WorldCom Classic

Stanley

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Preview & outright plays:

After the manufactured splendor of Augusta, it is time for a true seaside links. This is one of many changes from last week's venue and while week-to-week changes would appear to not be very enticing, the players are unanimous in their praise of the set-up at Harbour Town and barring any late withdrawals after the stresses of Augusta, this is a high quality field again. The fact that in only four years since 1981 has the winner not been a Major champion is testimony to the field that the WorldCom (formerly MCI) Classic attracts and to the testing nature of the course. On 1 May last year, Harbour Town Golf Club was closed for nine months for a major facelift from Pete Dye, but it hasn't changed any of the characteristics of the holes, only the shape of the bunkers and the wooden panels that have made the course famous.

With much narrower fairways than last week and the smallest greens the pros experience all season represent, this represents quite a change from the Masters. With an emphasis on accuracy, particularly in hitting the tiny greens, this is no course for the big hitters. The fact that there are only three par-5s adds to the downplaying of length and the collectively the four par-3s are the toughest on Tour; this is where much of the title race will be decided. In another change from last week, we are back on Bermuda greens and one particular feature of previous leaderboards has been that they have been dominated by good putters who can scramble well around these tiny greens.

One notable player with a local connection is Davis Love who is a four-time winner here and has been playing the course since the age of thirteen. He is not selected this week because of poor odds and a lingering suspicion that he still will not enough tournaments when in contention. Instead, the three outright plays this week are Vijay Singh, Tom Lehman and Jeff Sluman. Singh did not feature too prominently in the Masters last week, but the champion has successfully defended his title just twice in Masters history, so that is no great surprise. That his 3rd round 73 was his only round over-par this year is indicative of the great run of form he is enjoying. He finished 3rd last year and with a ranking of 2nd in the putting average stats, he should finish very high on the leaderboard this week.

Tom Lehman gets the 2nd spot ahead of Mark Calcavecchia because of the latter's reluctance to play here and poor record when he has. Lehman may be 100th in this year's putting average stats and 109th in driving accuracy, but he has a tremendous record around this course. He has played here every year since 1991 and his worst finish has been 36th. Last year he played the weekend in 10-under-par to almost catch Stewart Cink; he finally finished 2nd. With the credentials of a Major winner and a specialist on tough courses, he could very easily defy his Tour stats and again be a real contender this week.

Finally, Jeff Sluman is the value play. Like Lehman, he is a tough course specialist and like both picks, is a Major winner already. He ranks 9th in this year's putting average stats and has a decent record on this course, finishing 2nd two years ago only on a playoff with Glen Day and Payne Stewart. He did not play last week and comes into the event fresh and focused.

Outright plays:

Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Tom Lehman to win 25/1 e.w. @ Easybets
Jeff Sluman to win 50/1 e.w. @ DAS
 

Ice Picks

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Will work on this a bit more, but one name that jumps out at me, because he played well at the Masters is Lee Jantzen [34:1]

Any thoughts on Faldo [101:] who seems to be coming into form, and Pavin [81:1], and Bob May [81:1] ???

All odds from www.sportodds.com.au

[This message has been edited by Ice Picks (edited 04-10-2001).]
 

Ian

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Ice Picks
The key this week will be finding the small greens so GIR stats could well be crucial
Leonard from being 1st for GIR at beginning of season has slipped every week and is now 118th he also has not finished higher than 30th in the last 5yrs
Faldo - I personally would not touch and has finished no higher than 29th in 5yrs
Pavin is 166th for GIR
May is recovering from an injury and is making his first appearance here

Just my quick thoughts
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Outrights To Show (4 places)1/2 unit each @ Oly.They have win odds listed but not put up show yet however unless there are some big moves these are 1/4 current win odds and should hold.
Calc 5/1-Langer 9/1-Mediate 9/1-Sluman 11/1

If you'll note Stans writeup this is unusual course with small greens and tough par 3's.Did a little adjusting on criteria in selections this week by discounting driving stats and factoring just GIR,Putting,par 3 scoring and scrambling.Also as always one must have made cut at least 75% of starts for year or be hot as hell to be considered..Taking the above into consideration only 1 player ranked in top 20 in all catagories and that being Calc.Others making the A list were Faxon,Langer,Durant,Tway,Mediate and Kelly with Sluman missing by a wisker.Tway was not available so tweeked the rest considering odds and prior course form and bumped Sluman up cause he has cashed twice on this wager this year.Probably boring for most but thought I'd go through process I use on outrights,when I'm not using the throwing darts method
wink.gif
 

Ice Picks

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Ian - thanks for the input. I get those 2 mixed up all the time. I meant Lee Jantzen and not Justin Leonard. I did not realize May had been injured.

I think Love should not be overlooked here, despite missing the cut in August. That was more of a mental lapse, trying an aggressive recoverery at the wrong time. I dont know where he stands in GIR, but he usually dominates this course. I went to this tourner about 2 or 3 years ago, and followed him the last 9.

Should be an interesting week.
 

ag

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anyone any more info on C Perry and if he has recovered from his limp at the masters.

if fit a fair bet at 50s even although he is a choker.

will probably back to win and if in contention oppose him on the spreads late sunday night
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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adding 72 holes
Sluman +115 over Price @ Direcbet
Calc +100 over Faxon @ $plays

Anyone have a clue why 5dimes has some 72 hole matches 30cent and some 20?
 

Stanley

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72-hole plays:

Justin Leonard to beat Aaron Baddeley -118 @ Centrebet [3 units]
Leonard may not have a particularly good record in this event, but he should be competitive this week and that is something that Baddeley has not been on the PGA Tour. He has continued his terrible run this year with missed cuts in both his PGA Tour events and this should be over before the weekend

Frank Nobilo to beat John Daly -135 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Daly remains a standard go-against and his 75-76 finish to his last tournament, the BellSouth Classic, to drop him down to 27th only confirms it. On a tight course there is even more reason to oppose Daly and Nobilo can be counted upon to at least make the weekend to win this matchup

Scott Hoch to beat Greg Norman -125 @ Centrebet
While Norman has struggled around this course over the past two years - 66th and 68th - Hoch has posted two top-15 finishes. As proof of how much Hoch likes this course, he has only missed this event on two occasions in twenty years and has secured ten top-20 finishes in that time. With a month of decent golf behind him, Hoch is one for this matchup

Justin Leonard to beat Adam Scott -111 @ Paddy Power
Like Baddeley, Scott has struggled to bring his Australasian Tour form to the PGA Tour, though at least he did manage an 11th place finish at the Honda Classic. But that was a course for big-hitters and this is certainly not, so this looks to be not such a prosperous week for Australia's younger players on Tour

Scott Verplank to beat Adam Scott -118 @ Easybets [2 units]
Verplank has a better record around this course than Leonard (he finished 11th last year), is better suited to the course setup, being currently ranked 3rd & 4th in the Tour stats for driving accuracy and greens in regulation and is in better form. They should both beat Scott and Verplank should finish in the top-25 as well


ag, I not heard anything about Chris Perry's leg, but I am sure that if there was a nagging injury he would not tee off tomorrow.

DTB, they have always had different lines. The first ones they post have 20-cent lines; the ones they add later have 30-cent lines.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Ive been snoozing I guess Stan,some how thought they did 20's on 72 hole and 30 1st round and beyond.Maybe I getting "oldtimers" if you'll pardon the spelling.
smile.gif
 

Ice Picks

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Thursday matches:

1. MARK CALCAVECHIA [1-35] over CHRIS PERRY

Perry is a good player, but he pulled a muscle at the Masters. He gutted it out, but I played against him every day and won. My guess is that this will still be bothering him at Hilton Head.

2. ROCCO Mediate [-125] over Billy Mayfair

Rocco was a factor at the Masters, and his history is one of playing in hot streaks. This appears to be one, and he may be a good choice to win here.

3. LEE JANTZEN [+105] over Scott Choke

These players are about equal, with the exception that Jantzen has won some majors. I will take the small % here.

4. Fred Funk [-140] over Skip Kendall

Funk was commentating on the Golf Channel during the Masters, but this is a course that suits his game. Dont like laying the big chalk, but he should handle this match.


TO WIN:

Many good comments by the board, and can't disagree with most of them. I am adding to the pot the names of:

PAUL AZINGER at 29/1
JOE DURANT at 34/1
FRED FUNK at 51/1

all odds from www.sportodds.com.au

GOOD LUCK !

ADD: PARNEVIK [-115] over CINK




[This message has been edited by Ice Picks (edited 04-12-2001).]
 

Stanley

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Adding 72-hole plays:

Lee Janzen to beat Robert Allenby -122 @ Five Dimes
Two appearances and two missed cuts is not encouraging for another of this week's Aussie go-againsts. Janzen on the other hand has been a model of consistency on this course with eight cuts made from nine attempts and four top-20 finishes

Frank Lickliter to beat Greg Norman -130 @ Five Dimes
Because of the small greens, being about to putt well and scramble is a prerequisite for good scoring around Harbour Town and Norman is no longer able to compete in those departments. Lickliter is not the best at these, but there is a gulf between them

Note that Five Dimes offer lines for all my plays now
biggrin.gif



1st round plays:

Lee Janzen to beat Robert Allenby -117 @ Five Dimes
Dennis Paulson to beat Thomas Bjorn -115 @ Five Dimes
Chris Perry to beat Mark Calcavecchia +112 @ Five Dimes
Sergio Garcia to beat Stewart Cink -107 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Sergio Garcia to beat Frank Lickliter -118 @ Five Dimes
Frank Lickliter to beat Greg Norman -120 @ Five Dimes
Rocco Mediate to beat Billy Mayfair -118 @ Five Dimes [2 units]

Can't get into Moneyplays at the moment to check their lines
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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adding 72 holes
Azinger -108 over Garcia @ Pinnacle

3balls Garcia-Mediate-Hoch-Zinger-Calc
for 1 unit each match and 1/2 unit combo
Changing format on 3balls to include single matches this week.

Can't get into $plays either Stan.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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1st round @ 5Dimes
Mediate -118 over Mayfair

Been waiting on $plays to to load to see what their line was on match but their still down so will take it where available
 

Ice Picks

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I was disappointed that Sportodds.com.au failed to offer any matches this week. Can anyone recommend another off-shore who may have fuller choices?
 
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