WM Phoenix Open
- Thread starter sharky17
- Start date
In-running:
Kyle Stanley(20/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Charles Howell(66/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
ODDS and ENDS:
(1) They've only shown me Howell through his scorecards this week, but I'd say he's back playing the way he was in Hawaii, which makes him dangerous, or as dangerous as Chuckie can be. Back button for me.
(2) Hands down the best shot I've seen this week was Stanley landing his tee shot in the middle of the par 4 17th green and stopping it right there on his way to two closing birdies in the gloaming on Friday . . . Stanley is the best price on the board for the weekend. I'm in for it . . . I'd add a plunge for The Masters, too, if a price was available.
(3) It's not news, just stating the obvious, but Mickelson tries to nuke or nearly nuke too many shots, his irons almost as much as his driver. It sure seems that with his incredible talent, he should put far more variety, imagination and feel into his long shots (trajectory and distance control), and that would probably have some carryover to his imagination and feel in his short game, too, like when he finished second at Royal St. George's. I'm sure he hears about the same thing from Butch Harmon and Bones, but that man is stubborn.
(4) Friday the commentators were discussing Fowler laying up on #15 at Phoenix in 2010, and Brandel Chamblee had the best observation about Rickie's decision (with relevance to the Tour(s) in general, if your name isn't Woods): "No matter how talented you are, as he his, opportunities to win don't come around that often, and I think he's learned that, and next time he'll seize it by the throat."
(5) Item (4) ties in nicely with this interview with Spencer Levin:
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=77174
Q. Did you learn anything from your close call last year?
A. But I don't really know if I've learned anything necessarily, just you're going to have to‑‑ I've learned, though, that you can't get stagnant on it. The guys are always going to be playing well. Somebody is going to be shooting low every day, so if you're playing well, chances are someone else is, too. I've learned that each level as a pro, mini‑Tour, Canadian, Nationwide to here, just the level gets a little higher, and the value of one shot is always a little bit higher. I'm starting to learn that, and just trying to keep making birdies. I know everybody says that, but you really have to do that out here. I've noticed that.
Q. What was it like walking up 18 with a big red 14 on the card?
A. Yeah, that was pretty cool. One other time at Bay Hill last year I played good in the afternoon on Thursday and then I think I was first off on Friday, and I think I already had a couple‑shot lead, then I was like 3‑under early and I had a six‑shot lead and looked at the board, and it kind of freaked me out a little bit . . . But I tried not to look at it. I had a feeling. I glanced at it when I was on 13, and I saw where I was‑‑ I'm sorry, what hole is that? Par‑3, the water on the right, 12. Hit a good shot in there, made birdie and looked up and saw I think at that time I had a three‑shot lead or something. So I kind of knew where I was, and then I just tried not to think about it and finished good, which was nice.
Q. Was there any change in your swing thought or anything like that that triggered it?
A. Well, it was funny because my dad was saying I was swinging great on the range, and I'm looking, like really, because I e couldn't hit a shot I wanted to, and he's telling mdon't worry about it, you're going to hit it good, just keep trusting your swing. He's right so far. I just trusted what he was saying and kind of got a little bit comfortable in that first round and started hitting some good shots, then my confidence started getting a little bit higher. I felt really good today. I felt really good off the tee. I felt really good with my irons. So it's just amazing how quick your mind can change in this game.
(6) Story from Brandel Chamblee during the Friday coverage: "Kenny Perry came back to Phoenix as defending champion after winning in 2009, and he went to get a haircut. The woman stylist asked why he was in town, and he said, "The Phoenix Open." And she said, "Oh, I love the Phoenix Open! I go every night."
GL
Kyle Stanley(20/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Charles Howell(66/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
ODDS and ENDS:
(1) They've only shown me Howell through his scorecards this week, but I'd say he's back playing the way he was in Hawaii, which makes him dangerous, or as dangerous as Chuckie can be. Back button for me.
(2) Hands down the best shot I've seen this week was Stanley landing his tee shot in the middle of the par 4 17th green and stopping it right there on his way to two closing birdies in the gloaming on Friday . . . Stanley is the best price on the board for the weekend. I'm in for it . . . I'd add a plunge for The Masters, too, if a price was available.
(3) It's not news, just stating the obvious, but Mickelson tries to nuke or nearly nuke too many shots, his irons almost as much as his driver. It sure seems that with his incredible talent, he should put far more variety, imagination and feel into his long shots (trajectory and distance control), and that would probably have some carryover to his imagination and feel in his short game, too, like when he finished second at Royal St. George's. I'm sure he hears about the same thing from Butch Harmon and Bones, but that man is stubborn.
(4) Friday the commentators were discussing Fowler laying up on #15 at Phoenix in 2010, and Brandel Chamblee had the best observation about Rickie's decision (with relevance to the Tour(s) in general, if your name isn't Woods): "No matter how talented you are, as he his, opportunities to win don't come around that often, and I think he's learned that, and next time he'll seize it by the throat."
(5) Item (4) ties in nicely with this interview with Spencer Levin:
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=77174
Q. Did you learn anything from your close call last year?
A. But I don't really know if I've learned anything necessarily, just you're going to have to‑‑ I've learned, though, that you can't get stagnant on it. The guys are always going to be playing well. Somebody is going to be shooting low every day, so if you're playing well, chances are someone else is, too. I've learned that each level as a pro, mini‑Tour, Canadian, Nationwide to here, just the level gets a little higher, and the value of one shot is always a little bit higher. I'm starting to learn that, and just trying to keep making birdies. I know everybody says that, but you really have to do that out here. I've noticed that.
Q. What was it like walking up 18 with a big red 14 on the card?
A. Yeah, that was pretty cool. One other time at Bay Hill last year I played good in the afternoon on Thursday and then I think I was first off on Friday, and I think I already had a couple‑shot lead, then I was like 3‑under early and I had a six‑shot lead and looked at the board, and it kind of freaked me out a little bit . . . But I tried not to look at it. I had a feeling. I glanced at it when I was on 13, and I saw where I was‑‑ I'm sorry, what hole is that? Par‑3, the water on the right, 12. Hit a good shot in there, made birdie and looked up and saw I think at that time I had a three‑shot lead or something. So I kind of knew where I was, and then I just tried not to think about it and finished good, which was nice.
Q. Was there any change in your swing thought or anything like that that triggered it?
A. Well, it was funny because my dad was saying I was swinging great on the range, and I'm looking, like really, because I e couldn't hit a shot I wanted to, and he's telling mdon't worry about it, you're going to hit it good, just keep trusting your swing. He's right so far. I just trusted what he was saying and kind of got a little bit comfortable in that first round and started hitting some good shots, then my confidence started getting a little bit higher. I felt really good today. I felt really good off the tee. I felt really good with my irons. So it's just amazing how quick your mind can change in this game.
(6) Story from Brandel Chamblee during the Friday coverage: "Kenny Perry came back to Phoenix as defending champion after winning in 2009, and he went to get a haircut. The woman stylist asked why he was in town, and he said, "The Phoenix Open." And she said, "Oh, I love the Phoenix Open! I go every night."
GL
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Round 3 play (2pts):
Bo Van Pelt to beat Johson Wagner -105 @ 5Dimes
Wagner is the favourite in this matchup presumably as his three finishes this year have been 9th, 1st and 2nd, but he has never fared well on this course. In his four previous visits, he has missed the cut three times and finished 60th on the other occasion. He currently lies in 12th place, but he ranks outside the top-60 in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling. In terms of the putting categories he ranks around 40th, so it is quite some feat to be playing so indifferently and scoring well enough to be 12th. He is clearly struggling around this course again and can be opposed with a player who has shown much better form this week.
Bo Van Pelt to beat Johson Wagner -105 @ 5Dimes
Wagner is the favourite in this matchup presumably as his three finishes this year have been 9th, 1st and 2nd, but he has never fared well on this course. In his four previous visits, he has missed the cut three times and finished 60th on the other occasion. He currently lies in 12th place, but he ranks outside the top-60 in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and scrambling. In terms of the putting categories he ranks around 40th, so it is quite some feat to be playing so indifferently and scoring well enough to be 12th. He is clearly struggling around this course again and can be opposed with a player who has shown much better form this week.
Round 4
Mickelson -120 over Stanley
Mickelson on the upswing while I think Stanley's mental standing isn't all that great. Watching today he had all sorts of trouble controlling the spin on his iron shots. With Sunday pin placements, I expect that to continue. With that said if Phil gets too aggressive this play can blow up but I like the fact he flew in Butch for a quick lesson on Saturday morning.
Mickelson -120 over Stanley
Mickelson on the upswing while I think Stanley's mental standing isn't all that great. Watching today he had all sorts of trouble controlling the spin on his iron shots. With Sunday pin placements, I expect that to continue. With that said if Phil gets too aggressive this play can blow up but I like the fact he flew in Butch for a quick lesson on Saturday morning.
Round 4 play (4pts):
Webb Simpson to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Boyle Sports and Carib]
Good odds for Simpson to fare better than Watson today, particularly when you consider that Five Dimes price Simpson -160 and Carib -170. Both players have looked good this week and could still put runaway leader, Spencer Levin, under a lot of pressure as they are both in the final group with the leader. However, their histories when in such a position are very different. Whereas Simpson has shot 70 or better in each of the six occasions that he has started the final round in the top-3 over the past 12 months, Watson's five previous occurences over the same period have resulted in final round scores of 78, 69, 78, 74 and 77. Only one of these two players is proven under final round pressure.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Leishman tb Jones -130; Frazar tb Noh -120; Dufner tb Chalmers -135; Dufner tb Stroud -150]
Webb Simpson to beat Bubba Watson -125 @ Stan James [also available @ 5Dimes, Boyle Sports and Carib]
Good odds for Simpson to fare better than Watson today, particularly when you consider that Five Dimes price Simpson -160 and Carib -170. Both players have looked good this week and could still put runaway leader, Spencer Levin, under a lot of pressure as they are both in the final group with the leader. However, their histories when in such a position are very different. Whereas Simpson has shot 70 or better in each of the six occasions that he has started the final round in the top-3 over the past 12 months, Watson's five previous occurences over the same period have resulted in final round scores of 78, 69, 78, 74 and 77. Only one of these two players is proven under final round pressure.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Leishman tb Jones -130; Frazar tb Noh -120; Dufner tb Chalmers -135; Dufner tb Stroud -150]
