Article from vegasrunner@pregame.com
Article from vegasrunner@pregame.com
This clash began as a war of words that gained momentum via social media. And after months of jabs being thrown by both fighters on Twitter, they will settle their score in the ring.
Just days before facing Khan (25-1, 17 KO) I spent the afternoon at Judah?s Hit Factory Gym in Las Vegas. The five-time world champion (41-6-2, 28 KO) was adamant about becoming the first boxer to unify the light welterweight titles after doing so at welterweight back in 2005.
Judah thought Khan would face Timothy Bradley (WBO and WBC title holder) and then take on the winner for the undisputed 140-lb. title. Instead, Bradley sat on the sidelines, forcing Khan to look elsewhere for an opponent.
Khan also wants to unify the light welterweight title, but then he wants a shot at Floyd Mayweather if Junior gets past Victor Ortiz.
As Judah puts it, "It fell into my lap" after being involved in so many blockbuster fights over the years.
This one may be the biggest. With a win at age 33, Judah would receive his sixth world title and put his name right at the top of the list to face the likes of a Pacquiao or even a rematch with Mayweather. Zab gave Floyd all he could handle and even knocked him down, although Richard Steele called it a slip, before losing a unanimous decision.
At just 24, Khan is a former Olympic silver medalist who won his first world title at 22. After fighting at lightweight and going through a handful of trainers, including Roger Mayweather, Khan suffered his first defeat at the hands of Breidis Prescott. The devastating KO loss took only 54 seconds, and promoter Frank Warren decided to hand Khan off to trainer Freddie Roach.
Since joining forces with Roach, Khan was moved up to light welterweight where he?s won five straight fights.
And, odds makers have Khan a huge favorite of anywhere from -450 to -550.
This should be an easy night for the Brit. In fact, the Over/Under for rounds is being offered as low as 7? and as high as 9?, reflecting it won?t go the full 12. Most don?t give Judah much of a chance against the younger, quicker, and very likely stronger Khan.
But before you go out and lay that chalk thinking it?s easy money, I urge you to take a look at a very live dog.
At an average lay price of -500, the favorite needs better than an 83% win probability to be worth the money. At the average take-back price of +350, the dog would need to win a little more than 22% to offer value.
It all comes down to value and knowing I?m getting the best of it. The betting value here is on Judah. Since returning to the sport, he?s shown so much of the talent and potential that was taken for granted in the past.
Zab is the first to admit he only has himself to blame for any and all downfalls earlier in his career. It all seemed so easy when he first turned pro at 18 and became a world champion by 20. Rather than work on perfecting his craft, Judah instead relied on sheer talent alone.
And at the highest levels, that?s rarely ever enough to get it done.
After finding his faith and escaping many of the temptations that come with success, Judah is more focused than ever on his career. He is now being trained by six-time world champion Pernell Whittaker and fighting back at his ideal weight class.
It?s Khan?s connection to both Manny Pacquiao and Freddy Roach that is the main reason behind the heavy premium being charged by bookmakers. Because as talented as he may be, Khan has not done enough in the ring to warrant being that heavily favored over a veteran like Judah.
All the talk about Judah not having the toughest chin and not having enough stamina in the later rounds can just as easily be said about Khan.
The only question remaining is whether or not Judah can win this fight if it does go the distance. Khan is a relatively busy fighter who throws in bunches, and he usually is able to get ahead on the score cards. So Judah would have to beat him convincingly to get a decision.
I like the fact that Zab was willing to bet Khan 100k this fight won?t go the distance. It?s obvious both camps figure it ends in a knock out. If that?s the case, we?ve already witnessed a handful of upsets in 2011.
Personally, I don?t believe a Judah victory would be much of an upset at all except at the betting window. The only way I could look to bet this fight is by backing Judah at such generous odds.
opcorn2 