2018-19 Season
- Thread starter BASON
- Start date
Thanks English!
Galatasaray Pk -115/+155 - Those that follow know I like this team at home all the time. This line has baffled though, as I do not understand how Schalke is getting this much credit (I did think the same in the Porto game and lost that one). They are a mess in the league and in relegation right now. Just do not see how CL can be their focus, especially traveling to Turkey. They are playing an inexperienced goalie tomorrow and god forbid he happens to get hurt as I think the back up is like 17 or 18 years old. Gala should win this game.
Lokomotiv +.5 -115 - Another game where I am not sure I understand the line. Not sure how Porto is getting this much credit on the road as they are not a good road team and no one likes traveling to Russia. It is a smaller play but I think they at least get the draw at home.
I have PSG tied up in a couple parlays as they are pricey at -214 but this is a must win home game for them. Their whole season is CL as the league is a joke so this game is very important to them after losing to Liverpool.
I do not trust Barca right now especially without Messi. I usually would be all over Brugge as Monaco is a mess, but so is Brugge. I wish Monaco was playing someone else, but I really do not see them getting it together tomorrow on the road. Henry has to be concerned about the league and should care less about CL. I may put Brugge in a par just to have some exposure.
Galatasaray Pk -115/+155 - Those that follow know I like this team at home all the time. This line has baffled though, as I do not understand how Schalke is getting this much credit (I did think the same in the Porto game and lost that one). They are a mess in the league and in relegation right now. Just do not see how CL can be their focus, especially traveling to Turkey. They are playing an inexperienced goalie tomorrow and god forbid he happens to get hurt as I think the back up is like 17 or 18 years old. Gala should win this game.
Lokomotiv +.5 -115 - Another game where I am not sure I understand the line. Not sure how Porto is getting this much credit on the road as they are not a good road team and no one likes traveling to Russia. It is a smaller play but I think they at least get the draw at home.
I have PSG tied up in a couple parlays as they are pricey at -214 but this is a must win home game for them. Their whole season is CL as the league is a joke so this game is very important to them after losing to Liverpool.
I do not trust Barca right now especially without Messi. I usually would be all over Brugge as Monaco is a mess, but so is Brugge. I wish Monaco was playing someone else, but I really do not see them getting it together tomorrow on the road. Henry has to be concerned about the league and should care less about CL. I may put Brugge in a par just to have some exposure.
Mine too Vig, it was big for me. Made me sweat it out.
The more I think about this Monaco game, the more I like Brugge. I have to think that no only does Henry not really care about the CL, but I have to also think that he really does not want to drop down into Euro. Maybe he wants the extra games, but with a roster that is not really that deep anymore, I have to think he would rather not be in Euro and focus on the League. I may be thinking about this too much, but I know Brugge will be happy to drop down to Euro. A win goes a long way to getting them there.
The more I think about this Monaco game, the more I like Brugge. I have to think that no only does Henry not really care about the CL, but I have to also think that he really does not want to drop down into Euro. Maybe he wants the extra games, but with a roster that is not really that deep anymore, I have to think he would rather not be in Euro and focus on the League. I may be thinking about this too much, but I know Brugge will be happy to drop down to Euro. A win goes a long way to getting them there.
Yeah, they were completely out played and out coached today.
I have no idea how Tuchel got hired there in the first place. He could not win at Dortmund and now Dortmund is looking great. I hope he didn't buy a house in Paris, because he is not going to last there very long.
Not a good day, but I did not have great expectations. Really just needed PSG, but they were simply outplayed today and got lucky to get the draw. Loko missed an early penalty and they were doomed from there.
I will post some thoughts for tomorrow, but I again will be taking it easy and just making some smaller plays.
I have no idea how Tuchel got hired there in the first place. He could not win at Dortmund and now Dortmund is looking great. I hope he didn't buy a house in Paris, because he is not going to last there very long.
Not a good day, but I did not have great expectations. Really just needed PSG, but they were simply outplayed today and got lucky to get the draw. Loko missed an early penalty and they were doomed from there.
I will post some thoughts for tomorrow, but I again will be taking it easy and just making some smaller plays.
Here is what caught my eye for tomorrow
Leverkusen Ov 2.5
Rangers+115
Astana +.5 -140
Favorites I lean to, mostly used in pars
Qarabag
Zagreb
Zenit
Besiktas
Frankfurt
Like I said, just some action plays as I really have not had time to cap these and they tend to be unpredictable.
Leverkusen Ov 2.5
Rangers+115
Astana +.5 -140
Favorites I lean to, mostly used in pars
Qarabag
Zagreb
Zenit
Besiktas
Frankfurt
Like I said, just some action plays as I really have not had time to cap these and they tend to be unpredictable.
Blah day in Europa, made a small profit on the day so I will take it.
I am completely out of pocket this weekend so I will try to post some weekend plays a little later today.
I am completely out of pocket this weekend so I will try to post some weekend plays a little later today.
I went through the weekend schedule and below is what I like just going through the games without even look at the lines yet ( I have not played anything yet).
Saturday
Premier
Watford - Continue to like this team as they showed well last week on the road. I think they take care of business in a game they should win against a Huddersfield team that I think is going down.
Bournemouth Pk and Over - I know they underperformed last week, but they probably get the best match up they can have after that game. Fulham is a mess in the back and bleeding goals every week. This should be enough to get Bournemouth back on track. Just hard to ignore Fulham giving up 4 goals to Cardiff last week. I may be overreacting but I do not see Fulham getting it together in the back overnight.
Leicester - still not sure about this one as West Ham is a so unpredictable, but they are not very good on the road and have issues in the mid field now with Yarmalenko out for extended period of time. Likely a par game for me.
Budesliga
Dortmund - hard to ignore how good they have been playing lately. They have a strong, young attacking roster that is getting more confident week by week. A home loss would be a step back but I do not think that will happen. Likely pricey so another par game.
Hannover Ov - Like this one, could be a 2-2 type game.
Sunday
El Classico
Barca - This is the only one way to play this in my opinion. Real remains a mess and I find it hard to believe that they will miraculously turn it around this weekend. Barca will be laser focused without Messi and I expect to get a great price on the home team.
Bundesliga
Frankfort - Hate going against my team, but Nurnberg is really struggling against the stronger teams and Frankfort is playing really well right now.
Leipzig - Schalke is a mess and Leipzig made a lot of changes mid week to rest starters so they should be fresh.
Serie A
Napoli Ov 3 - Roma has owned Napoli at home last 2 years winning 4-2 and 3-1. Napoli has to be a little worn out after a great performance in France while Roma has an easy home match. Sounds like I am making an argument for Roma as I write, but I like the over.
I will do my best to update this with the actual plays (with lines) that I make later today.
Saturday
Premier
Watford - Continue to like this team as they showed well last week on the road. I think they take care of business in a game they should win against a Huddersfield team that I think is going down.
Bournemouth Pk and Over - I know they underperformed last week, but they probably get the best match up they can have after that game. Fulham is a mess in the back and bleeding goals every week. This should be enough to get Bournemouth back on track. Just hard to ignore Fulham giving up 4 goals to Cardiff last week. I may be overreacting but I do not see Fulham getting it together in the back overnight.
Leicester - still not sure about this one as West Ham is a so unpredictable, but they are not very good on the road and have issues in the mid field now with Yarmalenko out for extended period of time. Likely a par game for me.
Budesliga
Dortmund - hard to ignore how good they have been playing lately. They have a strong, young attacking roster that is getting more confident week by week. A home loss would be a step back but I do not think that will happen. Likely pricey so another par game.
Hannover Ov - Like this one, could be a 2-2 type game.
Sunday
El Classico
Barca - This is the only one way to play this in my opinion. Real remains a mess and I find it hard to believe that they will miraculously turn it around this weekend. Barca will be laser focused without Messi and I expect to get a great price on the home team.
Bundesliga
Frankfort - Hate going against my team, but Nurnberg is really struggling against the stronger teams and Frankfort is playing really well right now.
Leipzig - Schalke is a mess and Leipzig made a lot of changes mid week to rest starters so they should be fresh.
Serie A
Napoli Ov 3 - Roma has owned Napoli at home last 2 years winning 4-2 and 3-1. Napoli has to be a little worn out after a great performance in France while Roma has an easy home match. Sounds like I am making an argument for Roma as I write, but I like the over.
I will do my best to update this with the actual plays (with lines) that I make later today.
The line is very telling is this game today. Man City is -154 on the road. That is hard to ignore. I do not think the Spurs are in very good form right now and they likely lost any chance of advancing in Champions league after completely blowing their game against PSV last weekend. Man City is a tough draw after that game. Spurs have lost the last 3 against City and this game rarely ends in a draw (I think only 2 in the last 28 matches). For me, it is Man City or nothing, but I want to see the starting lineups.
I like Augsburg in the German Cup and will wait to see the lineup for the Bournemouth game. If it is mostly regular starters, I like the Over, even at 3, but if they make a lot of substitutions I would lay off.
DC United +110 - They have been a money making machine the second half of the season and I see no reason not to take them at home once again at plus money. Rooney has really done a great job entrenching himself with this team (unlike Ibra) and accepting his role. I do not see them losing at home.
I am going to add DC United (+113) to a parlay with Bournemouth +247 (+639). If you really want a big payout add Watford +170 (+1895)!
Will have more on those later, but I do not think DC United is going to lose at home. As such, I may also use the draw (+247) in an open parlay to hedge a little on the straight bet. Nothing big, but something to play with in case the game is a draw. I used to do a lot more of these arbitrage type plays in my younger days, but not so much anymore, but it can work out in a situation like DC United tonight. Of course if they lose it all goes to shit.
Will have more on those later, but I do not think DC United is going to lose at home. As such, I may also use the draw (+247) in an open parlay to hedge a little on the straight bet. Nothing big, but something to play with in case the game is a draw. I used to do a lot more of these arbitrage type plays in my younger days, but not so much anymore, but it can work out in a situation like DC United tonight. Of course if they lose it all goes to shit.
Bason could I get your opinion on 2 plays? I am looking at 2 overs for Saturday , Man U / Bournemouth over 2.5 -138 and Liverpool - Arsenal over 3 - 120. It is good to see that you are likely playing Watford, I see great value in this line and can get it right now at +180, or draw no bet Even.
Thanks for all your insights, I always look forward to your weekend soccer posts.
As soon as I give Rooney and DC United a little praise he doesn't come thru. There is a reason I am not a big fan of the MLS and it was on display last night. No real pace, or good passing, or flow, or creative scoring chances, some bad goal tending and bad officiating. And this was a playoff game! This will be my last MLS bet. I did open a parlay with the draw at +247 so hopefully I get my money back and then some.
Crook,
I will have some plays up later today. I do like the Bournemouth over, hell I have liked the over is just about all their games as they have 3 or more goals in 70% of their games. Plus, Man U is not a good road team. If you can get it at 2.5 I would play it now as I think it goes to 3 overnight. I also like Bournemouth. As for the Arsenal game, I do not like the over that much as I see a 2-1 type game. I think the over will be a popular play, but I still do not think much of Arsenal and I could see them struggling tomorrow against a better team.
Crook,
I will have some plays up later today. I do like the Bournemouth over, hell I have liked the over is just about all their games as they have 3 or more goals in 70% of their games. Plus, Man U is not a good road team. If you can get it at 2.5 I would play it now as I think it goes to 3 overnight. I also like Bournemouth. As for the Arsenal game, I do not like the over that much as I see a 2-1 type game. I think the over will be a popular play, but I still do not think much of Arsenal and I could see them struggling tomorrow against a better team.
