Like several others, cutting down on the action is a big key for me, too. Sometimes it's like I think these are the last games I can ever bet on or something!? :shrug:
Even more than that, though, there are three specific CRAP thoughts/philosophies that I REALLY need to cut out. One is the lure of "building the bankroll." For some reason, I think there is a rule somewhere that says I HAVE to bet on at least one game that starts at noon (eastern) so I can "build my bankroll" for later in the day and then just keep doing that so I'll have a ton of funds for the following day's NFL action
:nono: Suffice it to say, I realize this is more along the lines of forcing bets and just doesn't work out very well very often. Hell, I am NOT anywhere close to an ACC or Big 10 expert, so why I do this is really beyond me. All I know is I need to stop doing it and probably won't enjoy any degree of consistent success until I do so.
The 2nd thing is to stop being scared of X number of points. There's always one or two coaches totally willing to run up the score, although with Spurrier gone to the NFL, I don't know who (by name) they're going to be this year. Great example of me being scared last year is Florida -35.5 vs. Vanderbilt at home. I liked that game, but started thinking "wow....that's A LOT of points!!!" If I wasn't such a dumb-ass, maybe I would've realized the line was like that because Florida usually wins pretty handily at home, especially against perennial cellar dwellers like Vandy. I even figured no mercy was going to be forthcoming.....and sure enough, none was. I believe the final was something like
70-7
So I need to do a much better job of matching up which teams are justified in being large favorites (and not being scared to take a shot with them if I like them....) and which ones seem to be bigger faves than I feel they should be, which of course means the dog in that case needs to be given a long look.
The 3rd thing is that last week was/is just that....last week. It's so easy to get caught up in how good or bad a certain team looked one week when the real question is....is that par for the course for their season or does it look more like a fluke-type performance. Got to keep in mind, too, that motivational factors, revenge, etc. are constantly changing a little bit each week, too. Not a huge deal for a 1-0 team to go to 1-1 as opposed to a 8-1 team trying to go to 9-1, for example, and stay in the National Championship hunt. Conversely, a 2-5 team playing terribly each week might now be playing a team -- at home -- who they lost to last year 63-0 on the road. As a result, maybe even at 2-5, they are treating that game like their own personal "championship" game?? At the very least, I think it's the mentality that leads to a lot of upsets....
One other small thing is I need to realize the SEC, for one, is a tough conference in which to win on the road. I don't have any numbers on it, but seems like just about ALL SEC home dogs deserve a very long look......
Love this discussion and hearing what others think their weak areas are. Good luck all.
Night Owl
