3/27 Thursday Service Plays
- Thread starter Al Kaline
- Start date
John Fina
March 27, 2008
Selection: Detroit Pistons (-)
Today the Miami Heat will be on the road as they take on the Detroit Pistons. We will lay the points with the Detroit Pistons! The Detroit Pistons have the much superior overall team. The bottom line, the Detroit Pistons should have no problem dominating this game on offense and defense which means the Miami Heat will struggle from start to finish. In addition, the Miami Heat are a bad road team. In fact, the Miami Heat are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Detroit Pistons
March 27, 2008
Selection: Detroit Pistons (-)
Today the Miami Heat will be on the road as they take on the Detroit Pistons. We will lay the points with the Detroit Pistons! The Detroit Pistons have the much superior overall team. The bottom line, the Detroit Pistons should have no problem dominating this game on offense and defense which means the Miami Heat will struggle from start to finish. In addition, the Miami Heat are a bad road team. In fact, the Miami Heat are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Detroit Pistons
Drew Gordon
1. 400,000♦ West Virginia
2. 50,000♦ Nuggets
1. West Virginia- Got to love the Mountaineers in this contest for several strong reasons, but let's start with their recent play. Mountaineers effectively shut down two rock-solid offenses in consecutive tourney games. Arizona was a well-balanced team, led by two of the better player in the PAC-10, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 65 points and cruised to a 10-point victory! Then came Duke, a guard-heavy offense built on the perimeter game, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 67 points on 38% shooting, winning outright 73-67 as 4-point dogs!
This brings me to my first mismatch: Xavier's offense versus the West Virginia
man-to-man defense. Make no mistake, the Musketeers played some relatively weak defenses throughout the season, and even into tournament play. Comparing the surging WVU defense to either Georgia or Purdue's defense is like comparing apples and oranges. Statistically, when we talk about defense, we're talking about scoring defense and opponents field goal percentage... The only team on Xavier's schedule ranked higher than WVU in both categories is Arizona State, and what happened in that game? Xavier got crushed 77-55! Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but what I am saying is Xavier hasn't seen a defense like WVU in a long time, and they'll have their issues against it tonight.
Next, let's talk match ups, as clearly the best player on the court is WVU F Joe Alexander. I would go as far to say, he's the only true "go-to" player on the court, giving WVU a huge edge when they "need" a basket. Critics say F Josh Duncan can guard him, but I seriously doubt that. While I'll admit Xavier's experience in the backcourt is an edge, point guards Nichols and Mazzulla (who's playing as good as any backup PG in the country right now) are both excellent distributors, and have the size (both 6'2) to take advantage of the elfish 5'7 Drew Lavender.
Finally, you can't tell me the difference between the Big East and A-10 isn't an issue here. While Xavier was losing at Temple and narrowly beating teams like Charlotte (two of the better teams in the A-10), West Virginia was busy battling teams like Louisville and Pittsburgh. Sorry Xavier-backers, but the difference is crystal clear for this 'Capper, and it'll show in tonight's match up. The fact Xavier also had a much easier path to the Sweet 16 cannot be ignored, as Georgia was lucky to be there, and Purdue was a deeply flawed team that played zero defense against the Musketeers.
Bottom line, Xavier runs smack into wall called the WVU defense, while Alexander and company have the edges necessary to exploit a good, but not great Xavier defense. "Battle-tested" is a word that the media loves to throw around, but in this case, it's appropriate, as the Mountaineers battles in the Big East pay off on the Big Stage tonight in Phoenix.
Take West Virginia over Xavier as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Nuggets- So the Mavericks snap their 3-game losing streak, clobbering the lowly Clippers 103-90 Tuesday night in Dallas, and now everything is okay, right? Wrong! Don't let one home win against one of the worst teams in the NBA fool you... This is a Dallas team on the ropes without Nowitzki, and getting it done in Denver is a hell of a lot different than beating the Clippers in Dallas!
Let's not forget, the Nuggets are sitting on the outside looking in (9th spot, 1/2 game back from the Warriors), and would like nothing more than to improve their position, and subsequently hurt the Mavs playoff chances with a win here tonight. If there's any place the Nuggets can do it, its at the Pepsi Center, where they've been downright nasty of late, winning 5 in a row SUATS, averaging a ridiculous 129.6 ppg over that span! Sure wins against Seattle and Memphis were easy, but they also beat the Spurs, Suns, and Raptors over that span... So don't tell me those wins aren't impressive!
Without Nowitzki, matchups become a real issue for the Mavs, because unlike the sorry Clippers, the Nuggets have the personnel to take advantage of the big German's absence. First off, Dampier is not going to score 19 points and grab 17 rebounds (like he did against the Clippers) against the frontline of Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin. Also, neither Kidd nor Stackhouse can guard Iverson, which immediately opens the Mavs defense to dribble penetration. And finally, Josh Howard and Carmelo Anthony all but equalize each other, leaving the Mavs grasping for answers.
Finally, let's examine the series, as Denver has covered three in a row, and that was with Nowitzki in the lineup. Not only that, but as mentioned above, Denver is killing teams at the Pepsi Center, and Dallas will be no different. Also, I can't imagine all the grumblings from owner Mark Cuban is helping this Dallas team, as he's publicly questioned his coach and his team in recent weeks. It appears as though the addition of Jason Kidd was not the spark they envisioned, and after tonight, it'll be crystal clear which team is playing better basketball. Nuggets roll!
Take the Nuggets BIG over the Mavericks in this NBA match up.
1. 400,000♦ West Virginia
2. 50,000♦ Nuggets
1. West Virginia- Got to love the Mountaineers in this contest for several strong reasons, but let's start with their recent play. Mountaineers effectively shut down two rock-solid offenses in consecutive tourney games. Arizona was a well-balanced team, led by two of the better player in the PAC-10, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 65 points and cruised to a 10-point victory! Then came Duke, a guard-heavy offense built on the perimeter game, and what happened? WVU Limited them to 67 points on 38% shooting, winning outright 73-67 as 4-point dogs!
This brings me to my first mismatch: Xavier's offense versus the West Virginia
man-to-man defense. Make no mistake, the Musketeers played some relatively weak defenses throughout the season, and even into tournament play. Comparing the surging WVU defense to either Georgia or Purdue's defense is like comparing apples and oranges. Statistically, when we talk about defense, we're talking about scoring defense and opponents field goal percentage... The only team on Xavier's schedule ranked higher than WVU in both categories is Arizona State, and what happened in that game? Xavier got crushed 77-55! Now, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but what I am saying is Xavier hasn't seen a defense like WVU in a long time, and they'll have their issues against it tonight.
Next, let's talk match ups, as clearly the best player on the court is WVU F Joe Alexander. I would go as far to say, he's the only true "go-to" player on the court, giving WVU a huge edge when they "need" a basket. Critics say F Josh Duncan can guard him, but I seriously doubt that. While I'll admit Xavier's experience in the backcourt is an edge, point guards Nichols and Mazzulla (who's playing as good as any backup PG in the country right now) are both excellent distributors, and have the size (both 6'2) to take advantage of the elfish 5'7 Drew Lavender.
Finally, you can't tell me the difference between the Big East and A-10 isn't an issue here. While Xavier was losing at Temple and narrowly beating teams like Charlotte (two of the better teams in the A-10), West Virginia was busy battling teams like Louisville and Pittsburgh. Sorry Xavier-backers, but the difference is crystal clear for this 'Capper, and it'll show in tonight's match up. The fact Xavier also had a much easier path to the Sweet 16 cannot be ignored, as Georgia was lucky to be there, and Purdue was a deeply flawed team that played zero defense against the Musketeers.
Bottom line, Xavier runs smack into wall called the WVU defense, while Alexander and company have the edges necessary to exploit a good, but not great Xavier defense. "Battle-tested" is a word that the media loves to throw around, but in this case, it's appropriate, as the Mountaineers battles in the Big East pay off on the Big Stage tonight in Phoenix.
Take West Virginia over Xavier as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Nuggets- So the Mavericks snap their 3-game losing streak, clobbering the lowly Clippers 103-90 Tuesday night in Dallas, and now everything is okay, right? Wrong! Don't let one home win against one of the worst teams in the NBA fool you... This is a Dallas team on the ropes without Nowitzki, and getting it done in Denver is a hell of a lot different than beating the Clippers in Dallas!
Let's not forget, the Nuggets are sitting on the outside looking in (9th spot, 1/2 game back from the Warriors), and would like nothing more than to improve their position, and subsequently hurt the Mavs playoff chances with a win here tonight. If there's any place the Nuggets can do it, its at the Pepsi Center, where they've been downright nasty of late, winning 5 in a row SUATS, averaging a ridiculous 129.6 ppg over that span! Sure wins against Seattle and Memphis were easy, but they also beat the Spurs, Suns, and Raptors over that span... So don't tell me those wins aren't impressive!
Without Nowitzki, matchups become a real issue for the Mavs, because unlike the sorry Clippers, the Nuggets have the personnel to take advantage of the big German's absence. First off, Dampier is not going to score 19 points and grab 17 rebounds (like he did against the Clippers) against the frontline of Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin. Also, neither Kidd nor Stackhouse can guard Iverson, which immediately opens the Mavs defense to dribble penetration. And finally, Josh Howard and Carmelo Anthony all but equalize each other, leaving the Mavs grasping for answers.
Finally, let's examine the series, as Denver has covered three in a row, and that was with Nowitzki in the lineup. Not only that, but as mentioned above, Denver is killing teams at the Pepsi Center, and Dallas will be no different. Also, I can't imagine all the grumblings from owner Mark Cuban is helping this Dallas team, as he's publicly questioned his coach and his team in recent weeks. It appears as though the addition of Jason Kidd was not the spark they envisioned, and after tonight, it'll be crystal clear which team is playing better basketball. Nuggets roll!
Take the Nuggets BIG over the Mavericks in this NBA match up.
Michael Cannon
25 Dime ?
XAVIER
Take Xavier tonight over West Virginia in the West Regional.
A lot of small edges go Xavier?s way in this matchup. Experience, depth and scoring balance just to name a few.
But the biggest reason I?m siding with Xavier is point guard Drew Lavender.
The lightning-quick senior has the ability to control the tempo of this game all by himself, and he?s got the experience and talent to get it done in the clutch for the Minutemen.
West Virginia may have the biggest pure scorer on the court in Joe Alexander, but Xavier has six players that average between 10 and 12 ppg. All it takes is one game where Alexander gets into foul trouble and the Mountaineers scoring goes down the drain.
Don?t be surprised if it happens here tonight.
The Minutemen have gone to the charity stripe 33 times in each of their first two games of the tournament, where they are shooting a whopping 80 percent as a team.
Alexander is going to have to work on both ends of the court in this game, as Josh Duncan has the ability to score from the perimeter or low post. That means a lot of Alexander?s energy is going to be expended on the defensive end, which could affect his shooting in the second half.
Take Xavier as their experience, scoring balance and Lavender make the difference tonight.
10 Dime ?
LOUISVILLE
Take Louisville tonight over Tennessee.
The only team playing better than the Cardinals right now in the tournament is North Carolina.
Louisville coach Rick Pitino has dialed it up on defense and his players have responded in a big, big way.
The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SUATS run over the last two months and I don?t see Tennessee hanging within the number tonight.
Louisville is a deep, athletic team that causes headaches for its opponents with an aggressive 2-3 zone that makes it difficult for opponents to find an open look.
The Volunteers best chance in this game is if guard Chris Lofton is hot, but he?s only shooting 22 percent from the field through the first two rounds and I doubt he gets hot against the pressure the Cardinals are sure to keep him under.
Take Louisville minus the points as they grab the win and cover
25 Dime ?
XAVIER
Take Xavier tonight over West Virginia in the West Regional.
A lot of small edges go Xavier?s way in this matchup. Experience, depth and scoring balance just to name a few.
But the biggest reason I?m siding with Xavier is point guard Drew Lavender.
The lightning-quick senior has the ability to control the tempo of this game all by himself, and he?s got the experience and talent to get it done in the clutch for the Minutemen.
West Virginia may have the biggest pure scorer on the court in Joe Alexander, but Xavier has six players that average between 10 and 12 ppg. All it takes is one game where Alexander gets into foul trouble and the Mountaineers scoring goes down the drain.
Don?t be surprised if it happens here tonight.
The Minutemen have gone to the charity stripe 33 times in each of their first two games of the tournament, where they are shooting a whopping 80 percent as a team.
Alexander is going to have to work on both ends of the court in this game, as Josh Duncan has the ability to score from the perimeter or low post. That means a lot of Alexander?s energy is going to be expended on the defensive end, which could affect his shooting in the second half.
Take Xavier as their experience, scoring balance and Lavender make the difference tonight.
10 Dime ?
LOUISVILLE
Take Louisville tonight over Tennessee.
The only team playing better than the Cardinals right now in the tournament is North Carolina.
Louisville coach Rick Pitino has dialed it up on defense and his players have responded in a big, big way.
The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SUATS run over the last two months and I don?t see Tennessee hanging within the number tonight.
Louisville is a deep, athletic team that causes headaches for its opponents with an aggressive 2-3 zone that makes it difficult for opponents to find an open look.
The Volunteers best chance in this game is if guard Chris Lofton is hot, but he?s only shooting 22 percent from the field through the first two rounds and I doubt he gets hot against the pressure the Cardinals are sure to keep him under.
Take Louisville minus the points as they grab the win and cover
EZ WINNERS
SWEET 16 SELECTIONS
THURSDAY
5 STAR: (807) WASHINGTON STATE (+8) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (814) UCLA (-13) over Western Kentucky
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (809) LOUISVILLE (-2) over Tennessee
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (812) XAVIER (+1) over West Virginia
(Risking $220 to win $200)
SWEET 16 SELECTIONS
THURSDAY
5 STAR: (807) WASHINGTON STATE (+8) over North Carolina
(Risking $550 to win $500)
3 STAR: (814) UCLA (-13) over Western Kentucky
(Risking $330 to win $300)
2 STAR: (809) LOUISVILLE (-2) over Tennessee
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (812) XAVIER (+1) over West Virginia
(Risking $220 to win $200)
Michael Cannon
Lay the points with North Carolina over Washington State in the East Regional.
A big contrast in styles, as the Tarheels are ultra-high tempo while the Cougars are a patient bunch who will want to slow the pace down.
The problem with that tatic is the Tarheels have seen it before, as there are precious few teams in the nation that are willing to run and gun with North Carolina.
On the other hand, Washington State hasn't seen a team that plays at such a frenetic pace as North Carolina.
The Tarheels have rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament and I expect that to continue tonight. They just don't allow their opponents to get any kind of momentum going. As soon as they are scored on, North Carolina pushes the ball up the court immediately for a countering score.
That helps to halt any momentum against them and it also deflates their oppnent who worked hard for the score only to see it neutralized immediately on the other end.
North Carolina is playing arguably its best basketball of the season right now, and with the big prize within their grasp look for them to continue to roll tonight.
Lay the points as North Carolina grabs the win and cover.
5♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Lay the points with North Carolina over Washington State in the East Regional.
A big contrast in styles, as the Tarheels are ultra-high tempo while the Cougars are a patient bunch who will want to slow the pace down.
The problem with that tatic is the Tarheels have seen it before, as there are precious few teams in the nation that are willing to run and gun with North Carolina.
On the other hand, Washington State hasn't seen a team that plays at such a frenetic pace as North Carolina.
The Tarheels have rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament and I expect that to continue tonight. They just don't allow their opponents to get any kind of momentum going. As soon as they are scored on, North Carolina pushes the ball up the court immediately for a countering score.
That helps to halt any momentum against them and it also deflates their oppnent who worked hard for the score only to see it neutralized immediately on the other end.
North Carolina is playing arguably its best basketball of the season right now, and with the big prize within their grasp look for them to continue to roll tonight.
Lay the points as North Carolina grabs the win and cover.
5♦ NORTH CAROLINA
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NCAA TOURNAMENT
WEST REGION
(at Phoenix)
(7) West Virginia (26-10, 16-13-1 ATS) vs. (3) Xavier (29-6, 15-16 ATS)
Xavier, which opened the Tournament with a 73-61 win over Georgia as an 8?-point favorite last Thursday, held off Purdue 85-78 Saturday as a 2?-point chalk. The Musketeers are on an eye-popping 15-2 SU run ? with both losses coming to Atlantic 10 rival St. Joe?s ? but despite two straight covers, they are just 8-9 ATS during this stretch.
West Virginia, coming off a 75-65 win over Arizona as a two-point favorite in its tourney opener, bounced second-seeded Duke 73-67 Saturday as a four-point underdog. The Mountaineers, who rallied from a six-point halftime deficit, are 10-3 in their last 13 starts, but have been just average against the number over that span, going 7-5-1 ATS.
The Musketeers carry several positive ATS streaks into this contest, including 8-1 in the Tournament, 6-0 as a Tournament underdog, 5-0 in non-conference play, 25-7 at neutral venues and 11-2 as a neutral-site pup. On the negative side, Xavier is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU win and 1-6 ATS in its last seven against the Big East.
The Mountaineers are on numerous pointspread upticks, including 8-0-1 in the Tournament, 4-0 as a Tournament favorite, 20-6 as a chalk of less seven points, 9-3 as a neutral-site favorite, 15-6 overall at neutral venues, 44-20-1 outside the Big East and 30-14-1 overall as a favorite. One negative note: West Virginia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a spread-cover.
Underdogs have gone 10-6 ATS the past two years in the NCAA Tournament?s Sweet 16 round. Last week, favorites went 20-11-1 ATS in the first round but just 9-7 ATS in the second round.
The over is on runs for Xavier of 5-0 in Tournament play, 6-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 with the Musketeers as an underdog and 7-2 at neutral sites. For West Virginia, the over is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0 against the Atlantic 10, 4-1 with the Mountaineers favored and 4-1 following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(12) Western Kentucky (29-6, 19-12 ATS) vs. (1) UCLA (33-3, 20-13-2 ATS)
UCLA squeaked past Texas A&M 51-49 Saturday, falling far short of covering the 9?-point spread and once again apparently being let off the hook by referees with a questionable no-call on A&M?s final shot. The victory came after an opening-round 70-29 spanking of 16th-seeded Mississippi Valley State, cashing despite being a 31?-point chalk. The Bruins are on a 12-0 SU run but are just 6-6 ATS, including 2-4 ATS in their last six starts.
Western Kentucky stunned fifth-seeded Drake 101-99 on an overtime buzzer-beater in the first round as a four-point ?dog, then topped another upstart by beating 13th-seeded San Diego 72-63 Sunday as a five-point chalk. The Hilltoppers have been winning and paying out lately, carrying a 7-0 ATS streak and 8-0 SU run into their first Sweet 16 game since 1993.
In the history of the Tournament, no No. 12 seed has ever defeated a No. 1 seed.
The Bruins are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year, going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in the last two. Also, they?re on pointspread runs of 35-16 after an ATS setback and 37-17 on Thursdays, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Hilltoppers are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 8-0 at neutral venues, 6-0 following a spread-cover, 12-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 on Thursday, 13-3 versus teams with a winning SU mark and 38-14 in non-conference play. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a neutral-site pup and 5-2 in their last seven as a ?dog of seven to 12? points.
UCLA is heavy on ?under? trends, including 10-1 as a Tournament favorite, 16-4 overall in the Tournament, 4-0 outside the Pac-10, 9-4 in neutral sites and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk. For Western Kentucky, the over is 13-4-1 in its last 18 neutral-site contests, but the under is 14-6 in its last 20 after a SU win and 15-7 in its last 22 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EAST REGION
(at Charlotte, N.C.)
(4) Washington St. (26-8, 18-15 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (34-2, 22-11 ATS)
North Carolina opened the Tournament with a 113-74 pounding of 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary?s as a 25-point favorite, then easily dispatched eighth-seeded Arkansas in nearly the same fashion on Sunday, rolling to a 108-77 rout laying 9? points. The Tar Heels have won 13 straight but their back-to-back spread-covers come on the heels of a 4-7 ATS slump.
This is the Tar Heels? third trip to the Sweet 16 in the last four years, and they won the last two times they reached this round (1-1 ATS).
While North Carolina got it done with offense last week, Washington State relied on stifling defense to advance, holding 13th-seeded Winthrop and 5th-seeded Notre Dame to a combined 81 points in a pair of blowout wins. First the Cougars rolled to a 71-40 win over Winthrop as a 10-point favorite, then they flattened Notre Dame 61-41 as a 2?-point chalk Saturday. The Cougars are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 outings, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four
During their current 6-7 ATS stretch, the Tar Heels are 2-5 as a favorite. Otherwise, the pointspread trends are all positive for Roy Williams? troops, including 7-1 against the Pac-10, 4-1 in the Tournament, 20-7 against winning teams, 38-14-1 after a spread-cover and 40-17-1 in non-conference play.
The Cougars are on pointspread runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 5-1 as a pup of 7 to 12? points and 5-2 outside the Pac-10, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog and are on a rather unique ATS slide of 0-6 against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in its previous game.
For Carolina, which ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 90 ppg, the over is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1 in the Tournament, 7-2 outside the ACC and 19-7-1 as a chalk. But the under is 8-1 in its last nine against the Pac-10. For Washington State, which has the nation?s second-ranked defense allowing just 56.1 ppg, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 overall, 30-12-1 in its last 43 non-conference clashes and 5-0 after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
(3) Louisville (26-8, 19-12-1 ATS) vs. (2) Tennessee (31-4, 17-14 ATS)
After struggling to put away No. 15 seed American 72-57 as a 19-point chalk in an opening-round contest, Tennessee got all it could handle from seventh-seeded Butler on Sunday before prevailing 76-71 in overtime, barely covering the 4?-point spread. The cover snapped a three-game ATS slide for the Volunteers, who have won six of their last seven and 15 of their last 17.
Louisville, after breezing past Boise State 79-61 as a 14-point favorite in its first-round matchup, pasted Oklahoma 78-48 Sunday as a seven-point favorite, moving to 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SU and ATS tear in their last 13 overall.
The Cardinals haven?t made it to the Sweet 16 since they beat Washington 93-79 as a 1?-point favorite to advance all the way to the 2005 Final Four. Meanwhile, Tennessee has advanced to the second weekend of the Tournament for the second straight year, getting ousted by top-seeded Ohio State 85-84 as a 4 ?-point underdog after blowing a 17-point halftime lead.
These two teams met four straight seasons between 2001 and 2005, with Louisville going 4-0 SU but Tennessee getting the cash three times. The Cardinals, favored in all four matchups, posted an 85-62 blowout in January 2005, covering as a 15?-point home chalk.
The Vols, who were the only No. 2 seed to cover in the second round, are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 as a ?dog of up to 6? points, 22-7 ATS in their last 29 as a ?dog of any price and 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 outside the Southeastern Conference. However, they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral-site games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a neutral-site pup and 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Big East.
The Cardinals enter this contest with nothing but positive ATS trends, including 17-5-1 overall, 5-2-1 in the Tournament, 5-0-1 as a Tournament favorite, 4-0 in non-conference play, 9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a win of more than 20 points, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 8-2 as a chalk and 8-2 after a spread-cover.
For Tennessee, the under is on runs of 5-0 against the Big East, 4-1 outside the SEC and 9-4 when catching less than seven points. However, the over is 13-5 in the Vols? last 18 at neutral venues and 4-1 in their last five after a SU win. Meanwhile, Louisville is riding ?under? streaks of 10-3 against the SEC, 4-1-1 in non-conference play and 14-5-1 after a SU win, but the over is 4-1 in the Cardinals? last five when favored by less than seven and 8-3 in Thursday games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
NBA
Dallas (45-26, 30-37-4 ATS) at Denver (43-28, 39-32 ATS)
After a five-game road trip, the Nuggets return home to the Pepsi Center riding a three-game SU and a four-game ATS winning streak as they host the depleted Mavericks.
Denver started its trip with consecutive losses at Detroit and Philadelphia, then rallied to win the next three at New Jersey (125-114), Toronto (109-100) and Memphis (120-106) over a stretch of four days. The Nuggets cashed in each of those three contests, and they?re 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall (8-4 SU) after going 2-7 ATS (3-6 SU) in their previous nine. Now, George Karl?s team is back at the Pepsi looking for its sixth consecutive SU and ATS triumph in front of the home fans. In fact, Denver is 16-2 SU in its last 18 at home and 10-3 ATS in the last 13.
The Mavericks come into tonight?s game having dropped three of four (0-4 TS) after previously going on a 5-0 SU and ATS spree. The lone victory came on Friday at home, as Dallas thumped the Clippers 103-90, but came up just short as a 13?-point chalk while playing without injured All-Star Dirk Nowitzki. Since the start of February, the Mavs have been a bad bet, going 11-14-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
So far this season, the Mavs and Nuggets have squared off twice ? both in Dallas ? with the teams splitting the matchups but Denver getting the cash in each contest. Over their last 10 meetings, even though the Mavericks are 7-3 SU, Denver is 6-4 ATS, including three straight spread-covers dating to last year.
The Mavericks come into this game 5-1 ATS their last six road games and 42-20 ATS their last 62 as an underdog. However, Dallas is 1-4 ATS its last five games coming off a non-cover and 0-5 ATS its last five against Western Conference opponents.
Denver is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite, but only 1-4 ATS its last five home games following road trips of seven days or more.
The Mavs have stayed under the total in four of their last five, while Denver has remained low in its last two after going over the posted price in 19 of its previous 24 outings. Finally, the under is 11-4 in the last 15 series meetings, though the total has alternated in the last five, with the most recent battle staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NCAA TOURNAMENT
WEST REGION
(at Phoenix)
(7) West Virginia (26-10, 16-13-1 ATS) vs. (3) Xavier (29-6, 15-16 ATS)
Xavier, which opened the Tournament with a 73-61 win over Georgia as an 8?-point favorite last Thursday, held off Purdue 85-78 Saturday as a 2?-point chalk. The Musketeers are on an eye-popping 15-2 SU run ? with both losses coming to Atlantic 10 rival St. Joe?s ? but despite two straight covers, they are just 8-9 ATS during this stretch.
West Virginia, coming off a 75-65 win over Arizona as a two-point favorite in its tourney opener, bounced second-seeded Duke 73-67 Saturday as a four-point underdog. The Mountaineers, who rallied from a six-point halftime deficit, are 10-3 in their last 13 starts, but have been just average against the number over that span, going 7-5-1 ATS.
The Musketeers carry several positive ATS streaks into this contest, including 8-1 in the Tournament, 6-0 as a Tournament underdog, 5-0 in non-conference play, 25-7 at neutral venues and 11-2 as a neutral-site pup. On the negative side, Xavier is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a SU win and 1-6 ATS in its last seven against the Big East.
The Mountaineers are on numerous pointspread upticks, including 8-0-1 in the Tournament, 4-0 as a Tournament favorite, 20-6 as a chalk of less seven points, 9-3 as a neutral-site favorite, 15-6 overall at neutral venues, 44-20-1 outside the Big East and 30-14-1 overall as a favorite. One negative note: West Virginia is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a spread-cover.
Underdogs have gone 10-6 ATS the past two years in the NCAA Tournament?s Sweet 16 round. Last week, favorites went 20-11-1 ATS in the first round but just 9-7 ATS in the second round.
The over is on runs for Xavier of 5-0 in Tournament play, 6-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 with the Musketeers as an underdog and 7-2 at neutral sites. For West Virginia, the over is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 4-0 against the Atlantic 10, 4-1 with the Mountaineers favored and 4-1 following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(12) Western Kentucky (29-6, 19-12 ATS) vs. (1) UCLA (33-3, 20-13-2 ATS)
UCLA squeaked past Texas A&M 51-49 Saturday, falling far short of covering the 9?-point spread and once again apparently being let off the hook by referees with a questionable no-call on A&M?s final shot. The victory came after an opening-round 70-29 spanking of 16th-seeded Mississippi Valley State, cashing despite being a 31?-point chalk. The Bruins are on a 12-0 SU run but are just 6-6 ATS, including 2-4 ATS in their last six starts.
Western Kentucky stunned fifth-seeded Drake 101-99 on an overtime buzzer-beater in the first round as a four-point ?dog, then topped another upstart by beating 13th-seeded San Diego 72-63 Sunday as a five-point chalk. The Hilltoppers have been winning and paying out lately, carrying a 7-0 ATS streak and 8-0 SU run into their first Sweet 16 game since 1993.
In the history of the Tournament, no No. 12 seed has ever defeated a No. 1 seed.
The Bruins are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year, going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in the last two. Also, they?re on pointspread runs of 35-16 after an ATS setback and 37-17 on Thursdays, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Hilltoppers are on a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 8-0 at neutral venues, 6-0 following a spread-cover, 12-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 on Thursday, 13-3 versus teams with a winning SU mark and 38-14 in non-conference play. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a neutral-site pup and 5-2 in their last seven as a ?dog of seven to 12? points.
UCLA is heavy on ?under? trends, including 10-1 as a Tournament favorite, 16-4 overall in the Tournament, 4-0 outside the Pac-10, 9-4 in neutral sites and 8-3 as a neutral-site chalk. For Western Kentucky, the over is 13-4-1 in its last 18 neutral-site contests, but the under is 14-6 in its last 20 after a SU win and 15-7 in its last 22 starts overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
EAST REGION
(at Charlotte, N.C.)
(4) Washington St. (26-8, 18-15 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (34-2, 22-11 ATS)
North Carolina opened the Tournament with a 113-74 pounding of 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary?s as a 25-point favorite, then easily dispatched eighth-seeded Arkansas in nearly the same fashion on Sunday, rolling to a 108-77 rout laying 9? points. The Tar Heels have won 13 straight but their back-to-back spread-covers come on the heels of a 4-7 ATS slump.
This is the Tar Heels? third trip to the Sweet 16 in the last four years, and they won the last two times they reached this round (1-1 ATS).
While North Carolina got it done with offense last week, Washington State relied on stifling defense to advance, holding 13th-seeded Winthrop and 5th-seeded Notre Dame to a combined 81 points in a pair of blowout wins. First the Cougars rolled to a 71-40 win over Winthrop as a 10-point favorite, then they flattened Notre Dame 61-41 as a 2?-point chalk Saturday. The Cougars are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 outings, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four
During their current 6-7 ATS stretch, the Tar Heels are 2-5 as a favorite. Otherwise, the pointspread trends are all positive for Roy Williams? troops, including 7-1 against the Pac-10, 4-1 in the Tournament, 20-7 against winning teams, 38-14-1 after a spread-cover and 40-17-1 in non-conference play.
The Cougars are on pointspread runs of 5-0 on Thursday, 5-1 as a pup of 7 to 12? points and 5-2 outside the Pac-10, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six as an underdog and are on a rather unique ATS slide of 0-6 against an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in its previous game.
For Carolina, which ranks second in the nation in scoring offense at 90 ppg, the over is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1 in the Tournament, 7-2 outside the ACC and 19-7-1 as a chalk. But the under is 8-1 in its last nine against the Pac-10. For Washington State, which has the nation?s second-ranked defense allowing just 56.1 ppg, the under is 7-3 in its last 10 overall, 30-12-1 in its last 43 non-conference clashes and 5-0 after allowing less than 50 points in its previous game.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
(3) Louisville (26-8, 19-12-1 ATS) vs. (2) Tennessee (31-4, 17-14 ATS)
After struggling to put away No. 15 seed American 72-57 as a 19-point chalk in an opening-round contest, Tennessee got all it could handle from seventh-seeded Butler on Sunday before prevailing 76-71 in overtime, barely covering the 4?-point spread. The cover snapped a three-game ATS slide for the Volunteers, who have won six of their last seven and 15 of their last 17.
Louisville, after breezing past Boise State 79-61 as a 14-point favorite in its first-round matchup, pasted Oklahoma 78-48 Sunday as a seven-point favorite, moving to 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals are on an 11-2 SU and ATS tear in their last 13 overall.
The Cardinals haven?t made it to the Sweet 16 since they beat Washington 93-79 as a 1?-point favorite to advance all the way to the 2005 Final Four. Meanwhile, Tennessee has advanced to the second weekend of the Tournament for the second straight year, getting ousted by top-seeded Ohio State 85-84 as a 4 ?-point underdog after blowing a 17-point halftime lead.
These two teams met four straight seasons between 2001 and 2005, with Louisville going 4-0 SU but Tennessee getting the cash three times. The Cardinals, favored in all four matchups, posted an 85-62 blowout in January 2005, covering as a 15?-point home chalk.
The Vols, who were the only No. 2 seed to cover in the second round, are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 as a ?dog of up to 6? points, 22-7 ATS in their last 29 as a ?dog of any price and 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 outside the Southeastern Conference. However, they are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 neutral-site games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a neutral-site pup and 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Big East.
The Cardinals enter this contest with nothing but positive ATS trends, including 17-5-1 overall, 5-2-1 in the Tournament, 5-0-1 as a Tournament favorite, 4-0 in non-conference play, 9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a win of more than 20 points, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 8-2 as a chalk and 8-2 after a spread-cover.
For Tennessee, the under is on runs of 5-0 against the Big East, 4-1 outside the SEC and 9-4 when catching less than seven points. However, the over is 13-5 in the Vols? last 18 at neutral venues and 4-1 in their last five after a SU win. Meanwhile, Louisville is riding ?under? streaks of 10-3 against the SEC, 4-1-1 in non-conference play and 14-5-1 after a SU win, but the over is 4-1 in the Cardinals? last five when favored by less than seven and 8-3 in Thursday games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
NBA
Dallas (45-26, 30-37-4 ATS) at Denver (43-28, 39-32 ATS)
After a five-game road trip, the Nuggets return home to the Pepsi Center riding a three-game SU and a four-game ATS winning streak as they host the depleted Mavericks.
Denver started its trip with consecutive losses at Detroit and Philadelphia, then rallied to win the next three at New Jersey (125-114), Toronto (109-100) and Memphis (120-106) over a stretch of four days. The Nuggets cashed in each of those three contests, and they?re 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall (8-4 SU) after going 2-7 ATS (3-6 SU) in their previous nine. Now, George Karl?s team is back at the Pepsi looking for its sixth consecutive SU and ATS triumph in front of the home fans. In fact, Denver is 16-2 SU in its last 18 at home and 10-3 ATS in the last 13.
The Mavericks come into tonight?s game having dropped three of four (0-4 TS) after previously going on a 5-0 SU and ATS spree. The lone victory came on Friday at home, as Dallas thumped the Clippers 103-90, but came up just short as a 13?-point chalk while playing without injured All-Star Dirk Nowitzki. Since the start of February, the Mavs have been a bad bet, going 11-14-1 ATS in their last 26 games.
So far this season, the Mavs and Nuggets have squared off twice ? both in Dallas ? with the teams splitting the matchups but Denver getting the cash in each contest. Over their last 10 meetings, even though the Mavericks are 7-3 SU, Denver is 6-4 ATS, including three straight spread-covers dating to last year.
The Mavericks come into this game 5-1 ATS their last six road games and 42-20 ATS their last 62 as an underdog. However, Dallas is 1-4 ATS its last five games coming off a non-cover and 0-5 ATS its last five against Western Conference opponents.
Denver is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite, but only 1-4 ATS its last five home games following road trips of seven days or more.
The Mavs have stayed under the total in four of their last five, while Denver has remained low in its last two after going over the posted price in 19 of its previous 24 outings. Finally, the under is 11-4 in the last 15 series meetings, though the total has alternated in the last five, with the most recent battle staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Big AL
3* UNC
Opinion UCLA
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Reason: At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers plus the points over Golden State, as road dogs of more than nine points are 64-42 ATS off a win of 20+ points, and 44-22 ATS if they're NOT off back to back wins. With Portland in off exactly one win (a 20 point victory over the Wizards), we'll take the points with the Trail Blazers tonight.
3* UNC
Opinion UCLA
Big Al Mcmordie
Game: Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Reason: At 10:35 pm, our member selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers plus the points over Golden State, as road dogs of more than nine points are 64-42 ATS off a win of 20+ points, and 44-22 ATS if they're NOT off back to back wins. With Portland in off exactly one win (a 20 point victory over the Wizards), we'll take the points with the Trail Blazers tonight.
Marc Lawrence
DEN -8.0 (-110) DAL
Analysis: Play On: Denver Nuggets
Note: Nuggets return home to host the Mavericks in a key Western Conference clash knowing that Dallas is riding a 0-7 SU losing streak in games against winning conference opponents since the all-star break. That ties nicely into Denver's terrific 30-6 ATS mark in games they win SU as a favorite when seeking same season revenge. With the Mavs battered and bruised, stay at home with the Nuggets here tonight
DEN -8.0 (-110) DAL
Analysis: Play On: Denver Nuggets
Note: Nuggets return home to host the Mavericks in a key Western Conference clash knowing that Dallas is riding a 0-7 SU losing streak in games against winning conference opponents since the all-star break. That ties nicely into Denver's terrific 30-6 ATS mark in games they win SU as a favorite when seeking same season revenge. With the Mavs battered and bruised, stay at home with the Nuggets here tonight
LT's Lock
Overall record: 580-475-22
Current streak: 1 win
Todays play: Washington St. +8'
MIGHTY QUINN
Mighty hit with Ohio State (-8-1/2) Wednesday night.
Today it's West Virginia. The surplus is 590 sirignanos.
ARMVIN SPORTS
CBB
3/27/2008
WESTERN KENTUCKY at UCLA Over 133
Cappers Access
Thur (CBB) Xavier
Thur (CBB) Louisville
Overall record: 580-475-22
Current streak: 1 win
Todays play: Washington St. +8'
MIGHTY QUINN
Mighty hit with Ohio State (-8-1/2) Wednesday night.
Today it's West Virginia. The surplus is 590 sirignanos.
ARMVIN SPORTS
CBB
3/27/2008
WESTERN KENTUCKY at UCLA Over 133
Cappers Access
Thur (CBB) Xavier
Thur (CBB) Louisville
Last edited:
WILD BILL
Sweet 16, March 27-28
Over 142 1/2 Wash St-UNC (2 units)
North Carolina -7 (1 unit)
Louisville -2 (1 unit)
Over 136 Xavier-West Va (5 units)
Over 143 Villanova-Kansas (2 units)
Wisconsin -5 (5 units)
Michigan St +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 135 Texas-Stanford (4 units)
Stanford +2 1/2 (2 units)
Sweet 16, March 27-28
Over 142 1/2 Wash St-UNC (2 units)
North Carolina -7 (1 unit)
Louisville -2 (1 unit)
Over 136 Xavier-West Va (5 units)
Over 143 Villanova-Kansas (2 units)
Wisconsin -5 (5 units)
Michigan St +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 135 Texas-Stanford (4 units)
Stanford +2 1/2 (2 units)
VEGAS SPORTS PICS
Xavier Musketeers + 1.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers
Xavier which has set a school record for wins in a season is 15-2 last 17 games off beating No.18 Purdue 85-78 in the last round. The Musketeers are 34-11 last 45 March games.
Louisville Cardinals - 2.5 over Tennessee Volunteers
Louisville is 11-2 last 13 games off winning its first two NCAA tournament games by a combined 157-109 shooting 58 percent forcing 35 turnovers over the two games.
Xavier Musketeers + 1.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers
Xavier which has set a school record for wins in a season is 15-2 last 17 games off beating No.18 Purdue 85-78 in the last round. The Musketeers are 34-11 last 45 March games.
Louisville Cardinals - 2.5 over Tennessee Volunteers
Louisville is 11-2 last 13 games off winning its first two NCAA tournament games by a combined 157-109 shooting 58 percent forcing 35 turnovers over the two games.
taipans, what happen to the proline boys...i haven't see their plays in 4 days on da row!?...thanks
Karl Garrett
40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
With all due respect to the Vols, I believe this Louisville team is the better team, and I believe the Cardinals will dispose of Tennessee in this round to advance to the next round.
Louisville is on an 11-2 run both straight up, and against the spread, and the Cards are on a 12-4-1 spread run away from Freedom Hall, while the Volunteers are just 8-11 against the spread away from Knoxville this season.
Also keep in mind that Tennessee's star guard Chris Lofton is nursing a sore ankle. The writing is on the wall my friends!
Louisville is playing too well right now, and Tennessee was lucky to escape in overtime against Butler last round.
Take Louisville.
10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS
Tough game here, but I will respect the selection committee's seedings, and grab the #3 seed plus a point or so tonight in Phoenix.
Xavier is getting some rock-solid point guard play from Drew Lavender, and they have the perfect mix of senior leadership to keep this march run motoring on. No knock on West Virginia, as Alexander, and Ruoff, along with Nichols continue to impress, but I am siding with the Musketeers in this near pick spot to move on to the Elite Eight.
10 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
This Hilltoppers team is really getting no respect with this line, and I am going to jump all over them plus the double-digits to give UCLA a fight before finally bowing out.
Ben Howland's team is shooting for another Final Four, but they looked mighty shaky against Texas A&M as the Bruins just aren't getting much production from their role players.
The Hilltoppers are just deadly enough from long range to keep them in range in this spot tonight.
Take WKU to stay inside of the number in this one.
40 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
With all due respect to the Vols, I believe this Louisville team is the better team, and I believe the Cardinals will dispose of Tennessee in this round to advance to the next round.
Louisville is on an 11-2 run both straight up, and against the spread, and the Cards are on a 12-4-1 spread run away from Freedom Hall, while the Volunteers are just 8-11 against the spread away from Knoxville this season.
Also keep in mind that Tennessee's star guard Chris Lofton is nursing a sore ankle. The writing is on the wall my friends!
Louisville is playing too well right now, and Tennessee was lucky to escape in overtime against Butler last round.
Take Louisville.
10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS
Tough game here, but I will respect the selection committee's seedings, and grab the #3 seed plus a point or so tonight in Phoenix.
Xavier is getting some rock-solid point guard play from Drew Lavender, and they have the perfect mix of senior leadership to keep this march run motoring on. No knock on West Virginia, as Alexander, and Ruoff, along with Nichols continue to impress, but I am siding with the Musketeers in this near pick spot to move on to the Elite Eight.
10 DIMER - WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS
This Hilltoppers team is really getting no respect with this line, and I am going to jump all over them plus the double-digits to give UCLA a fight before finally bowing out.
Ben Howland's team is shooting for another Final Four, but they looked mighty shaky against Texas A&M as the Bruins just aren't getting much production from their role players.
The Hilltoppers are just deadly enough from long range to keep them in range in this spot tonight.
Take WKU to stay inside of the number in this one.
I am almost convinced that following arthur ralphs free plays is more profitable on a weekly basis than playing all three of his picks.
Brandon Lang
THURSDAY
40 Dime
Louisville
10 Dime
West Virginia
5 Dime
Western Kentucky
Free Pick - Washington State
THURSDAY
40 Dime
Louisville
10 Dime
West Virginia
5 Dime
Western Kentucky
Free Pick - Washington State
