wouldn't suprise me if he pitched a no no today.. How many people bet Lowe last week at -180 vs. the D-Rays ??? Hell I bet the RL... I look at it this way, every once and a while it's safe to lay a Big number on a FAV.. I think Pedro would win vs. this team 8 or 9 times out of 10 not just 3 out of 4... I'm not telling anyone else to play the Bo Sox, I was just trying to get a feel of how many are going to play them.. Also, I'm not laying a great deal on the line.. Maybe a 9 UNIT to win 3 UNIT play... Either way it will make it more exciting that is until Boston goes up 4 or 5 runs (I hope.. ).. G/L to all of you (unless you've bet on Baltimore LOL..)

 

[nighthorse]

if it comes down to the Sox pen, they should be well rested coming off the no-hitter and Oliver's complete game last night.

 

[TheShrimp]

Re: Pedro vs. the line

Re: Pedro vs. the line

Originally posted by nighthorse

Given that the book IS laying the -300 with Pedro....where do you think the actual line should be?

Just to answer this, the acutal line should probably be -280 or so if you're only judging from the book's line. If you want to cap the game independently, as Nolan did, you'd come up with your own line.

Why do I say this? At -280, the book returns 35.70 on $100. At -300, the book returns 33.33. That is, your return on your win is discounted a little less than 10%, your typical juice.

By the way, SIA has O's at +310 (I got it) and the Sox at -370. Most everywhere else has the Sox at -320, O's at +280 or so.

As far as I'm concerned, +310 is too much if I were facing Pedro. I'd probably be on the O's anywhere from 300 on up and the Sox from about -250 on down, while laying off anything in between.

 

[Red Raider]

every once and a while it's safe to lay a Big number on a FAV

Its safe everytime they win.

Great discussions guys, thanks to everyone who's contributed.