2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Premier

Watford +170/Pk-109 - This team continues to get no respect from the odds makers. Sure, Newcastle has to win but they have been really bad, especially at home, and until they break out I will gladly take the better team. Likely bigger on the Pk and use +170 in parlays. They have only 1 road loss in the league this year and won the last 5 against Newcastle. Seem too easy to me, but sometimes it is, like last week against Huddersfield.

Bournemouth +247/+.5 -120/Ov 2.5 - I simply do not think Man U is this good. They have lost on the road to West Ham and Brighton. Cherries have not lost a game at home and 7 of their 10 games have seen at least 3 goals. Man U is unpredictable, but I will take Bournemouth +.5 at home every time. I like the over 2.5 if you can still get it and I will use Bournemouth +247 in a long shot parlay.

Leicester +115 - Another one that looks too easy, but I will bite. Cardiff simply is not very good while Leicester tends to beat the bottom of the table teams and lose to the top ones. You also have to think that Leicester plays an inspired game for their owner who died last week. They are driving to the game in his honor. He was well liked so I think they win one for him.


Bundesliga

Leverkusen Ov 3 - Get the 3 if you can, I think there are 4 in this one, but safer to have the 3. They look like they have come alive, so we should see goals.

The I do not fully trust these teams parlay

Dortmund-105
Berlin +.5 -130
Augsburg -170

 

[BASON]

And once again the English Premier League officials prove how fucking pathetic they really are. An obvious hand ball prevents a goal and not one of the officials sees it. And it should have been a red card! It is just ridiculous how bad these guys are. How can 3 officials be watching the game and not see that that shot is deflected by a hand ball. Sorry, but this just drives me nuts, especially when it cost me money (Leicester makes the penalty and is up a man, they win). A game a week is decided by poor officiating. It is embarrassing and pissing me off.

 

[BASON]

For fun parlay on a slow and rainy Monday

Huddersfield Ov 2.5 +105
Cologne/Hamburg Draw +218

Fulham can not stop anyone from scoring. I mean Cardiff scored 4 on them. I am likely against popular opinion on this one, but I think Huddersfield has to attack and not play conservative. Cologne and Hamburg just smells like a draw to keep them both at the top.

Champions will be up a little later.

 

[BASON]

Champions League

InterMilan +253/+.5-120/Ov 2.5 -120 - Inter is in great form and scoring at will at home. They rested their top scorer over the weekend and still won 5-0. I think they have a great chance to win this game and I definitely think we see more than 2.5 goals.

Napoli +180/Pk +114/Ov 3 -115 - They dominated in Paris so is there any reason to believe they will not again at home. They are a fantastic home team. PSG has to get points from this one, but I still like Napoli here and we should see at least 3 goals.

Spurs/Atletico/Porto - Will tie them all together on ML, should pay about 2.5 to 1.


When I list both lines I usually play the goal line play much larger and then the ML for a smaller amount. Sometimes I will just use the ML in a parlay. For instance, I will likely add Napoli or Inter ML to Spurs and Porto for a nice payout.

 

[BASON]

Lyon +105/Ov 3 -150 - 3-3 last time out. See another high scoring game with Lyon winning. A win puts them in the drivers seat to move on.

Juventus -170 - It is pricey but I will take them at home. They dominated there and should win this.

Plzen +2 -130/+832 - I placed this yesterday so the line may have changed a little. I really think the home team has a chance to win this. Real is still a mess.

Ajax Pk +115 - This is more of a play against Benfica as they are not in good shape.

 

[BASON]

Just shit day, nothing else to say.

Plays I am using tomorrow

Krasnador
Genk
Dinamo Zagreb and Ov
Fenerbache Ov
Rapid Viena Ov
Lazio and Ov

 

[BASON]

Saturday

Spurs -115 - I tend to get the Spurs wrong most of the time for some reason, but they are strong on the road and have won the last 3 at CP, so I will take my chances.

Dortmund +.5 -130/+208 - Based on how the teams have played this year, this line is a joke. The line is based on history and the fact that people think Bayern will come around at some point. I have said all year that Bayern is simply an aging team that is not as good as it once was. This is a massive game for Dortmund not only for control of the Bundesliga but for their confidence going forward. I am hoping they are young enough to look past the moment and continue to play great attacking football at home. I have been fooled by them many years before, but I will take my shot with them again at home this year as Bayern has not been very good. Looking forward to this one.

Will keep an eye on the Hoffenheim Over line overnight. They have been a scoring machine lately so should see plenty of goals in this one.

 

[1837]

Bason.... to get Dortmund at 3 to 1 to win the league right now... good bet?

 

[BASON]

I think so. Their only real competition is Bayern so obviously tomorrow's game is big. Bayern is going to have to make a couple major moves at the break/transfer window to get better in my opinion since I do not think it is just going to happen. Dortmund should continue to get better as this young team continues to come together. Only question is can they handle the pressure, etc., which we should find out some tomorrow. At 3-1 I think you are getting good value since I think the odds are more like 2-1.

As a side note, I do not do a lot of forward to win bets. I would rather take Dortmund tomorrow and go from there, but that is just me as I do not like to tie up funds for long periods of time.

 

[1837]

Thanks buddy!:0008

 

[BASON]

Great second half in the Dortmund game. Was a pleasure to watch. Hope some of you caught it. Big win for Dortmund and for me!

Spurs did what they had to do for a nice day.

 

[Crookity]

Great second half in the Dortmund game. Was a pleasure to watch. Hope some of you caught it. Big win for Dortmund and for me!

Spurs did what they had to do for a nice day.

Excellent selections , great way to start the day I rode on both of those. The Dortmund game was fantastic, if only all games could be as free flowing , and entertaining as that one was..end to end action!

What is on tap for tomorrow ??

 

[carp]

Great second half in the Dortmund game. Was a pleasure to watch. Hope some of you caught it. Big win for Dortmund and for me!

Spurs did what they had to do for a nice day.

Awesome, thank you! Taking the time to share your picks and your insight is much appreciated! :0008

 

[BASON]

Thanks guys!

Sunday looks like the biggest square day I have seen in a while but I will bite.

Liverpool -2.5 -120 - They have to be pissed about losing in CL. They did not play well and what better chance to rebound against the league's worst defense. I think they come out and roll Fulham tomorrow morning. I an sticking with the game but I also like the FH and the FH over.

I really hate it when I like all the favorites, so I will do the following to make sure I do not blow all of today's winnings.

Arsenal/Chelsea/Man City - Pays about +235 at current odds. I like this better than playing them all separate.

Another homer in Spain

Celta Vigo +1 -115 - Yes, I know Real came out of their shell and scored 5 in CL. However, Cetla Vigo has lost only one of their last 19 games at home. That is very impressive against the competition they played so I will gladly take the +1 based on that history. This will likely be a shootout as most of the games between these two are, but Vigo is rested and will be up for this game. Would not be surprised to see them win.


And if you want to risk some more, you can continue the square home plays in Germany with

Leipzig/Frankfurt - I do not like this as much as above, so if you drop one this would be it, but I played Dortmund for much more than I should have so I have some money to play with. This pays about +310 at current odds. A draw is certainly possible in one of these but I will take a shot.

 

[BASON]

Nations League has been extremely good to us so far, so lets see if we can keep it going:

Austria -110
Kazakhstan -160
Belgium Ov 3

I also will play

England Ov 2.5 versus the USA. I do not think the US has a chance in this one, but we should see a few goals.

 

[Vig]

Bason, what do you think of Greece getting plus money (+120) at home vs Finland? I'd think they should be favored more, but I'm not sure.

 

[BASON]

Was waiting for Snafu to chime in and he is on Finland. Finland won 2-0 at home. The line is favoriting Finland I think as Greece normally would be minus money, but they are not in great form right now while Finland appears to be playing well.

 

[Vig]

You're right, I should have asked Snafu also. Sorry Snafu, it was early this morning before my caffeine hit

 

[Vig]

You're right, I should have asked Snafu also. Sorry Snafu, it was early this morning before my caffeine hit

 

[Snafu]

No problem Vig, imo it's 50/50 match with decent possibility of draw...

Finland needs one point to secure group win for good, in practice Greece is in for nothing. Same goes with Hungary in next match vs Finland if Albania or Cyprus doesn't win today.

Group C standings:

as you can see Cyprus or Albania is strong candidate to be relegated to D group as "worst fourth".

https://www.soccerstand.com/standings/rBrorXo6/8b77G2SL/#table;overall


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