WNBA buys for 2022

[RBD]

Not a sport I usually dabble in but I'll try and have some fun with it, small wagers, killing time until college football starts in two months.
Started tracking, charting four situational spots three days ago, same plays I used in NBA; doing okay with some Fades.

Designation tags:

PTO 0-0
PTU 0-0
PW 0-2

OTO 2-0 (one was an OT Win; would have been an Un for a Loss)
OTU 0-2
OW 0-1

Today I have . . .

OW (0-1) LA, Ind
OTO (2-0) LA/Dal
OTU (0-2) LV/Min, Ind/Sea

I'll likely add to these buys later, but have two for now, fading three spots..

Buys:
Dal-4
Sea -13
Ind/Sea Ov 160

 

[RBD]

Recap:1-2
Record: 1-2

There was one spot yesterday, Phx/Chi Un; it won.

​​​​​​Updated charts:

PTO 0-0 PTU 0-0
PW 0-2

OTO 3-0 (one was an OT Win; would've been an Un for a Loss)
OTU 2-3
OW 1-2

Today's spots:
OTO has Wash/Conn, KC/Min
OTU has NY/LA
OW has Wash

Buys:
Conn -6
NY/LA Ov 162'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 1-4

NY/LA was on a solid pace for an Over to get me a 1-1 split on the day, but I got killed by NY's 14 and 17 Q3 and Q4, a second half of just 31 pts.

So, what have I learned in my first week of WNBA plays?
There are some beastly-looking women in this world, and many of them play for the WNBA.

I have a + balance in my WNBA account but negative balance here, which means I'm not doing a good job of picking spots to recommend buys on.
I hope to improve on that this week.

Updated charts:


PTO 0-0
PTU 0-0
PW 0-2

OTO 3-2 (one was an OT Win; would've been an Un for a Loss)
OTU 4-3
OW 2-2
.
Today, one game qualifies:
OW Ind -2

No buys.

 

[RBD]

I didn't fade the OW spot yesterday, scared off by the double digit spread of -11; Sea wins by 22. Bad decision to lay off. (It's sooo easy in hindsight.)

Four spots to choose from today.

PT Un has Chi/Min Un 167' (0-0)
OT Ov has Chi/Min Ov 167' and NY/LV Un 170 (3-2)
OT Un has Wash/Atl Un 157 (4-3)

Though both OT spots have winning records, I expect these to be Fades. But, not a lot of data, so who knows?

Conflicting spots with PT having Chi/Min Un and OT saying the game goes Ov.
No data to use to give me a lean, though gun to the head I'd go with the PT Ov and Fade the OT Un.

I'm going to look at the records of these teams in these spots and see if anything there gives me a lean.
Back with a buy if I see anything.

Update:
Chi is 1-0 in Overs, but Min is 0-1; no help there.
Same with NY/LV, NY is 1-0 but LV is 0-1.
No edges.

 

[RBD]

No recap, no buys yesterday.

Updated charts:

PTO 0-0
PTU 1-0
PW 0-2

OTO 4-3
OTU 5-3
OW 2-3

Today's spots:
OW has NY
OTU has NY/Phx at 164 or >; if the # drops to 163' or < it no longer qualifies

The NY/Phx spot is interesting. The Liberty are playing B2B (back to back games) after a big win last night,beating Las Vegas by 9 pts as 11 pt underdogs.
So, this brings up a number of thoughts for a 'capper:

How does NY perform, SU & ATS, all games, when playing B2B?
How does NY perform SU & ATS in B2B RD games?
What do totals look like in these situations?
Does their PF go higher or lower? PA go higher or lower?

Answers?

I don't know, I checked their schedule and they never play B2B games.
Took a look at last year - same thing, no B2B's!
WNBA teams in general don't seem to play B2B.
But hey, they should be earning as much as the guys in the NBA. who play more games and bring in much greater revenue.
Because "equality." Or something.

College football kicks off on Aug 27, and it can't come soon enough for me . . .

 

[RBD]

Second half begins today. I'm at 1-4 using mainly fades of situational spots I've been tracking starting last week.
Here's what I have:

PTO 0-0
PTU 1-0
PW 0-2

OTO 4-3
OTU 5-4
OW 3-3

I'm hoping some of these will provide some Fade material, but they're all hovering around .500 for now.

Here's today's spots:

PTU (1-0) has LV/NY Un 174. The Atl/Chi games just misses, but if it goes to 164 or > it qualifies.
OTU (4-3) has Atl/Chi and LV/NY.
OTO (5-4) has Dal/Sea Ov 163'
OW (3-3) has Sea CORRECTION:, OW has LA not Sea

LV/NY qualifies for both spots, combined 6-4; they played last week, total was 168', landed on 223.
That's a whopping 49 pts higher than tonight's #.
Shooting %'s were high, for both teams and for both FG's and 3 pter's, but not high enough to make me think it was shooting % and not styles that led to the high score.
I checked the score for any other games against each other this season, but no other meetings.

Down a few units (small $ since I don't know the WNBA) I think I'll gather some more data before jumping in with my next play.
No buys today.

 

[RBD]

Bad move laying off yesterday's spots - every fade won.

Updated charts:

PTO 0-0
PTU 1-1
PW 0-2

OTO 4-4
OTU 5-6
OW 3-4

One game today, one spot today, OTO (4-4) has Conn/Ind Ov.
Not sure about taking any WNBA games Un, four of five games yesterday went Over, and not by a small margin.
One game was by just 2 pts, but the others were by 18, 34, and 60 (though that one had OT, too.)

Indy home games tend to be Overs, so no fade for me today.

 

[RBD]

NY/LV qualifies as an Un, for both PT (1-1) & OT (5-6)

No buy; back with the rest of the plays (LV/NY 8 am start PST)

Good call not Fading Con/Ind yesterday as it went Over. But it should have stayed Under. First three Q's: 35, 34, 42. A combined 111.
The total was 162', it would take 52 pts in the 4th to go Over - what would you play if you could live bet a total of 162'?
I'll sweeten the deal - one team is up by 19 pts, which means for the final minutes of the game they'll use the play clock to limit possessions for the other team to seal the win. You'd buy the Under, right?
Q4 saw 59 pts scored, a bad beat for Under takers as Conn kept up a fast pace, and fouling late in the game with a double digit lead..
WNBA is as stupid as some college teams, no concept of clock management.
I saw a game that was tied, under 5 seconds and one team fouled the other, AWAY from the basket, not blocking a lay up.

I jumped in earlier because there was an 8 am start, LV/NY again, qualifying as a PTU & OTU, just like on Tue 7/11.
Here's what I posted that day:

"LV/NY qualifies for both spots (PTU & OTU); they played last week, total was 168', landed on 223.
That's a whopping 49 pts higher than tonight's #.
Shooting %'s were high, for both teams and for both FG's and 3 pter's, but not high enough to make me think it was shooting % and not styles that led to the high score."
That game went Ov by 39 pts!
Two games, both supposed to be Under according to both PT & OT systems, both sailed Over.
Same situation today. I stayed off it because I didn't want to be in the "Johnny-Come-Lately spot" and try to cash in on a spot I just stayed off of.
MISTAKE! AGAIN! At halftime they are on a pace to go Ov by approx. 45 pts.

OTO (5-4 after yesterday's win) has Dal/Min.
OWF (3-4) has Dal

Buys:
Min -4'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-5

OPO (6-4) has Min/Indy Ov today.

Buys:
Min/Indy Ov 166

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 1-6

Well that certainly sucked. Lost by a bucket, largely due to a 15-15 second quarter.

One game today, Chi/Dal, and it qualifies as a PTU.
The spot has a record of 1-2 but Min is 1-0 in the spot so no buy for me. Down 5 units I need something stronger for my next play.


​​​

 

[RBD]

I got halfway through my write-up Sunday morning when I got called away. Never got back to finish it.
Was a good day for Fades too, three were clear winners, the other two were losses if you bought early (by 1 pt and by a hook) but winners if you looked at which way the line was moving and waited to get a better number.

Here's what I have for updated charts:

PTO 0-0
PTU 1-2
PW 0-3

OTO 7-5
OTU 6-8
OW 4-6

I'm at 1-6. The W spots combine for 4-9, hope to get a few more this week to buy as I struggle to knock down my 5 game differential.

Today . . .
PT Un has Atl/LV (1-2)
OT Ov has Atl/LV (7-5)

A 7-5 record vs a 1-2 record says look at the Over, but the line is wonky. It opened 172' but I see everything from 169 to 173 out there.
Is it moving up, or down, or both?
I'll watch for a while, see where it goes, if I buy it I'll add an update in this post.

 

[RBD]

No recap, no buys last time in.
Record: 1-6

Really screwed up yesterday. Had a OW spot (4-6) on Sea.
Marked it as a good spot to buy, fading Sea and taking Chi -2'.
Missed that it was a 9 am start, didn't get my bet in.

Found out mid-game, monitored live lines hoping to get in at -3' or better.
Chi was leading all the way, but twice I got the -3' only to be shut off )"Line has changed) after trying to get a but on.

Didn't stick to my guns on my #, settled for a -4' with just under four minutes left.
Chi misses two FT's in the final minute, and Sea, with no hope of winning down by 7 pts, decides to take a meaningless shot instead of dribbling out the final seconds, and . . hits a 3 pt'er.
I lost by a hook. Two mistakes: didn't check the start time, and didn't stick to my # at -3'. And a +1 turns into a -1.1.

Today, EARLY start.
OTU (6-8) has NY/Wash. NY is 1-4 in this spot, Wash is 1-0. Fading it.
Also taking Wash even though it's not in one of my systems (these are are all small $ anyway, so no big deal.)

Also have OTO (7-6) with Ind/LV, and an OW spot (4-7) that says take Atl.

Buys:
NY/Wash Ov 156'
Wash -8
LA -2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 3-7

Knocked down a little of the deficit yesterday.
Today's choices . . .
OTU (7-8) has Sea/Phx Un, OW (4-8) says take Dal

At 4-8 I should take the OW fade and buy Chi but I don't like the -8.
I'll wait for a better spot.

 

[RBD]

Good move staying off Chicago - 8, they won by 6.

Three spots today:
OTO (7-7) has NY/Chi OTU (7-9) has LA/LV
OW (5-8) has NY

Buys:
LA/LV Ov 173'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-9

Buys:
Chi -3 (OW spot, 6-8)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-10

A LOT of work to do if I'm going to reduce a 6 game deficit (3 of those have come when using Chi; might do well to avoid them as my take on them is off.)
Added a few more plays to track, trying to find something I can ride for a few W's.

Updated charts:


PTO 0-0
PTU 2-2
PW 0-3

OTO 7-7
OTU 8-10
OW 7-8

BTO 0-1
BTU 0-1
BW 0-0

A lot to choose from today.

PW has Min, Wash

OTO has Min/Atl Ov
OTU Wash/Dal Un
OW has Min, Sea, Wash

BTO has Sea/Con Ov, Wash/Dal Ov
BW has Min, Wash, Sea, LA

All three say take Min and Wash so I'm definitely fading those.

Buys:
Atl -1'
Dal -1
Con -3'
Phx -5

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2
Record: 6-12

I haven't given up on WNBA and MLB, I've just been spending most of my handicapping time working on my college football stuff. I have a deficit (small money) in both sports that I'll try and work off little by little when I can, if I can, before the football season starts, when all my time will go to college ball and investments there.

Buys:
Phx +2

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-12

Phx wins SU as a dog last time in, deficit at 5 games plus juice now.

Below, today's buys and W % based on these plays in my 2022 WNBA charts.

Update: lines added

Buys:
Con/LA Ov (59%) (wait to buy; line dropping, opened 163', 162' now) got 162'
Chi/LV Un (fits two spots, 83% & 52%) (wait; opened 174, 176' now) 176'
Chi (fits two spots, 57% & 70%) (wait; LV -1' currently but everybody loves them, should get a better # later today) +1'

 

[Old School]

FWIW

Aces’ Dearica Hamby out 2-4 weeks with knee injury
https://sportsnaut.com/aces-dearica-hamby-out-2-4-weeks-with-knee-injury/

my own opinion...huge loss for Aces going forward..Their bench already sucked as the worst in the league that's why the coach moved Hamby to the bench when her numbers when South ..She being a 2 time 6th man of the year winner ..but was a starter for almost the entire year this season..This should be a great game if Vegas doesn't get gazzed in the 4th.The Sky go 9 deep

 

[RBD]

Old School, thanks for stopping by, and thanks for the tip. Hopefully her absence will be felt tonight, the line is tight in a game that should be tight, too.
I was hoping to get better than +1' but so far I only see on or two +2 out there. Did well to wait on buying the Un though, 177 available now.