2018-19 Season

[Crookity]

DZ, we are definitely on the same page as it is likely my only play on Sunday. Have to keep riding Frankfurt until they slow down. They are as hot as anyone in the world and scoring goals at an unexpected pace. I am the first to admit I was wrong about them this year. They have been a great money maker the last month in the league and in Euro. Still undervalued at -120.

For tomorrow I am on another hot team

New Castle Pk-125/+134 - New Castle is hot with three wins in a row so I will gladly take them at home against a poor West Ham side. You have the added benefit that West Ham's record at St. James is pathetic. They have one win in the last 14 there and have lost the last 3 against them. New Castle has a lot of confidence and I see them winning this one. The Pk line is the safe play but I like taking the plus money and will likely use them in a parlay.


Since I already showed my hand

Frankfurt -120 - Just an automatic play for me until Frankfurt comes back to earth. They are playing extremely well and see no reason for it to stop this weekend as they had an easy home victory over Marseille in Euro.

Hey Bason, anything cooking for you in the EPL today?

 

[BASON]

I thought I posted yesterday, but I guess I forgot to hit submit. I can not do anything on the phone, sucks getting old.

Arsenal Pk +117 - Really, Man U is still getting respect form the bookmakers even though they look like a middle of the pack team. They just can not put it together in the league and I think Mourinho should have been fired weeks ago. Maybe they play well today, but I would not bet on it. Arsenal looks good to me at this number.

Chelsea -168 - Hate laying number like this on the road, but the Wolves are in the toilet so I will keep playing against them until they appear to turn it around.

For the hell of it since I have some hockey money from last night, I will tie the above two with Everton and Spurs in a parlay.

 

[BASON]

Premier

West Ham +116 - hot and cold, but they appear to bet hot right now and CP struggles on the road.

Cardiff +173/Pk+105 - purely a play against Southhampton who is without a win in 11 games and Cardiff is finally playing well.

Bundesliga

Bayern -2.5 or 3/Ov 4 - I love Nurnberg but they totally suck on the road. Lost 7-0, 6-0 and 5-2 to all the strong sides they played on the road. Given up 22 goals in 6 games on the road and an average of 4.5 goals. Now I have been anti Bayern most of the year and that really has not changed, but you can not ignore how bad Nurnberg has been on the road. For those that do not follow Germany, this is the Bavarian Derby and one of the most historic match ups in German soccer history. This series started in 1901 and has been a great rivalry, but Nurnberg has been bad for years so most do not know about it. I will be up very early cooking a German feast and the wheat beers will be flowing, but my boys do not have the talent to stay with this team. This may be exactly what Bayern needs to get out of their funk. You simply can not ignore Nurnberg's horrible road form. I will be wearing the Nurnberg jersey and cheering them on, but my money has to be on Bayern and the over.

Wolfsburg Ov 3 - Hoffenheim has been a scoring machine on the road as the last 6 have produced at least 3 goals. Wolfsburg is a total crap shoot this year, but they will be forced to play at Hoffenheim's pace so I see at least 3 in this one.

Maybe some more in the a.m.

 

[Vig]

Great day, Bason very nice!

 

[BASON]

Thanks Vig! Another Bayern goal would have made it perfect!

Hoping for a draw in the MLS Cup for a big payoff on a parlay. Everyone given Portland no chance so I thought I would take the draw. Have it tied to Cardiff and West Ham, so its a biggie for me!

 

[Vig]

Chalk looks good in both Bundesliga games tomorrow, any thoughts on those, bud? Don't want to pull triggers until I've consulted you in this league.

 

[BASON]

Sorry, missed this but I did not like the first game at all. I like Gladbach -1 in the second game. They need to keep pace and Stuttgart is bad on the road. Should be a 3-0 or 3-1 type game.

 

[BASON]

And I did watch the MLS final last night, but not sure why. Nothing has changed my opinion about this league. If those are the two best teams in the league, it is not a very good league. Portland was terrible. Have no idea how they got there, but they were not the least bit impressive. The only thing I was impressed with the whole game was the Atlanta crowd, it was great. Twellman talking Martinez up as the greatest player in MLS history. Well, if the greatest player in the league is one who can barely get on the field for the Venezuelan national team who has never qualified for the WC that is all you need to know about the MLS.

 

[Vig]

Sorry, missed this but I did not like the first game at all. I like Gladbach -1 in the second game. They need to keep pace and Stuttgart is bad on the road. Should be a 3-0 or 3-1 type game.

Yep, I'm taking the Mainz game on the chin. Stepped out of looking for picks and halves on this one

 

[BASON]

CL

I am just going to stick to games where something is on the line as motivation for the teams that are already through can be tough to gauge.

Inter -1.5 +111 - I do not think Eindhoven is very good. They are good at home and in the League, but this is definitely a step up for them. Inter not only has to win, but they need to win by as much as they can in case Spurs win. I will lay it here and see a 2 or 3 to nil game. Also like the FH -125.

Galatasaray Pk -130 - Porto is through and the Turks get Euro with a win. They want to get to Euro and I always say how tough it is to play in Turkey. Porto may rest a couple players today, but even if they do not, I like the Turks at home especially on the PK line.

Liverpool Ov 2.5 -145 - I am going a little against the grain on this one. Many think this will be low scoring as Napoli may park the bus since 0-0 gets them through. A 1-0 gets Liverpool through. BUT, I do not see that type of game. It is not Napoli's style. I think we see at least 3 in this one, if not more if there are early goals. The Ov 1 in the FH is not a bad play either.

Barca +105 - This play is conditional on the lineups. If Barca does not rest players, they win. Do not care if they are through and Spurs have to win. The stats against a Spurs win are overwhelming. Barca has only lost once to an English team in their last 30 home European matches and have not lost a CL game at home in 28 matches. Barca + money at home is rare and I do not think the Spurs have what it takes against their A team.

I certainly do not trust PSG laying 2 goals even though they have to win, so I am staying away from that one even though Red Star looks tempting +2.

 

[Englishman]

CL

I am just going to stick to games where something is on the line as motivation for the teams that are already through can be tough to gauge.

Inter -1.5 +111 - I do not think Eindhoven is very good. They are good at home and in the League, but this is definitely a step up for them. Inter not only has to win, but they need to win by as much as they can in case Spurs win. I will lay it here and see a 2 or 3 to nil game. Also like the FH -125.

Galatasaray Pk -130 - Porto is through and the Turks get Euro with a win. They want to get to Euro and I always say how tough it is to play in Turkey. Porto may rest a couple players today, but even if they do not, I like the Turks at home especially on the PK line.

Liverpool Ov 2.5 -145 - I am going a little against the grain on this one. Many think this will be low scoring as Napoli may park the bus since 0-0 gets them through. A 1-0 gets Liverpool through. BUT, I do not see that type of game. It is not Napoli's style. I think we see at least 3 in this one, if not more if there are early goals. The Ov 1 in the FH is not a bad play either.

Barca +105 - This play is conditional on the lineups. If Barca does not rest players, they win. Do not care if they are through and Spurs have to win. The stats against a Spurs win are overwhelming. Barca has only lost once to an English team in their last 30 home European matches and have not lost a CL game at home in 28 matches. Barca + money at home is rare and I do not think the Spurs have what it takes against their A team.

I certainly do not trust PSG laying 2 goals even though they have to win, so I am staying away from that one even though Red Star looks tempting +2.

Great stuff Bason, thanks for posting as always.

 

[BASON]

For the record I played the Liverpool Over on the asian handicap Ov 2.75, the line changed on me by the time I got it in.

While I was at it, I played Inter on the Asian also at -1.25

 

[BASON]

NO PLAY on Barca, no Suarez or Messi. Spurs playing best offensive team they have. Just not worth a play without their two best players.

 

[BASON]

Just a disastrous day. Does not happen often, but it was just one of those days. Missed penalty and just tons of missed chances. Italian teams choked and Premier League teams did what they had to do. No excuse at all for Inter not winning at home. Both Napoli and Inter got what they deserved and their owners lost millions. No wonder every team besides Juve is broke in Italy.

I do not like much tomorrow but should have a couple of totals up in the morning.

 

[BASON]

Making one large play tomorrow, if I do not win, I will likely take a little break.

Shakhtar Ov 3 - Just a massive game for Shakhtar. Place will be nuts and they will be pumped. I know they are the popular play, but I think the goals are better. They are an attacking team but this also plays into Lyon's hands. We have the added benefit that Shakhtar is not a good defensive team. Lyon has had three 2-2 draws, one 3-3 draw and a 2-1 win at City. Shakhtar's two home games were a 2-2 draw and 3-0 loss. I do not see how we do not see at least 3 goals in this one. Plus there were only 2 overs today. Making it a big play given my day today.

 

[Crookity]

Making one large play tomorrow, if I do not win, I will likely take a little break.

Shakhtar Ov 3 - Just a massive game for Shakhtar. Place will be nuts and they will be pumped. I know they are the popular play, but I think the goals are better. They are an attacking team but this also plays into Lyon's hands. We have the added benefit that Shakhtar is not a good defensive team. Lyon has had three 2-2 draws, one 3-3 draw and a 2-1 win at City. Shakhtar's two home games were a 2-2 draw and 3-0 loss. I do not see how we do not see at least 3 goals in this one. Plus there were only 2 overs today. Making it a big play given my day today.

Hey Bason, we all have days like yesterday, those results will be a distant memory no time.

I like the play above, I already had this one circled, and locked it in this morning. I am kind of scratching my head as to why the money is moving in the opposite direction. I played this around -120 and I see it is now at + money :shrug: anyhow Good Luck today, let's get this one!

 

[BASON]

I think others may think Shakhtar may play more conservative given the situation so they like the under, but they only know how to play one way and I really do not see that changing. I saw an interview with the coach who basically said the thing.

 

[Englishman]

BASON;

Thoughts on Pizen/Roma?

Roma have nothing to play for, Pizen need to win to make sure they are in the Europa Cup.

Leaning Pizen + 1.80

 

[BASON]

I did not dig into it that much, but I simply do not trust Pilzen. Even is Roma sits a few players they are the better team. I do not disagree with the reasoning, but I am not sure Pilzen can keep Roma off the score board.

 

[Englishman]

Thanks for the feedback?