Germany@Korea 7:30 AM EST
Some things that worry me about the Germany game, from a Korean point of view:
Tired legs - Team Korea has done a lot of running the past week, with 2 double overtime games in a row. Kim Nam-il, who is so important in Korea's midfield, will be out. He helped shut down Portugal, frustrated the heck out of Totti until he sprained his ankle, and played the first half against Spain until he got spiked. After he left against Spain, Joaquin ran wild on the Lee Eul-yong, Kim's replacement, with Lee Young-pyo switching over into the middle. Ahn Jung-hwan also got kicked in the chest and has a bruise, but should be able to play. Kim Tae-young played his heart out - what a race with Luis Enrique to stop a possible breakaway. But he definitely played tentatively with a broken nose, thanks to Vieri, and was replaced by Hwang, I believe.
Sneaky Klose - Klose is another controversy waiting to happen. His diving against the US was very surprising. Arena, as gracious a sport as there is, mentioned how surprised he was at how easily the big strong Germans went down. The refs will be tested again.
Air attack - Germans will try to take it to the air as much as possible. Korea usually has a good air game, but Spain dominated against Korea in the air, winning most of the 50-50 balls. Korea's tired legs do not help. Choi Jin-cheul had a very strong game against Spain, and as Korea's tallest defender at 1.87m, he has to rule the skies against the Germans.
Set pieces - Korea defended well for the most part against Spain's set pieces. German's best chance to score will be from their set pieces, I believe.
Weather - If it rains, does that help Korea or Germany? The ball gets faster and little bit more unpredictable, but the wet turf slows down the players.
Referee - Please, no more controversies.
Why I could see a Germany victory
The Koreans biggest asset, their fitness, will be less of a factor due to having played two double overtimes within the past 4 or 5 days.
The Germans, who are very efficient passers and tacklers, will make the Koreans run a lot.
The Germans biggest asset, their size and heading ability, is Korea's biggest weakness. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jancker in for Nueville in order to further exploit this advantage.
The Germans are deadly on set pieces and the Koreans are not great on defense of set pieces.
The Koreans, while their approach play is often excellent, are not the best finishers.
Oliver Kahn is a monster. The Koreans will have be better than their very best in order to beat a solid German defense and the amazing Kahn.
While whining about the refs is pointless, Korea's luck with the calls in the last two games was unquestionably very good. Their luck is likely to run out. True, the Germans were lucky on the Frings no-call hand-ball against the USA, but that was an inadvertant hand ball (the ball played the arm, not the other way around). As much as I wanted the penalty for the USA, I had to admit that the no-call was justifiable.
The Germans know how to get results. Yes, their play has been lackluster at times, but they fight enough and are smart enough to get positive results.
Korea's only REAL advantage coming into this game is they are playing at their true home ground - Seoul. The most claustrophobic and biggest stadium in Korea.. I wonder how the Germans will handle it.
The Germans have all the cards going in this match:
- They will most probably get a few calls going their way. The refs are aware of the controversy and don't want to look any worse.
- Korea won't be the fitness freaks they were in the group stage. All their key players have run their arses off (250 minutes in 4 days)
- Germany has prepared to face a team like Korea with their defeat of the USA
- Germans get their goals from set-pieces and headers. Korea's two defensive weaknesses..
- Oliver Kahn is a MONSTER. What are you supposed to do to get a goal against him??
I won't be surprised at all if Korea end up losing this match the same way Spain did..in controversy.. because of the people who overreacted to the one truly obvious mistake by the referee (which by the way would probably have been stopped by the keeper had he even cared)
Prediction:
Germany 1 Korea 0 in extra time
With a mistake by the ref which may have resulted in a Korean goal (I'M NOT SAYING DISALLOWED GOAL THERE IS NO SUCH THING UNLESS THE WHISTLE ISN'T BLOWN) in the first half
Hence I am making a play on the under for 2 units
UNDER 2.5 -155
2*
GL
TTM$
