12/21 Playoff Games

Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
really do not like the first game. the 3rd-best team in a really weak big 10 and the best? (conference championship game notwithstanding) team from the acc... and the winner gets to play boise, so one of these teams could easily be in the semifinals.

neither team has an impressive win. psu's best win... illinois? and smu's best win is... louisville? at least psu's losses (ohio st & oregon) were to better teams than smu lost to (byu & clemson).

both teams are in the top 14 at stopping the rush. smu gives up 2.7 yds/carry and psu allows 3.2, so we'll see if either team can consistently run the ball today.

i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.

we're half an hour from kickoff, so i'm going to wrap this one up. i just looked at the weather, and it's going to be WINDY. soooo...

under (52.5) 3X
 
  • Like
Reactions: rocky mountain and ejthree
ejthree

ejthree

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2006
4,694
452
83
Smitty said:
really do not like the first game. the 3rd-best team in a really weak big 10 and the best? (conference championship game notwithstanding) team from the acc... and the winner gets to play boise, so one of these teams could easily be in the semifinals.

neither team has an impressive win. psu's best win... illinois? and smu's best win is... louisville? at least psu's losses (ohio st & oregon) were to better teams than smu lost to (byu & clemson).

both teams are in the top 14 at stopping the rush. smu gives up 2.7 yds/carry and psu allows 3.2, so we'll see if either team can consistently run the ball today.

i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.

we're half an hour from kickoff, so i'm going to wrap this one up. i just looked at the weather, and it's going to be WINDY. soooo...

under (52.5) 3X
Click to expand...
GL Smitty...
 
Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
Smitty said:
i think the big x-factor will be jennings' legs. if he's smart enough to tuck it and run instead of forcing some balls, smu may have some success.
Click to expand...
if this game goes over because this idiot keeps throwing TDs to psu... yeah, that'll fit right in with the horrible beats i'm taking.

this keeps up much longer, and the smu defense is gonna quit.
 
Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
if texas didn't have to play georgia, they'd be a lot happier. they were 11-0 against everybody else. their best win was an ugly 17-7 win over texas a&m. clemson's best win was over SMU.

another game where it doesn't look like either team will have a lot of success on the ground. texas was surprisingly average running the ball, picking up 4.5 yards/carry. they may still try to establish the run though, as clemson was thoroughly mediocre, allowing 4.6 yards/carry (in the ACC!!). clemson is better, running for 5.2 yds/carry. but texas has been very solid, giving up only 3.1/carry.

both teams have been excellent against the pass. texas leads the country, allowing 5.1 yards/att. clemson gives up 6.3 (25th in the country).

clemson played 2 SEC teams, scoring 3 (against Georgia) and 14 (against South Carolina). texas also struggled offensively against the better teams they played, scoring 16 (in regulation) against georgia, 17 against a&m, and 15 against georgia.

ewers has consistently struggled against good opponents. not really sure that clemson qualifies though.

Under (49.5) 4X
1H Under (25.5) 2X
Clemson 1H TT under (7.5) 3.6 to win 3
Texas (-13.5) 2X
 
ejthree

ejthree

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 7, 2006
4,694
452
83
Smitty said:
if texas didn't have to play georgia, they'd be a lot happier. they were 11-0 against everybody else. their best win was an ugly 17-7 win over texas a&m. clemson's best win was over SMU.

another game where it doesn't look like either team will have a lot of success on the ground. texas was surprisingly average running the ball, picking up 4.5 yards/carry. they may still try to establish the run though, as clemson was thoroughly mediocre, allowing 4.6 yards/carry (in the ACC!!). clemson is better, running for 5.2 yds/carry. but texas has been very solid, giving up only 3.1/carry.

both teams have been excellent against the pass. texas leads the country, allowing 5.1 yards/att. clemson gives up 6.3 (25th in the country).

clemson played 2 SEC teams, scoring 3 (against Georgia) and 14 (against South Carolina). texas also struggled offensively against the better teams they played, scoring 16 (in regulation) against georgia, 17 against a&m, and 15 against georgia.

ewers has consistently struggled against good opponents. not really sure that clemson qualifies though.

Under (49.5) 4X
1H Under (25.5) 2X
Clemson 1H TT under (7.5) 3.6 to win 3
Texas (-13.5) 2X
Click to expand...
I'm with you on the under, time to get on a winning track...Let's FN Gooooo...
 
Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
a win is a win, but i'm still pissed off that i even had to sweat the smu/psu total.

ok, last game of the evening. another one i don't really love. ohio st ain't all that great this year. i really want to take tennessee. BUUUUUTTTTTT.... tennessee starts a true freshman qb. no fucking way i can back a true freshman in a playoff game at the horseshoe.

both teams will need to run the ball (familiar trend). will howard had a good year, but he put up a lot of numbers against inferior opponents. they will need to establish the run to take pressure off him. and tennessee actually picked up more yards on the ground this year than through the air. these defenses rank 4th & 5th in the country stopping the run (both allow 2.8 yards/rush). so, once again, it's hard to imagine either offense having sustained success.

the under is the obvious bet, and i have the under in some parlays (parlays that will all die before this game if texas doesn't get their heads out of their asses). but i think the better bet is the ohio st TT under. tennessee's defense has been excellent. the most points they gave up all year was 23 to Vandy in the season finale, but one TD was in garbage time, and they also gave up the opening kickoff TD. so take that 23 with a grain of salt.

ohio st TT under (27.5) 6 to win 5
ohio st 1H TT under (13.5) 2X
 
  • Like
Reactions: ejthree and rocky mountain
LordofBalls

LordofBalls

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 31, 2006
8,119
413
83
California
it's amazing how nationwide embarrassment can motivate these college kids eh?

I'm on the OVER 47, Oh St looks they'll have that by halftime lol
(drank some Tenn kool-aid and used em in a parlay.. obv I wasn't thinking right)
this game was the only one that wasn't such a mismatch physically, maybe Tenn will backdoor em.. it's a longshot lol

Better Luck Smitty!
 
Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
Slumdog said:
11 am start smitty. Wake up. Rise and shine. ✨ 🥱
Click to expand...
yeah, i almost said something last night. i knew i wouldn't have any time to work on games today. maybe for the best, as i got my ass handed to me the last few college games.

i think i'm literally gonna throw $20 on coastal and maybe a little more on fresno, just to give me a rooting interest. i know NOTHING about coastal this year. utsa has a coach in his first year there, and they struggled without frank harris for the first time since 1982.

speaking of harris.... is he on an nfl roster? doesn't look like he is. blows my mind that somebody like tommy devito is not only on a roster, but getting some starts, but nobody has a spot for frank harris? maybe it's because he's 47 years old?

oh, and all i know about northern ill is, of course, they beat ND. but i also know fresno is a much better overall team. doesn't mean they'll win, of course. and i'm guessing half their roster is in the portal. fresno will probably be super-excited to play on the blue turf, since they didn't get to play boise this year. :)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Slumdog
Smitty

Smitty

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 5, 2005
6,673
1,496
113
Upstate NY
Slumdog said:
I used to live for bowl season. Now that went to chit too. 😩
Click to expand...
yeah, i'm starting to head in that direction. for years, i always did very well up until new years day. probably because i naturally lean towards the dogs. anyway... it's becoming impossible to handicap, what with the damn portal and opt-outs. too many 3rd-string qbs are starting these games. so it's tougher to bet and the games often suck.

oh, one factor that nobody talks about... have you noticed that all the sudden there are very few bowl games that pit a power 5 team against a "mid-major" team? i used to love those games, because if you were familiar with the "mid-majors", you knew which ones could actually play with the big boys. and, of course, they RELISHED their shot. now, you don't get much of that. teams from the AAC/MAC/Sunbelt, etc are all playing each other, while the other games feature 2 mediocre teams from the power 5 conferences. part of what made bowl season great was watching the little fellas pulling off the big upsets, because you knew it MEANT something to them.

my guess is the big boys got tired of being embarrassed in those games, so they changed the bowl affiliations. it's better to lose to boston college than western michigan.

ok, old man rant over.

quick bitch about fresno... wtf? sure, it's easy to blame the kicker for missing several easy kicks (he was 13 of 17 coming in, with all 4 misses in 2 games. kinda odd.). but let's remember.... for some inexplicable reason, fresno went for 2 after their first TD and failed. if not for that, that game doesn't even go to OT.

ok, on to the hawaii bowl. i hope to have some time tomorrow afternoon to work on it. first glance, the line seems light (san jose is much better than USF), but... maybe a couple players sitting? *sigh*
 
  • Like
Reactions: LordofBalls
oxnardca1

oxnardca1

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 7, 2006
5,242
285
83
Oxnard, CA
Smitty said:
yeah, i'm starting to head in that direction. for years, i always did very well up until new years day. probably because i naturally lean towards the dogs. anyway... it's becoming impossible to handicap, what with the damn portal and opt-outs. too many 3rd-string qbs are starting these games. so it's tougher to bet and the games often suck.

oh, one factor that nobody talks about... have you noticed that all the sudden there are very few bowl games that pit a power 5 team against a "mid-major" team? i used to love those games, because if you were familiar with the "mid-majors", you knew which ones could actually play with the big boys. and, of course, they RELISHED their shot. now, you don't get much of that. teams from the AAC/MAC/Sunbelt, etc are all playing each other, while the other games feature 2 mediocre teams from the power 5 conferences. part of what made bowl season great was watching the little fellas pulling off the big upsets, because you knew it MEANT something to them.

my guess is the big boys got tired of being embarrassed in those games, so they changed the bowl affiliations. it's better to lose to boston college than western michigan.

ok, old man rant over.

quick bitch about fresno... wtf? sure, it's easy to blame the kicker for missing several easy kicks (he was 13 of 17 coming in, with all 4 misses in 2 games. kinda odd.). but let's remember.... for some inexplicable reason, fresno went for 2 after their first TD and failed. if not for that, that game doesn't even go to OT.

ok, on to the hawaii bowl. i hope to have some time tomorrow afternoon to work on it. first glance, the line seems light (san jose is much better than USF), but... maybe a couple players sitting? *sigh*
Click to expand...
PERFECTLY stated Smitty!!!!
W the opt outs, and affiliations, especially this year, even the matchups seem different!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Bet on MyBookie
Top