8/28-9/01 plays!

[ajoytoy]

YTD: 2-1 (+0.70)

will be adding plays as i review them...have a few already...will look at all the ACC games and a few national games that i am partial too....as always, please ask any questions and add any info that you may have to help this forum win some $$$$!!!


there will be games that i review that i will not put $$ down on....but like em regardless!!


here we go:

Maryland (-8.5)@N. Illinois:
This looks like a very good game and will be highly contested by both teams. Maryland comes in with some big injuries that will keep this game close!! I remeber watching the WF/N.Ill game last year and they impressed me with their close win against a pretty good WF team...But the problem i have this year is they are playing a better ACC team and a better offensive system IMO...NI lost 5 starters on defense and that will be their downfall in this game....while the points are a lot at 8.5, i feel confident in the ML at (-320)...am rolling with UM in this one!

Kent @ Akron (-11):
The Akron ZIPS (love that name) have shown a lot of zip last year and will do the same to the Kent State Golden Flashes!! Akron has huge offensive potential with 9 starters returning from a year that averaged over 400 yards per game!! Kent State will not be able to keep up with the Zips in AKRON! I am all ove this line of
-11!!

Toledo (-1) at UNLV:
Both teams are coming into this season with new signal callers under center!!?? Dont see an over/under yet, but would lean to the under on that info alone (but i dont play totals that often) I have to side with the ROCKETS here with a better returning defense...the Rebels are bringing in new corners and that is where the game will be decided...Like the Rockets in this one at (-1)!!


so far we have:


Maryland ML (-320)
Akron (-11)
Toledo (-1)

all my plays are for 1 unit unless CLEARLY stated!

GL to everyone to the upcoming season!


toy

 

[ajoytoy]

Wake Forest @ Boston College (-12)
This WF team showed a lot of heart last year and i see them to continue this trend this year! WF lost a lot of great players last year with only 3 returning starters to their offense, including a new QB!! The good thing bout Cory Randolph is that he got a lot of limited playing time last year (1 quarter per game) and will not be as nervous as many new QB's would be! The Linbacking core of WF returns intact and they were pretty good last year and should continue that trend. The secondary had 11 picks last year and they return them all also!! This is a quality ACC team that is not getting the recognition that it deserves! BC has a good Qb battle that will bring in a quality player to the field regardless. The O line of BC is where this game will be decided, with 3 new players playing! The BC defense looks solid but will have to prove how good they are very early on! This line is a lot for 2 teams that seems about equal in quality players...I am NOT playing this game, but if i did, i would definitely take the +12 points!

 

[ajoytoy]

Duke @ Virginia (-16):

Duke returns 20 returning starter from last year! But this is Duke we are talking about!:nono: Will they win an ACC game this year?:shrug: Probably, but that has yet to be proven....Duke has some great playmakers in FB Wade and TB Douglas, but this game (and all their games) will be decided on how well the Blue Devils defense steps up!! They showed great promise last year by allowing only 120 yards per game, but the thing about old stats is that teams learn from mistakes and correct then the following year...Duke has good (not great) players on their team...They will be in a lot of games and might win a couple, but i dont see them beating Virigina....The Cavaliers will not surprise anyone this years after their stellar play last year....That being said, the Wahoos will finish no better than 4th in the ACC IMO...Schaub is an excellent QB but they still have problems on their running game....without that they will not get past the hump this year for the ACC title! Virigina was 2nd to last in total defense in 2002 and Groh's system has flaws in it....they have great players but they have to prove that they are worthy!!

I am not playing this game because both Duke and UVA has questions i need to see to be answered. UVA should and will probably win this game but i will not touch this many points...IF i had to choose i would go with the Devils and take the points! Duke can keep ANY team close, they just have to learn how to seal the wins!!

 

[ajoytoy]

Georgia (-2.5) @ Clemson:

First and foremost, there is a good thread already here that you should check for the most current info:http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=106682


When i first saw this line i was surprised...This is Georgia we are talking bout here! And the Tigers....they are OK, but this i Clemson we are talking bout!!

Im not even gonna talk bout all the potential problems that the Dogs will be bringing into this opening game of the year.

I see improvement in the Tigers for this year, but they will have to improve there offense ALOT if they want to be competitive in the ACC and especially in this first game against a very good UGA team! The offense looks solid for the Tigers and they will have to step up and score points this year if they want a CHANCE of winning games this year...The Defense returns only 4 players and they will have to step up IMMEDIATELY! UGA is not a team to play with....still at a loss for this line and will go with the better gifted players and team here and take the ML at (-134)

This is 2 unit play for me!!
I STILL think Georgia wins this game, and probably more than a FG, but i will put any doubt out of it and take the ML

 

[ajoytoy]

Nortwestern (-6) @ Kansas:

I really look for NW to have a good year this year! They have a solid offense and their defense should be ALOT better this year after gaining some experience! This team should score a lot of points both on O and D this year!

Kansas looks like a decent team this year, but their problems start at the O-line and continue thru to the special teams....they will win more than 2 games this year, but not against the Wildcats!

I'm taking NW and hoping they win by a TD or more!

NW (-6)

Indiana @ UConn (-5.5):

The Hooisers have a lot of questions and they wont have an easy time to start the year of! Both the O and D line seem to be where the questions will arise this year! It's gonna be a long year for the Hooisers in FB!

UConn finished the year off last year with 4 consecutive victories!! They have a great offensive tandem in QB Orlovsky and RB Caulley and a new WR in Fogarty that has high hopes! The D ranked 5 in the nation in pass defense and 19th in TOTAL D last year! can thing only get better for the D and UConn:shrug: ? I think so!

Taking UConn (-5.5)
the only thing i am scared about is that it seems everyone is one them....lets hope we are all right!!

 

[countinguy]

GL Luck Toy!!

 

[ajoytoy]

FSU (-16.5) @ UNC:

lets talk bout the Tarheels first:
First and foremost, they had a great offseason with their recruiting of players....they COULD be the Virginia of last year! Probably will not, but would not be shocked to see them finish 5th in the ACC!! Dont get me wrong, they have a really tough first 5 games of the year, but i think they could win at least one of em ( as long as it isnt against NCSU )....Durant is a GOOD QB and there offense can be explosive at times....they could score 21 points against any team in the Nation (maybe not against Oklahoma, but they dont play them)....The problem with UNC is that there Defense will probably allow 24 or more points in the same games!! The good thing is that they have experience returning in 8 starter for the defense....they just need to find some good impact players that will step up this year! It is gonna be a LONG season for UNC, but you never know who will step up this year!!

FSU is FSU....its a simple as that....they have had a strangle-hold on the ACC since they entered 10 years ago....but the problem is that teams like NCSU, MD and UVA have been getting better and better each year....they hvae finally come to the turning point this year and will be out to prove it not only in this first game against UNC but against every and anybody! Dont get me wrong, i dont like the Seminoles, but you have to respect the talent that they have...With 15 returning starters coming back (11 on D!! ), they will have a huge advantage in many games this year...Rix will have to prove he is a great QB like all the old QB's of FSU's past....the only weakness seems to be in thier O-Line were they have to replace 4 spots...if they can get good fillers there, then WATCH OUT EVERYONE....The Defense has a lot to prove to the critics after last year, but any team in the Nation would love to have the chance with the quality of players that they have at FSU!!

I am NOT playing this game, but i would go with FSU here and eat the 16.5 points....they should win by 3 td's....

i personally dont normally take games over 14.5 or higher!! it will probably change later on this year, but to start the season i am sticking to my old rule!

 

[ajoytoy]

recap of what i am taking:
Maryland ML (-320)
Akron (-11)
Toledo (-1)
Georgia ML (-134) 2 Unit Play
UConn (-5.5)
NW (-6)


that will probably be it for this weekend, but will have a picks up later on the Sunday and 2 Monday games

 

[AR182]

ajoytoy,

nice writeups on your games.

fwiw,

i will be playing clemson+ points & n.ill.+points. i will have writeups first chance i get.

anyway, good luck on your plays--have always enjoyed reading your posts in the general discussion forum & look forward to your opinions in the football forums.


btw, i also am looking at w.f. vs. bc

 

[ajoytoy]

forgot bout this one!!

Georgia Tech @ BYU (-3.5):

The biggest question for the Yellow Jackets will be how ready is Hollings after tearing his ACL and LM last year....there is a QB battle also that will be quite interesting to track....The bright spot of GT is thier defense...they return 7 starters and will be better than last year IF the scondary can find good replacements! GT will have a tough challenge this year to be even in the upper level of the ACC!!

The Cougars of BYU have quality leadership in their 16 returning starters (10 on the D)....they return sophmore QB Berry and RB Whalen....these 2 alone will be more than enough to handle for the Jackets....

i am not playing this game, but would lean to the Cougars and the Home field advantage....which ever defense steps up will determine this game....

 

[mjbarley]

I only have an opinion about one of the games you've listed above, and I'm gonna have to go against you. I like UNLV here against Toledo. You're correct that UNLV does have new starting corners, but Toledo is a running team. They are pretty weak at throwing the ball, so I don't think they can exploit UNLV's defensive weakness. On the other side, UNLV should have a very good passing game, which is something that Toledo is not built to defend, so UNLV should have some offensive success. UNLV QB is inexperienced, but he did play some last year, so it's not like he's totally untested. Also, it is a home game for them, so it's easier for a young QB at home.

Other games that I like this week:

Wisconsin - 3 (shopping for 2.5). They're extremely solid up front on both sides of the ball. W Va only returns 2 O-Line, so Wisconsin should be able to shut down their offense somewhat, and they really should be able to pound the ball against the smaller Mountaineer defense. They've got a veteran team who shouldn't be rattled about playing on the road, especially since the game is early and W Va hasn't started school yet, so the student body shouldn't be there in force. Wisconsin 28-17

TCU - 6.5. They'll put up tons of points against a very weak Tulane defense. The only question is if they can shut down JP Losman and the high powered Tulane offense. I think they can. TCU did lose some defensive talent to graduation, but the new players should be able to step right in and we won't see much of a drop off. TCU should be able to generate pressure on the QB and force him into some mistakes. I'd love to play the over here as well. TCU 45-24.

Va Tech - 19. They're just loaded this year, and I think UCF is actually overrated based on past experience. They do have a fantastic QB, but they've got a new O-Line, and new special teams players (yikes!). I'm looking for 2 scores for Va Tech directly attributable to the special teams and defense. Also, opening at home, with a veteran O-Line, Jones should have all kinds of running room. They'd love for him to get off to a fast start after the injuries last year. I'll probably play the first half at -10 or so as well. Va Tech 45-10

Other leans
SMU +24
Mia-OH + 11
S Miss + 3.5
Rice + 5
Fresno St + 20
Col St - 1

 

[mjbarley]

I agree with you about BYU. I'm not ready to pull the trigger on the side, but I'm guessing they'll put up a total, and I'd love to play the under. Both of these teams seem defensively solid, with questions on offense. I think BYU is in much better shape than GT (with all their injuries, suspensions, etc), and opening at home on a Thursday night should be big for them. I think I've seen a total of 50, and as soon as one of my books posts it, I'll be all over it. BYU 20-13

 

[ajoytoy]

ajoytoy,

nice writeups on your games.

fwiw,

i will be playing clemson+ points & n.ill.+points. i will have writeups first chance i get.

anyway, good luck on your plays--have always enjoyed reading your posts in the general discussion forum & look forward to your opinions in the football forums.


btw, i also am looking at w.f. vs. bc

first and foremost thx for the kind words

gl on the points in both games and eagerly await your views on the games AR!

i am a bit scared bout the UGA/Clemson game, but i am going on a gut call here...think the better team wins here!!??:shrug:


n. ill is a scrappy team and could win this one!! sure hope they dont though!

 

[ajoytoy]

I agree with you about BYU. I'm not ready to pull the trigger on the side, but I'm guessing they'll put up a total, and I'd love to play the under. Both of these teams seem defensively solid, with questions on offense. I think BYU is in much better shape than GT (with all their injuries, suspensions, etc), and opening at home on a Thursday night should be big for them. I think I've seen a total of 50, and as soon as one of my books posts it, I'll be all over it. BYU 20-13

gl on the unlv pick mjb!
byu under could be tempting, but i personally dont play many totals


nice write-ups bout wisconsin, va tech and tcu!

i actually like the TCU play, but dont know enough to put my $$ on em!! same goes for the badgers!!

like i said earlier, i dont trust the high spreads early on in the season, so VT wouldn't be a play for me anyway....later in the year that rationale will probably change for me though!!


gl in all your plays and leans bud!!


toy

 

[mw]

Mjbarley, that under looked good to me too, but GT has had a lot of losses on the DL.

 

[mjbarley]

Even with the problems of GT defensive line, BYU doesn't have it all together on offense yet. Their offensive line has some issues and I'm really looking for a defensive struggle.

But that's the problem with betting these first games of the year. I'm only going off what I've read about the off-season, and what's expected. When they actually show up to play, things could be much different, but I think more than 7 TDs from these 2 squads is a bit much to ask.

Which leads me into a little more discussion of why I like Va Tech this week. I'm only going off of what I've read based on the scouting reports of these teams. I typically don't like playing big spreads, but I think now is the time where Va Tech will have the most value, and here's why:

1. I think CF is a little overrated, based on past year's performance, and the fact that they have a great QB. They remind me of Louisville last year, when they had Heisman candidate Ragone, playing behind a raw O-Line. He got killed. He was running for his life all year, especially early, and they underachieved. This should be a similar situation, and the Va Tech defense should be all over him and get some points here.

2. RB Jones. He is a stud, but got injured last year and let Suggs carry the load. They'll want to get him going, and make sure he gets his stats (he'll rush for at least 150 yds and 2TDs).

3. QB Randall. They want to make sure to build up his confidence, and when Jones isn't running, Randall will be throwing. He'll get his to ensure that he's off to a good start.

4. Va Tech backups - when they get a big lead, and pull Randall, in comes Marcus Vick. Do you think he'll be in there to just hand off the ball???

 

[NY Reb]

Nice write-ups, Toy. I know how much time and energy it takes to do something like that, so I appreciate it. I think you've made some sharp selections.

Just one tiny question, isn't Hollings academically ineligible at GT, along with 9 others? I didn't realize there was any possibility that he might play.

 

[bjfinste]

Hollings went pro and was taken by Houston in the NFL supplemental draft.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good luck man....

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

GL bro!