World Snooker Championships

[crookycymru]

Apologies for the lack of picks over the last two days. I have been away in Liverpool...I will have 2nd round picks up in about 1-2 hours.

Good to see so many getting involved with the thread!!

 

[crookycymru]

2nd ROUND PICKS :

John Higgins vs Sean Storey

Some would look at Storey's easy 10-4 win over Joe Perry in the 1st round, and suggest I would be mad to back his opponent conceding 5.5 frames. However, that 10-4 win was against a player who could hardly pot a ball. Storey hardly managed any breaks of over 50 himself, yet it was still enough. This does not bode well for the standards of that match.
Storey is up against a totally different class of player tomorrow. John Higgins is world class, but has been below his high standards this season to date. However, he will fancy his chances in a good draw, to lift his 2nd world title. He beat a very sound player in Ian McCullough in the first round, and it will be a big ask for Sean Storey to take eight frames off Higgins. I suspect Higgins will be looking for a quick victory here, so as to get more time on the practice table.
This line was available at evens this morning, but a 15 point tip by the UK's Racing Post has forced Paddy Power to cut that price. The Racing Post should be proved right on this occasion, as I see a 13-5, 13-6 win for Higgins over a mismatched opponent.

2 Point John Higgins (-5.5) at 4/5 with PaddyPower

 

[crookycymru]

Stephen Lee vs Jimmy White

I watched the first session of the Jimmy White match the other day, where he fell 6-3 behind to James Wattana, and all I saw was a player who had little confidence, looked under pressure, and very much the player who has hardly won a match all season. The next day, expecting a defeat, I recieved news through my mobile phone, that Jimmy had won 10-6, and could not quite believe it. From what I have heard, James Wattana was awful in the second session, but to take seven frames against any opponent at this level, is no mean feat, so praise must go to Jimmy, coming out of a awkward situation.
Stephen Lee meanwhile, avoided a potential banana skin against Steve Davis, and came through unscathed. There were times in that second session, where he looked like the player who was the the most consistent on tour last season. His from this year has been a let down, but I cannot see Jimmy causing him too many problems.
Ladbrokes are asking Jimmy to take ten frames. If Jimmy does that, then it will be a close match, but over a best of 25 frames, I expect Stephen Lee to have too much class, and see this match around the 13-7, 13-8 mark in favour of Stephen Lee.

1 Point Stephen Lee (-3.5) at 5/6 with Ladbrokes

 

[crookycymru]

I am adding one secound round bet for tomorrow. Both of yesterdays bets are in the balance. John Higgins leads 10-6, after leading 10-4. Storey is now only allowed one more frame, so we need a fast start from Higgins, and lets hope he wants to get it over and done with.

Jimmy White won four frames on the trot to lead Stephen Lee 5-3 early in that match.

Marco Fu vs Alan McManus

I was highly impressed with Marco Fu in beating Ronnie O'Sullivan. He seemed to be cueing very well, and remained composed under the 147 euphoria. It is a tribute to Fu to say that Ronnie did not even play too badly in losing, it was just, on the night, Marco Fu was the classier player.
Alan 'Angles' McManus as predicted was involved in a three day marathon before disposing of Nigel Bond. His game these days is totally relient on effecient safety play, which leads to boring snooker, which is hardly a spectacle.
It is important that Fu does not get bogged down in the type of scrappy frames, McManus craves. If this happens, then McManus will win, but the player from Hong Kong, should be able to rely on his break building to get him through.
I have no hesitation in taking the 4/6 and making this the heaviest bet of the tournament to date.

4 Points Marco Fu at 4/6 with SportingOdds

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

crooky, this one was you... SOOOOOOOOOOO CLOSE!!!!

here's my "parlay du jour"...heh heh heh.

Selection Price

S Lee V S Davis
S Lee 1.50

M Stevens V C Small
M Stevens 1.36

A Mcmanus V N Bond
A Mcmanus 1.30

J Swail V T Drago
J Swail 1.40

J White V J Wattana
J White 1.50

P Hunter V A Carter
P Hunter 1.29

Bet Type Combination of above 6 selections (all selections must be correct to win)

Bet Price 7.16

50 bucks US gets you back 358 bucks US.

worth a shot, if these guys are rightly favoured.

results:

April 19

Bet US$50.00 to get US$358.00

A Mcmanus Win

J Swail Lose

J White Win

M Stevens Win

P Hunter Win

S Lee Win

SO CLOSE!!!!!
FAWK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[crookycymru]

Yes mate the parlay was unlucky. I called the Tony Drago upset, as Joe Swail was really a poor price, but the rest won well.

Any more parlays coming from Canada??

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

Any more parlays coming from Canada??

we'll see.



i'd like to parlay a few plays with ken doherty but the odds are shite.

 

[crookycymru]

2nd ROUND PICKS (contd) :

Paul Hunter vs Matthew Stevens

Probably the clash of the tournament so far, as two of the games young stars battle it out. Both have title credentials, and are in with a great chance of winning the tournament this year.
Matthew Stevens is probably the most liked player on tour. The complete gentleman, he has suffered from a drop in form, since the death of his father last year, a person who has followed his snooker career since Matthew first started potting balls. We all know that he likes the Crucible, having been a former finalist here, but it is hard to believe that Matthew has never won a ranking tournament, although he has won the prestigious B+H at Wembley.
Paul Hunter is a superb player from Leeds, who already has a hatful of tournaments to his name, but he has been poor in the past here at the Crucible, but managed a 10-5 win over Ali Carter in round one, having been 8-1 up.
It is hard to pick a winner here, and the bookies have recognised this, by pricing it up closely. However, it is hard to get away from Stevens brilliant record at the Crucible, and while he has been there and won over this distance, Hunter is still a relative rookie at winning over two days, and over twenty five frames.

1 Point Matthew Stevens at 11/10 with Ladbrokes

 

[crookycymru]

Second round

Hendry bt Henry 13-10
Ebdon bt Drago 13-5
Higgins bt Storey 13-7
Lee bt White 13-11
Williams bt Hann 13-2
Fu bt McManus 13-7
Doherty bt Dott 13-12
Hunter bt Stevens 13-6



A good and profitable second round. The profits are building now, as the tournament enters the second week.

Marco Fu won as expected, hitting my biggest bet of the season. Alan McManus was never really in it, and when he did close in on Fu, Marco had the class to pull away in each session.

I am slightly disappointed with Matthew Stevens, but it seems he was outclassed against Paul Hunter, who is playing very well, and has the form to be bang in contention.

The quarter finals start tomorrow, and each and every match promises to be a cracker. Back with quarter final picks later tonight.

 

[crookycymru]

QUARTER FINALS PICKS :

John Higgins vs Ken Doherty

With the eight players left in the quarter finals, you could make a case for all, to go on to win it. However, I am prepared to rule Ken Doherty out of contention.
While John Higgins, has had a days rest after beating Sean Storey 13-7, Ken Doherty had the fright of his life in a ten hour epic, in which he finally prevailed against Graeme Dott. Add this to the nineteen frame marathon in Round One against Stuart Murphy, and it is fair to say that Doherty must be more mentally drained than any other player in the tournament. I would not forsee this as a problem, had he been allowed a day or two rest, but he is straight back into action tomorrow, without having a chance to catch his breath.
This is in complete contrast to John Higgins, who will be well prepared for this quarter final. Higgins has seen off two potentially threatning, yet ultimately beatable opponents in Sean Storey, and Ian McCullough, and has been allowed to play his way into form.
Having said this, I am fairly disappointed at the price offered for Higgins, so eager to back him somehow in the match, I am tempted by Ladbrokes offer on the spread. This bet will be a loser if Ken Doherty wins eleven frames, but having been involved in two epics already, I cannot see Ken having the stomach for a third successive battle, against what is now a more formidable player than he has faced to date.

2 Points John Higgins (-2.5) at 8/11 with Ladbrokes

 

[crookycymru]

Mark Williams vs Stephen Hendry

The clash of the round between the two form players of the season. Whoever wins this match will have a strong claim to reach the final, with both fancied to beat either Stephen Lee or Marco Fu in the semis.
The fact that these two are great friends will matter not one bit tomorrow, as both will be so keen to beat each other.
The crucial factor in this match, is that most players would be intimidated playing Hendry at the Crucible.....just ask Jimmy White. However, Mark Williams will not care one bit, and I would go as far to say that Mark Williams is the only player on the planet who would be able to intimidate Hendry. Mark Williams lazy attitude between frames gives off the impression that he cares little, yet he is the type of player who cares nothing for century breaks, and settles instead just to clinch the frame.
I came into this tournament with personal doubts surrounding Mark Williams, while quietly fancying Hendry, yet the 13-2 annahilation of Quentin Hann has dampened those doubts.
Had Hendry played a better player in the earlier rounds, than he would have been out. Gary Wilkinson, and Drew Henry had chances in most frames to put Hendry away, and if he makes the same mistakes here, then he will be on the wrong end of a hammering. I am not going to predict a landslide victory, but am extremely confident of a Williams win for Wales!

3 Points Mark Williams at 8/11 with William Hill

 

[crookycymru]

Peter Ebdon vs Paul Hunter

The reigning World Champion faces the most exciting young star in snooker at the moment in Paul Hunter.
People should not be taken in by Ebdon's relative easy progress so far. He has faced two poor players in Gerard Greene, and Tony Drago. The Drago match was a farce, with Ebdon playing the ultimate mind games in taking prolonged toilet breaks.However, Drago hit the self destruct button, and fell to a heavy defeat.
Paul Hunter could not have been more impressive. A potential banana skin was avoided in round one, before hammering much fancied Welshman Matthew Stevens 13-6. He is playing with so much confidence, and carries little pressure, as not too many expect big things from a relative newcomer to this format.This is in contrast to Ebdon who is becoming the first player to defend his crown having won the Embassy for the first time last year.
Ebdon will battle, Ebdon will fight, but take Hunter to reach the semis.

2 Points Paul Hunter at 4/6 with Ladbrokes

 

[crookycymru]

Mark Williams (Wal) beat Stephen Hendry (Sco) 13-7
Ken Doherty (Irl) bt John Higgins (Sco) 13-8
Paul Hunter (England) bt Peter Ebdon (England) 13-12
Stephen Lee (Eng) bt Marco Fu (Hkg) 13-7


One result cost us going 3-0 in the quarter finals. It was quite astonishing that John Higgins fell behind 8-0 after the first session. Ken Doherty's mental fatigue I spoke about in my preview was non existent. To give you some idea of what a shock it was, before the match Ken Doherty was about 2000/1 to win 13-0. Apart from that first session, John Higgins was the better player, but it was all too late...the damage had been done.

Meanwhile Mark Williams was a easy winner against Stephen Hendry. It looks now that he can go all the way and win it for the second time, as I dont see a player left who can beat him. Paul Hunter probably has the best chance, who was another winner for us, scraping home in a 13-12 thriller to end reigning champion Peter Ebdon's dream of becoming the first maiden winner to defend the title at the Crucible.

Semi final picks will be up shortly.

 

[crookycymru]

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP OUTRIGHT WINNER

I came into the tournament with big doubts on Mark Williams, as his form since he had his cue smashed up was poor. However, a top class cue doctor has rebuilt the cue, and he has breezed through to the semi finals of the World Championships.
A semi final against Stephen Lee will not worry him, and he will then face either Ken Doherty or Paul Hunter. I would expect Mark to beat both these players over the course of thirty five frames of snooker.
He is so laid back during matches, it seems he inflicts even more pressure on his opponents, due to his table manner, and although Paul Hunter will probably be able to ignore this, you would still have to fancy Mark. Already guaranteed World Number 1 status for next season, it would be a perfect way to end a great season by winning the Embassy for a second time.
At close to even money, Mark Williams should be snapped up, as he will start a odds on shot, whoever he plays in the final, and this quote will look very big by Sunday.

3 Points Mark Williams at 9/10 with Betfair

 

[crookycymru]

Ken Doherty vs Paul Hunter

A cracking semi final between two contrasting players.Ken Doherty is the Irishman who has already won here, and comes to the semi courtesy of a gruelling 64 frames of snooker. His safety game is often top class, and his ability to make crucial breaks at important times of the match means he is a very difficult player to player over this long format.
Paul Hunter is the young up and coming wonderkid of snooker. Certainly a future World Champion, he has never been so far in the World Championships. However, he is more than a match for any player on top form, and he may well have enough class to get through against Doherty. Having watched Hunter's quarter final win over Peter Ebdon what impressed me most about Hunter was his ability to match Ebdon in the safety department. This part of his game will be crucial against Doherty, as he is without doubt the more fluent break builder of the two players.
At the time of this post, only one firm has priced up the semis, so I will resist posting a bet at Bet 365 quote of 8/11 in the hope of picking a better price in the morning.

1.5 Points Paul Hunter to beat Ken Doherty at 5/6 with Ladbrokes

 

[mrshoes]

:shrug: were the matches played yet:shrug: If so who won or when are they plated They were listed on the board at canbet the other day so i put a couple a bucks on them. They are no longer on the board and I cant see any wins or losses posted to my account. Thanx in advance

 

[alb]

Hunter ahead 11-5 (best of 33).

 

[crookycymru]

Mark Williams (Wal) bt Stephen Lee (Eng) 17-8
Ken Doherty (Irl) bt Paul Hunter (Eng) 17-16


We were on the wrong end of what was, probably, the greatest ever Crucible comeback. Paul Hunter led 15-9, and you could get a huge price on Ken Doherty winning going into the last session. As it was, Doherty had absolutely everything going for him, he got lucky, and had the run of the balls. This kind of thing happens in sport, which is why it is such a great game.

On a positive note, Mark Williams led easily, and that 9/10 quote is now as predicted earlier in the week, a huge price, with most firms having Williams at long odds on to win his second title.

I will return with plays on the final, if any!

 

[crookycymru]

Final Latest Score :

Mark Williams 11-5 Ken Doherty

Anybody who backed Mark Willaims when I posted that play, would now be in a position to lay off. Backing Ken Doherty at a big price would ensure you lose nothing should Mark Williams actually lose, and you would be still over five units up on he tournament.

After our loss on Paul Hunter in the semi finals, I would not rule anything out, but I would doubt Ken would be able to do the impossible again, while Mark Williams is far more unlikely to let this happen than Paul Hunter.

 

[crookycymru]

WORLD SNOOKER CHAMPIONSHIP RESULT :

Mark Williams 18-16 Ken Doherty

The final was a absolute classic. Mark Williams led 11-5 overnight, but by the end of this afternoons session, the score was 12-12, and to be really honest I fancied Doherty. I was very grateful I laid Mark Williams late last night at around 1.09 with a UK betting exchange.

It could have gone either way this evening. Up to the interval where the score was 14-14, I still fancied Doherty had the edge. However, Mark Williams came out a different player, and took two quick frames to lead 16-14. As ever, Ken battled back to 16-16 before Mark Williams went up a gear to secure the victory at 18-16.

I have total respect for Ken Doherty. The strength of character he has shown during this tournament has been amazing. At times, his fortune had me thinking he was destined to win it this year, but it just wasnt to be. Time and time again, he battled back from the brink of defeat. Had he won this year, then it would surely had gone down as the best ever performance by a player to win the World Championship.

Finally, as somebody who lives less than a mile away from Mark Williams local snooker club, I am proud to see him win for the second time. This area is a hot bed for snooker players, and some greats have come from the South Wales valleys over the years. He is the best snooker player in the world at the moment, and I am convinced he has another world title in the future.

The tournament from a betting point of view was a satisfactory one. For most of the time, when I raised the units, the bets were normally winners, and I hope anybody who has followed has made a few dollars.

Looking forward to next year already!!

2003 World Championship Record :

11-7 +8.19 Units (+?819/$1316 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)