12/16 Bowls

[Smitty]

That time of year already. Hopefully we can turn a nice profit again. The plan is to start slow, because I don't have a great feel for a lot of these teams.

One thing I've learned the last couple years is that it can be difficult to get accurate info re: who is sitting out the bowl games. So if you have info that contradicts what I write, please don't hesitate to let me know.

Myrtle Beach

Right off the rip, we have a game that looks like it will be greatly influenced by who isn't playing. Ohio has had 5 key players hit the portal - QB Rourke, top 2 RBs, leading receiver, and a LB who is their 2nd-leading tackler. Georgia Southern is pretty much at full strength. And the line has moved accordingly, opening at Ohio -1.5 and settling in at Ga So -3.5.

Luckily for Ohio, their strength is their defense. They only gave up 15 points/game. They face a Ga So offense led by Tulsa transfer Davis Brin. He has been... meh. Completed 65% of his passes, but only averaged 6.7 yds/att. He also threw 22 TDs and 16 INTs. That ain't good. Away from home, it's even worse - 9 TDs and 11 INTs. Another interesting detail re: the Ga So offense... while their passing attack is... meh, their top two RBs combine for 5.7 yds/rush. Pretty good. But they only ran the ball 40% of their offensive snaps. This looks like an offense that doesn't play to its strengths.

The Ohio defense is strong against both the run and the pass. They allow 6.12 yards/pass att (9th in the country) and 3.34 yds/rush (18th). Granted, those numbers came mostly against MAC competition BUT... they held Iowa St to a season-low 7 points and 271 yards of offense. And the 1 TD was with 4 minutes left, when Ohio had a 10-point lead. So they shut out a Big12 offense for 56 minutes and then went to their "prevent defense." Also, Ohio has picked off 12 passes this year, which is 22nd in the country. Given Brin's propensity for throwin' 'em this year, we may see a couple more Saturday.

The other side of the ball is the big question mark. Can Ohio move the ball? Not only is Rourke gone, but Harris, the 2nd stringer, is out with an injury. But I kinda like Navarro, who will start. He's a senior with VERY little experience, so I may come to regret that. He's only thrown 24 passes across 3 years with 2 teams. But he also has 26 carries for 157 yards (6.0 yds/carry). This year, he has 10 carries for 107 yards. He's a good athlete who is going to run the ball a lot on Saturday. In fact, with the opt-outs... he comes into this game as Ohio's leading rusher. Ga So gives up 4.57 yards/rush, which is 90th in the country. And they give up 7.71 yards/pass att, which is 92nd. Their defense is bad enough to maybe make Ohio look semi-competent.

Quick note on the kickers... both are fairly consistent inside 40 yards. But 40+... the Ga So kicker is 6/10, and the Ohio kicker is 1/7. So definite advantage to Ga So.

Alright, first bowl game of the year... I started this analysis fully expecting that I'd be betting the Eagles. I often bet on teams that come into the bowl game on a losing streak, because there is some value. But that value is gone due to the opt-outs from Ohio. So, god help me, I'm betting on a 3rd string qb. Who runs a lot. If he gets hurt... I'm fucked.

Ohio (+3.5) 4.6 to win 4
Ohio 1H (+2.5) 2 units
Ohio (ML) 2 to win 2.9
Ga So TT under 25.5 4.2 to win 4
Ga So 1H TT under 13.5 2.6 to win 2. Ohio has only given up more than 23 points once all year.

 

[rob22278]

Great write up Smitty
Good luck this bowl season
Cheers

 

[jamulboy]

Thanks for this, Smitty.

 

[Smitty]

thank you, gentlemen. hopefully we can hit some winners.

New Orleans

first off, almost no impact from the transfer portal. ULL is missing Gant, who had 64 tackles and 6 sacks. but jax st can't throw the ball, so not a huge factor.

Jax St is coached by DickRod, so I'm predisposed to bet on ULL. But we'll see how this goes.

Ok, let's start with when Jax St has the ball. Webb has completed exactly 50% of his passes, with 5 TDs and 6 INTs. He averaged 6.6 yds/att, by far a career low for the senior. That might be part of the reason why the Gamecocks run the ball 65% of the time. RB Malik Jackson had a great year, averaging 6.5 yds/carry. ULL is decent against the run, allowing 3.85 yds/carry, which is 40th in the country.

Other side of the ball.... for the 2nd straight game, we have a 3rd string qb starting. Woolridge started the season, but suffered a season-ending injury for the 2nd straight year. Then Chriss started the next 7, before suffering his own season-ending injury. In came Chandler Fields. Now Fields is no ordinary 3rd stringer. He's a junior in his 5th season, and he has now thrown 321 passes in his career. He's been very good, completing 71% of his passes for 7 TDs and 3 INTs, and averaging 7.8 yds/att. Oh, and he started their bowl game last year. I mean, he's gotta be one of the best 3rd string qbs in the country. He led them to 24 points at Troy, which matched the most points allowed by the Trojans since getting blown out at K St in early September. ULL can also run the ball. Their top 2 RBs average 5.7 & 5.8 yds/carry. Jax St's run defense has been outstanding, allowing 2.8 yds/carry. Their pass defense however... they give up 7.38 yards/att, which is 80th. And they didn't play a lot of dynamic pass offenses. Not that ULL really is either, but Fields could be looking at a big day. Jax St did pick off 16 passes, which is a concern.

The kicking game, which may play a big roll in the dome... Karajic (Jax St) is only 9 of 15 past 30 yards, including missing 2 under 40. Almendares (ULL) has only missed one fg all year.

Jax St is 1-4 against teams that made a bowl game. ULL is 1-5.

I normally like betting against teams that are basically home for the bowl game, as they may not be all that excited. But ULL is 5-1 in the NO Bowl.

Despite a lot of love for Jax St, the line has dropped to 2.5. I think it got up to 3.5. So crossing over that key number speaks volumes.

When the lines came out, I liked Jax St. But for the 2nd straight game, I've changed my mind. Going with the more balanced offense (although the Jax St run defense may make ULL more one-dimensional than they'd like) and the team that has consistently faced better competition all year.

ULL (ML) 5 to win 6
ULL TT over 28.5 3 units

 

[Smitty]

Update: I just saw that Karajic (Jax St kicker) is in the transfer portal. Assuming he's not playing... the only other place kicker on the roster is freshman Garrison Rippa, who has yet to kick in a game. So Jax St may really struggle in the kicking game.

Cure

Interesting transfer portal news... Aveon Smith, Miami's back-up qb who is now the starter... is gone. So it looks like their starting qb is sophomore Henry Hesson, who threw 5 passes against Robert Morris last year and none this year. App St will be missing a few offensive guys, but no one critical. "But wait, Smitty, isn't Noel (starting RB) one of the opt-outs?" Yes, he is. And that may be addition by subtraction. Noel had a decent year, averaging 4.8 yds/carry, but he tailed off at the end of the year. Freshman Kanye Roberts has been picking up carries, and he averaged 5.7/rush. Could be a breakout game for him.

Ok, so Miami had almost zero threat of a passing game with Smith, and it really can't get much worse with Hesson, but it might not get any better. At least Smith could beat you with his legs. App St has been very good against the pass, allowing 6.7 yds/att (34th in the country) and they are tied for 11th with 15 INTs. They are also 34th in the country with 33 sacks. Looks like it may be a tough first start for Hesson. Teams had success on the ground against App St, as they allowed 5.03 yds/carry, which is 113th in the country. Miami's ground game is... meh. Amos, who had 130 more carries than any other RB on the team, averages 5.1 yds/carry. Miami is going to need to establish a ground game, and App St is going to be able to put 14 guys in the box. Roughly.

The interesting match-up is going to be an App St offense that averages 35 pts/game against a very good Miami defense. That said, Miami's defensive numbers may REALLY be flattered by the MAC. They played 4 OOC games (Miami, UMass, Cincinnati, and Delaware St), and allowed 27.5 pts/game in those games. They gave up 11 pts/game against MAC opponents.

App St is the FAR better team and they'll be excited for a bowl game after missing out last year, despite going 6-6. If they get a lead, I just don't see Miami being able to mount a comeback.

App St (-6.5) 4.6 to win 4
Miami TT under (17.5) 5 to win 4

 

[Smitty]

New Mexico

WTF do you do with this game? There's no value left with NM St at this line. Fresno's season just went completely off the rails in the SJ St game. They entered that game 8-1, fresh off a win over Boise and earlier wins at Purdue and Arizona St. Keene got hurt against SJ St, but they were already down 28-10 in the 2nd quarter, so you can't blame that.

OOC, NM St beat Western Illinois and New Mexico and lost to UMass and Hawaii, before inexplicably dominating Auburn. In conference, they beat everyone not named "Liberty."

I respect Jerry Kill as a coach. Oddly, he was 0-5 as a HC in bowls until getting a win last year.

New Mexico St has never played in the New Mexico Bowl.

I'm not digging into the #s for this one, because I don't think they matter all that much. If Fresno finds some motivation and shows up ready to play (win one for Tedford!), they can easily win this game. If they are caught up in the distractions and have zero interest in the New Mexico Bowl, which is certainly very possible, they can lose this by 20+.

The smart thing to do is stay off this game. But where's the fun in that? I just can't lay points with this NM St team. So, screw it, I'll root for Fresno St to get it together and have some fun putting up points.

Fresno St (ML) 1 to win 1.5
Fresno St TT over (23.5) 1.2 to win 1

 

[JustFootball]

Smitty, thanks for all of these (and future) write ups. As many have noted, it's all about motivation and transfer portal. Just the fact that you are flagging player moves is incredibly helpful, not to mention your additional analysis. Cheers to a profitable bowl season!

 

[Smitty]

LA

Yeah, these games are getting almost impossible to handicap. UCLA lost a lot more players to the portal, but Boise lost their starting QB. True freshman CJ Tiller will start. He hasn't thrown a pass yet. Green wasn't great (completed 57% of his passes, 11 TDs & 9 INTs, but he did contribute 5.6 yds/carry on the ground. Tiller looks to bring the same skill set, but with even less pocket presence. Normally, that would be a huge factor against a UCLA team that had 41 sacks this year (6th in the country). But Latu (13 sacks) is sitting out to prepare for the draft. That leaves Gabriel Murphy as the top guy with 7 sacks, but now the offense will be able to focus more on him with Latu out.

The biggest question mark for this game.... will Boise be able to run the ball? After firing their coach mid-season, Boise got back to their roots - running the ball and defense. Jeantry had a great sophomore year, averaging 6.2 yds/carry. But UCLA is 2nd in the country, allowing 2.33 yds/carry. I don't know how Latu was against the run, but it's conceivable they will be even better without him, if he's a pass rush specialist. And with a true freshman qb, UCLA won't have to worry much about the pass.

Garbers is expected to start for UCLA. I'd say he definitely gives them their best chance. He reminds me of his brother, who played for Cal. Maybe not the most talented QB, but he's a winner. He is coming off a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the last game of the season. If he has to come out, next up is Collin Schlee. In limited time, he didn't show much throwing the ball, but he was the team's 3rd-leading rusher on only 35 carries, averaging 8.5 yds/rush. Another injury question mark is Carson Steele, the former MAC RB with flowing blond tresses. It's really quite magnificent when he runs in the California sunshine. Ok, at this point, I'm just seeing who is still paying attention. Anyway, Steele is one of those dudes who just runs super hard every time he touches the ball. But their other RB, Harden, is also a beast. Boise is ok against the run, allowing 3.87 yds/carry (44th in the country). Where Boise struggles is defending the pass. They give up 7.93 yds/att, which is 129 in the country.

Remember all the hype when Chip Kelly went to UCLA? Well, he is 34-34 overall and 26-26 in the PAC12. Whoooo!!

UCLA has really struggled in the kicking game. Lopez, the starter, was benched after missing 5 of 11. His replacement, Glessner, has been even worse, making 2 of 6 with a long of 35. Boise's kicker is rock solid, making 21 of 24 with a long of 56.

Apparently Chip Kelly's policy is that guys who are in the transfer portal can still play, as long as they haven't found a new team. And yet, not one UCLA player in the portal is expected to play tomorrow. I'm just guessing, but maybe that indicates a lack of enthusiasm for this game. Probably not helped by the fact that this is basically a home game.

After all that, I'm still on the fence. For years, Boise had a huge motivational edge against Power 5 teams in bowl games. I don't know if that's really the case any more. If UCLA shows up, they have the defense to shut down Boise's run game, which will spell big trouble for a freshman qb making his first start. And Garbers is good enough to take advantage of a very poor Boise pass defense. But if his shoulder isn't healed, UCLA also won't have much of a passing game.

These games aren't gonna get any easier as we move through Bowl Season, are they?

So I finally decided to go with the Bruins, and I just checked the line... during the time it took me to put this together, UCLA went from -4 to -5.5. Awesome.

UCLA (-5.5) 3 units
Boise TT under (20.5) 3 units

 

[Smitty]

Smitty, thanks for all of these (and future) write ups. As many have noted, it's all about motivation and transfer portal. Just the fact that you are flagging player moves is incredibly helpful, not to mention your additional analysis. Cheers to a profitable bowl season!

thanks! hopefully these help.

one factor that i can't emphasize enough though... i've learned the hard way that info on the opt-outs tends to be very unreliable. last year, i used a couple sources and there were still players who played even though they weren't expected to, and players who sat out who were expected to play. this year, i'm mostly relying on actionnetwork.com, which not only lists the players, but also how many snaps they took, which is very helpful. fingers crossed that they are providing good info.

 

[Smitty]

Independence

Motivational edge to the Cal Bears, playing in their first bowl game since 2019.

Who's not playing.... well, shit, it might be easier to list who IS playing in this one. The biggest absences... Cal... LB and leading tackler Elarms-Orr. He also had 6 PDs, which is impressive for a linebacker. They're also missing CB Earby, who tied for 2nd on the team in PDs with Elarms-Orr. WR Taj Davis, 2nd on the team with 39 receptions is "no longer with the team." Texas Tech... 2 starting WRs, Bradley & Price, but neither played in the season finale. DT Hutchings, who is pretty good, had surgery and is out. Starters S Tyler Owens (Ankle) and DE Steve Linton (Back) didn't play in the finale and are listed as questionable. And maybe most important... LT Mills (894 snaps, two sacks allowed) entered the portal.

Quick very important stat... no qb named Behren has ever won the Independence Bowl. Or any bowl, for that matter. I didn't even need to look it up!

Ok, speaking of Behren Morton, the oft-injured sophomore played the last 4 games of the season. He was solid, except for that rough finale against Texas. If you toss that game, his stats are certainly quite a bit better. Gotta wonder if the absence of Bradley and Price was a factor. TT is going to have to rely on RB Brooks, who had a solid year, averaging 5.4 yds/carry. Problem is, that's the strength of Cal's defense. They allow 3.84 yds/carry, 38th in the country. Senior Xavier White will be the primary target for Morton. He could have a big day against a porous Cal pass defense.

On the other side of the ball, freshman Mendoza took over as the starter in October. Not surprisingly, the team lost his 1st 4 starts. He completed 61% of his passes in those 4 games, with 6 TDs and 4 INTs. Those 4 games were all against ranked opponents. His last 3 games were quite a bit better. He completed 66% with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. He's going up against a decent TT pass defense that allowed 6.63 yards/att (37th in the country). Tech's run defense is not so stout. They allowed 4.49 yds/rush (87th). Jaydn Ott might have himself a day. He ran for over 150 yards in 3 out of 4 games before that excellent UCLA run defense slowed him down. But, as anyone who watched UCLA/Cal may remember... he's returning kicks now, too. He brought back a kickoff 99 yards.

I liked Cal when the lines came out, and I still do. I think Ott will have a big day against a TT defense that may still be a little shellshocked from the whoopin' Texas put on them. Tech may put up points on a Cal defense missing a couple important starters, but I like Cal to pull away in this one.

Cal (+3.5) 6 units
Cal (ML) 2 to win 3.1
Over (58) 2 units

 

[LuvThemDogs]

New Mexico

WTF do you do with this game? There's no value left with NM St at this line. Fresno's season just went completely off the rails in the SJ St game. They entered that game 8-1, fresh off a win over Boise and earlier wins at Purdue and Arizona St. Keene got hurt against SJ St, but they were already down 28-10 in the 2nd quarter, so you can't blame that.

OOC, NM St beat Western Illinois and New Mexico and lost to UMass and Hawaii, before inexplicably dominating Auburn. In conference, they beat everyone not named "Liberty."

I respect Jerry Kill as a coach. Oddly, he was 0-5 as a HC in bowls until getting a win last year.

New Mexico St has never played in the New Mexico Bowl.

I'm not digging into the #s for this one, because I don't think they matter all that much. If Fresno finds some motivation and shows up ready to play (win one for Tedford!), they can easily win this game. If they are caught up in the distractions and have zero interest in the New Mexico Bowl, which is certainly very possible, they can lose this by 20+.

The smart thing to do is stay off this game. But where's the fun in that? I just can't lay points with this NM St team. So, screw it, I'll root for Fresno St to get it together and have some fun putting up points.

Fresno St (ML) 1 to win 1.5
Fresno St TT over (23.5) 1.2 to win 1

I'm from Fresno and I've watched every game. You're pretty much spot on about the Bulldogs. How do they beat the two best teams in the league, UNLV and Boise, and then get beat by San Jose, NM and SDSU? After it was announced that Tedford was having health issues and wouldn't be at the Bowl game, it made sense that may have been the underlying problem the last 3 weeks of the season. I've never seen a team do a 180 the way the Dogs did this year. Tedford really drives that team.

You really don't know what you're going to get with them at this point. If they play to their potential, they'll handle NM St. But it's a big "if." My issue with them is they give up HUGE chunk yards at a time and RB's seem to roll over them. I think NM St runs the ball well. We'll see I guess. I'd rather bet on them if you're going to make any wager on this game at all and we'll just have to hope the team that handled UNLV and Boise is the one that shows up to the game. GL

 

[LuvThemDogs]

I will add this as well. San Jose St impressed the hell out of me. They literally blew the doors off of Fresno St. They went 6-0 the last 6 conference games. I think they roll Coastal Carolina who supposedly is using a 3rd string QB. They've also lost a starting WR and LB.

 

[Smitty]

thank you for the input. good stuff. and i agree about SJ St. they got screwed out of the MW championship game. beating unly in the last game, only to get left out, when unlv didn't even have to play boise during the season. why the hell they'd leave it up to computer rankings before head-to-head is beyond me.

you could understand it if all 3 teams played each other and all were 1-1 in those games. but their records in games played between them....

boise 1-0
sj st 1-1
unlv 0-1

unlv should not have been in the championship game.

 

[Zman0426]

Really enjoyed reading your write ups. I am with you on Cal. Like the Unders in both Ohio and UCLA. Best of luck in your plays. Continued success.

 

[JustFootball]

Anybody know why Ohio is now down to just +1.5?

 

[Smitty]

Anybody know why Ohio is now down to just +1.5?

what can i say, i move the lines.

 

[Smitty]

Really enjoyed reading your write ups. I am with you on Cal. Like the Unders in both Ohio and UCLA. Best of luck in your plays. Continued success.

thank you. welcome to the neighborhood.

 

[redsfann]

Anybody know why Ohio is now down to just +1.5?

Lots of wagers on them?

 

[Smitty]

Also, Ohio has picked off 12 passes this year, which is 22nd in the country. Given Brin's propensity for throwin' 'em this year, we may see a couple more Saturday.

 

[JustFootball]

Great calls Smitty! I believe you are 5-0 and that ain't bad for one game into bowl season!