2018-19 Season

[BASON]

All plays and thoughts will be in this thread going forward. I will also comment some in Kid's thread as we move forward. Feel free to chime in as you want.

I think the English season starts too soon and I think this will be even more apparent in a WC year. It usually takes a few weeks for teams to really get settled in as teams especially with the transfer window closing so close the start of the season.

Man U/Leicester is a perfect example. Lots of players will be missing on both sides which makes this a tough one to bet. I am not forcing a play here. If I had to bet it I would play the Under, but those that know me, know I do not like betting unders, but this game has 1-0 written all over it. It's important for Man U to win but I think it is likely a snoozer so I will pass.

For tomorrow's play I will go to Germany.

Darmstadt +.5 -140 - Darmstadt has a very good record against St. Pauli who struggles to score (they were the lowest scoring team in the league last year and have not done much to improve). Darmstadt has a nice 12 game unbeaten streak going, so I can easily see a draw here or a 1-0 Darmstadt victory. This league has been extremely unpredictable as evidence by Hamburg getting trounced at home last week, but this looks like a good spot getting the +.5 (I was surprised to get this thought it would be a Pk).

Will have the Premier league up tomorrow. Nothing shouting out at me right now, so nothing big, but I do think so home teams have good chances to pick up points against top teams.

 

[BASON]

Premier League

I have already made some comments about my hesitancy to bet much the first week but I do like some situations tomorrow.

New Castle +.5 -125 - I do not like what is going on with New Castle. They may have the worst owner in all of sports and he is hated by his manager, players and fans. They have done basically nothing to really improve and appear to have simply pocketed the money for staying up. Some rumors that he may be positioning to sell the team, one can only hope. Tottenham though has almost their entire starting team unfit to play. They more or less will have a second team squad starting. New Castle is a very tough team to beat at home so I think Spurs are getting a little too much credit here. Benitez knows he has a great opportunity to get points in this one so hopefully they put aside the distractions and play well.

Wolverhampton Pk -140 - Like Kid, I like the Wolves this season. They are an attacking team as they have a disproportionate number of Portuguese players on this team. Not sure of the actual number, but it is unusual. Everton should be a little more attacking than last year and I expect this to be an entertaining game. If I were to bet an Over this would be the one, but I will take the PK on the home team that more or less dominated the Championship last year.

I am still debating the Chelsea/Huddersfield game. I know Kid likes Chelsea, but I am tempted to take the +1. Chelsea has looked bad in pre season while Huddersfield has done well. They have added some key pieces, some from Germany, and I think they will be better than last year. Similar to New Castle they have a chance to get points against a top team. Will watch this line and update.


Championship

Villa Even - Will stick with them again this week. I like what I saw on the road last week and now they get Wigan at home. Wigan is feeling good but Villa is strong. This team was saved by Billionaire money and seems to have some life in them. Plus we get a good price.


Scotland

Celtic Ov 2.5 -110 - Celtic has a big game coming mid-week in Greece after a disappointing 1-1 draw earlier in the week. They may rest some players but I think this could lead to a more wide open game. Hearts will feel they can win this (they did beat Celtic 4-0 at home to end their huge winning streak) which should lead to some goals. Just a hunch.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Could not agree more with Newcastle as I am on them as well. I have heard they their owners mindset is "how can we stay up while spending the least amount of money possible". Its a damn shame to see because Newcastle used to be a "top 6" club in England. we have similar thoughts on celtic game. Im on hearts already saw that angle the other day and could not pass it up.

 

[BASON]

Man, I am off in Bundesliga 2. Will be laying off that league for a while. Should have just posted Brugge as they won easily.

 

[tt boy]

The last thing we needed was a scoreless 1st half in Scotland..:facepalm:

 

[Subcloser]

Any thoughts on newly promoted teams to the Prem League. I have found fading them in their 1st road contest the past couple years to profitable

 

[BASON]

I like fading them on the road and usually like to play them at home. Sticking with Wolves at home later today.

TT, should have just played Hearts, I know Celtic would be off but I thought they would at least come to play.

I hate this first weekend.

Not playing anything else except Wolves today.

 

[BASON]

Not a great day, but could have been worse.

Thoughts for tomorrow. Got a full house visiting so not much time today and tomorrow.

I told myself I would not play overs the first weekend, but I am changing my mind.

Liverpool Ov 3
Arsenal FH Ov 1 and Ov 3

Will be very surprised if either of these are very low scoring. Just too much attacking talent. Liverpool needs to make an opening statement and I think Arsenal should be improved and City is loaded no matter who plays.


France

Lyon -1.5 - Like the way they have looked and they should make a statement at home. See 3-0.

Usually would be on Bordeaux also as we get a good price at -130, but they have been playing in Euro so I am going to lay off, but they are a very strong home team and Strasburg struggles on the road.


I agree with Kid on the FH over in Arsenal so I added it. I also agree that Burnley may not be nearly as good this year, but no way I trust Southampton as -125 favorites.

 

[BASON]

Spanish Super Cup

Barca/Sevilla Ov 3 - Sevilla took it easy in Europe against a weak opponent knowing they have this one coming up. Barca looked bad in pre-season, but they will put it together for this match. Tempted to take Sevilla +1 as I think they are in better shape after playing 3 Euro games, but I will go with goals here as we should see at least 3.

 

[BASON]

German Super Cup

This game should be somewhat interesting. Frankfurt upset Bayern 3-1 in the League Cup at the end of last year. The Frankfurt coach is now the Bayern coach. Frankfurt did not add much and frankly overachieved last year as the year before they had to fight off relegation. On paper this should be an easy Bayern win, the only thing keeping this from a good size play is the history of this game. Only one team has scored more than 2 goals since 2010 which is evidence that most teams are simply not quite in form and this is treated like a glorified pre-season game. I am sure Bayern wants revenge and I think they win the game, but I would not lay more than 1 goal in this one. Bayern's defense was poor in the WC so not sure how they will look in this one.

 

[BASON]

Man, Aresnal was absolutely terrible today. Was really looking forward to this one and it completely sucked. Emery is not going to be around long if they continue to play like this. Ozil was freaking horrible. I do not think he did one thing right the entire match. He should have been taken off early in the second half. Was like Aubemeyang was not even playing. Announcers on NBC were just completely clueless. Don't care if it is the first game of the year, Arsenal was pathetic and Ozil was a disgrace. I did not see any change in style of play and they get Chelsea next week. Looks like 0-2 start to me. Still could have had a push on the over if Aguero was not such a selfish prick.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Awful performance. I am not sure what arsenals plan was to be honest? City should have had 3 for sure and tough to lose over but man everything you said was spot on.

 

[Penguinfan]

Man, Aresnal was absolutely terrible today. Was really looking forward to this one and it completely sucked. Emery is not going to be around long if they continue to play like this. Ozil was freaking horrible. I do not think he did one thing right the entire match. He should have been taken off early in the second half. Was like Aubemeyang was not even playing. Announcers on NBC were just completely clueless. Don't care if it is the first game of the year, Arsenal was pathetic and Ozil was a disgrace. I did not see any change in style of play and they get Chelsea next week. Looks like 0-2 start to me. Still could have had a push on the over if Aguero was not such a selfish prick.

I'm certainly not one to disagree with you, but I'd like to throw out it was Man City they were playing and not Huddersfield. Man City is no joke and will beat a lot of teams badly this season. I think Arsenal did not play well enough to believe they have closed the gap at all from last season on the top three teams, but I'm willing to give them more than just one game against one of the premier teams on the planet before I call them a bust.

Agreed, though, Ozil was less than what I expect from him for sure. Like, WTF? Actually, multiple players need to be better and I think they will.

Don't write off the Gunners just yet.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Very valid points penfan. Can?t say i disagree. City may be the best team on earth but time will tell.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BASON]

I get it and it was a bit of an overreaction, but City was by no means at their best today an easily won. Arsenal was just not impressive from an attacking perspective and Ozil was simply terrible as he has been for Germany. It is early but they have a long way to go.

And Sevilla misses a penalty for the win. Oh well, decent comeback today to salvage the weekend.

 

[BASON]

I should lay off and take a break tomorrow but going to make a small play.

Cologne -135 - They are set up and favored to go right back up this year and have their first home game. I was dead wrong about Hamburg last week so hopefully I am right about Cologne tomorrow. Just an action play but they should win this game. Their new coach loves to attack so they should score some goals this year. Over is tempting but I will go with the home team.

 

[tt boy]

so what's on the card today B ??

 

[BASON]

Not the best card today as some first round scores keep some plays from being stronger than they are but there are some dynamite (get it!) plays.

Dynamo Kiev Ev - Will almost always take a Ukranian team at home at this price. Was a 1-1 draw the first game so they are happy with a 0-0 draw which is why the price is a little short and the total is 2, but they are in very good form especially at home so will gladly take them at even money.

Dinamo Zagreb -120 - Would love this play if they did not win 2-0 on the road which was a big surprise to me but will still take them as they should get some good counter chances.

Spartak Moscow -125 - They lost 3-2 on the road so I think they will get the win today. Always tough to play in Russia.

Tempted to take Athens and Fenerbahce at home but do not really trust either. Will be an interesting day as moving on is big money for many of these teams.

 

[BASON]

I am laying off the Cup games today in England. Just not enough games under their belts to evaluate some of these lower division teams. The Villa over is tempting but they will be resting a lot of starters.

 

[BASON]

If the idiot from Spartak does not get a ridiculous red card in the FH we would have went 3-0. Profitable day though.

UEFA Super Cup

Real Madrid Pk-125 - I will take this price all day long in this game. Usually I would wait for the lineups here, since some players may sit, but I like this number. If Griezmann and Hernandez do not start I may add a little tomorrow. I think Real will field a strong squad with the new coach. If he stays healthy, I am looking for a huge year from Gareth Bale. He has been in Ronaldo's shadow since he got there and now he has the chance to prove he is the man. Most forget how awesome he was his last year in England. I expect him to score tomorrow. I know this may sound stupid to some but I think this team does not lose much without Ronaldo. Asensio is one of my favorite young players in the world, and without Ronaldo, he and Bale have a chance to shine. This would be 3 Super Cups in a row for Real (and 6 in a row for the CL winner) and I think they are even further motivated by playing their league rival.