NOLAN:
I consider you to be one of the best football cappers I have ever seen. I don't want to bring up bad memories but last year was a rough season for you, in fact I believe you said it was your worse in 10 years. I had a horrendous season also. Your analysis is always well thought out and intelligent. Thus, I am interested to hear your thoughts on this topic. Have you made any adjustments to how you will pick your plays? Do you see last season as an abberration? Are you making any changes to your style and selection process? Also on a personal note, I hope to hear your radio broadcasts again on fancast. It was always an interesting and thought provoking show. Thanks for all your hard work.
Shats
REPLY: Wow, Shats. That's really a very tough question for me to answer. I could probably write several columns about the ideas I have and the necessary adjustments that might need to be made for next football season. I hope to get into some of these topics once we get closer to football season. I do very much appreciate your confidence and nice comments. One of the things I pride myself in is being able to thoroughly break down an NFL game and not get emotionally swayed by public opinion. Accordingly, one of the most painful elements of being a public handicapper (where people expect the selections to be somewhat successful) is when you see many people following the pick(s) and then losing money. I've written before that it just drives me insane to think about that.
So, I've tried to use the losing NFL season in 2001 as motivation. Motivation to improve my handicapping. Motivation to make some necessary adjustments. Motivation to look at more trends (but not follow them blindly). Motivation to keep better records.
One thing I did right (and maybe someone can learn form this) -- I don't think I was ever "lazy." We all may be guilty of this at times, but I can honestly say that I never once threw up a pick and hoped it would stick to the wall. Every play was released with a good reason. While I admittedly can't do the same in NBA or MLB (too many games and not enough time to contemplate action and reflect between wagers), the NFL is a dream for a handicapper liek me who thinks a game through, then re-thingks it over and over again in his head. It might sound funny, but when I'm taking a shower on a Tuesday afternoon during football season, I'm probably the only guy in America thinking about the Cleveland Browns defensive line (no jokes please).
One flaw I repeated several times last season (now looking back, it's easy to see patterns of error) was that I failed to give the weaker upcoming teams enough credit, and gave far too much credit to the perrenial powerhouses, expecting they would show some pride and rebound after tough losses. But last year was the ULTIMATE example in NFL parity. There wasn't a helluva' lot of difference in talent and performance between the Patriots and the Bengals (I know I'll get in trouble for saying that, but I believe once a team gets on a roll, it's hard to stop them). The Patriots upset a couple of teams and I'd jump on the other side the next week looking for the letdown. Wham! It didn't come. Or -- I'd jump on the Raiders or Colts after a tough defeat expecting a kick ass romp in the next game. Then, they'd lose outright. If you bet Tennessee or Baltimore more than a couple of times last seaosn, you probably LOST money. Then, there were teams like the Bears and Patriots that come out of nowhere. It took me twn weeks before I gave them any credit (so I was behind the curve -- not a good place to be for a handicapper). Obviously, my sides did not perform anywhere near expectation. Once again -- parity is a large reason. Another big is (don't discount this, I firmly believe it) the September 11th disaster which interrupted everyone's emotional state for several weeks thereafter. It was the jolt of an earthquake to all of us, even NFL players, who no longer seemed to think studying the NFL playbook was the most important thing in life. Again, this serves as an equalizer and makes a team like the Patriots (an average football team, in my view) a Super Bowl winner. I'm not sure I explained myself on this point, but if we were to hypothetically drop a nuclear bomb on England tomorrow, I suspect that the English Premier (soccer) League's standings next season would be shaken to the core. Just a theory on human reaction ot traumatic events.
On totals, I firmly believe the NFL oddsmakers finally caught on to the fact that their middle-grade games were simply too high each Sunday. Games that used to be totalled at or near 39 and 40 were sudddenly 37 or 37.5 each and every week. I saw it starting the first week of the season (NOTE: I even think we may have had something to do with the NFL totals being adjusted with our influx of money the previous season on totals, but that may be conceited on my part).
The UNDERS (my strong point) did not cash in as much during 2001 as in previous years. I used to hit lots of games where the books would push the number up to the high 30s or low 40s -- but last year, there JUST WERE NOT AS MANY BARGAINS. It ws like going to the store where everything is on sale and seeing empty shelves. When there were fewer bargains, I found myself trying to CREATE BARGAINS by betting the same style when the oddsmakers had made what was for me, a crippling adjustment. So, not having enough displine to lay off those marginal games was certainly a flaw that I will not repeat.
Another flaw in my handicapping had to do with the application of NFL teasers using key numbers. I'm convinced that over a 10 year period, this is a money-maker (Stanford Wong actually ran the stats on this, just so I can give credit where it's due). Unfortunatley, I tended to push teasers more than was necessary and ended up losing with them overall. I still insist that using key numbers and teaser wheels can be very profitable, but they must be used selectively. One critic in an e-mail to me pointed out I was using teasers too often, perhaps to gain an edge on a game where I didn't quite feel right about betting the side, and ended up taking more losses that wins. So, I do learn things from my critics (sometimes).
As to what adjustments to make next season, I believe I have several good ideas. I have already collected a number of trends and tracked them myself so that will provide some plays that I may not have noticed in previous years. I also will focus more on totals and going OVER on more plays than is my custom, assuming the oddsmakers continue to install low totals on many games. There are other things too, but I don't have the space to elaborate at this point.
Finally, I think one big problem we all had was our inability to predict what second-string quarterbacks will do in a game. Since the NFL had more than half backups playing by the end of the 2001 regular season, our job as handicappers becomes incredibly more difficult trying to predict if the 2nd year QB from XYZ State will throw three TDs or three interceptions. Did anyone see Tom Brady or Kordell Stewart becoming the AFC's top passers? It's just a crapshoot. sometimes.
Finally, and this is my main pet peeve and causes me more frustration than ANY OTHER POINT -- the NFL officials are turning NFL games into NBA basketball, as flags and whistles are determining the outcomes of games. The pass interference rule alone is DESTROYING the ability to accurately predict the outcome of games. Incompetence in officiating cost me over $2K last season (that's a conservative estimate) and will continue to plague us as bettors. If the officiating does not improve and rule changes are not instituted, we all might as well burn our logbooks and flush our software packages down the toilet and go out and get real jobs. There's not a thing we can do to predict whether or not some brain dead official is going to throw a flag or not. That's why I supported the riot in Cleveland. They didn't go far enough, in my opinion. I wanted to see a bloodbath. Then, maybe then, the NFL might pull its head out of its ass.
Hope this answers the question, at least partially.
Nolan Dalla
