8/28-9/01 plays!
- Thread starter ajoytoy
- Start date
Wisconsin (-3) @ West Virginia:
WVU: Versatile QB Marshall will be the main reason for the success this year for the Moutaineers. The loss of Cobourne wil hurt, but they feel confident in their RB's to fill the void that this sensational RB left behind. Only time will tell if that will be true or not. The O-Line seems relatively sound, but the Center position is still a question mark for them.....The biggest problem with WV will be their D-Line! With only 4 returning startes. this year will be a quick learning process for thier Defense.
Wisconsin: Bollinger has left and Sorsi has to fill his void quickly. He is unproven in his past starts (0-5), but has put up some solid stats while in the games. The offense will be decided on how well WR Evans comes back form his knee injury from last year. If he is healthy and back to form, then WATCH OUT!!......The Defense is an outstanding group with 8 returning starters to a solid team! Leonard, who led the NATION last year with 11 picks, is back and should be hungry for a lost more havoc this year!
I will put my backing on the Badgers in this game, but will play it safe once again and go with the ML at (-141)!!
WVU: Versatile QB Marshall will be the main reason for the success this year for the Moutaineers. The loss of Cobourne wil hurt, but they feel confident in their RB's to fill the void that this sensational RB left behind. Only time will tell if that will be true or not. The O-Line seems relatively sound, but the Center position is still a question mark for them.....The biggest problem with WV will be their D-Line! With only 4 returning startes. this year will be a quick learning process for thier Defense.
Wisconsin: Bollinger has left and Sorsi has to fill his void quickly. He is unproven in his past starts (0-5), but has put up some solid stats while in the games. The offense will be decided on how well WR Evans comes back form his knee injury from last year. If he is healthy and back to form, then WATCH OUT!!......The Defense is an outstanding group with 8 returning starters to a solid team! Leonard, who led the NATION last year with 11 picks, is back and should be hungry for a lost more havoc this year!
I will put my backing on the Badgers in this game, but will play it safe once again and go with the ML at (-141)!!
Oregon (-3.5) @ Miss St.:
Oregon: The main problems for the Ducks this year will be the QB and CB slots. EVERYTHING else seems to be covered nicely by good to great players. They will be helped with having all 5 O-line starters returning....The Defense seems sound, but will have to prove itself in the secondary. They were one of the worst teams against the pass last year! This will have to change quickly if they want any chance of big success this year.
MSU:
The Good: There are some good recievers to throw the ball too for the Bulldogs.
The Bad: QB York must get past his past problems and lead this team.
The UGLY: MSU finished 11th in the SEC last year with only a 120 yd per game production! If they do not improve that, then they are going to continue to be in the SEC basement all this year!
D: The D looks pretty good with 7 returning starters, but MUST fill the LB spot that sensational LB Haggan left behind! Also an area of concern will be at the safety position.
The new Neon jerseys for the Ducks will be on display in the dirty south for this game. I think they will be blurs to the Dogs D and will lean to the Ducks for the W here. Being safe one more time as i will go with the ML at (-162)!!
Oregon: The main problems for the Ducks this year will be the QB and CB slots. EVERYTHING else seems to be covered nicely by good to great players. They will be helped with having all 5 O-line starters returning....The Defense seems sound, but will have to prove itself in the secondary. They were one of the worst teams against the pass last year! This will have to change quickly if they want any chance of big success this year.
MSU:
The Good: There are some good recievers to throw the ball too for the Bulldogs.
The Bad: QB York must get past his past problems and lead this team.
The UGLY: MSU finished 11th in the SEC last year with only a 120 yd per game production! If they do not improve that, then they are going to continue to be in the SEC basement all this year!
D: The D looks pretty good with 7 returning starters, but MUST fill the LB spot that sensational LB Haggan left behind! Also an area of concern will be at the safety position.
The new Neon jerseys for the Ducks will be on display in the dirty south for this game. I think they will be blurs to the Dogs D and will lean to the Ducks for the W here. Being safe one more time as i will go with the ML at (-162)!!
Missouri (-3.5) VS Illinois @ St. Louis
Missouri:
O: 2 words: Brad Smith!!! He is the total package and will shine once again this year as he gets more national attention. What is scary is that they have a great RB in Abron and a good recieving crew led by Outlaw. The Tigers have 9 returning starters for the O this year! They will score a lot of points this year
D: The defense will be the major concern (as it was last year) and will need to be fixed as quickly as possible! They ranked 113th in the Nation in pass difference allowing 60% pass completion and 19 TD passes:nono:. If the D can get better, then the Tigers can go for a major title this year!
Illinois:
O: The biggest concern for the Fighting Illini is that they lost their 4 best WR's last year!!
. 3 guys are also vying for the RB Harris's opening spot. THe O-line looks relatively solid which gives a bit of relief and help to QB Beutjer.
D:
The Good: The Bulldogs returns 8 starters that COULD be the best defense in the Big Ten this year!
The Bad: The secondary needs rebuilding after losing 2 great players in Wilson and Hall last year.
The Ugly: The D gave up an average of 30 points or MORE in its first 5 of 7 games last year. That will need to be fixed as soon as possible if they want any chance of bowl hopes this year!!
Smith will open the season with win at the neutral site this year (almost a home game if you consider it is in Missouri). Still playing it safe with taking the ML at (-158), but it will be a 2 unit play !
Missouri:
O: 2 words: Brad Smith!!! He is the total package and will shine once again this year as he gets more national attention. What is scary is that they have a great RB in Abron and a good recieving crew led by Outlaw. The Tigers have 9 returning starters for the O this year! They will score a lot of points this year
D: The defense will be the major concern (as it was last year) and will need to be fixed as quickly as possible! They ranked 113th in the Nation in pass difference allowing 60% pass completion and 19 TD passes:nono:. If the D can get better, then the Tigers can go for a major title this year!
Illinois:
O: The biggest concern for the Fighting Illini is that they lost their 4 best WR's last year!!
. 3 guys are also vying for the RB Harris's opening spot. THe O-line looks relatively solid which gives a bit of relief and help to QB Beutjer.D:
The Good: The Bulldogs returns 8 starters that COULD be the best defense in the Big Ten this year!
The Bad: The secondary needs rebuilding after losing 2 great players in Wilson and Hall last year.
The Ugly: The D gave up an average of 30 points or MORE in its first 5 of 7 games last year. That will need to be fixed as soon as possible if they want any chance of bowl hopes this year!!
Smith will open the season with win at the neutral site this year (almost a home game if you consider it is in Missouri). Still playing it safe with taking the ML at (-158), but it will be a 2 unit play !
Sunday's Game
Louisville @ Kentucky (-5.5):
Louisville:
O: New Coach Petrino will start his season off with a new QB, a good RB in Shelton and a superb TE in Ghent (but he does come back from a knee injury)!! The games could be decided on how well the core of recievers play this year for the Cardinals.
D: This is where the problems start and end for Louisville!!! They have soem good players here, but need to learn quickly if they want to be successful....they need help everywhere on D!
Kentucky:
O: UK also brings in a new coach in Brooks. But at least he inherits a great offense lead by bruising QB Lorenzen (he took 20 pounds off his 6' 4" frame!). The backup QB, Boyd, is so good that he is put in to play RB and WR at times!!
D: The LB's seem to be the only problem that needs to be addressed for the Wildcats, but they only return 4 starters. They should be solid all around with a great coaching staff and with Lorenzen leading them
Since this is the only Sunday game, there will many, many people playing this game...My view is to take the points as i think UK wins by 10 or more....will make a decision saturday night, but as of right now, it is a pass!!:shrug:
Louisville @ Kentucky (-5.5):
Louisville:
O: New Coach Petrino will start his season off with a new QB, a good RB in Shelton and a superb TE in Ghent (but he does come back from a knee injury)!! The games could be decided on how well the core of recievers play this year for the Cardinals.
D: This is where the problems start and end for Louisville!!!
They have soem good players here, but need to learn quickly if they want to be successful....they need help everywhere on D!Kentucky:
O: UK also brings in a new coach in Brooks. But at least he inherits a great offense lead by bruising QB Lorenzen (he took 20 pounds off his 6' 4" frame!
). The backup QB, Boyd, is so good that he is put in to play RB and WR at times!! D: The LB's seem to be the only problem that needs to be addressed for the Wildcats, but they only return 4 starters. They should be solid all around with a great coaching staff and with Lorenzen leading them
Since this is the only Sunday game, there will many, many people playing this game...My view is to take the points as i think UK wins by 10 or more....will make a decision saturday night, but as of right now, it is a pass!!:shrug:
Monday's Game 1
ECU @ Cincinnati (-8)
ECU:
O: New coach Thimpson leads ECU into new direction this year. The Offense has experience all around with a good ground game. The major question is how the passing game will turn out this year with new coach.
D: The Defense will be quite different this year as Thompson plans to bring in a new system!??:shrug: There will be an "organized chaos" in the D to try an cover for their problems in the secondary!!
Cincinnati:
O: The Bearcats have a proven QB in Guidugli as he returns to lead them. The WR corps is relatively new, but with a proven RB, they should get some good looks quickly!
D: The Defense lost a huge leader in Peek, and will have to step up quickly without him. The secondary is solid and will be comfortable as long as the Offense can score some points.
Unfortunately we get a lot of coverage in Raleigh bout the Pirates..I Never trust this team!!:nono: For or against!! Cincy SHOULD win this game and should cover the points, but i am staying away till i can see more of both teams!!
ECU @ Cincinnati (-8)
ECU:
O: New coach Thimpson leads ECU into new direction this year. The Offense has experience all around with a good ground game. The major question is how the passing game will turn out this year with new coach.
D: The Defense will be quite different this year as Thompson plans to bring in a new system!??:shrug: There will be an "organized chaos" in the D to try an cover for their problems in the secondary!!
Cincinnati:
O: The Bearcats have a proven QB in Guidugli as he returns to lead them. The WR corps is relatively new, but with a proven RB, they should get some good looks quickly!
D: The Defense lost a huge leader in Peek, and will have to step up quickly without him. The secondary is solid and will be comfortable as long as the Offense can score some points.
Unfortunately we get a lot of coverage in Raleigh bout the Pirates..I Never trust this team!!:nono: For or against!! Cincy SHOULD win this game and should cover the points, but i am staying away till i can see more of both teams!!
Monday's Game 2
TCU (-6.5) @ Tulane:
TCU:
O: The Offense looks great even though they return only 3 starters from last year!! 2 great RB's, a good QB and lethal WR compliment a good O-Line. This will shape into a VERY explosive offense for the Horned Frogs!
D: This Defense allowed only 1.98 yards/game last year against the run! They were the only team under 2 yd/rush!! They led the Nation with 65 rush yards per game!! So it is pretty easy to see that the major problem in the D will be at the secondary position. TCU looks prime to defend their C-USA crown this year, anything else will be a disappoinment in their eyes!
Tulane:
O: The Green Wave return 9 starters from last year highlighted with sensational RB Moore who could get some National attention! The QB, Losman, seems capable and looks like a proto-typical NFL type QB (6'3" 215 lbs.). WR Williams returns from his injury last year and could be the best WR in the conference when the season ends!
D: The Defense seems to be what will make or break Tulane this year with only 2 returing starters!!! There is a lot of hope and promise here, but no proven experience!
This game will be very good with a great matchup of a great Tulane Offense versus a great TCU Defense. Whichever group wins this battle will win the game. I think in the long run the Tulane D will break and TCU will win this game. Will it be by a TD? Maybe. But i am playing it safe and making my Monday pick the ML for TCU at (-240)!!
TCU (-6.5) @ Tulane:
TCU:
O: The Offense looks great even though they return only 3 starters from last year!! 2 great RB's, a good QB and lethal WR compliment a good O-Line. This will shape into a VERY explosive offense for the Horned Frogs!
D: This Defense allowed only 1.98 yards/game last year against the run! They were the only team under 2 yd/rush!!
They led the Nation with 65 rush yards per game!! So it is pretty easy to see that the major problem in the D will be at the secondary position. TCU looks prime to defend their C-USA crown this year, anything else will be a disappoinment in their eyes!Tulane:
O: The Green Wave return 9 starters from last year highlighted with sensational RB Moore who could get some National attention! The QB, Losman, seems capable and looks like a proto-typical NFL type QB (6'3" 215 lbs.). WR Williams returns from his injury last year and could be the best WR in the conference when the season ends!
D: The Defense seems to be what will make or break Tulane this year with only 2 returing starters!!! There is a lot of hope and promise here, but no proven experience!
This game will be very good with a great matchup of a great Tulane Offense versus a great TCU Defense. Whichever group wins this battle will win the game. I think in the long run the Tulane D will break and TCU will win this game. Will it be by a TD? Maybe. But i am playing it safe and making my Monday pick the ML for TCU at (-240)!!
i promise tthere will no more games....my mind needs a break anyway!
final recap of games i am going with:
Maryland ML (-320)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Akron (-11)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Toledo (-1)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Gorgia ML (-134) 2 Unit Play>>>>>>>>>>>>W
UConn (-5.5) >>>>>>>>>>>>W
NW (-6) >>>>>>>>>>>>W
Wisconsin (-141)>>>>>>>>>W
Oregon (-162)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>W
Missouri (-158) 2 Unit Play>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>W
TCU (-240)>>>>>>>>>>>W(this is the reason why i take some ML's!)
please bare in mind that these are my leans....hopefully the majority of these will be the right way, but the season is only starting....cant really gauge a team until you seem them with the new players in the mix!!
as always, the best of luck to you in your plays!
will be at the NCSU/WCU game to see how good we really are this year!!
GO PACK!!
and as i said before, please correct ANYTHING if i have made a mistake....offer any info that you have and argue with me if you just plain out disagree with the picks i have made....you can see i would rather put more up with a ML than risk losing by a point or less....i truly think in the long run, you worry less that way...has worked for in the past and i will continue with this for the future!!
gl all!
toy
final recap of games i am going with:
Maryland ML (-320)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Akron (-11)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Toledo (-1)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>L
Gorgia ML (-134) 2 Unit Play>>>>>>>>>>>>W
UConn (-5.5) >>>>>>>>>>>>W
NW (-6) >>>>>>>>>>>>W
Wisconsin (-141)>>>>>>>>>W
Oregon (-162)>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>W
Missouri (-158) 2 Unit Play>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>W
TCU (-240)>>>>>>>>>>>W(this is the reason why i take some ML's!)
please bare in mind that these are my leans....hopefully the majority of these will be the right way, but the season is only starting....cant really gauge a team until you seem them with the new players in the mix!!
as always, the best of luck to you in your plays!
will be at the NCSU/WCU game to see how good we really are this year!!
GO PACK!!
and as i said before, please correct ANYTHING if i have made a mistake....offer any info that you have and argue with me if you just plain out disagree with the picks i have made....you can see i would rather put more up with a ML than risk losing by a point or less....i truly think in the long run, you worry less that way...has worked for in the past and i will continue with this for the future!!
gl all!
toy
Last edited:
toy,
here's my feedback on your games. I'll reveal a little of my handicapping philosophy, and you'll see where we disagree. If I ever bet MLs, I either bet the dog, or not at all. I personally think the juice you lay for a team just winning outright is way too high, and not worth the risk.
For instance, look at your 2 unit plays. In one game, I personally think Clemson wins the game outright because Death valley is a tough place to play, especially with a brand new O-Line. I think Georgia gets rattled. On the other side, if Georgia does handle the pressure and plays well, then they'll easily cover the 2.5 points, so laying the -134 to me is too high. In the other game, Missouri should be able to score tons of points against Illinois, but Illinois returns an offense that could easily match them point for point (if any WRs step up - I'll be on the over in this game). A turnover here or there, and I think either team wins, so again, not worth the -158. (You'll find that I'm really adverse to laying long odds. In fact, I tend to use 2 books as much as possible because the odds I lay are either -107 or -105, and based on the amount of plays in a season, it will same me 5-6 units overall). Enough of my rambling, here's my feedback on your picks:
Toledo - I'll be on UNLV for this one (one of very few) for reasons listed in a post above
TCU - the one ML play I like (even though I think they cover the 6.5). Tulane has enough offensive firepower that they could get the backdoor cover, even though there's no way they win this game
Wisconsin - This is my best play of the week, even laying the 3 points. If they play up to expectations, the line, let alone them winning, is never in doubt. I don't think there's a way that they only win this by one or two points. They could lose outright if they turn it over or play uninspired, but I doubt it.
Oregon should win, but again, -162 is too much to lay. MSU at home, against a young Oregon team, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if MSU wins outright
Maryland - 320. Too high of a price, especially since they've got Florida St on deck and might be looking ahead, whereas N Ill is treating this like the biggest thing to hit DeKalb since they opened up that new WalMart!
I have no real opinion on Akron, UConn, or NW, other than it seems to me like you're betting against really crappy teams rather than betting on good teams.
I truly hope that you hit all your ML bets (I hope you hit all your bets except Toledo ), but feel that you're taking a little too much risk for not enough reward.
good luck.
mj
here's my feedback on your games. I'll reveal a little of my handicapping philosophy, and you'll see where we disagree. If I ever bet MLs, I either bet the dog, or not at all. I personally think the juice you lay for a team just winning outright is way too high, and not worth the risk.
For instance, look at your 2 unit plays. In one game, I personally think Clemson wins the game outright because Death valley is a tough place to play, especially with a brand new O-Line. I think Georgia gets rattled. On the other side, if Georgia does handle the pressure and plays well, then they'll easily cover the 2.5 points, so laying the -134 to me is too high. In the other game, Missouri should be able to score tons of points against Illinois, but Illinois returns an offense that could easily match them point for point (if any WRs step up - I'll be on the over in this game). A turnover here or there, and I think either team wins, so again, not worth the -158. (You'll find that I'm really adverse to laying long odds. In fact, I tend to use 2 books as much as possible because the odds I lay are either -107 or -105, and based on the amount of plays in a season, it will same me 5-6 units overall). Enough of my rambling, here's my feedback on your picks:
Toledo - I'll be on UNLV for this one (one of very few) for reasons listed in a post above
TCU - the one ML play I like (even though I think they cover the 6.5). Tulane has enough offensive firepower that they could get the backdoor cover, even though there's no way they win this game
Wisconsin - This is my best play of the week, even laying the 3 points. If they play up to expectations, the line, let alone them winning, is never in doubt. I don't think there's a way that they only win this by one or two points. They could lose outright if they turn it over or play uninspired, but I doubt it.
Oregon should win, but again, -162 is too much to lay. MSU at home, against a young Oregon team, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if MSU wins outright
Maryland - 320. Too high of a price, especially since they've got Florida St on deck and might be looking ahead, whereas N Ill is treating this like the biggest thing to hit DeKalb since they opened up that new WalMart!
I have no real opinion on Akron, UConn, or NW, other than it seems to me like you're betting against really crappy teams rather than betting on good teams.
I truly hope that you hit all your ML bets (I hope you hit all your bets except Toledo
), but feel that you're taking a little too much risk for not enough reward.good luck.
mj
great insight MJ! thank you very much for replying...i am just going with what has worked for me in the past...i normally do NOT take ML's at the -300 range, but am wary of N. Ill, but i still think MD wins this game...most of the time the ML limit is around 250 or so...different philosophy than you, but that is what makes this forum so great...we can talk about it and explain our views and rationale on the plays!!mjbarley said:toy,
here's my feedback on your games. I'll reveal a little of my handicapping philosophy, and you'll see where we disagree. If I ever bet MLs, I either bet the dog, or not at all. I personally think the juice you lay for a team just winning outright is way too high, and not worth the risk.
For instance, look at your 2 unit plays. In one game, I personally think Clemson wins the game outright because Death valley is a tough place to play, especially with a brand new O-Line. I think Georgia gets rattled. On the other side, if Georgia does handle the pressure and plays well, then they'll easily cover the 2.5 points, so laying the -134 to me is too high. In the other game, Missouri should be able to score tons of points against Illinois, but Illinois returns an offense that could easily match them point for point (if any WRs step up - I'll be on the over in this game). A turnover here or there, and I think either team wins, so again, not worth the -158. (You'll find that I'm really adverse to laying long odds. In fact, I tend to use 2 books as much as possible because the odds I lay are either -107 or -105, and based on the amount of plays in a season, it will same me 5-6 units overall). Enough of my rambling, here's my feedback on your picks:
Toledo - I'll be on UNLV for this one (one of very few) for reasons listed in a post above
TCU - the one ML play I like (even though I think they cover the 6.5). Tulane has enough offensive firepower that they could get the backdoor cover, even though there's no way they win this game
Wisconsin - This is my best play of the week, even laying the 3 points. If they play up to expectations, the line, let alone them winning, is never in doubt. I don't think there's a way that they only win this by one or two points. They could lose outright if they turn it over or play uninspired, but I doubt it.
Oregon should win, but again, -162 is too much to lay. MSU at home, against a young Oregon team, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if MSU wins outright
Maryland - 320. Too high of a price, especially since they've got Florida St on deck and might be looking ahead, whereas N Ill is treating this like the biggest thing to hit DeKalb since they opened up that new WalMart!
I have no real opinion on Akron, UConn, or NW, other than it seems to me like you're betting against really crappy teams rather than betting on good teams.
I truly hope that you hit all your ML bets (I hope you hit all your bets except Toledo
good luck.
mj
i sure hope i hit them too...i guess we will just have to wait and see how the week ends up!
toy
Last edited:
Thx TJ and everyone else for the wishes!!TJBELL said:
will be on only sporaticly over this labor day weekend, but wanted to also wish everyone a great beginning to the season and a safe holiday weekend!!
GL this year toy
and if you head out to any wolfpack games, make sure to take pics of the cheerleaders, hell even some of the pretty fans!!
and if you head out to any wolfpack games, make sure to take pics of the cheerleaders, hell even some of the pretty fans!!
Toy, hope you and the Wolfpack have great seasons. How about NC State and Purdue for the National Championship? WOW that would be great.
Forgot to add ,I'm going to kick your :moon: in golf this week. Have a good weekend.
Forgot to add ,I'm going to kick your :moon: in golf this week. Have a good weekend.
