12/21 Playoff Games

[Smitty]

really do not like the first game. the 3rd-best team in a really weak big 10 and the best? (conference championship game notwithstanding) team from the acc... and the winner gets to play boise, so one of these teams could easily be in the semifinals.

neither team has an impressive win. psu's best win... illinois? and smu's best win is... louisville? at least psu's losses (ohio st & oregon) were to better teams than smu lost to (byu & clemson).

both teams are in the top 14 at stopping the rush. smu gives up 2.7 yds/carry and psu allows 3.2, so we'll see if either team can consistently run the ball today.

i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.

we're half an hour from kickoff, so i'm going to wrap this one up. i just looked at the weather, and it's going to be WINDY. soooo...

under (52.5) 3X

 

[ejthree]

really do not like the first game. the 3rd-best team in a really weak big 10 and the best? (conference championship game notwithstanding) team from the acc... and the winner gets to play boise, so one of these teams could easily be in the semifinals.

neither team has an impressive win. psu's best win... illinois? and smu's best win is... louisville? at least psu's losses (ohio st & oregon) were to better teams than smu lost to (byu & clemson).

both teams are in the top 14 at stopping the rush. smu gives up 2.7 yds/carry and psu allows 3.2, so we'll see if either team can consistently run the ball today.

i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.

we're half an hour from kickoff, so i'm going to wrap this one up. i just looked at the weather, and it's going to be WINDY. soooo...

under (52.5) 3X

GL Smitty...

 

[Smitty]

GL Smitty...

thank you, sir. so far, i've only had BL.

i'm betting a bunch of parlays that start with this game under some adjusted #s (mostly 54.5), so it will probably be 31-28 at halftime.

 

[Smitty]

i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.

if this game goes over because this idiot keeps throwing TDs to psu... yeah, that'll fit right in with the horrible beats i'm taking.

this keeps up much longer, and the smu defense is gonna quit.

 

[Smitty]

if texas didn't have to play georgia, they'd be a lot happier. they were 11-0 against everybody else. their best win was an ugly 17-7 win over texas a&m. clemson's best win was over SMU.

another game where it doesn't look like either team will have a lot of success on the ground. texas was surprisingly average running the ball, picking up 4.5 yards/carry. they may still try to establish the run though, as clemson was thoroughly mediocre, allowing 4.6 yards/carry (in the ACC!!). clemson is better, running for 5.2 yds/carry. but texas has been very solid, giving up only 3.1/carry.

both teams have been excellent against the pass. texas leads the country, allowing 5.1 yards/att. clemson gives up 6.3 (25th in the country).

clemson played 2 SEC teams, scoring 3 (against Georgia) and 14 (against South Carolina). texas also struggled offensively against the better teams they played, scoring 16 (in regulation) against georgia, 17 against a&m, and 15 against georgia.

ewers has consistently struggled against good opponents. not really sure that clemson qualifies though.

Under (49.5) 4X
1H Under (25.5) 2X
Clemson 1H TT under (7.5) 3.6 to win 3
Texas (-13.5) 2X

 

[ejthree]

if texas didn't have to play georgia, they'd be a lot happier. they were 11-0 against everybody else. their best win was an ugly 17-7 win over texas a&m. clemson's best win was over SMU.

another game where it doesn't look like either team will have a lot of success on the ground. texas was surprisingly average running the ball, picking up 4.5 yards/carry. they may still try to establish the run though, as clemson was thoroughly mediocre, allowing 4.6 yards/carry (in the ACC!!). clemson is better, running for 5.2 yds/carry. but texas has been very solid, giving up only 3.1/carry.

both teams have been excellent against the pass. texas leads the country, allowing 5.1 yards/att. clemson gives up 6.3 (25th in the country).

clemson played 2 SEC teams, scoring 3 (against Georgia) and 14 (against South Carolina). texas also struggled offensively against the better teams they played, scoring 16 (in regulation) against georgia, 17 against a&m, and 15 against georgia.

ewers has consistently struggled against good opponents. not really sure that clemson qualifies though.

Under (49.5) 4X
1H Under (25.5) 2X
Clemson 1H TT under (7.5) 3.6 to win 3
Texas (-13.5) 2X

I'm with you on the under, time to get on a winning track...Let's FN Gooooo...

 

[Smitty]

a win is a win, but i'm still pissed off that i even had to sweat the smu/psu total.

ok, last game of the evening. another one i don't really love. ohio st ain't all that great this year. i really want to take tennessee. BUUUUUTTTTTT.... tennessee starts a true freshman qb. no fucking way i can back a true freshman in a playoff game at the horseshoe.

both teams will need to run the ball (familiar trend). will howard had a good year, but he put up a lot of numbers against inferior opponents. they will need to establish the run to take pressure off him. and tennessee actually picked up more yards on the ground this year than through the air. these defenses rank 4th & 5th in the country stopping the run (both allow 2.8 yards/rush). so, once again, it's hard to imagine either offense having sustained success.

the under is the obvious bet, and i have the under in some parlays (parlays that will all die before this game if texas doesn't get their heads out of their asses). but i think the better bet is the ohio st TT under. tennessee's defense has been excellent. the most points they gave up all year was 23 to Vandy in the season finale, but one TD was in garbage time, and they also gave up the opening kickoff TD. so take that 23 with a grain of salt.

ohio st TT under (27.5) 6 to win 5
ohio st 1H TT under (13.5) 2X

 

[Smitty]

ohio st TT under (27.5) 6 to win 5
ohio st 1H TT under (13.5) 2X

never mind. clearly ohio state is the greatest football team ever assembled.

 

[LordofBalls]

it's amazing how nationwide embarrassment can motivate these college kids eh?

I'm on the OVER 47, Oh St looks they'll have that by halftime lol
(drank some Tenn kool-aid and used em in a parlay.. obv I wasn't thinking right)
this game was the only one that wasn't such a mismatch physically, maybe Tenn will backdoor em.. it's a longshot lol

Better Luck Smitty!

 

[yyz]

never mind. clearly ohio state is the greatest football team ever assembled.

You mean THE Ohio State......

 

[Smitty]

You mean THE Ohio State......

nope, never heard of 'em.