WINNING POINTS
EAST REGIONAL
Washington State over North Carolina by 1
The world saw 113 points and 108 points scored last weekend by the Tar Heels against
a bunch of runnin? fools wearing Mount St. Mary?s and Arkansas uniforms. Isn?t that
special, topping 100 in front of all your adoring North Carolinians, setting yourself up
to be contrasted into 2008 oblivion by Tony Bennett?s slow-paced Cougars? Stealing
possessions from North Carolina is like taking candy from a baby. It will become upset.
A whiny baby forces a parent ? Roy Williams ? to get distracted while attempting to
go about his business. The Tar Heels? specialty in 2008 has been wearing opponents
down in the second half. But at the pace Washington State plays (59.7 possessions per
game), they avoid getting worn down. See Butler against Tennessee last Sunday for a
prime example of this phenomenon. Butler (61 possessions per game vs. Tennessee?s
72) ? outscored early ? nevertheless had plenty of energy for a second-half comeback.
The teams that North Carolina generally runs into the ground are the free-wheeling
types who want to score points ASAP and compile scoring averages that draw the attention
of NBA scouts. Washington State is not that kind of opponent. The systematic
upperclassmen patiently run their sets, scoring from many angles while sucking up time
and forcing opposing kids for whom defense is a chore ? not a responsibility ? to play
it for 35 seconds when they?d rather be takin? it to the hole or swishin? it. Tony Bennett
uses the same game-plan that annihilated Notre Dame, crossing out ?Harangody? substituting
?Hansbrough,? and sweating a lot more to be able to sing: ?I?m a stranger in
paradise!? WASHINGTON STATE, 63-62.
Louisville over Tennessee by 1
Little Ricky prepares Louisville to play many different ways during the course of a season.
Tennessee?s Bruce Pearl is content to let the Vols just run around, game-night after
game-night, which is why Tennessee had trouble putting away a team like Butler
despite enjoying numerous physical mismatches. In this game, there are no real physical
mismatches for Tennessee to enjoy. Instead of wild drives to the hole by A.J. Graves
and Michael Green of Butler ? wispy by comparison to Louisville?s guards ? Tennessee
will have to defend against stronger finishers, and an offense that benefits overall from
the versatility of 6-11 Scott Padgett. The Vols? usual pressure ? if they choose to employ
it ? figures to be wasted against the coach who wrote the book on pressing defense.
?Hello, Bruce. We?re Louisville, remember? We practice against this stuff even if we may
not show it in every game like you do!? The strategy chosen by Boise State?s Greg
Graham against Louisville was to ?pack it in a little bit and take away the paint. The 3-
point game [34.8%] is not their strong suit.? Yet Louisville hit 12-of-24 three-pointers
against Boise despite early foul trouble against Padgett. Tennessee probably has better
shooters overall and their assist-to-turnover ratio is much better, but they also played
many games against do pey and young SEC opponents and struggled twice against
Kentucky?s physical game. But their ability to hit tough shots must be respected.
LOUISVILLE, 74-73.
UCLA over Western Kentucky by 17
The double-digit points will look attractive to many, but Western Kentucky rebounds
will be few and far between in this affair. The Hilltoppers would like the reason for that
to be an overabundance of their own 3-pointers dropping through the hoop, but as the
game progresses, their make-rate figures to decline from using too much energy to keep
pace with UCLA?s overall efficiencies on both ends of the floor. WKU head coach
Darrin Horn might force Ben Howland to go small if Lee, Brazleton, Mendez-Valdez
and Rogers are on with their three-pointers, but playing with Shipp, Collison and
Westbrook on the floor at the same time is no problem for the Bruins, given the shooting
range of normal point-guard Collison, and Westbrook?s ability to play the point. A
three-ball barrage by Western Kentucky will do next-to-nothing in tagging productive
UCLA center Kevin Love with fouls, and even in a big vs. little match-up, the Bruins
can power their way to the hole for easy twos while Western Kentucky is firing up
lower-percentage shots from long-range. UCLA has too many ways to play, and too
many players that know how to get it done. Western Kentucky isn?t physical enough to
give the Bruins any cause to pause and figure it all out ? like Texas A&M did. UCLA,
81-64.
Xavier over West Virginia by 4
While current West Virginia head coach Bob Huggins? tenure at Cincinnati overlapped
with Sean Miller?s at Xavier, the Musketeers were 2-0 ATS against Huggins? Bearcats.
But Huggie Bear does have some knowledge of the senior Xavier players Stanley Burrell
and Josh Duncan, because both played against his Cincinnati team in 2005. We admire
Xavier a lot, because near the end of the regular season, they were playing uphill on the
A-10 road, getting key players with two and three fouls against them in the first half,
yet beating teams with winning records anyway. Our Executive Club won back-to-back
game-day releases with them last weekend and the Musketeers are now, surprisingly
enough, 15-15 ATS for the year. If you like Xavier, your worst fear is often 5-7 point
guard Drew Lavender driving inside shooting layups. He can?t get close enough to the
hoop for his layups to be the gimmes that they are for others. But West Virginia is not
a defense with shot-swatting length or intimidating bulk. Lavender should be okay.
West Virginia had the best mid-range offensive game in the Big East, but Xavier?s offensive
percentages are better across the board, with five double-digit scorers, Burrell
almost making it six, and West Virginia not quite there in the rebounding department
to take advantage of Xavier?s suspect board work. XAVIER, 78-74
