Outrights:
"It's all about guts and heart in this format." (Sean O'Hair) And builds to rival a major as a test of endurance and mental fatigue . . . Or how about doing a lot to put pressure on an opponent, or frustrate an opponent (a Nick O'Hern type on the right course would fit the bill beautifully), so one side keeps walking off the green wondering, "what the hell just happened there", after an apparent advantage produces nothing, and before long the frustration creeps into their tee shots on the next hole, and eventually that player is pressing at exactly the wrong time, and the match has slipped away . . . So that's one type of player to try to identify, while being bulletproof (more or less) and superior is the preferred response if you are backing the other player that's engaged in one of these dramas.
So, IMO there's legitimacy in a starting point for capping this event in trying to identify the two types of underdogs and favorites that come into this event filling those types of profiles, without initial regard to the particular draw . . . and equal legitimacy in focusing first on opportunities presented by the draw, which is the special path in this event that leads to a profitable semi-final berth . . . of course, both components are huge and have to be evaluated, but I think the first or biggest focus can be on either.
Charles Howell(40/1) e.w.
- - My catechism forbids me from picking up a winning marker unless I am almost willing to bet both my eye teeth that it's the thing to do. In this "on the heels of" spot, I'm amazed at the lack of mentions for CHIII across the board by the media, mugs and gurus. With the weight of the world lifted off his shoulders, I see CHIII of the moment with exactly the right stuff to make a deep run before saying bye-bye.
Aaron Baddeley(66/1) e.w.
- - My instinct was to oppose Badds at Pebble Beach, then I told myself how in command of the moment he had looked at Phoenix, and how big I had viewed his potential to stand out "years ago", and instead I almost found a matchup for backing him there. Lo and behold, his performance there landed him on my short list for Fought's risk/reward match play venue in the Tucson desert, and nothing about Riviera, the draw or his price tells me to abandon that plan.
Paul Casey(35/1 and 10/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ thegreek and 5dimes
- - It's not the price that's tempting me in, and I usually back Casey when he is riding higher on a streak of his fearless best. Nevertheless, I think he's a tough out this week if he gets past the opening hurdle of Mike Weir (which I view as a mixed blessing of being very dangerous but just the right tone setter if it goes well) . . . I'm not likely to ever be surprised about Casey's ability to write chapters in his lore like, hmmm, a "walk-off hole-in-one" to close out his week at the K Club, and I think he's invested a part of himself in getting ready for this week's desert stage.
Davis Love(42/1 and 8/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - If this venue isn't a better fit than La Costa for some of the "bomb it and play it" tactics of the modern game, then I'll have to admit my assessment was wrong, wrong, wrong, because I certainly see it that way. Whereas David Toms(33/1) in 2005 was my strongest play ever in this event, and one of my most confident plays in all of 2005, it's the change of venue that has me thinking Furyk and Toms don't create a menacing make-up to the top half of the Gary Player bracket. Hence no surprise that "another name with 3 sticks behind it" catches my eye in this bracket for consideration as the first player over age 40 to go out and win this grueling championship. Love launched the season with much promise and this could well be just the spot for signing in and carrying on with a second wind to close out the West Coast segment; he has proven match play ability, and the failure of last year's Ryder Cup quest as a thorn in his side that is still in need of some closure; and he's got his own disappointments on this here stage to create some additional dues paying history - so there is no shortage of palpable angles to support the play.
Lucas Glover(160/1 and 25/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ 5dimes and thegreek
- - As of 24 hours ago I figured on stopping with the first four plays. But while capping this year's event, it sank in as writing down in my notes for future reference material, that by Day 2 of this event, I'm frequently wishing I had opted for several choices that had just missed out on my final cuts, rather than the crew I put up. Last year, Geoff Ogilvy was very high on that list, and Zach Johnson was at least on the list, and Nick O'Hern was high on the list in 2005 (while the aforementioned David Toms in 2005 is the only one that was in my plays that I've hit out of the ballpark) . . . As I look at my slate for this year, it's worked out that I'm light on veteran experience and probably too heavily invested in very young players. Lastly, I'll note that in this event, I'm used to having more strong feelings about individual matches and not a lot of strong reads on tournament futures, but this year I feel inverted and think some opportunities with the futures seem better grounded than my feel for the matchups. Fortunately, a decent start to the season and a sweet win last week makes it fairly easy to rationalize an expanded card for this week if it feels worth doing, which it does, so choices need making between Henry/Glover/Jimenez/Stenson, DiMarco/Els, Rollins/Karlsson/Toms, and Fasth/Stricker (I think that's the list). So I'll start by adding another whippersnapper in Lucas Glover, who is poised to come to life and make plenty of noise this season, and any additional outrights and certainly at least one matchup play will get posted when the deed is done, likely in the last minutes before the off.
GL
"It's all about guts and heart in this format." (Sean O'Hair) And builds to rival a major as a test of endurance and mental fatigue . . . Or how about doing a lot to put pressure on an opponent, or frustrate an opponent (a Nick O'Hern type on the right course would fit the bill beautifully), so one side keeps walking off the green wondering, "what the hell just happened there", after an apparent advantage produces nothing, and before long the frustration creeps into their tee shots on the next hole, and eventually that player is pressing at exactly the wrong time, and the match has slipped away . . . So that's one type of player to try to identify, while being bulletproof (more or less) and superior is the preferred response if you are backing the other player that's engaged in one of these dramas.
So, IMO there's legitimacy in a starting point for capping this event in trying to identify the two types of underdogs and favorites that come into this event filling those types of profiles, without initial regard to the particular draw . . . and equal legitimacy in focusing first on opportunities presented by the draw, which is the special path in this event that leads to a profitable semi-final berth . . . of course, both components are huge and have to be evaluated, but I think the first or biggest focus can be on either.
Charles Howell(40/1) e.w.
- - My catechism forbids me from picking up a winning marker unless I am almost willing to bet both my eye teeth that it's the thing to do. In this "on the heels of" spot, I'm amazed at the lack of mentions for CHIII across the board by the media, mugs and gurus. With the weight of the world lifted off his shoulders, I see CHIII of the moment with exactly the right stuff to make a deep run before saying bye-bye.
Aaron Baddeley(66/1) e.w.
- - My instinct was to oppose Badds at Pebble Beach, then I told myself how in command of the moment he had looked at Phoenix, and how big I had viewed his potential to stand out "years ago", and instead I almost found a matchup for backing him there. Lo and behold, his performance there landed him on my short list for Fought's risk/reward match play venue in the Tucson desert, and nothing about Riviera, the draw or his price tells me to abandon that plan.
Paul Casey(35/1 and 10/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ thegreek and 5dimes
- - It's not the price that's tempting me in, and I usually back Casey when he is riding higher on a streak of his fearless best. Nevertheless, I think he's a tough out this week if he gets past the opening hurdle of Mike Weir (which I view as a mixed blessing of being very dangerous but just the right tone setter if it goes well) . . . I'm not likely to ever be surprised about Casey's ability to write chapters in his lore like, hmmm, a "walk-off hole-in-one" to close out his week at the K Club, and I think he's invested a part of himself in getting ready for this week's desert stage.
Davis Love(42/1 and 8/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ 5dimes
- - If this venue isn't a better fit than La Costa for some of the "bomb it and play it" tactics of the modern game, then I'll have to admit my assessment was wrong, wrong, wrong, because I certainly see it that way. Whereas David Toms(33/1) in 2005 was my strongest play ever in this event, and one of my most confident plays in all of 2005, it's the change of venue that has me thinking Furyk and Toms don't create a menacing make-up to the top half of the Gary Player bracket. Hence no surprise that "another name with 3 sticks behind it" catches my eye in this bracket for consideration as the first player over age 40 to go out and win this grueling championship. Love launched the season with much promise and this could well be just the spot for signing in and carrying on with a second wind to close out the West Coast segment; he has proven match play ability, and the failure of last year's Ryder Cup quest as a thorn in his side that is still in need of some closure; and he's got his own disappointments on this here stage to create some additional dues paying history - so there is no shortage of palpable angles to support the play.
Lucas Glover(160/1 and 25/1 for Top 4) e.w. @ 5dimes and thegreek
- - As of 24 hours ago I figured on stopping with the first four plays. But while capping this year's event, it sank in as writing down in my notes for future reference material, that by Day 2 of this event, I'm frequently wishing I had opted for several choices that had just missed out on my final cuts, rather than the crew I put up. Last year, Geoff Ogilvy was very high on that list, and Zach Johnson was at least on the list, and Nick O'Hern was high on the list in 2005 (while the aforementioned David Toms in 2005 is the only one that was in my plays that I've hit out of the ballpark) . . . As I look at my slate for this year, it's worked out that I'm light on veteran experience and probably too heavily invested in very young players. Lastly, I'll note that in this event, I'm used to having more strong feelings about individual matches and not a lot of strong reads on tournament futures, but this year I feel inverted and think some opportunities with the futures seem better grounded than my feel for the matchups. Fortunately, a decent start to the season and a sweet win last week makes it fairly easy to rationalize an expanded card for this week if it feels worth doing, which it does, so choices need making between Henry/Glover/Jimenez/Stenson, DiMarco/Els, Rollins/Karlsson/Toms, and Fasth/Stricker (I think that's the list). So I'll start by adding another whippersnapper in Lucas Glover, who is poised to come to life and make plenty of noise this season, and any additional outrights and certainly at least one matchup play will get posted when the deed is done, likely in the last minutes before the off.
GL
