IN-GAME ANALYSIS: linemakers have tended to underrate venus. but her problems are due to health alone. not like she forgot how to win or lost any power. she breaks arad at love to start the day's matches. VENUS-ARAD not offered live but other three will be.
9/188 10p: berd(stakh), fed(gasq), alm(r-v), andsn(troi), kvic(harr), ferr(tmic), kvit(nav), safa(pvic), azar(woz), sharap(ryb) L
IN-GAME: ok, the above is more out of boredom, so qualifies as a longshot action play, just to get things started, with a false step like a running back. we'll get pinked, then we'll respond with haymakers all day long... "knowing how to win" it sounds like such bs. but it's very real. if you watch these matches you can see the difference between winners, who know how to close points and matches, and risers who haven't yet learned or losers who do not. ... I don't know how to formulate this correctly but it seems to be true, per the Williams match: power + sufficient control beats control + not much power most of the time. It's better to have power than control. You can't win purely with power, but it seems like it's easier to develop control than to increase power. ... VENUS does it. my leans were both correct, dog and over. ... i'm actually underbetting - not making enough or large enough bets. that's unusual. as you know, 90% of time it's the other way. azar 63... after one set she's looking good. funny dispute, with both players angry, azar screwed, woz cursing. it's going as thought, the diff is azar power. woz is playing well. it's very windy, which is not helping azar. cold, windy tournament this year, which is strange cuz it's not that far from hot last week in dubai. good display by azar, beating a quality opponent. she will face venus next, and i think she will win. they're similar players, but i think azar has a definite edge. she's not missing, playing with good power, and her attitude is solid. venus has to be a little tired, i would think. but that's tomorrow.. much more yet today.
100/125 2p kvit(nav), kvic(harr) L
RUNNING ANALYSIS: i'm betting with the line. nav has beat kvit the last 2x. the line has something in mind or the number would be much closer to pick em. so i'll try that line, and add to it karlovic with his monster serve over harrison coming off upset of dimitrov. some concern kvic wont be motivated after winning last week, but if that's the case early, it will be apparent and i'll get off the parlay, assuming it's alive at that point.
FUTURES (ACAPULCO): sharap 1.5, bacs 5, gcia 8, puig 13, larss 17, lucic 26
VALUE: still on sharap. id expected it to go under 1.5, still there. only one i see with a shot is garcia. bacs qualifies too but i have a feeling it will be garcia if anyone upsets. and i dont think that will happen, but if i hedge my 260, that's who it'll be on. but maybe let it run one more match. the rest i dont think have any chance. larss underpowered, lucic is ok but not going to win. puig sprays like a tomcat.
ANALYSIS: kvit wins first 12 points. hmm.... the line proves right, at least at start. then amazing turn to nav in second set, in a flash she's up 50. not sure what happened there, turned away, a whole set disappeared. have to scramble live if this is going to continue or 100 down the drain.. might be good for future on azar if kvit loses but dont want to blow a good deal on kvit. made call to hedge out 150/93 on nav on bp in second game, appears right call at 03. this could still turn again, but at this point a nice 20 loss would be acceptable. not sure what happened, was half watching and the sound went out as they switched channels. hate stuff like this out of nowhere. no idea how kvit turned off. it's not a true hedge either, cuz it requires kvic to win. it's a genuine risk of losing 250 trying to get 100 back. if this flips again, could well wind up wishing had taken the 100 hit. still, some value in azar playing nav rather than kvit, was part of the reason i hit nav. more afraid of azar losing to power than technique, altho nav is not exactly a light hitter. but i like my chances with azar over venus then nav. hopefully nav can hold on here now. LIVE 30/89 kvit. most diff circumstances, feed bad, no audio, capped live lines. missed 10/100 live for 20, much worse price. just trying.. at worst lock in a 50 loss or so, and i get nav moving on instead of kvit. very difficult today. unbelievabley kvit back on serve. so both my live bets were probably correct, but my MISS was not buying 25/125 after set one. could have avoided all this. at this point, no idea what's going to happen. 34 on serve, kvit to serve. live 2.18/1.65. nav does it. well that was getting roughed up in a dark alley. still cut my losses over 50%. could have done better, could have done worse. it may work out for the best in the end as i dont think nav can beat azar, who is not spraying the way kvit did here. still not sure why it turned so rapidly in second set. gets on serve, then broken again and loses. strange match. hard to call. ...final DOHA match is safa-pvic, should be safa. staying off it, though.
100/50 karlovic (harr) L
100/29 robredo (olivo) W
13/172 9p: robr(oliv), nish(dolg), andsn(troi), kvic(harr), ferr(tomic), safa(pvic), sharap(ryb), gcia(lucic), puig(karant) L
POST-ANALYSIS: safa whips pvic. have to like how this has shaped up. i think azar is the clear fav to win it now. ... acapulco tonight winners should be all favs. all four women and the men too. ... gotta say, puig karatant was probably the worst pro tennis match i've seen in five years. beyond terrible. the quality of play is generally pretty high these days, but this was awful stuff. not sure why they had it live, but it let me escape 13 loss to 7 profit.
20/64 5p: kvic(harr), ferr(tomic), sharap(ryb), gcia(lucic), FRI azar(venus) L
FRIDAY
PRE-ANALYSIS: it's down to four. semis in DOHA. sitting strong with AZAR 100/600 future. only one i got. she should be favored in both her remaining matches. first up she plays VENUS. she is favored at 1.5. that's good value on azar i think. not that it's a great bargain, it's fair. azar and venus play same type of game, but azar is better at it, at this point. i think venus will be a little tired to keep up. she will have to play at a higher level than she has and sustain it to win. i dont think she can. she'll have her moments but azar should be able to drive her back and forth and win. ... SAFA-NAV - i like the dog here. 1.56/2.67, i think the line is significantly shaded toward safa. nav got to last final before pulling out with sore neck. i will definitely put a little on her here, and if need be hedge it off live. if it gets close, i think nav will win. beating up a tired pvic doesnt prove that much to me. both players are on a roll, i dont think this number is justified on the fav. the over, from 20' to 22, is very likely worth a shot as well. ACAPULCO: sharap wins tonight easy over ryb. bacs winning easily. SHARAP will have to beat garcia and then bacs to win it. should do that. both represent about a 1/6 risk. if sharap is on, she wins without much problem. if she's below avg, could have a problem if one of those two is fired up.
100/175 nav (safa) L
100/47 azar (venus) W
100/25 bacs (karat) W
17/121 7p: djok (berd), nad(delbo), nish(andsn), ferr(harr), nav(safa), azar(venus), bacs(karat) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: been getting a little too clever this week, resulting in a lot of near-misses on parlays. let's keep it simple today, for the semis. i think nav is better than safa. probably goes three. think azar wins straightforwardly, one hard one easier set. maybe the wise thing to do is hedge future, but i'll do that in-game if necessary. bacs i think you can load up. it was only puig's incredibly incompetent play that let karat get thru last round. bacs is hardly great but she's competent and will beat karat easily. that should be more like 1.12 than 1.25. am less confident in sharap after last night, she had a serving meltdown. the future on garcia is 8, which isn't terrible, bacs is 5.5. either of those could beat her she plays again like last night. may throw a 30 on each as a hedge, will think about that. ...in the MEN'S, allt he players i like are playing the top favs. i think they'll lose. i'd like to take delbo vs nadal but he'll just lose in the end. same with berd playing fed. same with andsn playing nish. that fucking harrison, i let my dislike get better of me because i knew he was on bit of roll and managed to squeeze kvic last night. well, it's going to be a good week if azar comes through. "put all your eggs in one basket -- and watch that basket" as someone said (twain). above all else, i need to make the azar bet pay. then can worry about sharap later.
RUNNING ANALYSIS: it's windy again, cant stand that. worst day yet. it does favor nav, i think. it will when they start. appeared to help her yesterday in comeback over kvit. DOHA has been unpleasant for the conditions whereas DUBAI was very nice. depressing to see the dark/cool stuff. real tennis doesn't involve wind, but today is going to be WIND TENNIS, which i personally dont like much.
POST-ANALYSIS: flat wrong on nav-safa. the wind seemed to bother nav. she never got aggressive. safa is playing as well as i've seen, not making UE like normal. she will have to be pressured next round, because she's not making errors on her own. she has a real shot at winning this. not sure why nav wasn't playing well today. thought she was figuring out the wind and then going to get aggressive, but she stayed back and just missed all kinds of shots. disappointing match, probably my worst call of the week, and hit it pretty hard. looked like a very live dog going in but it wasnt.
20/54 7p: djok(berd), nad(delbo), nish(andsn), ferr(harr), azar(venus), sharap(gcia) canc., bacs(karat) W adj. /41
podcast: "No Challenges Remaining": tennis discussion (non-betting, but insight into players + tournaments)
http://nochallengesremaining.podbean.com
POST-ANALYSIS: venus extremely sharp set one, looks like it's over. but azarenka does that rare thing: adapts her tactics. starts charging net. it works, and venus begins to fade. great match, venus just got tired as it progressed. azar looks like a champ, only has to get by hot safa now. that will be hard. i think she'll do it. i think they'll go toe to toe as she did here with venus WHOM SHE HAD NEVER BEATEN NOR EVEN WON A SET FROM and safa will blink first. azar is being aggressive. nav played on her back foot today, letting safa get comfortable and drive her around and off the court. azar won't do that, she will be more aggressive than safa, and then the errors will come. that's my read for the final.
FINAL: AZAR-SAFA. have to admit surprise at the opening number. azar 1.385. i expected ~1.6. i expect azar to win, but that is a low number based on how safa has been playing. perhaps the linsmakers know safa is likely to break down under pressure. after all, to their credit, the made azar a < 1.5 favorite when she had never won a set, let alone match, vs venus. anyway, good hedging abounds for those of us with an azar future in hand. always remember: dont get greedy. that's what gets you slaughtered. as long as you are reliably making money, and progress toward your goal, overreaching isn't necessary.
RUNNING: taking 100/58 LIVE on bacs. point before she goes down 02... it's offered live, as long as bacs trails, you can get a decent return. really dont want to drop 200 on bacs but i just cant see her losing to this player. ... back to 22, hit this, easy money, even if only 25% return. it's gonna be gone fast. this is #37 vs about #158.
dimitrov
http://thetennisisland.com/2015/02/26/breaking-bulgarian-an-analysis-of-dimitrovs-top-30-drought/
UGH: huge loss as sharapova pulls out, costing me big on future. have to win azar now or week is a bust. no idea she was sick, no signs yesterday. should have put about 30 on bacs and garcia apiece. ... easy money on bacs as i said, live. karat not quite as bad as i thought but far from good. she gets ball back but has no power.
FUTURE: 264/170 sharapova to win acapulco L
SATURDAY
PRE-ANALYSIS: line has moved back toward SAFA, which makes sense to me. Have been right about line moves all last two weeks, which is good sign. AZAR should win. If she plays aggressively, SAFA will start missing shots and then her confidence will go. ... DJOK should beat FED. This is all I'm playing today, as i see if future will cash. Will do nothing but hedge live if I need to, which hopefully will not. I just cant see SAFA beating AZAR. azar did seem to have a hitch in her leg a couple times, but i dont think that's lasting. she has played 3 sets yesterday, but didnt appear tired, more fired up. azar isn't making UE, and that's when she starts to go mentally. this match will be like yesterday - hot out of the box, with both sides firing. maybe safa has enough 'wad' to take the first set. but in the end it will be azar. i think azar's ability to change tactics shows superior mental ability and flexibility, and i do not think safa has that ability. her mind is on the level of the hair stylist she would probably be if she weren't an athlete. she will do her one thing and go down if it doesn't work. in sports generally, i much prefer to be on the side of the player with the higher IQ. tv announcers focus on the physical and underplay the mental. they are forever talking about athleticism, but what decides more matches is, uh, menticism. gilles simon is a good example of someone who gets an edge from being smarter than other players. well enough blather, let's just play this parlay and go out of these week (well, one day) with a big bang, one way or another. i like all the favs today, except garcia, who i have not seen play. bacs is decent. i think gcia wins, but dont want to back that opinion with money.
100/264 4p: azar(saf), djok(fed), nad(bloq), nish(ferr) L
RUNNING ANALYSIS: funny that parlay equals the amount lost on sharapova. what a painful way to lose. i bet too much on that future, purely to get a larger return. SAFA has never beaten AZAR that i can see (at least not in recent years, it's about 0-6) so let's hope it doesn't start here. but, we can say she is playing as well as we've ever seen her. just dont think it will be enough. the line started about 1.38 went to over 1.5 and ended right at 1.5. And with that, the warmup set is underway... well looks like azar is done. broken down a set with injury, i take 186/82 live. azar had lost one set to safa coming in, in her life. azar may come back but the inj makes it ?? azar had many bp in set one. only cashed one. hate hedging but not going to sit by and throw away 200 without getting something back on it. worst of all the feeds are complete shit today, cant even really see what's going on.
FUTURE: 100/600 azarenka to win doha L
POST-ANALYSIS: azar was a little stiff in legs. safa played well, but next time they play it'll be right back to azar kicking her ass. azar left a boatload of break points. there's no meaning to this victory other than azar was a little more tired/injured than i thought. tough one.
200/20 nadal (bloq) W
NOTE: the principle of not betting against ferrer was in full play last night, as he beat nishikori.
SUNDAY
Not much going today unless you like nadal at 10:1 to beat Monaco, who's no slouch. Ends up a highly disappointing week. Two nicely set futures fall apart late, and because we got greedy, we went down with the ship. The right play was probably to put 200 on hot SAFA in the final. It's very difficult to give up your hopes for the big score and settle for a modest victory, but that inability usually burns us in the end, as it did here. Coming week will be less intense, but we'll pick it up when we get to Indian Wells next week.
[week #8: -461]
cum. 2015: +342
9/188 10p: berd(stakh), fed(gasq), alm(r-v), andsn(troi), kvic(harr), ferr(tmic), kvit(nav), safa(pvic), azar(woz), sharap(ryb) L
IN-GAME: ok, the above is more out of boredom, so qualifies as a longshot action play, just to get things started, with a false step like a running back. we'll get pinked, then we'll respond with haymakers all day long... "knowing how to win" it sounds like such bs. but it's very real. if you watch these matches you can see the difference between winners, who know how to close points and matches, and risers who haven't yet learned or losers who do not. ... I don't know how to formulate this correctly but it seems to be true, per the Williams match: power + sufficient control beats control + not much power most of the time. It's better to have power than control. You can't win purely with power, but it seems like it's easier to develop control than to increase power. ... VENUS does it. my leans were both correct, dog and over. ... i'm actually underbetting - not making enough or large enough bets. that's unusual. as you know, 90% of time it's the other way. azar 63... after one set she's looking good. funny dispute, with both players angry, azar screwed, woz cursing. it's going as thought, the diff is azar power. woz is playing well. it's very windy, which is not helping azar. cold, windy tournament this year, which is strange cuz it's not that far from hot last week in dubai. good display by azar, beating a quality opponent. she will face venus next, and i think she will win. they're similar players, but i think azar has a definite edge. she's not missing, playing with good power, and her attitude is solid. venus has to be a little tired, i would think. but that's tomorrow.. much more yet today.
100/125 2p kvit(nav), kvic(harr) L
RUNNING ANALYSIS: i'm betting with the line. nav has beat kvit the last 2x. the line has something in mind or the number would be much closer to pick em. so i'll try that line, and add to it karlovic with his monster serve over harrison coming off upset of dimitrov. some concern kvic wont be motivated after winning last week, but if that's the case early, it will be apparent and i'll get off the parlay, assuming it's alive at that point.
FUTURES (ACAPULCO): sharap 1.5, bacs 5, gcia 8, puig 13, larss 17, lucic 26
VALUE: still on sharap. id expected it to go under 1.5, still there. only one i see with a shot is garcia. bacs qualifies too but i have a feeling it will be garcia if anyone upsets. and i dont think that will happen, but if i hedge my 260, that's who it'll be on. but maybe let it run one more match. the rest i dont think have any chance. larss underpowered, lucic is ok but not going to win. puig sprays like a tomcat.
ANALYSIS: kvit wins first 12 points. hmm.... the line proves right, at least at start. then amazing turn to nav in second set, in a flash she's up 50. not sure what happened there, turned away, a whole set disappeared. have to scramble live if this is going to continue or 100 down the drain.. might be good for future on azar if kvit loses but dont want to blow a good deal on kvit. made call to hedge out 150/93 on nav on bp in second game, appears right call at 03. this could still turn again, but at this point a nice 20 loss would be acceptable. not sure what happened, was half watching and the sound went out as they switched channels. hate stuff like this out of nowhere. no idea how kvit turned off. it's not a true hedge either, cuz it requires kvic to win. it's a genuine risk of losing 250 trying to get 100 back. if this flips again, could well wind up wishing had taken the 100 hit. still, some value in azar playing nav rather than kvit, was part of the reason i hit nav. more afraid of azar losing to power than technique, altho nav is not exactly a light hitter. but i like my chances with azar over venus then nav. hopefully nav can hold on here now. LIVE 30/89 kvit. most diff circumstances, feed bad, no audio, capped live lines. missed 10/100 live for 20, much worse price. just trying.. at worst lock in a 50 loss or so, and i get nav moving on instead of kvit. very difficult today. unbelievabley kvit back on serve. so both my live bets were probably correct, but my MISS was not buying 25/125 after set one. could have avoided all this. at this point, no idea what's going to happen. 34 on serve, kvit to serve. live 2.18/1.65. nav does it. well that was getting roughed up in a dark alley. still cut my losses over 50%. could have done better, could have done worse. it may work out for the best in the end as i dont think nav can beat azar, who is not spraying the way kvit did here. still not sure why it turned so rapidly in second set. gets on serve, then broken again and loses. strange match. hard to call. ...final DOHA match is safa-pvic, should be safa. staying off it, though.
100/50 karlovic (harr) L
100/29 robredo (olivo) W
13/172 9p: robr(oliv), nish(dolg), andsn(troi), kvic(harr), ferr(tomic), safa(pvic), sharap(ryb), gcia(lucic), puig(karant) L
POST-ANALYSIS: safa whips pvic. have to like how this has shaped up. i think azar is the clear fav to win it now. ... acapulco tonight winners should be all favs. all four women and the men too. ... gotta say, puig karatant was probably the worst pro tennis match i've seen in five years. beyond terrible. the quality of play is generally pretty high these days, but this was awful stuff. not sure why they had it live, but it let me escape 13 loss to 7 profit.
20/64 5p: kvic(harr), ferr(tomic), sharap(ryb), gcia(lucic), FRI azar(venus) L
FRIDAY
PRE-ANALYSIS: it's down to four. semis in DOHA. sitting strong with AZAR 100/600 future. only one i got. she should be favored in both her remaining matches. first up she plays VENUS. she is favored at 1.5. that's good value on azar i think. not that it's a great bargain, it's fair. azar and venus play same type of game, but azar is better at it, at this point. i think venus will be a little tired to keep up. she will have to play at a higher level than she has and sustain it to win. i dont think she can. she'll have her moments but azar should be able to drive her back and forth and win. ... SAFA-NAV - i like the dog here. 1.56/2.67, i think the line is significantly shaded toward safa. nav got to last final before pulling out with sore neck. i will definitely put a little on her here, and if need be hedge it off live. if it gets close, i think nav will win. beating up a tired pvic doesnt prove that much to me. both players are on a roll, i dont think this number is justified on the fav. the over, from 20' to 22, is very likely worth a shot as well. ACAPULCO: sharap wins tonight easy over ryb. bacs winning easily. SHARAP will have to beat garcia and then bacs to win it. should do that. both represent about a 1/6 risk. if sharap is on, she wins without much problem. if she's below avg, could have a problem if one of those two is fired up.
100/175 nav (safa) L
100/47 azar (venus) W
100/25 bacs (karat) W
17/121 7p: djok (berd), nad(delbo), nish(andsn), ferr(harr), nav(safa), azar(venus), bacs(karat) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: been getting a little too clever this week, resulting in a lot of near-misses on parlays. let's keep it simple today, for the semis. i think nav is better than safa. probably goes three. think azar wins straightforwardly, one hard one easier set. maybe the wise thing to do is hedge future, but i'll do that in-game if necessary. bacs i think you can load up. it was only puig's incredibly incompetent play that let karat get thru last round. bacs is hardly great but she's competent and will beat karat easily. that should be more like 1.12 than 1.25. am less confident in sharap after last night, she had a serving meltdown. the future on garcia is 8, which isn't terrible, bacs is 5.5. either of those could beat her she plays again like last night. may throw a 30 on each as a hedge, will think about that. ...in the MEN'S, allt he players i like are playing the top favs. i think they'll lose. i'd like to take delbo vs nadal but he'll just lose in the end. same with berd playing fed. same with andsn playing nish. that fucking harrison, i let my dislike get better of me because i knew he was on bit of roll and managed to squeeze kvic last night. well, it's going to be a good week if azar comes through. "put all your eggs in one basket -- and watch that basket" as someone said (twain). above all else, i need to make the azar bet pay. then can worry about sharap later.
RUNNING ANALYSIS: it's windy again, cant stand that. worst day yet. it does favor nav, i think. it will when they start. appeared to help her yesterday in comeback over kvit. DOHA has been unpleasant for the conditions whereas DUBAI was very nice. depressing to see the dark/cool stuff. real tennis doesn't involve wind, but today is going to be WIND TENNIS, which i personally dont like much.
POST-ANALYSIS: flat wrong on nav-safa. the wind seemed to bother nav. she never got aggressive. safa is playing as well as i've seen, not making UE like normal. she will have to be pressured next round, because she's not making errors on her own. she has a real shot at winning this. not sure why nav wasn't playing well today. thought she was figuring out the wind and then going to get aggressive, but she stayed back and just missed all kinds of shots. disappointing match, probably my worst call of the week, and hit it pretty hard. looked like a very live dog going in but it wasnt.
20/54 7p: djok(berd), nad(delbo), nish(andsn), ferr(harr), azar(venus), sharap(gcia) canc., bacs(karat) W adj. /41
podcast: "No Challenges Remaining": tennis discussion (non-betting, but insight into players + tournaments)
http://nochallengesremaining.podbean.com
POST-ANALYSIS: venus extremely sharp set one, looks like it's over. but azarenka does that rare thing: adapts her tactics. starts charging net. it works, and venus begins to fade. great match, venus just got tired as it progressed. azar looks like a champ, only has to get by hot safa now. that will be hard. i think she'll do it. i think they'll go toe to toe as she did here with venus WHOM SHE HAD NEVER BEATEN NOR EVEN WON A SET FROM and safa will blink first. azar is being aggressive. nav played on her back foot today, letting safa get comfortable and drive her around and off the court. azar won't do that, she will be more aggressive than safa, and then the errors will come. that's my read for the final.
FINAL: AZAR-SAFA. have to admit surprise at the opening number. azar 1.385. i expected ~1.6. i expect azar to win, but that is a low number based on how safa has been playing. perhaps the linsmakers know safa is likely to break down under pressure. after all, to their credit, the made azar a < 1.5 favorite when she had never won a set, let alone match, vs venus. anyway, good hedging abounds for those of us with an azar future in hand. always remember: dont get greedy. that's what gets you slaughtered. as long as you are reliably making money, and progress toward your goal, overreaching isn't necessary.
RUNNING: taking 100/58 LIVE on bacs. point before she goes down 02... it's offered live, as long as bacs trails, you can get a decent return. really dont want to drop 200 on bacs but i just cant see her losing to this player. ... back to 22, hit this, easy money, even if only 25% return. it's gonna be gone fast. this is #37 vs about #158.
dimitrov
http://thetennisisland.com/2015/02/26/breaking-bulgarian-an-analysis-of-dimitrovs-top-30-drought/
UGH: huge loss as sharapova pulls out, costing me big on future. have to win azar now or week is a bust. no idea she was sick, no signs yesterday. should have put about 30 on bacs and garcia apiece. ... easy money on bacs as i said, live. karat not quite as bad as i thought but far from good. she gets ball back but has no power.
FUTURE: 264/170 sharapova to win acapulco L
SATURDAY
PRE-ANALYSIS: line has moved back toward SAFA, which makes sense to me. Have been right about line moves all last two weeks, which is good sign. AZAR should win. If she plays aggressively, SAFA will start missing shots and then her confidence will go. ... DJOK should beat FED. This is all I'm playing today, as i see if future will cash. Will do nothing but hedge live if I need to, which hopefully will not. I just cant see SAFA beating AZAR. azar did seem to have a hitch in her leg a couple times, but i dont think that's lasting. she has played 3 sets yesterday, but didnt appear tired, more fired up. azar isn't making UE, and that's when she starts to go mentally. this match will be like yesterday - hot out of the box, with both sides firing. maybe safa has enough 'wad' to take the first set. but in the end it will be azar. i think azar's ability to change tactics shows superior mental ability and flexibility, and i do not think safa has that ability. her mind is on the level of the hair stylist she would probably be if she weren't an athlete. she will do her one thing and go down if it doesn't work. in sports generally, i much prefer to be on the side of the player with the higher IQ. tv announcers focus on the physical and underplay the mental. they are forever talking about athleticism, but what decides more matches is, uh, menticism. gilles simon is a good example of someone who gets an edge from being smarter than other players. well enough blather, let's just play this parlay and go out of these week (well, one day) with a big bang, one way or another. i like all the favs today, except garcia, who i have not seen play. bacs is decent. i think gcia wins, but dont want to back that opinion with money.
100/264 4p: azar(saf), djok(fed), nad(bloq), nish(ferr) L
RUNNING ANALYSIS: funny that parlay equals the amount lost on sharapova. what a painful way to lose. i bet too much on that future, purely to get a larger return. SAFA has never beaten AZAR that i can see (at least not in recent years, it's about 0-6) so let's hope it doesn't start here. but, we can say she is playing as well as we've ever seen her. just dont think it will be enough. the line started about 1.38 went to over 1.5 and ended right at 1.5. And with that, the warmup set is underway... well looks like azar is done. broken down a set with injury, i take 186/82 live. azar had lost one set to safa coming in, in her life. azar may come back but the inj makes it ?? azar had many bp in set one. only cashed one. hate hedging but not going to sit by and throw away 200 without getting something back on it. worst of all the feeds are complete shit today, cant even really see what's going on.
FUTURE: 100/600 azarenka to win doha L
POST-ANALYSIS: azar was a little stiff in legs. safa played well, but next time they play it'll be right back to azar kicking her ass. azar left a boatload of break points. there's no meaning to this victory other than azar was a little more tired/injured than i thought. tough one.
200/20 nadal (bloq) W
NOTE: the principle of not betting against ferrer was in full play last night, as he beat nishikori.
SUNDAY
Not much going today unless you like nadal at 10:1 to beat Monaco, who's no slouch. Ends up a highly disappointing week. Two nicely set futures fall apart late, and because we got greedy, we went down with the ship. The right play was probably to put 200 on hot SAFA in the final. It's very difficult to give up your hopes for the big score and settle for a modest victory, but that inability usually burns us in the end, as it did here. Coming week will be less intense, but we'll pick it up when we get to Indian Wells next week.
[week #8: -461]
cum. 2015: +342
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