Last year I lost about 200 units in picks posted here. Won't be posting as often as last year (or adding up record daily), but whatever i post in tennis will be on this thread. Will round off the decimals to whole numbers. (bet/win). will post new picks in same post, make a new post for each week. i will also stick in links to interesting articles, and my picks in football, but will not count those in any record, just tennis picks. feel free to comment or laugh at my picks, i dont care and will respond, but as said i'm going to put each WEEK's picks into the same post. then start a new one for week two, etc. we'll track the tennis calendar.
week #1
TUESDAY
2/16 2p nara (venus) and htuch (u-rad) L
10/12 2p halep (vikh) and zvona (buyk) W
10/34 5p dolg(kliz), kar-plis(kudry), halep(vikh), zvona(buyk), goerg(hrad) L
FOOTBALL: link to absolute delusionality (in some fan comments) about foles. he already lost a year of development wasted on has-been vick, and now they want to ditch foles for someone else...who? there are few qb with any real quality not spoken for, and anyone coming out of college is an unknown, see johnny football. there's no guarantee mariota will be any better than bortles or bridgewater. not to mention it takes time to develop, an even qbs who shine in first year often regress. andrew luck really is a one-in-a-generation qb in that he has all the tools - size, culture, training, mentality. there is no reason to think that foles won't improve with experience. i cant help but notice how certain kinds of qb are given endless excuses and time to develop while others are shunted off after a few bad games or (in the case of tebow) after winning seasons. it seems crazy, but it also means easy money if you know how to read the media and the mass delusions they foster (example - mark sanchez having changed his spots)]
http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/700-level/here?s-why-eagles-should-extend-nick-foles
WEDNESDAY
10/8 3p: agut(gojo), sharap(nav), halep(krunic) W
10/11 kubot (groth) L
10/17 zheng (diyas) W
10/8 zheng-diyas 20' over W
2/6 vesnina (v-williams) L
10/11 davis (u-radwanska) W
FOOTBALL: re picked-up flag: didnt think should have been called in first place, the receiver had his hand on or grabbing the facemask of the defender, who imo put his hands out to side in part to demonstrate he wasn't holding the other guy. he did not cause the guy not to catch the pass, and the receiver borderline infracting himself.
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/33...p4?versionId=BJ.aaHGqNZHhrqcMHdrWR6WN_S5TgMxG
people talk of fixed games, but it's subtler than that. it's that the refs make sure, in many circumstances, that the side their employer (the NFL) prefers, for marketing or other reasons, doesn't get screwed. this is not the same as guaranteeing they win, it's guaranteeing they dont lose through bad reffing. which is an edge - and an edge that can normally be calculated ahead of time. it makes a lot of sense to consider league-marketing when evaluating nfl for betting opportunities. IF the league's outcomes were scripted, a la pro wrestling, what outcomes would make for a good script? think like that, and you will be alert to another angle that helps you understand what's going on, which is an entertainment product based around an athletic contest. always consider production values when it comes to predicting outcomes. the games aren't fixed, there's enough money for everyone (with the odd exception) but they are often tweaked - and frequently in predictable ways. the nfl knows that people don't like those perceived as bad guys, like stepper-stomper Suh and rapist Winston, and it is not against tweaking things a little to ensure they receive karmic comeuppance. in betting one is responsible for considering all angles, not just those one thinks should properly apply. in the case of dallas detroit, if the league wanted to fix the outcome, surely it would have kept suh banned, right? the subtle, accurate read is the league knows dal is loved and hated (same thing from marketing pov) and it's good for the league when dal is talked about. and jerry jones has invested huge money. then you have a shit team like det with a lousy management and an overt sadistic bully as one of its best players. it's no surprise if there are little small helps given they will go to the home team. this stuff is predictable. not perfectly, but generally. the refs are unlikely to screw brady or rodgers this week. nor payton manning. but taking the long view, they are unlikely to screw good-guy and budding best-qb-of-all-time andrew luck either. reffing should be pretty neutral this weekend, i judge.
thought for the day: if you dont think mass sports is politics by other means, ask yourself how it is that a league that has ryan lindley starting a playoff game has no spot for proven-winner tim tebow. was car-ariz not precisely the kind of game tebow excelled at pulling out? was it not precisely the kind where his running and inspirational leadership could have made the difference? arizona was ahead at ht, 14-13. even mediocre qb play would have resulted in arizona victory. seriously ask yourself: why does ryan lindley have a job but not tim tebow unless there's some other consideration than talent at work? what is it about tebow that some group of people is deliberately blackballing or seeking to avoid?
what use can we make of the above? that all the opps cam newton and carolina left for arizona will be taken advantage of by seattle. russell wilson is like the anti-newton, he makes smart decision after smart decision. we are lucky that all recent car-sea games have been close (and played in car), which pushes against the blowout here, but that's what seems likeliest to me. newton is not a good qb, wilson is a very good qb. newton will have to play 3x better for car to have any shot at seattle. i dont think he will. i think sea will win that game comfortably. i recommend sea on ML (just for calm peaceful feeling) and/or selling points up to 14 or 17 if your book will let you. ... what else?... i like ind. they beat cin easily, and still veiled for those not paying attention is ind left lots of points on table, thanks to drops from hilton, mainly. i think hilton plays better. i think luck is better than manning. i think seven points is too many. i like ind all ways, but ML and teased to 14 in particular. ... would love to see bal upset NE, but when tempted to bet that way, it's what i call an uphill bet. if you bet bal, with points, do you think you're going to win? no...you're HOPING to win. that is what i call betting uphill. dont do it. resist the impulse to bet hopes rather than realities. ... finally there's gb and dallas. imo, this turns on whether rodgers is healthy. if he is, GB wins, and i would just use ML and rest easy. but if he's not, then it becomes closer to 50-50. i dont trust what anyone says about health in cases like this, been burned too many times. i think this is a game to play live once we see what's really going on. even if rodgers is healthy, it seems he has a problem that is easily reinjured. as for dallas, i dont think romo has changed a bit, he cant perform under pressure. their great rb is tired and slowing. their great receiver is an overrated head case - compare to jordy nelson, who do you want? nelson is better. the only reason not to jump on gb is serious question about rodgers' leg.
and the final point to consider, from what we've just said about refs, how does it apply to dal at gb? we've just seen dal get helped at home. i dont see it that way, but most of the world appears to. that's the way the media are selling it. so how much chance do you think dal gets helped again at gb? not much, right? if the refs are going to help anyone, it's probably gb and beloved rodgers, right? and if a dubious call or two favored GB, then that would only be fair karmic retribution, and that's how the masses would see it, and how the media would sell it...right? right. so that's a little chit you throw on the pile AGAINST betting on dal. it's another little risk you incur making that decision. most likely the game will not turn on a reffing call, but if it does, it is likelier that call will favor gb than dallas in my opinion. this kind of analysis rather than blather about fixes is how to look at these questions.
rodgers and mccarthy
http://grantland.com/features/aaron...green-bay-packers-new-age-west-coast-offense/
oregon d vs osu
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/c...onship-game-oregon-defense-versus-ohio-state/
THURSDAY
100/46 2p rao(groth), sharap(svit) W
10/22 4p dodig(seppi), rao(groth), sharap(svit), wawr(muller) L
500/52 halep (zheng) W
MONEY MANAGEMENT: I segment my bets into sharp categories as a way to keep clear in mind whether really like something or dont. The idea is that the crap in the middle, the ones you sorta like for mid-level amounts, are the ones that kill you. so I do it by tens. 1-2, 10-20, 100-200, 500, 1000. And firmly stay out of the spaces in between. If your action gland overheats, drain it with fun/impossible $1 lottery-ticket parlays and teasers. For a roll under 1000, the bets should be strict 1-10-100, but when roll is over 1000, then can let the extra 1-10-100 bleed in. but keep that middle cleared out. you need a 10x difference between levels to stay serious and keep it clear in your head. it's early in tennis season and dont have max confidence, but i'm looking for stuff i can pound for 100-500-1000, so far haven't seen anything, just the one parlay. i dont say this strategy is the only way to do it, of course, but it works well for me, and it might for you.
TENNIS: halep and sharapova looking quite sharp. svit looked good but kerb basically gave her the match in her usual odd way of blowing hot and cold. am just guessing dodig handles seppi. one of the better ways to make money i have found, particularly in college football, is to pair a 50-50 (or two) you have a strong pick(s) on with a number of FMLs you are very sure (80%) will come in there. you get a 3-5x return or more (altho in this case a little less, since i couldnt find other FML to go with it) for maybe 2x the risk of a straight 50-50 pick. groth had a nice win over kubot, came down to 3rd set tiebreak, but there's no way raonic's class won't tell if he's anywhere near to playing his average level. way i see it, we get a nearly 50% ROI for what should be a couple pretty easy matches. the tournaments are far enough along both sharap and rao are invested; and the big one (Aus Open) is still two weeks away, so they won't worry about overextending themselves. neither has any injury, as far as i know, that might cause them to withdraw if they tweak it a little. my main focus is on halep. she's playing unwrapped. was pushed a little in first round, but firing on all cylinders with full power last night. she is playing next week as well, from what i've read, so a little worried about her getting used up before the major. if she wins this first tournament (shenzhen) i would look for her to lose early at sydney, that is her pattern, and we may be able to cash a nice dog ticket. that's thinking ahead, we'll see how the rest of this tournament goes, but really she should make final and play kvit, whether she beats her or not. she should beat zheng easily enough. i dont really play games in tennis or sides in fball, i think it's much easier to string together MLs than guess how many points some team will win by.
bill walsh ideas
http://smartfootball.blogspot.in/2007/08/bill-walsh-method-for-game-planning.html
TENNIS: lose on dodig, had breaks in both sets but gave them back. halep line comes up mid-afternoon, i take it for 500/52. halep won in an hour yesterday, zheng has played three straight 3-set matches. she should be a little tired and is not nearly good enough to do more than take a stray set from halep. the crowd will be on her side. if halep had any injury or any questionable incentive, this would not be worth making, but i judge she will want to make the final against kvitova, most likely opponent. That will be a good early measure of strength, and if there's to be a letdown, it's likelier to come next week at Sydney, the week before the Australian Open.
sfgate on being a bookie
http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment...kie-The-highs-and-lows-of-dealing-5999927.php
TENNIS: win on halep. she's looking near top, in great shape, just missing a little, otherwise near peak. zheng looks very good for a young one, she will be on the rise. groth played as well as he could, serving atom balls and even returning well, but ultimately, he was doing it with serves and mirrors and was found out in two tiebreaks. few hours and sharapova will play young svitolina, and hopefully defeat her, with about the same ease h had over zheng. ... yep, sharap wins easy, so parlay is in. saw some bacsinszky, looked very good, powerful and aggressive against kvitova.
gb's o-line
http://grantland.com/features/green-bay-packers-offensive-line-aaron-rodgers/
FRIDAY
10/25 2p rao(nish), halep(bacs) W
TENNIS: rao is a big enough dog it's worth a shot. halep probably outduels bacs, but bacs is playing well and the price is not worth going big on.
FOOTBALL: nutshell views of the five games, moving backward from monday. never bet against urban meyer is a solid principle. same for chip kelly. but there are situations... mariota is better than osu's backup. get a 50% return for ore winning game. going to go 500 or 1000 on this myself, but no need to do that until the last minute. i believe it is far better to wait until last minute to dead-bet than try to get best lines. it is easier to beat football playing teasers and ML than plain sides. i would rather pay more, even much more, to get the number where i think it's 80% likely to come in than to get a higher return for something that's 50-50. if the linesmakers know what they're doing, then why would one want either side of the line in the 90% of cases where one didn't have a strong opinion? ORE ML is the strongest bet of the weekend, i say. all the nobs have seen all these +200 or +250 dogs cash, and they think they're going to hop on that train for the NC. do you think that will work? if were to do a straight bet it would be under, but would still prefer to tease this (contrary to what sharps say you should do - never tease college or high totals) along with one or two others. i like IND ml. why not a breakthrough game? i will play it strong this year, and if it loses, i will play it again next year. luck is a better qb than manning right now. like ind all ways but ML and teased over 14 best. dal gb should only be played live because of the real chance that rodgers' leg hampers him. if he were healthy, pound gb. romo/garrett are as fake as ever, dont be taken in by media blather. but if rodgers is injured, dal can win because they can generate at least a little offense, and we dont want big money riding on matt flynn backup. for me, this is just a game to enjoy and bet live if/once we see what's really up with rodgers. seattle - there's only one way to go here and that's seattle. it's 50-50 which team newton puts more points on the board for. i dont have any clever insights, it simply has every appearance of a game that grinds toward a cumulative blowout or is a blowout from the first play. i dont trust newton at all, certainly not if he needs to come from behind. the only problem is 80% of public will see this the same way, so how to bet it? Two ways: on the ML. Or sell points. Always ask yourself when betting, particularly NFL: which outcome would screw the most people? Particularly in big or primtime games. Carolina covering would screw a lot of people. If it is the blowout most expect, you're safe selling points up to 14, to get odds on. That's worth more than the tiny risk it comes in right on 10 or 11. And if you're wrong, you lose the same amount. And if you bet ML, you're protected against car coming anywhere within 12 points of Sea but not winning. I just dont see any way car wins this, given smart Wilson vs Superdummy Newton. of course, it's nfl, so no result can truly be surprising, but that's why take the ML for 20% return, or use in parlay. bal-ne, have to think NE on ML is way to go here. bal is a playoff team, and so always dangerous, but NE has executed as well as i've seen a pro team execute in games this year, and they should outscore baltimore. so my plays will be combos or straights on these: if you're going for a win: ORE ML. Love it. SEA ML. Love it. if you're going for a return: IND ML - love it. SEA -14 (sell for odds on, ie better return). for TEASE: ne (-1 or +4) and ind (14 or 17), ore total UNDER 84+. i do not agree with teasing down from numbers in 10-14 range, you are just asking to be burned, so many nfl games end in not just 3-4 but 1-2. all you need is one screwup at start of game, and the heavy fav is playing from behind and either loses or spends all game getting in position to win at the very end by small number. the ML clarifies things tremendously, dog or fav. move the number to where you're 80% sure you're going to win - OR have a big return that justifies the risk - like IND simply winning at denver, which can very easily happen.
TENNIS: win on rao. that was a ridiculous line, it should have been 120/120 not nish heavily favored. it was a pure tossup as the result showed. i got shy on halep, turned out to be easy. she has been death in that range, anything 1.2 to 1.3. regret not putting another 500/125 but bacs looked good and still unsure about a letdown. now she is supposed to be playing sydney next week. she came through shenzhen easily, with no injuries at all, and no real stress from set play. but given her history must be very careful backing her off a win, in fact i probably will not but will put that money on her future to win aus open, which is sitting at 9 right now. (+800).
SATURDAY:
10/85 5p benc(gav), kuz(keys), pvic(gajd), nara(kouk), larss(orma) L
FOOTBALL: Like north dak state. lots of blather about their opponent, same with baltimore. overreaction to last week, go with pats on ML. go with sea on ML or any other way. i like 500/675 3p: ne, sea, ore.
TENNIS: raining in australia, finally lets up for kuz match. notice that halep says she was a little sick before her final. i dont really believe that, i think she is setting herself up with an excuse to retire or withdraw in sydney, and will play that way.
SUNDAY
10/21 posp(seppi), a-rad(corn), beck(cepe) [carried over to wk2]
[week 1: +134]
week #1
TUESDAY
2/16 2p nara (venus) and htuch (u-rad) L
10/12 2p halep (vikh) and zvona (buyk) W
10/34 5p dolg(kliz), kar-plis(kudry), halep(vikh), zvona(buyk), goerg(hrad) L
FOOTBALL: link to absolute delusionality (in some fan comments) about foles. he already lost a year of development wasted on has-been vick, and now they want to ditch foles for someone else...who? there are few qb with any real quality not spoken for, and anyone coming out of college is an unknown, see johnny football. there's no guarantee mariota will be any better than bortles or bridgewater. not to mention it takes time to develop, an even qbs who shine in first year often regress. andrew luck really is a one-in-a-generation qb in that he has all the tools - size, culture, training, mentality. there is no reason to think that foles won't improve with experience. i cant help but notice how certain kinds of qb are given endless excuses and time to develop while others are shunted off after a few bad games or (in the case of tebow) after winning seasons. it seems crazy, but it also means easy money if you know how to read the media and the mass delusions they foster (example - mark sanchez having changed his spots)]
http://www.csnphilly.com/blog/700-level/here?s-why-eagles-should-extend-nick-foles
WEDNESDAY
10/8 3p: agut(gojo), sharap(nav), halep(krunic) W
10/11 kubot (groth) L
10/17 zheng (diyas) W
10/8 zheng-diyas 20' over W
2/6 vesnina (v-williams) L
10/11 davis (u-radwanska) W
FOOTBALL: re picked-up flag: didnt think should have been called in first place, the receiver had his hand on or grabbing the facemask of the defender, who imo put his hands out to side in part to demonstrate he wasn't holding the other guy. he did not cause the guy not to catch the pass, and the receiver borderline infracting himself.
https://mtc.cdn.vine.co/r/videos/33...p4?versionId=BJ.aaHGqNZHhrqcMHdrWR6WN_S5TgMxG
people talk of fixed games, but it's subtler than that. it's that the refs make sure, in many circumstances, that the side their employer (the NFL) prefers, for marketing or other reasons, doesn't get screwed. this is not the same as guaranteeing they win, it's guaranteeing they dont lose through bad reffing. which is an edge - and an edge that can normally be calculated ahead of time. it makes a lot of sense to consider league-marketing when evaluating nfl for betting opportunities. IF the league's outcomes were scripted, a la pro wrestling, what outcomes would make for a good script? think like that, and you will be alert to another angle that helps you understand what's going on, which is an entertainment product based around an athletic contest. always consider production values when it comes to predicting outcomes. the games aren't fixed, there's enough money for everyone (with the odd exception) but they are often tweaked - and frequently in predictable ways. the nfl knows that people don't like those perceived as bad guys, like stepper-stomper Suh and rapist Winston, and it is not against tweaking things a little to ensure they receive karmic comeuppance. in betting one is responsible for considering all angles, not just those one thinks should properly apply. in the case of dallas detroit, if the league wanted to fix the outcome, surely it would have kept suh banned, right? the subtle, accurate read is the league knows dal is loved and hated (same thing from marketing pov) and it's good for the league when dal is talked about. and jerry jones has invested huge money. then you have a shit team like det with a lousy management and an overt sadistic bully as one of its best players. it's no surprise if there are little small helps given they will go to the home team. this stuff is predictable. not perfectly, but generally. the refs are unlikely to screw brady or rodgers this week. nor payton manning. but taking the long view, they are unlikely to screw good-guy and budding best-qb-of-all-time andrew luck either. reffing should be pretty neutral this weekend, i judge.
thought for the day: if you dont think mass sports is politics by other means, ask yourself how it is that a league that has ryan lindley starting a playoff game has no spot for proven-winner tim tebow. was car-ariz not precisely the kind of game tebow excelled at pulling out? was it not precisely the kind where his running and inspirational leadership could have made the difference? arizona was ahead at ht, 14-13. even mediocre qb play would have resulted in arizona victory. seriously ask yourself: why does ryan lindley have a job but not tim tebow unless there's some other consideration than talent at work? what is it about tebow that some group of people is deliberately blackballing or seeking to avoid?
what use can we make of the above? that all the opps cam newton and carolina left for arizona will be taken advantage of by seattle. russell wilson is like the anti-newton, he makes smart decision after smart decision. we are lucky that all recent car-sea games have been close (and played in car), which pushes against the blowout here, but that's what seems likeliest to me. newton is not a good qb, wilson is a very good qb. newton will have to play 3x better for car to have any shot at seattle. i dont think he will. i think sea will win that game comfortably. i recommend sea on ML (just for calm peaceful feeling) and/or selling points up to 14 or 17 if your book will let you. ... what else?... i like ind. they beat cin easily, and still veiled for those not paying attention is ind left lots of points on table, thanks to drops from hilton, mainly. i think hilton plays better. i think luck is better than manning. i think seven points is too many. i like ind all ways, but ML and teased to 14 in particular. ... would love to see bal upset NE, but when tempted to bet that way, it's what i call an uphill bet. if you bet bal, with points, do you think you're going to win? no...you're HOPING to win. that is what i call betting uphill. dont do it. resist the impulse to bet hopes rather than realities. ... finally there's gb and dallas. imo, this turns on whether rodgers is healthy. if he is, GB wins, and i would just use ML and rest easy. but if he's not, then it becomes closer to 50-50. i dont trust what anyone says about health in cases like this, been burned too many times. i think this is a game to play live once we see what's really going on. even if rodgers is healthy, it seems he has a problem that is easily reinjured. as for dallas, i dont think romo has changed a bit, he cant perform under pressure. their great rb is tired and slowing. their great receiver is an overrated head case - compare to jordy nelson, who do you want? nelson is better. the only reason not to jump on gb is serious question about rodgers' leg.
and the final point to consider, from what we've just said about refs, how does it apply to dal at gb? we've just seen dal get helped at home. i dont see it that way, but most of the world appears to. that's the way the media are selling it. so how much chance do you think dal gets helped again at gb? not much, right? if the refs are going to help anyone, it's probably gb and beloved rodgers, right? and if a dubious call or two favored GB, then that would only be fair karmic retribution, and that's how the masses would see it, and how the media would sell it...right? right. so that's a little chit you throw on the pile AGAINST betting on dal. it's another little risk you incur making that decision. most likely the game will not turn on a reffing call, but if it does, it is likelier that call will favor gb than dallas in my opinion. this kind of analysis rather than blather about fixes is how to look at these questions.
rodgers and mccarthy
http://grantland.com/features/aaron...green-bay-packers-new-age-west-coast-offense/
oregon d vs osu
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/c...onship-game-oregon-defense-versus-ohio-state/
THURSDAY
100/46 2p rao(groth), sharap(svit) W
10/22 4p dodig(seppi), rao(groth), sharap(svit), wawr(muller) L
500/52 halep (zheng) W
MONEY MANAGEMENT: I segment my bets into sharp categories as a way to keep clear in mind whether really like something or dont. The idea is that the crap in the middle, the ones you sorta like for mid-level amounts, are the ones that kill you. so I do it by tens. 1-2, 10-20, 100-200, 500, 1000. And firmly stay out of the spaces in between. If your action gland overheats, drain it with fun/impossible $1 lottery-ticket parlays and teasers. For a roll under 1000, the bets should be strict 1-10-100, but when roll is over 1000, then can let the extra 1-10-100 bleed in. but keep that middle cleared out. you need a 10x difference between levels to stay serious and keep it clear in your head. it's early in tennis season and dont have max confidence, but i'm looking for stuff i can pound for 100-500-1000, so far haven't seen anything, just the one parlay. i dont say this strategy is the only way to do it, of course, but it works well for me, and it might for you.
TENNIS: halep and sharapova looking quite sharp. svit looked good but kerb basically gave her the match in her usual odd way of blowing hot and cold. am just guessing dodig handles seppi. one of the better ways to make money i have found, particularly in college football, is to pair a 50-50 (or two) you have a strong pick(s) on with a number of FMLs you are very sure (80%) will come in there. you get a 3-5x return or more (altho in this case a little less, since i couldnt find other FML to go with it) for maybe 2x the risk of a straight 50-50 pick. groth had a nice win over kubot, came down to 3rd set tiebreak, but there's no way raonic's class won't tell if he's anywhere near to playing his average level. way i see it, we get a nearly 50% ROI for what should be a couple pretty easy matches. the tournaments are far enough along both sharap and rao are invested; and the big one (Aus Open) is still two weeks away, so they won't worry about overextending themselves. neither has any injury, as far as i know, that might cause them to withdraw if they tweak it a little. my main focus is on halep. she's playing unwrapped. was pushed a little in first round, but firing on all cylinders with full power last night. she is playing next week as well, from what i've read, so a little worried about her getting used up before the major. if she wins this first tournament (shenzhen) i would look for her to lose early at sydney, that is her pattern, and we may be able to cash a nice dog ticket. that's thinking ahead, we'll see how the rest of this tournament goes, but really she should make final and play kvit, whether she beats her or not. she should beat zheng easily enough. i dont really play games in tennis or sides in fball, i think it's much easier to string together MLs than guess how many points some team will win by.
bill walsh ideas
http://smartfootball.blogspot.in/2007/08/bill-walsh-method-for-game-planning.html
TENNIS: lose on dodig, had breaks in both sets but gave them back. halep line comes up mid-afternoon, i take it for 500/52. halep won in an hour yesterday, zheng has played three straight 3-set matches. she should be a little tired and is not nearly good enough to do more than take a stray set from halep. the crowd will be on her side. if halep had any injury or any questionable incentive, this would not be worth making, but i judge she will want to make the final against kvitova, most likely opponent. That will be a good early measure of strength, and if there's to be a letdown, it's likelier to come next week at Sydney, the week before the Australian Open.
sfgate on being a bookie
http://www.sfgate.com/entertainment...kie-The-highs-and-lows-of-dealing-5999927.php
TENNIS: win on halep. she's looking near top, in great shape, just missing a little, otherwise near peak. zheng looks very good for a young one, she will be on the rise. groth played as well as he could, serving atom balls and even returning well, but ultimately, he was doing it with serves and mirrors and was found out in two tiebreaks. few hours and sharapova will play young svitolina, and hopefully defeat her, with about the same ease h had over zheng. ... yep, sharap wins easy, so parlay is in. saw some bacsinszky, looked very good, powerful and aggressive against kvitova.
gb's o-line
http://grantland.com/features/green-bay-packers-offensive-line-aaron-rodgers/
FRIDAY
10/25 2p rao(nish), halep(bacs) W
TENNIS: rao is a big enough dog it's worth a shot. halep probably outduels bacs, but bacs is playing well and the price is not worth going big on.
FOOTBALL: nutshell views of the five games, moving backward from monday. never bet against urban meyer is a solid principle. same for chip kelly. but there are situations... mariota is better than osu's backup. get a 50% return for ore winning game. going to go 500 or 1000 on this myself, but no need to do that until the last minute. i believe it is far better to wait until last minute to dead-bet than try to get best lines. it is easier to beat football playing teasers and ML than plain sides. i would rather pay more, even much more, to get the number where i think it's 80% likely to come in than to get a higher return for something that's 50-50. if the linesmakers know what they're doing, then why would one want either side of the line in the 90% of cases where one didn't have a strong opinion? ORE ML is the strongest bet of the weekend, i say. all the nobs have seen all these +200 or +250 dogs cash, and they think they're going to hop on that train for the NC. do you think that will work? if were to do a straight bet it would be under, but would still prefer to tease this (contrary to what sharps say you should do - never tease college or high totals) along with one or two others. i like IND ml. why not a breakthrough game? i will play it strong this year, and if it loses, i will play it again next year. luck is a better qb than manning right now. like ind all ways but ML and teased over 14 best. dal gb should only be played live because of the real chance that rodgers' leg hampers him. if he were healthy, pound gb. romo/garrett are as fake as ever, dont be taken in by media blather. but if rodgers is injured, dal can win because they can generate at least a little offense, and we dont want big money riding on matt flynn backup. for me, this is just a game to enjoy and bet live if/once we see what's really up with rodgers. seattle - there's only one way to go here and that's seattle. it's 50-50 which team newton puts more points on the board for. i dont have any clever insights, it simply has every appearance of a game that grinds toward a cumulative blowout or is a blowout from the first play. i dont trust newton at all, certainly not if he needs to come from behind. the only problem is 80% of public will see this the same way, so how to bet it? Two ways: on the ML. Or sell points. Always ask yourself when betting, particularly NFL: which outcome would screw the most people? Particularly in big or primtime games. Carolina covering would screw a lot of people. If it is the blowout most expect, you're safe selling points up to 14, to get odds on. That's worth more than the tiny risk it comes in right on 10 or 11. And if you're wrong, you lose the same amount. And if you bet ML, you're protected against car coming anywhere within 12 points of Sea but not winning. I just dont see any way car wins this, given smart Wilson vs Superdummy Newton. of course, it's nfl, so no result can truly be surprising, but that's why take the ML for 20% return, or use in parlay. bal-ne, have to think NE on ML is way to go here. bal is a playoff team, and so always dangerous, but NE has executed as well as i've seen a pro team execute in games this year, and they should outscore baltimore. so my plays will be combos or straights on these: if you're going for a win: ORE ML. Love it. SEA ML. Love it. if you're going for a return: IND ML - love it. SEA -14 (sell for odds on, ie better return). for TEASE: ne (-1 or +4) and ind (14 or 17), ore total UNDER 84+. i do not agree with teasing down from numbers in 10-14 range, you are just asking to be burned, so many nfl games end in not just 3-4 but 1-2. all you need is one screwup at start of game, and the heavy fav is playing from behind and either loses or spends all game getting in position to win at the very end by small number. the ML clarifies things tremendously, dog or fav. move the number to where you're 80% sure you're going to win - OR have a big return that justifies the risk - like IND simply winning at denver, which can very easily happen.
TENNIS: win on rao. that was a ridiculous line, it should have been 120/120 not nish heavily favored. it was a pure tossup as the result showed. i got shy on halep, turned out to be easy. she has been death in that range, anything 1.2 to 1.3. regret not putting another 500/125 but bacs looked good and still unsure about a letdown. now she is supposed to be playing sydney next week. she came through shenzhen easily, with no injuries at all, and no real stress from set play. but given her history must be very careful backing her off a win, in fact i probably will not but will put that money on her future to win aus open, which is sitting at 9 right now. (+800).
SATURDAY:
10/85 5p benc(gav), kuz(keys), pvic(gajd), nara(kouk), larss(orma) L
FOOTBALL: Like north dak state. lots of blather about their opponent, same with baltimore. overreaction to last week, go with pats on ML. go with sea on ML or any other way. i like 500/675 3p: ne, sea, ore.
TENNIS: raining in australia, finally lets up for kuz match. notice that halep says she was a little sick before her final. i dont really believe that, i think she is setting herself up with an excuse to retire or withdraw in sydney, and will play that way.
SUNDAY
10/21 posp(seppi), a-rad(corn), beck(cepe) [carried over to wk2]
[week 1: +134]
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