week #16 (+1174 in)
MONDAY
STUTTGART PREVIEW: first major clay tournament of the season. weather will be cool, about 65, doesnt look like rain is coming. [INDOORS, d'oh] 32 absolutely packed with top players by comparison with ordinary tournament. serena missing but sharap and halep are there, bookending it, and most of the other top players. makes less sense this week to break down by quarter because the field is so strong. no easy paths. whoever wins will have to play at least three tough matches and more likely four. i think halep will win it, but not for any particular reason beyond the generic, that she's playing really well, already won three tournaments in 2015, and clay is her best surface. to start the clay season in europe, just depends who's playing well on clay, and that will become clear in the first two matches. should be many good chances to profit, as this is high $$$ tournament with a car prize for winner, i think.
Here is someone else's preview:
NOTE: That's actually a really helpful preview. I don't think Sharap will win this time. She simply hasn't been playing enough to be in form. The rest of what the guy says makes sense. I do agree that halep could lose to Mugu, but i dont think she will. if she gets by her, she may well win it. one strategy is to play halep future and then hedge it, but i will see how she looks vs mugu - assuming mugu gets by stryc. really, mugu has the best chance to beat halep before the final because she has power. if halep beats her, then she has to beat two good players to make the final. but players who are definitely inferior to her. beating an arad or pvic is not that hard for halep. if she has an avg day, she beat them without too much problem. in the final, she gets sharap, if things go to form, but i dont think they will. that means she could get maka, who beat her in the QF in aus, but whom she beat the next tournament, or she could face kvit, kuz or ivic. an in-form ivic might be a problem, but she hasn't been in top form in a long time. kvit is off injury, cant believe she waltzes thru to final. the others just aren't regular enough to trouble halep. more i look at it, if halep beats mugu, she should win. BUT, halep has already had a great year. this is her first matches on clay. she SHOULD be all guns firing, but you just never know, and if she's off, then mugu will expose her.
FUTURE: 200/700 halep to win stuttgart
FUTURE: 100/2600 maka to win stuttgart
100/673 5p: btel(witt), maka(jj), kuz(breng), ivic(gcia), mugu(stryc) L
FUTURES FIRST LISTING: sharap 4, halep 4', kvit 8', ivic 13, woz 15, nav mugu 19, arad 21, maka kerb err 26, jj pvic safa 29, gcia 34, lis 41, kuz 51, benc stryc 67, bthel 101, witt 151, breng diyas 201.
VALUE: maka. maybe value in mugu if you think she upsets halep. halep reverse. ? is who comes out of top half if sharap loses, the value is there. i guess maka.
100/31 det +2' (yank) W
TUESDAY (-69 in)
100/180 3p: nav(erod), ivic(gcia), maka(mattek)
ANALYSIS: mugu is ON. blows out stryc. sets up MUGU-HALEP next round, will be very good. mugu definite chance if halep isn't on, and even if she is. pvic and kuz pulled out. replaced by erod, who plays NAV next. and BRIANTI will substitute for kuz vs BRENG. PROJECTED WINNERS: all favs. maybe dogs BRIANTI and MELNIKOVA worth a shot. ... NAV holds on. this is her problem: she messes around with players and then is out of steam by the end of the week. EROD did play well, nearly won. NAV is developing some ace-ability, but has to learn to close. Save yourself a set of wear and tear by tightening up. When you're up a set and 52 in s2 tb, you have to close it. She does not seem to like to go for the throat. She plays in a way that lets her opponent hang around. Like she prefers keeping her top game in reserve. That's ok if she's winning sets comfortably, but, as here, she often is not.
100/62 maka (mattek) W
WEDNESDAY (-109 in)
100/71 arad (err) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: big match is halep-mugu. many think mugu takes it. i think mugu is a real threat to take set one, but i think halep wins. line slightly to h overnight. that's the last match of the day, and there are only five matches PROJECTED WINNERS: ARAD, LIS, KERB, BENC, HALEP. ... arad serves better, just has small edges around over err, whose serve is just too weak. LIS has been in form lately, altho i would not bet her in this case, as diyas can play well. kerb should win, but no value at 1.11, not even in parlay. benc is better than goerg, but younger, and goerg has won this tournament, probably her best win, when she was at her peak. still think benc is more regular and wins, good prices at 1.8. finally halep and mugu. mugu playing well, halep off a couple weeks. any kind of slow start and mugu will take first set, maybe even match. mugu has beaten halep this year, and looked great. but this is halep's surface. even if she loses first set, i think she wins match. this figures to be about like mattek-maka yesterday. play the over.
100/83 benc (goerg) W
100/80 lis-diyas 19' OVER L
100/54 halep (mugu) W
100/74 halep-mugu 19' OVER W
POST-ANALYSIS: err takes it. arad breaks her serve but cant hold own. figured out she needed to hit harder, but was too late making change. her tricks dont work against err like avg player. err has own tricks. ... and of course i stay off diyas and she blows out lis. just on wrong foot today.
100/14 kerb (glatch) W
POST-ANALYSIS: pretty easy for kerb, but playing and ITF opponent. ... goerg blows 3 match points, benc proves tougher. ... now for halep-mugu. line has moved small but steady toward halep over last 24 hours.
100/80 LIVE halep (mugu) 01 W
200/108 LIVE mugu (halep) 6311 L
LIVE: appears halep tweaked something, i sell out to get something out of my roughly 500 on the line (incl future). naturallly halep holds and breaks... and then take set 61. that was as out of nowhere as we'll see. but mugu does the roller coaster fairly often. we'll see if this is a true turn in set three. ... great finish by halep. mugu has the power to dominate points but not the finesse, gives too many points away. halep played great defensive tennis, keeping her in many point and the match. very few players would have gotten to much of what mugu was hitting. ... very rough day betting, all can say is at least halep future is still alive. rueful not that i bought the mugu but that i bought it at the absolute low point.
100/71 lad (sf) L
THURSDAY (-303 in)
10/330 5p: kvit(breng), witt(gcia), diyas(err), maka(melnik), woz(safa) L
100/290 diyas (err) L
100/91 diyas-err 19' over L
100/125 woz (safa) W
100/179 witt (gcia) L
100/39 2p: kvit(breng), maka(melik) L
POST-ANALYSIS: didnt see breng, but upsets kvit off injury. miss another huge dog. diyas just not slick enough for err, who pulls away, costing me total too. witt comes close but fails. just a shit week. only thing can save it is halep winning, and will just get me back to where i started. and is far from sure thing, as will have to get thru sharap in final most likely, if can get by err and nav. let's hope woz can take out safa... Actually, forgot i had future on maka too. that's valuable. if sharap is at all off, then this should be a maka-halep final, both of which i have futures on. sharap hasn't played in a while. maka will at the least give her a very stern test, assuming she gets by heating kerber. .. and she does not. i mark this as the informal point at which HALEP becomes the #2 player in the world. ... last up, NAV-BENC. i expect nav to do it.
QF PREVIEW: KERB-MAKA: expect maka to win in a struggle. ... BRENG-GCIA - i go for breng in upset. worth a shot. not a big believer in gcia. ... WOZ-(NAV) - should be a real battle. will watch, not bet. suspect woz may do it. ... HALEP-ERR - halep does it. similar to err-arad, halep has more power and control than err, a glove match, one is just bigger than the other, and contains it. err is very subtle player, but halep has significantly more power, as good touch, quicker movement, better serve. if halep plays avg game, she wins. arad was breaking err serve pretty easily, and halep will find it even easier to eat. in fact, even err's first serve is edible. ... going to be a maka-halep final, book it. despite a horribly shitty week, the loss of sharpova means have a real chance to make a bunch or get out even.
100/98 cle-bos 204' over L
FRIDAY (-688 in)
200/52 halep (err) W
100/165 maka (kerb) L
100/900 3p: maka(kerb), halep(err), breng(gcia) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: kerb has 6-4 record vs maka, including wins in 2014. still think maka does it. at the least, the line is overrating kerb's victory over sharap. it wasn't that kerb played great, altho she played better in the final set, it was that sharap started missing. i think this win was all due to sharap, and almost nothing due to kerb. sharap didn't have any harder shots tomake in set 2 and 3 than in 1, she just missed them. inexplicably. if maka plays just a little better than she has so far, i think she can take kerber. no way in the world i would bet on kerber at nearly 2:1 over a maka, so that means maka is a good bet. the minute kerb gets some pressure she misses. even without pressure she misses plenty. she'll have confidence off this match, but if maka matches her intensity from start, she should win. ... H i dont think will have trouble with err. breng should hang iwth garcia, maybe upset her. woz 1.8 over nav may win, but i'm staying off that match. nav been great lately. woz coming on some. probably an over is the right way to play, 20-21.
100/74 maka +4 (kerb) L
100/69 woz-nav 20 over L
PRE-ANALYSIS: both of these seem to me very likely wins. woz-nav will be what i call a PBP, a point-by-point slog. i cant see it not being at least 6464. both will win many games. as for maka, i cant see her dropping more than one serve per set. all analysts ive seen are overrating her contribution to victory over sharap, which had far more to do with the latter's energy and preparation than kerb playing great. kerb is still kerb - if she's put under pressure she will spray. i think maka should be favored. she has had a rough go the last few tournaments - pulling out without losing from charleston, costing me a future, and before that losing to pvic playing best of her life, and losing to some other top people. i think she beats kerb outright. what i know is that she will not fade, it will be a struggle the whole way if kerb prevails.
POST-ANALYSIS: halep exactly as expected. err wins like 10% of her second serves. halep never played at full power. even though err broke her and was even up a break in set 2, this match was never in doubt. ... woz blows out nav. think nav was just flat, perhaps a little tired. nav showed in flashes she's better than woz, but just wasn't in the mood today. again, this is why you close out matches early rather than play the extra set as nav did in round one. ... Well fuck me with a tent pole. Flat wrong about maka. zooms to 30 lead, then 36 and blown out. kerb continued to improve from yesterday, when should have been tired and receded. maka did not improve. she has the right idea but just not keeping the shots in bounds. diasastrous week, mitigated only if halep wins this tournament. she would not have beat kerb as playing today. she will have a battle against woz next just to get to final.
FUTURE: 100/2600 maka to win stuttgart L
POST-ANALYSIS: figures, been dodging good dogs all week. if maka had come thru, would have been huge win, but had nothing on brengle except dead parlay. gcia is always a good go against as heavy fav against competent players.
SATURDAY (-1136 in)
100/44 halep (woz) L
100/26 kerb (breng) W
FUTURE: 200/700 halep to win stuttgart L
POST-ANALYSIS: disaster week continues. i missed every single large dog, and there were many. and neither of my "book-it" final made it. woz played very well. should be a real struggle with kerber in finals. halep might have been more aggressive from the start. she didn't turn it up until later in second set, and then ran out of energy. woz almost let her back in by letting her catch her breath at 51. just a rare loss for halep, she formally moves to #2 ranking at the start of the new week.
[-1410 for week / cum. -226 thru 15]
NOTE: less posting next month for unrelated reasons. couple good tournaments but have to be away. will resume full posting with French Open. will make one new post between now and then and add the few picks I make to it. after two terrible weeks, seems good time to take a break.
WEEK #17: KAPLIS comes off layoff and wins in Prague. Doesn't coast; most of her matches go three sets. but her great year continues. ... Meanwhile, SVIT prevails over rising BABOS in Marrakech. ...
WEEK #18: both svit and kaplis turn right around after victories on saturday, fly to spain, get easy wins sunday over their first-round opponents in the 64-field in Madrid. HALEP loses in first round to CORN, her worst result of the year, following on subpar showing in Stuttgart, where she lost to WOZ. With French Open less than month away, Halep has some tuneup work to do on her clay game.
MONDAY
STUTTGART PREVIEW: first major clay tournament of the season. weather will be cool, about 65, doesnt look like rain is coming. [INDOORS, d'oh] 32 absolutely packed with top players by comparison with ordinary tournament. serena missing but sharap and halep are there, bookending it, and most of the other top players. makes less sense this week to break down by quarter because the field is so strong. no easy paths. whoever wins will have to play at least three tough matches and more likely four. i think halep will win it, but not for any particular reason beyond the generic, that she's playing really well, already won three tournaments in 2015, and clay is her best surface. to start the clay season in europe, just depends who's playing well on clay, and that will become clear in the first two matches. should be many good chances to profit, as this is high $$$ tournament with a car prize for winner, i think.
Here is someone else's preview:
NOTE: That's actually a really helpful preview. I don't think Sharap will win this time. She simply hasn't been playing enough to be in form. The rest of what the guy says makes sense. I do agree that halep could lose to Mugu, but i dont think she will. if she gets by her, she may well win it. one strategy is to play halep future and then hedge it, but i will see how she looks vs mugu - assuming mugu gets by stryc. really, mugu has the best chance to beat halep before the final because she has power. if halep beats her, then she has to beat two good players to make the final. but players who are definitely inferior to her. beating an arad or pvic is not that hard for halep. if she has an avg day, she beat them without too much problem. in the final, she gets sharap, if things go to form, but i dont think they will. that means she could get maka, who beat her in the QF in aus, but whom she beat the next tournament, or she could face kvit, kuz or ivic. an in-form ivic might be a problem, but she hasn't been in top form in a long time. kvit is off injury, cant believe she waltzes thru to final. the others just aren't regular enough to trouble halep. more i look at it, if halep beats mugu, she should win. BUT, halep has already had a great year. this is her first matches on clay. she SHOULD be all guns firing, but you just never know, and if she's off, then mugu will expose her.
FUTURE: 200/700 halep to win stuttgart
FUTURE: 100/2600 maka to win stuttgart
100/673 5p: btel(witt), maka(jj), kuz(breng), ivic(gcia), mugu(stryc) L
FUTURES FIRST LISTING: sharap 4, halep 4', kvit 8', ivic 13, woz 15, nav mugu 19, arad 21, maka kerb err 26, jj pvic safa 29, gcia 34, lis 41, kuz 51, benc stryc 67, bthel 101, witt 151, breng diyas 201.
VALUE: maka. maybe value in mugu if you think she upsets halep. halep reverse. ? is who comes out of top half if sharap loses, the value is there. i guess maka.
100/31 det +2' (yank) W
TUESDAY (-69 in)
100/180 3p: nav(erod), ivic(gcia), maka(mattek)
ANALYSIS: mugu is ON. blows out stryc. sets up MUGU-HALEP next round, will be very good. mugu definite chance if halep isn't on, and even if she is. pvic and kuz pulled out. replaced by erod, who plays NAV next. and BRIANTI will substitute for kuz vs BRENG. PROJECTED WINNERS: all favs. maybe dogs BRIANTI and MELNIKOVA worth a shot. ... NAV holds on. this is her problem: she messes around with players and then is out of steam by the end of the week. EROD did play well, nearly won. NAV is developing some ace-ability, but has to learn to close. Save yourself a set of wear and tear by tightening up. When you're up a set and 52 in s2 tb, you have to close it. She does not seem to like to go for the throat. She plays in a way that lets her opponent hang around. Like she prefers keeping her top game in reserve. That's ok if she's winning sets comfortably, but, as here, she often is not.
100/62 maka (mattek) W
WEDNESDAY (-109 in)
100/71 arad (err) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: big match is halep-mugu. many think mugu takes it. i think mugu is a real threat to take set one, but i think halep wins. line slightly to h overnight. that's the last match of the day, and there are only five matches PROJECTED WINNERS: ARAD, LIS, KERB, BENC, HALEP. ... arad serves better, just has small edges around over err, whose serve is just too weak. LIS has been in form lately, altho i would not bet her in this case, as diyas can play well. kerb should win, but no value at 1.11, not even in parlay. benc is better than goerg, but younger, and goerg has won this tournament, probably her best win, when she was at her peak. still think benc is more regular and wins, good prices at 1.8. finally halep and mugu. mugu playing well, halep off a couple weeks. any kind of slow start and mugu will take first set, maybe even match. mugu has beaten halep this year, and looked great. but this is halep's surface. even if she loses first set, i think she wins match. this figures to be about like mattek-maka yesterday. play the over.
100/83 benc (goerg) W
100/80 lis-diyas 19' OVER L
100/54 halep (mugu) W
100/74 halep-mugu 19' OVER W
POST-ANALYSIS: err takes it. arad breaks her serve but cant hold own. figured out she needed to hit harder, but was too late making change. her tricks dont work against err like avg player. err has own tricks. ... and of course i stay off diyas and she blows out lis. just on wrong foot today.
100/14 kerb (glatch) W
POST-ANALYSIS: pretty easy for kerb, but playing and ITF opponent. ... goerg blows 3 match points, benc proves tougher. ... now for halep-mugu. line has moved small but steady toward halep over last 24 hours.
100/80 LIVE halep (mugu) 01 W
200/108 LIVE mugu (halep) 6311 L
LIVE: appears halep tweaked something, i sell out to get something out of my roughly 500 on the line (incl future). naturallly halep holds and breaks... and then take set 61. that was as out of nowhere as we'll see. but mugu does the roller coaster fairly often. we'll see if this is a true turn in set three. ... great finish by halep. mugu has the power to dominate points but not the finesse, gives too many points away. halep played great defensive tennis, keeping her in many point and the match. very few players would have gotten to much of what mugu was hitting. ... very rough day betting, all can say is at least halep future is still alive. rueful not that i bought the mugu but that i bought it at the absolute low point.
100/71 lad (sf) L
THURSDAY (-303 in)
10/330 5p: kvit(breng), witt(gcia), diyas(err), maka(melnik), woz(safa) L
100/290 diyas (err) L
100/91 diyas-err 19' over L
100/125 woz (safa) W
100/179 witt (gcia) L
100/39 2p: kvit(breng), maka(melik) L
POST-ANALYSIS: didnt see breng, but upsets kvit off injury. miss another huge dog. diyas just not slick enough for err, who pulls away, costing me total too. witt comes close but fails. just a shit week. only thing can save it is halep winning, and will just get me back to where i started. and is far from sure thing, as will have to get thru sharap in final most likely, if can get by err and nav. let's hope woz can take out safa... Actually, forgot i had future on maka too. that's valuable. if sharap is at all off, then this should be a maka-halep final, both of which i have futures on. sharap hasn't played in a while. maka will at the least give her a very stern test, assuming she gets by heating kerber. .. and she does not. i mark this as the informal point at which HALEP becomes the #2 player in the world. ... last up, NAV-BENC. i expect nav to do it.
QF PREVIEW: KERB-MAKA: expect maka to win in a struggle. ... BRENG-GCIA - i go for breng in upset. worth a shot. not a big believer in gcia. ... WOZ-(NAV) - should be a real battle. will watch, not bet. suspect woz may do it. ... HALEP-ERR - halep does it. similar to err-arad, halep has more power and control than err, a glove match, one is just bigger than the other, and contains it. err is very subtle player, but halep has significantly more power, as good touch, quicker movement, better serve. if halep plays avg game, she wins. arad was breaking err serve pretty easily, and halep will find it even easier to eat. in fact, even err's first serve is edible. ... going to be a maka-halep final, book it. despite a horribly shitty week, the loss of sharpova means have a real chance to make a bunch or get out even.
100/98 cle-bos 204' over L
FRIDAY (-688 in)
200/52 halep (err) W
100/165 maka (kerb) L
100/900 3p: maka(kerb), halep(err), breng(gcia) L
PRE-ANALYSIS: kerb has 6-4 record vs maka, including wins in 2014. still think maka does it. at the least, the line is overrating kerb's victory over sharap. it wasn't that kerb played great, altho she played better in the final set, it was that sharap started missing. i think this win was all due to sharap, and almost nothing due to kerb. sharap didn't have any harder shots tomake in set 2 and 3 than in 1, she just missed them. inexplicably. if maka plays just a little better than she has so far, i think she can take kerber. no way in the world i would bet on kerber at nearly 2:1 over a maka, so that means maka is a good bet. the minute kerb gets some pressure she misses. even without pressure she misses plenty. she'll have confidence off this match, but if maka matches her intensity from start, she should win. ... H i dont think will have trouble with err. breng should hang iwth garcia, maybe upset her. woz 1.8 over nav may win, but i'm staying off that match. nav been great lately. woz coming on some. probably an over is the right way to play, 20-21.
100/74 maka +4 (kerb) L
100/69 woz-nav 20 over L
PRE-ANALYSIS: both of these seem to me very likely wins. woz-nav will be what i call a PBP, a point-by-point slog. i cant see it not being at least 6464. both will win many games. as for maka, i cant see her dropping more than one serve per set. all analysts ive seen are overrating her contribution to victory over sharap, which had far more to do with the latter's energy and preparation than kerb playing great. kerb is still kerb - if she's put under pressure she will spray. i think maka should be favored. she has had a rough go the last few tournaments - pulling out without losing from charleston, costing me a future, and before that losing to pvic playing best of her life, and losing to some other top people. i think she beats kerb outright. what i know is that she will not fade, it will be a struggle the whole way if kerb prevails.
POST-ANALYSIS: halep exactly as expected. err wins like 10% of her second serves. halep never played at full power. even though err broke her and was even up a break in set 2, this match was never in doubt. ... woz blows out nav. think nav was just flat, perhaps a little tired. nav showed in flashes she's better than woz, but just wasn't in the mood today. again, this is why you close out matches early rather than play the extra set as nav did in round one. ... Well fuck me with a tent pole. Flat wrong about maka. zooms to 30 lead, then 36 and blown out. kerb continued to improve from yesterday, when should have been tired and receded. maka did not improve. she has the right idea but just not keeping the shots in bounds. diasastrous week, mitigated only if halep wins this tournament. she would not have beat kerb as playing today. she will have a battle against woz next just to get to final.
FUTURE: 100/2600 maka to win stuttgart L
POST-ANALYSIS: figures, been dodging good dogs all week. if maka had come thru, would have been huge win, but had nothing on brengle except dead parlay. gcia is always a good go against as heavy fav against competent players.
SATURDAY (-1136 in)
100/44 halep (woz) L
100/26 kerb (breng) W
FUTURE: 200/700 halep to win stuttgart L
POST-ANALYSIS: disaster week continues. i missed every single large dog, and there were many. and neither of my "book-it" final made it. woz played very well. should be a real struggle with kerber in finals. halep might have been more aggressive from the start. she didn't turn it up until later in second set, and then ran out of energy. woz almost let her back in by letting her catch her breath at 51. just a rare loss for halep, she formally moves to #2 ranking at the start of the new week.
[-1410 for week / cum. -226 thru 15]
NOTE: less posting next month for unrelated reasons. couple good tournaments but have to be away. will resume full posting with French Open. will make one new post between now and then and add the few picks I make to it. after two terrible weeks, seems good time to take a break.
WEEK #17: KAPLIS comes off layoff and wins in Prague. Doesn't coast; most of her matches go three sets. but her great year continues. ... Meanwhile, SVIT prevails over rising BABOS in Marrakech. ...
WEEK #18: both svit and kaplis turn right around after victories on saturday, fly to spain, get easy wins sunday over their first-round opponents in the 64-field in Madrid. HALEP loses in first round to CORN, her worst result of the year, following on subpar showing in Stuttgart, where she lost to WOZ. With French Open less than month away, Halep has some tuneup work to do on her clay game.
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