WNBA BEST BETS AND MORE !

Cnotes53

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TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
CON at NY08:00 PMCON +9.0
U 159.0
+500 +500
DAL at LV10:00 PMLV -10.5
O 175.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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WNBA PLAYOFF BEST BETS !

09/26/2023.......................1 - 2 - 1.....................33.33%.................- 6.00
09/24/2023.......................1 - 1..........................50.00%.................- 0.50
09/20/2023.......................2 - 0........................100.00%.................+10.00
09/19/2023.......................3 - 1.........................75.00%..................+ 9.50
09/17/2023.......................2 - 2.........................50.00%..................- 1.00
09/15/2023.......................2 - 2..........................50.00%..................- 1.00
09/13/2023.......................2 - 2 ........................50.00%...................- 1.00

TOTALS.............................10 - 9 - 1..................52.63%....................+ 10.00
 

Udog

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Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s 6-pack:

Mariners 6, Astros 2— Seattle trails Houston by half-game for last AL Wild Card slot.
Phillies 3, Pirates 2— Phillies clinch a playoff spot.
Orioles 1, Nationals 0— Kyle Bradish tossed 8 shutout IP.
Braves 7, Cubs 6— Atlanta scored twice on dropped fly ball in 8th inning.
— When the Cubs lost, Milwaukee clinched the NL Central.
Arizona 15, Chicago 4— Christian Walker homered twice, had 6 RBI.

Quote of the Day
“I’ve been around this long enough to know that people are impatient. I’m impatient. The honeymoon is going to last a certain amount of time, and then it’s going to be on us and on me.”
Washington Commanders’ owner Josh Harris

Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, what well-known actress played James Caan’s mother?

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; they beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in that game- the Colts were in the NFL back then, the Jets in the AFL, before the leagues merged.

Monday’s quiz
Sean Payton was a replacement player for the Chicago Bears during the 1987 NFL players’ strike.

********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— NC State is going to unveil a statue of basketball great David Thompson outside its arena on December 6; he led the Wolfpack to the 1974 national title, was a three-time All American, and wound up playing in the ABA/NBA for nine seasons.

Put it this way; when Michael Jordan was a kid, Thompson was his favorite player, and he was a lot like Jordan, but dunking was illegal back in those days, and ESPN didn’t exist yet, so a lot of his accomplishments fell thru the cracks a little, but he was a great, great college player.

— Ohio State was a 3-point favorite at Notre Dame last week; Buckeyes trailed 14-10, but scored on a 1-yard TD with 0:01 left to win the game- they led 16-14, with 0:01 left.

At that point, only two ways they can lose the game:
1) Notre Dame runs the ensuing kickoff back for a TD

2) Notre Dame blocks the PAT, runs it back for 2 points and a tie, which forces OT.

It is coaching malpractice to even try the PAT; you a take a knee and go home 16-14 winners, which would be a bad beat for anyone who bet on Ohio State.

But Ohio State kicked the PAT and won 17-14, bailing out Buckeye backers.

— In his great career, Rams’ DT Aaron Donald has sacked 51 different quarterbacks.

— Cleveland Browns might be an underrated team; so far this season, the Browns have 64 first downs, their opponents 21. Only game Cleveland lost, their offense gave up two TD’s to the Steelers’ defense in a 26-22 loss- they allowed 3 points in both of their wins.

— Kelce brothers are all over TV now; their mother is even in a couple commercials.

— Dallas Cowboys on their first drive of the third quarter:
35 plays, 197 yards, a TD and two FG’s.

Cowboys’ opponents on their first drive of the third quarter:
13 plays, minus-1 yard, 3 punts.

Dallas coaches are doing a good job at halftime.

— Chicago Bears on their first drive of the third quarter:
12 plays, 7 yards, 3 punts.

Bears’ opponents on their first drive of the third quarter:
31 plays, 228 yards, 3 touchdowns

Bears coaches need to make better adjustments at halftime.

— Term of the Day: hedge fund- A hedge fund is a limited partnership of private investors whose money is managed by professional fund managers who use a wide range of strategies, including leveraging or trading of non-traditional assets, to earn above-average investment returns.

— Whatever happened to Jon Gruden? Few years ago he was everywhere on TV, then he went to coach the Raiders and that didn’t go well. You’d think he would’ve wound up back on TV, but he hasn’t. He did some consulting work with the Saints/Derek Carr this summer, but you’d think a coach who has won a Super Bowl would be able to get another coaching job, or a TV job.

I guess suing the NFL/Roger Goodell over the leaking of e-mails Gruden sent a long time ago wasn’t a great idea.

— Pittsburgh Pirates started the season 20-8; they’re 33-29 in their last 62 games. Not bad.

Problem is, in between there, the Pirates went 21-46. Do they have enough talent to become a contender next year?

— Cincinnati Reds led Pittsburgh 9-0 Saturday, wound up losing 13-12, a horrific loss for a team trying to make an unlikely playoff run. Reds should’ve added pitching at the trade deadline, maybe they’d be happier this week.

— Jets finally signed a third QB, Trevor Siemian; he’s started 30 NFL games in his career, going 13-17 in those games. His last win came back in 2017, playing for the Broncos. He was also on the Jets on 2019, starting one game, against Cleveland.

Chad Henne turned down a chance to be a backup for the Jets; he’s started 54 games in his NFL career, but only one since 2014. Henne was Patrick Mahomes’ backup in Kansas City the last three years, which got him a Super Bowl ring and a Subway commercial.

— Chargers’ WR Mike Williams tore his ACL, is out for the year.

— Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 45-28 last week; their DB Maxwell Hairston scored two TD’s on pick-6’s, a pretty good day for him.

— Was disappointed that HBO pulled the plug on their show Winning Time, which was about the Magic Johnson-era Lakers. They did it at a weird time in the show, right after the Lakers lost a Finals series to the Celtics, you’d think they’d at least end it on a bright note.

— San Diego Padres are amazingly 0-12 in extra innings this season, 7-22 in one-run games; they’re expected to cut $50M off their payroll next year, meaning Hader/Snell are both going to bolt to other teams, plus Juan Soto is likely to be traded.

— RIP to the great third baseman Brooks Robinson, who passed away at age 86. He played with the Orioles for 23 years, helping them win four AL titles and two World Series. A tremendous fielder, he also hit 268 home runs. RIP sir.
 

Cnotes53

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
best matchups for ACC-SEC basketball challenge in late November:
— Tennessee-North Carolina
— LSU-Syracuse
— Florida-Wake Forest
— Miami-Kentucky
— Duke-Arkansas
— Clemson-Alabama

Quote of the Day
“That’s why I’m going to shut it down. … I’m going to go get my body patched up again for about the 80th time and I’m going to try to go get healthy and I’m in no rush.”
Terry Francona

Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, what number did he wear?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; they beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in that game- the Colts were in the NFL back then, the Jets in the AFL, before the leagues merged.

********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Wednesday was the Cleveland Guardians’ last home game this season, the last home game for manager Terry Francona, who is retiring after this season.
Francona has had a great career as a manager; he seems to be universally loved by people who cross paths with him, especially the Cleveland TV guys. I’d like for him to get job at FOX or ESPN, so we can learn from him over the next few seasons.
Francona’s managerial career:
1997-2000— Phillies 285-363, not so good
2004-11— Red Sox— 744-552, won two World Series
2013-23— Indians/Guardians— 919-755, won AL pennant in 2016
This is a Hall of Fame career; hopefully, he’ll get voted in.
Oh yeah, he also managed the Birmingham Barons the year Michael Jordan played for the Barons. That had to be quite an experience.

— It is early in the season, but here is so info on how NFL teams are doing on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line— both offense and defense.
Lot of times, teams score on short drives or on defensive TD’s, but can an offense drive 75+ yards for a TD? That way, a team can still score points, even if they don’t get lot of turnovers.

— Offenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 4.23
Chargers 3.12
Cowboys 2.93
Mariners 2.60
Vikings 2.54

— Defenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Browns 0.04
Steelers 0.54— Defensive TD’s count towards these numbers.
Bills 0.68
Cowboys 0.69
Patriots 0.81

— Offenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.22
Giants 0.67— They gave up a defensive TD and a TD on a blocked FG.
Commanders 0.73
Browns 0.77— Gave up two defensive TD’s to the Steelers
Jaguars 0.89

— Defenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Broncos 3.61— They’ve given up 105 points in last two games.
Chargers 3.13
Raiders 3.00
Bears 3.00
Seahawks 2.83

— Chargers won 28-24 in Minnesota Sunday, despite losing field position by 16 yards; you almost never see a team win a game with such a disadvantage in field position.

— Word of the Day: Impasse— a situation in which no progress is possible, especially because of disagreement.

— Was reminded Monday night that when the Rams lose, I need to stay away from social media, because there are a lot of front-running, disloyal jerks out there.
Rams lose to the Bengals 19-16 Monday night, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of geniuses on Twitter ripping Sean McVay for various things, because hey, they know more about football than he does.
Oy.

— There was a big trade in the NBA Wednesday:
Milwaukee got Damian Lillard— he is 33 and has $200M left on his contract.
Portland got Jrue Holiday and DeAndre Ayton- they figure to trade free agent-to-be Holiday.
Phoenix got Jusuf Nurkic
Does this trade make the Bucks the preseason favorite for this year?

— Miami Marlins are contending for a playoff spot, the Mets have had a dismal season and right now, the Marlins are steamed because their game in New York Tuesday was rained out, because the Mets’ ground crew didn’t put the tarp on the field at Citi Field Saturday and it rained a lot, so the field was supposedly still unplayable Tuesday.
Miami wanted to use P Braxton Garrett Tuesday and then again Sunday, the last day of the season, but now they won’t be able to, unless he goes on three days’ rest Sunday. Not ideal.
The Mets say they just made a mistake, nothing intentional about it.

— Bill Dickey was a Hall of Fame catcher a long, long time ago; he lived in Little Rock, AR, where for a while, his paperboy was a young man named Brooks Robinson.

— The father of Diamondbacks’ OF Alek Thomas was the strength coach for the White Sox for like 20 years, so had to be weird this week for Thomas to be playing against the Pale Hose, like coming home again.

— Michigan State officially fired football coach Mel Tucker, which should keep lawyers for both sides busy for a while. Tucker was making $9.5M a year; they fired him for cause, ‘cuz they do not want to give him any more money.

— Glad to hear that the writers’ strike in Hollywood is over; now TV shows/movies can resume production.
 

Cnotes53

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Friday’s 6-pack:
Thru three weeks, NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,075— Kirk Cousins, Minn
1,024— Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
939— Justin Herbert, LAC
910— Matthew Stafford, Rams
906— CJ Stroud, Hst
819— Jared Goff, Det

Quote of the Day
“I love mankind…….Its people I can’t stand.”
Linus, from the Peanuts comic strip

Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs, who was their manager?

Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.

*********************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday

— Miami Marlins scored two runs in top of ninth Thursday, led Mets 2-1 when rain delayed the game; after a delay of 3:17, they suspended the game around 1:00 am, which complicates things.
Marlins lead the Cubs by half a game for last Wild Card slot; if Thursday’s game needs to be finished to impact the playoff race, Marlins will return to New York to finish the game Monday.
If the game doesn’t impact the playoff race, the score reverts back to the 8th inning, the game won’t be completed, and the Mets will win the game, 1-0.

Lions 34, Packers 20
Detroit in first half: 42 plays, 259 yards, 27 points.
Green Bay in first half: 23 plays, 54 yards, 3 points.
Detroit is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under Campbell, Lions are 26-11-1 ATS.
Last two games, Green Bay was outscored 44-3 in first half.
Total yardage: Detroit 401, Green Bay 230
Lions are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games vs Green Bay.
Detroit has beaten the Packers four times in row for first time since 1983.

— In their first three games, Cleveland Browns have allowed only one TD on 33 drives, and that TD was a 71-yard TD pass by Pittsburgh.

— Jacksonville State 35, Sam Houston State 28 OT
Jax State tied game on a 28-yard TD pass/2-point conversion with 0:13 left.
Sam Houston led game 21-7 at halftime.
JSU RB Jackson carried ball 13 times for 129 yards and a TD.

— Tulsa 48, Temple 26
Tulsa ran for 289 yards, converted 9-15 on third down.
Temple QB EJ Warner was 27-49/269, with two TD passes.

— Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 10
Hilltoppers led 23-3 at halftime.
WKU converted 10-19 third down plays.

— Only two baseball players EVER have hit:
.300+ career batting average
500+ home runs
3,167+ hits
1,800+ RBI
600+ doubles
Henry Aaron and……..Miguel Cabrera

— Word of the Day: Serendipity— A chain of events that occurs in a favorable way.

— Ronald Acuna stole his 70th base Wednesday, making him the first player ever with 40+ home runs, 70+ stolen bases in the same season.

— Happened to be watching the Pirates-Phillies game last night when Angel Hernandez called Bryce Harper out on a check swing, a truly horrible call— it wasn’t close, and I didn’t care who won the game, it was just an awful call.
Harper went on tilt, walked down to 3B while he yelled at Hernandez. At first I thought he was getting tossed on purpose, since the Phillies are already in the playoffs, but you could tell he was genuinely ticked off. Replays showed what a bad call it was.

— Baltimore 2, Boston 0— Orioles win their 100th game, clinch the AL East title.
Orioles signed a new 30-year lease at Camden Yards, good for the fans in Baltimore.

— Braves 5, Cubs 3
Atlanta clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Cubs fell a half-game behind Marlins in the Wild Card race.

— Mariners 3, Rangers 2— JP Crawford’s 2-run double in bottom of the ninth moved Seattle within a game of the Astros for the last playoff spot in the AL.

— USFL/XFL are going to merge, a smart move that will make spring football prominent for years to come. Details haven’t been announced yet, but this is a good move.

— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
 

Udog

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WNBA
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Friday, September 29


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WNBA

Friday, September 29


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York @ Connecticut
New York
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New York is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
Connecticut
Connecticut is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Connecticut is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York

Las Vegas @ Dallas
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Las Vegas is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

Cnotes53

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Best NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
6.20— Ravens (62 points/10 drives)
6.00— Chiefs
5.93— Dolphins
5.89— Packers
5.75— Chargers
5.60— Bears (only five drives)

Quote of the Day
“Hope it’s up to your standards. I didn’t know I was a poor man’s anything.”
Jared Goff Thursday night, after Ryan Fitzpatrick called him “…..a poor man’s Matt Ryan”

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.

Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.

***********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……

— Marlins 4, Pirates 3
Miami trailed 3-0 in 8th inning, scored four runs in top of the 8th.

— Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10)
Cubs tied game after trailing 3-0 in 8th inning.
Carlos Santana got the game-winning hit.
Cubs/Reds are tied, 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the last playoff spot.

— Astros 2, Arizona 1
Jose Urquidy got a spot start, threw six scoreless IP.
Jose Abreu’s two-run double was the game-winning hit.

— Mariners 8, Rangers 0— Seattle stays within a game of Houston in the Wild Card race; Texas leads the Astros by a game in AL West.

— Royals 12, New York 5— Carlos Rodon faced eight batters, threw 35 pitches, gave up six hits, walked two guys— all eight hitters scored. It was the worst start by any MLB pitcher since 2019, when Stephen Matz faced eight guys, and they all got on base.
Rodon is in the first year of a six-year, $162M contract. Yikes.

— San Francisco Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler Friday, two years after his Giants went 107-55; the other three years he managed the Giants:
2020— 29-31
2021— 107-55
2022— 81-81
2023— 78-81

— Texas Rangers have 30 saves this year; they’ve blown 33 saves. No bueno.

— Louisville 13, NC State 10
Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime.
Cardinals outgained NC State 306-201; Wolfpack had only 9 first downs.
Louisville kicked a 53-yard FG with 5:32 left for the winning score.

— Oregon State 21, Utah 7
Beavers outgained Utah, 358-198
Utah’s starting QB still hasn’t played this season.
Both teams are 4-1 now.

— Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 10
Tech led 17-7 at halftime.
Neither team completed half their passes
Tech was 3-11 on third down, UTEP 3-18.

— BYU 35, Cincinnati 27
First score of game was a pick-6 for BYU.
BYU QB Slovis threw TD passes of 22-59 yards.
Bearcats outgained BYU, 498-295

— Word of the Day: Quagmire- an awkward, complex, or hazardous situation.

— Los Angeles Chargers have their bye next week, in Week 5; the last nine years, Chargers are 1-8 ATS in the game before their bye.

— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is 5-23 SU/9-18-1 ATS as an NFL quarterback; Bears host Denver this week, a team that lost 70-20 last week, but Denver is favored by 3.5 points.

— Green Bay’s Jordan Love is 2-3 in his first five NFL starts.
Aaron Rodgers was 2-3 in his first five NFL starts; so was Brett Favre.

— 21 of the 32 head coaches in the NFL are in their first NFL head coaching job; guys who get fired in the NFL are more likely to go off to college jobs (Matt Rhule, Jim Mora Jr, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban come to mind).
How come no one has given Dan Quinn another shot at being a head coach? Few years ago, the guy was winning a Super Bowl 28-3. You’d think he would get hired by someone.

— Only one 0-4 NFL team made the playoffs that year: the 1992 San Diego Chargers.

— Thru Thursday’s games, 1,137 baseball games went over the total this season, 1,136 games stayed under the total.

— Minnesota Twins have struck out 1,629 times this season, the most by any team, ever.

— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.

— Best college football teams against the spread:
4-0 ATS: Liberty, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, UNLV
3-0-1 ATS: Rutgers, Syracuse

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
 

Cnotes53

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
3.82— Texans (42 points/11 drives)
4.00— Jets, Titans
4.10— Vikings, Commanders
4.25— Raiders, Buccaneers
4.27— Cowboys
4.45— Broncos

Quote of the Day
“We’re not the hunted, because we’re going to stay on the hunt. If you’re hunting us, you won’t have to look far. We’re gonna be on your front porch.”
Lions’ coach Dan Campbell

Sunday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker?
Hint: he manages another MLB team now

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.

Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.

****************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

— Baylor 36, UCF 35
UCF led 35-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Down 35-26, Baylor scored on 72-yard fumble return with 6:02 left.
Baylor kicked game-winning field goal with 1:21 left.

— Ole Miss 55, LSU 49
These teams need to recruit A LOT OF defensive players this winter.
Total yardage in game: Ole Miss 706, LSU 637
Rebels had 11 penalties for 120 yards, still scored 55 points.
Ole Miss scored two TD’s in last 5:09 to get the win.

— Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Auburn led 17-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Georgia threw 40-yard TD pass for game-winning score with 2:52 left.
Dawgs’ TE Bowers caught 8 passes for 157 yards and that TD.

— USC 48, Colorado 41
USC led this game 34-7 at one point.
Colorado was 9-18 on third down, Trojans 3-9
USC QB Williams was 30-40/403 yards, with six TD passes.
Colorado QB Sanders was 30-45/371 yards, with four TD passes.

— Notre Dame 21, Duke 14
Notre Dame drove 95 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:31 left.

— Marshall 41, Old Dominion 35
ODU led 21-3 with 10:00 left in second quarter.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
ODU lost despite running ball for 339 yards (10.9 yards/attempt).

— Appalachian State 41, Louisiana-Monroe 40
App State kicked a 54-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
App State was 7-13 on third down, ULM was 3-11.

— Word of the Day— Loyalty— Giving or showing firm and constant support or allegiance to a person, group of people or institution.

— Upsets of the Day:
Bowling Green (+21) 38, Georgia Tech 27
West Virginia (+13) 24, TCU 21
Baylor (+8) 36, Central Florida 35
Buffalo (+3) 13, Akron 10, OT
South Florida (+3) 44, Navy 30

— 12 teams for the baseball playoffs are set; AL West hasn’t been decided yet, with Rangers trying to clinch with a win Sunday.

— Marlins 7, Pirates 3
Miami clinches its first full-season playoff berth since 2003.
Because of this, Mets win Thursday’s game vs Miami, 1-0 in 8 innings- the score reverts to the 8th inning— the ninth inning won’t be finished Monday.

— Rangers 6, Mariners 1
Rangers are in playoffs, need one more win to clinch AL West.
Mariners have been eliminated.

— Astros 1, Diamondbacks 0
Astros are in playoffs, can still win AL West.
Diamondbacks also clinched playoff spot Saturday.

— Padres 6, White Sox 1
San Diego is 81-80; when they won Friday night, it put them at .500 for first time since May 11, when they were 19-19.

— Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27— ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to MAC teams; losses like this get coaches fired.

— Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
PSU led 34-13 with 2:20 left; they were favored by 26 or 27 points.
Nittany Lions threw a 30-yard TD pass with 2:20 left. On a first down play.
QB took snap, faked taking a knee, then stood up and threw to a wide-open receiver.
Coaches are trying to cover spreads now; be advised if you like to bet on dogs.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
 

Udog

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WNBA

Sunday, October 1


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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York @ Connecticut
New York
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 8 games
Connecticut
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing at home against New York
Connecticut is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games


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Cnotes53

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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NY at CON03:00 PMNY -5.0
U 160.5
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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Monday’s 6-pack:
Baseball Wild Card playoff series (best-of-3, starting Tuesday):
— Texas @ Tampa Bay
— Toronto @ Minnesota
— Arizona @ Milwaukee
— Miami @ Philadelphia
— Mets fired manager Buck Showalter; they were 175-148 in his two years.
— Former Red Sox P Tim Wakefield passed away, at age 57.

Quote of the Day
“On the analytics side, I think the information and the resources the Yankees provide are great. I think it’s just about how we use them and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. ………I wouldn’t say [we are] overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”
Aaron Judge

Monday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs?

Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.

Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.

*****************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..

Eagles 34, Commanders 31, OT
— Commanders led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles in 2nd half/OT: 43 plays, 277 yards, 24 points.
— Brown caught nine passes for 175 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS, scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Commanders forced OT on 10-yard TD pass with 0:01 left.
— Washington’s first two drives: 21 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Commanders were 8-17 on third down, Eagles 4-12.
— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.

Rams 29, Colts 23, OT
— Rams led this game 23-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
— LA drove 75 yards for game-winning TD on first drive in OT
— Stafford played whole game, but got hurt (hip??) early in 3rd quarter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rookie WR Pacua caught nine passes for 163 yards, and the game-winning TD.
— Colts tied game 23-all with 1:56 left, on an 83-yard drive.
— Indy converted both 2-point conversions they tried.
— Road team won all four Colts’ games this year.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games, losing last seven SU.
Odd fact: in 1972, Robert Irsay bought the Rams from the estate of the Rams’ owner, who passed away; he traded the Rams to Carroll Rosenbloom, for the then-Baltimore Colts.

Broncos 31, Bears 28
— Lutz kicked 51-yard FG with 1:51 left for the win.
— Down 28-21 with 7:05, Broncos tied game with a defensive TD.
— Denver’s last three drives: 22 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Bears led 28-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Fields was 28-35/335 passing, with four TD’s.
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.

Bills 48, Dolphins 20
— Miami’s first two drives: 14 plays, 142 yards, 14 points.
— Miami last nine drives: 44 plays, 257 yards, six points.
— Dolphins converted only 3-10 third down plays.
— Miami’s opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 123-33.
— Bills’ first nine drives: 46 plays, 393 yards, six TD’s, 2 FG’s.
— Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards, three TD’s.
— Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.

Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
— First three drives, Jaguars ran 22 plays for 146 yards, got TD-FG.
— Jaguars made it 17-0 on a 61-yard pick-6- it was 17-0 at the half.
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down in three games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +8 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Falcons’ first five drives: 22 plays, 53 yards, 3 punts, 2 INT’s.
— Atlanta’s only TD came on 75-yard drive, first drive of 3rd quarter.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.

Ravens 28, Browns 3
— Baltimore had TD drives of 10-94-93-38 yards.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— QB Watson didn’t play; backup Thompson-Robinson was overmatched.
— In his first NFL start, DTR threw 3 INT’s, averaged 1.8 yards/attempt.
— For the game, Cleveland ran 65 plays for 166 yards.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in their losses.

Texans 30, Steelers 6
— Steelers in first half: 24 plays, 53 yards, no points.
— Pittsburgh averaged 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Steelers have been outgained by 140 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Texans’ first three drives: 28 plays, 155 yards, TD-FG-FG
— Rookie QB Stroud averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt last two games.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.

Vikings 21, Panthers 13
— Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-6 on Minnesota’s first series.
— That was Carolina’s only touchdown all day.
— Down 13-7, Vikings scored defensive TD to take lead for good.
— Vikings are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass.
— Carolina led this game 13-7 at halftime.
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Opponents are 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina lost first four games, scoring 10-17-27-13 points.

Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Opponents’ team total is 3-0-1 under this year.
— Under is 13-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road games.
— New Orleans was outgained, 353-197.
— Saints averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 12-7 in Saints’ last 19 home games.
— Last 5+ years, NO is 5-10-1 ATS in NFC South home games.

Titans 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals drove 72 yards for a FG on their first drive- their only score.
— Cincinnati was 2-9 on third down, Tennessee 8-13.
— Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last eighteen road games.
— Titans’ first five drives: 34 plays, 273 yards, 3 TD’s and a FG.
— Tennessee outgained the Bengals, 400-211.
— Titans are 29-18-2 ATS in last 49 games coming off a loss.
— Titans scored 27-27 points in its wins; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.

Chargers 24, Raiders 17
— Chargers’ first five drives: 37 plays, 240 yards, 24 points.
— Chargers’ last six drives: 26 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— QB Herbert played 4th quarter with splint on finger on his left hand.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing in his first NFL start.
— Raiders converted 1-11 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first three games.

Cowboys 38, Patriots 3
— Dallas scored two defensive TD’s in the second quarter.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 15-49.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys’ three wins are by a combined 108-13.
— Patriots drove 64 yards for FG on first drive, their only score of game.
— New England ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— Belichick was 249-75 with Brady as his QB, is 81-93 without him.

49ers 35, Cardinals 16
— 49ers led 21-16 after three quarters.
— SF’s first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Purdy averaged 12.3 yards/pass attempt.
— SF is 9-1 ATS in last nine games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers ran 53 plays; only five of them were on 3rd down (3-5).
— SF won first four games, scoring 30-30-30-35 points.
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Arizona has been outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.

Chiefs 23, Jets 20
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 19 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Chiefs rest of game: 50 plays, 191 yards, 6 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 13 plays, 43 yards, no points.
— Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter.
— Wilson was 28-39/245 passing, with two TD’s.
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
 

Cnotes53

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring college basketball teams last year, and their record:
86.1— Gonzaga, 31-6
85.4— Toledo, 27-8
83.3— Oral Roberts, 30-5
82.8— Southern Utah, 24-13
81.9— Youngstown State, 24-10
81.9— Arizona, 28-7

Quote of the Day
“I would tell you that I am a lot more critical of myself than anybody on the outside…….There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Florida Gators’ football coach Billy Napier

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game?

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.

********************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

Seahawks 24, Giants 3
Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 12 times for 67 yards.
Leading 17-3, Seahawks scored on a 97-yard pick-6.
Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.

NFL divisional trends, thru four weeks:
NFC East— 5-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North— 4-6-2 ATS outside the division
NFC South— 3-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC West— 8-0-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East— 5-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North— 3-4-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South— 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC West— 3-9 ATS outside the division

College football trends, in conference games only:
AAC home favorites 2-5 ATS
ACC home underdogs 6-3 ATS
Big X favorites 9-3 ATS, 7-2 at home
Big 14 home underdogs 2-5 ATS
Conference USA favorites 4-2 ATS
MAC home teams are 1-6 ATS
Mountain West home teams are 4-3 ATS
Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 ATS
SEC favorites are 10-5 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs are 5-3 ATS

— Indiana Hoosiers fired their offensive coordinator Sunday; Hoosiers are 1-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 3-14-17 points in the three losses. Their lone I-A win was 29-27 over Akron.
The new OC is Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple, where he went 64-50 with seven bowl appearances.

— Word of the Day— Bamboozle— to deceive someone by tricking them.

— One of the more unfortunate baseball trends is that the Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games; their last playoff win was in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, when Johan Santana blanked New York 2-0, throwing seven shutout IP.
Twins are hosting Toronto this week, in the first round of this year’s playoffs, trying to put an end to a very long losing streak.

— Giants, Mets and Angels have already fired their managers; not sure why the front office people who assembled these underachieving teams still have their jobs, but they do.
Angels pay 3B Anthony Rendon more $$$ than Ohtani or Trout; the last three years, he’s played in 148 of a possible 486 games. This is Phil Nevin’s fault?

— Meanwhile, in the Bronx, New York has now spent over $3B in player salary since their last World Series title, yet GM Brian Cashman keeps his job- they’re even bringing manager Aaron Boone back next year. Go figure.

— Mariners’ P George Kirby threw a knuckleball in Seattle’s game vs Texas Sunday, to honor the late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who passed away this weekend, at age 57.

— Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Falcons in England Sunday; they’re staying over the pond this week, and play Buffalo this Sunday. Does that give the Jaguars an advantage, staying overseas two weeks in a row?

— NC State is switching QB’s this week; sophomore MJ Morris will replace Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to State after starting for three years at Virginia. Wolfpack lost 13-10 at home to Louisville Friday, which prompted the change.

— Duke QB Riley Leonard has a high ankle sprain, is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough broke his leg, is out for the year.

— NBA’s Portland Trailblazers traded All-Star G Jrue Holiday to the Celtics, in exchange for C Robert Williams, G Malcolm Brogdon and two 1st-round draft picks, one in 2024, one in 2029.
The 2029 draft pick is likely going to be a kid who is in 7th grade right now.

— If the playoffs started today (wait, they do start today!!!)
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Toronto @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Miami @ Philadelphia

— Damn, September went by quick; baseball’s regular season is over, training camps for NHL/NBA teams are starting, this is Week 5 in the NFL already. Time flies when you’re having fun.
 

Cnotes53

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Rangers 3, Rays 0— Montgomery tossed 7 shutout IP.
— Tampa Bay is 5-13 in its last 18 playoff games.
— Twins 3, Blue Jays 1— Royce Lewis homered twice.
— Minnesota ends its 18-game postseason losing streak.
— Arizona 6, Brewers 3— Arizona hit three HR’s off of Burnes
— Phillies 4, Marlins 1— Wheeler allowed one run in 6.2 IP.

Quote of the Day
“We playing football. He’s mad he got hit? What do most quarterbacks do when they don’t want to get hit? They go down. I don’t really know what else to tell him about that.”
Giants’ LB Isaiah Simmons, talking about Monday night’s game with Seattle

Wednesday’s quiz
Before last night, who was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game?

Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.

Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.

*******************************************

Wednesday’s Den: How NFL offenses are doing on first drive of a half

Today we’re looking at how NFL offenses do on their first drive of each half; four games for each team, so eight drives for everyone.

First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?

— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).
Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)
Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)
— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.

— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.

— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.

— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.
None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.

First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?

— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)

— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.

— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.

— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.

— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.

— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.

First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.
Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.

— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)

— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.

— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.

— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league.
Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.
NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation.
 
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