AFL Round 7

[AussieVamp2]

Well, Tabcorp wins again, only one with lines up already it seems.

AFL R7 MELBOURNE-WST BULLDG 11/5
7:42:00 PM on Friday, May 11, 2001
1010 MELBOURNE Open $1.50
1016 WESTERN BULLDOGS Open $2.40

AFL R7 RICHMOND-ESSENDON 12/5
2:12:00 PM on Saturday, May 12, 2001
1005 ESSENDON Open $1.22
1012 RICHMOND Open $3.75

AFL R7 ST KILDA-HAWTHORN 12/5
7:02:00 PM on Saturday, May 12, 2001
1008 HAWTHORN Open $1.40
1013 ST KILDA Open $2.70


AFL R7 ADELAIDE-FREMANTLE 12/5
7:42:00 PM on Saturday, May 12, 2001
1001 ADELAIDE Open $1.16
1006 FREMANTLE Open $4.50

AFL R7 COLLINGWD-KANGAROOS 13/5
2:12:00 PM on Sunday, May 13, 2001
1004 COLLINGWOOD Open $1.50
1009 KANGAROOS Open $2.40

AFL R7 GEELONG-CARLTON 13/5
2:14:00 PM on Sunday, May 13, 2001
1003 CARLTON Open $1.55
1007 GEELONG Open $2.30

AFL R7 SYDNEY-BRISBANE 13/5
2:13:00 PM on Sunday, May 13, 2001
1002 BRISBANE Open $1.90
1014 SYDNEY Open $1.80

AFL R7 WEST COAST-PORT ADEL 13/5
4:12:00 PM on Sunday, May 13, 2001
1011 PORT ADELAIDE Open $1.33
1015 WEST COAST Open $3.00

 

[AussieVamp2]

and it is still bloody Essendon, and raffle for second

RATINGS LADDER 
Essendon 44.13 
Carlton 12.11 
Brisbane 10.97 
Port Adelaide 10.31 
Richmond 9.51 
Melbourne 9.43 
Hawthorn 9.19 
Sydney 3.76 
Collingwood 0.53 
Western Bulldogs -4.56 
Adelaide -6.90 
Geelong -11.31 
Kangaroos -13.67 
West Coast -17.93 
St. Kilda -24.59 
Fremantle -31.08

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

I can already see some early value this week with Essendon (who will show that Richmond are not as good as everyone thinks), Carlton (who will confirm that Geelong are weak this year) and Brisbane (who will finally put it together away from home).

I'll have a good look at all the games and put up my plays later in the week.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Hmm, those were my first three leans too.

Be interesting to see the Swans personnel situation.

I should just keep writing 'what he said'

 

[AussieVamp2]

Another thought on Essendon

Last year, when Essendon was in super form and not slacking it off like at the end of the season, bookies would not put out a big enough handicap on them, so to speak - so must be a reason.

If you put out say, a 60 point one perhaps you always get the money the other way - and if it rains you could be in big trouble, too, of course.

A lot of points to give up, 40, even, of course.

However, over AFL history, average 'best' team is around the 20 mark, rating wise, i.e. 3-4 goals better than an 'average' team.

Essendon is STILL around the 40+ mark. It is ridiculous, really. Super team number. Although have not covered as much this year of course, as coaches may have worked them out a little more (depending where you had backed the game v Port of course).

PF-PA thing would show they would be averaging about 6 goals a game more than opposition too, I think - and that is with 1 loss.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Date Home Score Away Score League
01-07-2000 2:10:00 PM Richmond 66 Essendon 167 Australian Football League
16-03-2000 7:40:00 PM Essendon 130 Richmond 87 Australian Football League
20-08-1999 7:40:00 PM Essendon 147 Richmond 89 Australian Football League
01-05-1999 2:10:00 PM Richmond 78 Essendon 113 Australian Football League


Richmond is currently better, but how much better? Give the line likely to be 30something.

 

[AussieVamp2]

and an interesting note on the Brisbane/Swans front

Swans to escape Eade's axe
By Ray Kershler

Tuesday, May 08, 2001

SYDNEY Swans coach Rodney Eade said yesterday heads would roll after the disappointing weekend loss to St Kilda -- if only he had other heads to replace them.

Eade yesterday indicated there were at least six players he would like to drop based on last week's game -- but he does not have six replacements.

Young ruckman Stephen Doyle has impressed with his form at the affiliate club Port Melbourne and looks set to make his season debut next Sunday against the Brisbane Lions at the SCG.

Matthew Nicks should return from injury allowing Eade to axe two players but his options in other regards are limited.

Eade yesterday gave only qualified support to his captain Andrew Dunkley who blasted his team after the St Kilda game and revealed details in yesterday's issue of The Daily Telegraph.

Dunkley said some players were selfish and did not care enough about teammates and the club.

''I'd say if he had his time over again he might not say that publicly. By the same token I don't think there will be any fallout from it,'' Eade said.

''It will probably spur some players on. Some of the things he said I'd think you'd probably keep in house and talk to players individually but I suppose he's giving reasons why he thinks we surrendered half way through the second quarter.

''He's probably at a loss -- like a lot of people. They've just got to bounce back this week and show they do care and they have a real care for each other and the club.''

 

[AussieVamp2]

Dunkley blasts selfish Swans
By Doug Stewart

Monday, May 07, 2001

SWANS skipper Andrew Dunkley yesterday said too many of his teammates were selfish and did not care enough about each other and their club as their season threatened to destruct.

Dunkley's broadside came after the Swans appalling 26-point surrender to St Kilda on Saturday and he made sure each and every player knew his feelings.

As soon as coach Rodney Eade finished his post-match address on Saturday, Dunkley asked the match committee to leave him alone with the team.

''I thought it was pretty important to sit down and sort out a few home truths,'' Dunkley said.

''I wanted the players to be honest with each other and everyone spoke.

''Time's running out for me as a player and I'm not going to finish up the way we played against St Kilda. I won't accept it, I can't accept it.

''I think we have too many people who are too concerned with their private lives; they're not keen enough to do it for each other and for the club.

''The club looks after us, we're well paid, we get it pretty easy up in Sydney and guys have to starting hurting more. Footy's not as important as it should be for some guys.''

It was almost an hour after Dunkley ordered the team lock-up that the Swans emerged but it will a week before they can demonstrate whether the soul-searching had any effect.

Without doubt they have massive problems just three weeks after they were on top of the competition table.

Eade observed his players ''for some unknown reason just stopped'' when they had a 15-point lead midway through the second quarter.

The Sydney coach also conceded that ''when we get behind, we panic a bit''.

Combining those two mindsets, the Swans are no good when they are in front or when they trail, leaving them as a very fragile outfit.

However Dunkley was not just hard on his teammates after they were ''pathetic and disgraceful in the last quarter''.

''My last quarter was very disappointing. I was embarrassed,'' Dunkley said.

''But after the match I asked the team whether other players felt for me.

''Barry Hall kicked four goals on me but I reckon I only could've done something about one of them -- our pressure was pathetic. Unless players want to help their teammates, to stop them looking stupid, we won't get better.

''At the end of the day it's up to us. We have to knuckle down and work harder. Maybe we're not as good as we think we are.''

Dunkley knows his players will face an intense week of media scrutiny leading into Sunday's SCG match against Brisbane but in some ways welcomed the harsh reviews.

''We deserve it,'' Dunkley said. ''Maybe it's time individuals were named and put in the spotlight. We've got to be bigger than that. It's just another excuse.

''People say we've got injuries and say we'll be better when (Paul) Kelly's back but basically, on paper we were a better side than St Kilda.''

Dunkley nominated defender Jason Saddington as the only Swan who could be proud of his efforts against St Kilda after he blotted out their star recruit Aaron Hamill.

The Swans are still in the eight and have the opportunity to resurrect their season with three consecutive SCG games against Brisbane Lions, the Western Bulldogs and Fremantle Dockers.

 

[Cartman88]

Mmmmm ..... making a confident Brisbane look rather nice this week.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yeah, if this doesn't fire the Swans up, the backbiting should help out nicely

gotta see what happens to Akermanis, too

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Question for my friends down under.

I see that sia has odds to win the AFL PREMIERSHIP OUTRIGHT 2001.

Essendon is +110 (American odds).

Now, at risk of embarrassing myself, if Essendon is truly 30+ pts better than any of the also-rans, isn't a better than even-money return to win it all very good value?

I realize we're talking a different scoring scale than American football. But seems to me it would take an act of god to knock off a tm that is so substantially above the rest of the pack.

Thx for any insight on this.

GL to my mates down under.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Well, not an act of good, injury to 2 or 3 key players will make them beatable. See 1999.

That price was 2.50 - 2.75 at the start of the season.

Not at the level of last year yet, so I certainly would not take even money on futures with 16 rounds to go. Have been beaten once already, and worked out a little bit more, too.

 

[Cartman88]

Here are my thoughts on AFL Round 7. I usually like to post later in the week to confirm judiciary/injuries but unfortunately I will be stuck at work. After studying the matchups there is heaps of value this week in my opinion. I have tried to be selective and pick out the best 3 plays but I have also pointed out some others which I do favour as well. As always you may find better lines if you shop around.

Melbourne $1.55 (-14.5) vs Wstn Bulldogs $2.40 (+14.5) @ MCG Fri 7.40pm AEST

Playing Wstn Bulldogs +14.5

Interesting matchup to start the round. I think the Wstn Bulldogs are better than the 2-4 record suggests. The past 2 weeks they were beaten (but not disgraced) against form teams Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, but they do have strong wins to their credit against Richmond and Brisbane. They are boosted by the return of Darcy and Liberatore who they have really missed. Melbourne have been going along nicely and presently are 4-2 for the season. But they have the worst percentage of the Top 8 sides and looking at it further they have only beaten Adelaide Geelong Sydney and Fremantle. They will probably get White back in the side but still no Farmer. Historically the Wstn Bulldogs have dominated this match winning the past 5 times they have met, and I think they can produce a minor upset here. If the MCG is slippery then the bet is even stronger as the Wstn Bulldogs thrive when the ball is on the ground.

Richmond $3.50 (+28.5) vs Essendon $1.28 (-28.5) @ MCG Sat 2.10pm AEST

No Play but favour Essendon ?28.5

For the past 2 weeks everyone has been saying that Richmond might the real deal this year. They beat the West Coast over in WA and they beat the Kangaroos. Richmond have been impressive with their 5-1 start to the year, and this week we see for sure just how much improvement they have made. They meet a champion Essendon team filled with talent and depth. Some important matchups with Richardson/Fletcher, Gasper/Lloyd and possibly Kellaway/Hird. There is also some debate about whether Richmond will attempt to flood as this seems to be the theory on how to beat Essendon. There are enough unknown factors for me not to bet on this one, but my gut feeling is that Essendon will once again prove how they good are and win easily.

Adelaide $1.20 (-34.5) vs Fremantle $4.00 (+34.5) @ Footy Park Sat 7.40pm AEST

No Play

After a slow start to the year Adelaide have found some solid form. In the past 3 weeks they have beaten Carlton, beaten the Kangaroos, and put up a brave performance against frontrunners Hawthorn. Fremantle on the other hand have not won a match but if you look back on the their games they have been very competitive for at least 3 quarters against some very good sides. They are not in good shape this week though with their midfield missing Bell (and possibly Haselby), their forward line missing Modra and Koops, and to top it off their coach is under huge pressure. Adelaide have won their last 4 at Footy Park vs Fremantle and I expect the run will continue, but no way I will be backing an average side at ?34.5 pts.

St Kilda $2.50 (+19.5) vs Hawthorn $1.50 (-19.5) @ Colonial Sat 7.40pm AEST

No Play but favour Hawthorn ?19.5

Disappointed these 2 teams are meeting each other as I would have considered backing either side against other opposition. I went against the grain and tipped St Kilda last week and they did the job against an out of form Sydney. But I am not getting too carried away with that win especially with three key players Harvey/Jones/Callaghan missing from their midfield this week. Hawthorn have done nothing wrong as they have cruised to their best ever start at 6-0 for the season. The biggest question mark I have with Hawthorn now is whether they can keep lifting and keep performing every week. If they do I believe they will win and also think they will cover the spread, but no bets for me on this one.

Collingwood $1.55 (-15.5) vs Kangaroos $2.45 (+15.5) @ Colonial Sun 2.10pm AEST

No Play

Here we have a Collingwood side building in confidence meeting a Kangaroos team with their backs against the wall. It is the worst start to a season I can recall for the Kangaroos who are 1-5 and clearly have the lowest percentage (under 60% - not helped by poor final quarter performances). The only game they won was in the mud against Geelong. Logically it seems that Collingwood should win, but Dennis Pagan has an uncanny ability to lift teams under huge pressure and get them to produce their best. Wayne Carey has been very quiet this year but I expect him to have a big game. Bottom line is I am in two minds so leaving this game alone.

Sydney $1.85 (NL) vs Brisbane $1.95 (NL) @ SCG Sun 2.10pm AEST

Playing Brisbane @ $1.95

After an over-rated start to the year where Sydney beat some average sides, they have lost 3 in a row and looked fairly ugly in the process. They are lacking structure and just making too many mistakes. Brisbane have definitely under-achieved in my opinion yet they still lie 6th on the ladder. But I think Brisbane are hitting their straps now after a huge final quarter against Fremantle and an easy win over Geelong. The biggest concern with Brisbane is that generally they don?t play well away from home. Fortunately the SCG is the exception to the rule for them where they have won in 1999 and 2000. I think Brisbane are a great bet.

Geelong $2.40 (+13.5) vs Carlton $1.55 (-13.5) @ MCG Sun 2.10pm AEST

Playing Carlton ?13.5

Geelong started the year 2-0 but the writing has been on the wall ever since with 4 straight losses. Their midfield is getting hammered, and they are a pleasure to bet against at the moment. Carlton have been patchy this year which is reflected by their 3-3 record. I think once Whitnall and Koutoufides strike form then Carlton will produce their best. Certainly their have more than enough talent to beat Geelong and cover the spread.

West Coast $3.00 (+24.5) vs Port Adelaide $1.38 (-24.5) @ Subiaco Sun 4.30pm AEST

No Play but favour Port Adelaide ?24.5

Port Adelaide have done nothing wrong this year. They won the pre-season Ansett Cup and have started the season 5-1. They only lost one game which was to Essendon and they showed some good fight in the final quarter of that match. West Coast on the other hand are 2-4 but will be doing it tough without Gardiner and Cousins. Subiaco Oval is generally an equaliser for West Coast, but they have not played particularly well at home this season. Port Adelaide should win this game and should cover the spread, but it does take a good team to win by more than 4 goals at Subiaco Oval.

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

Wstn Bulldogs +14.5
Brisbane $1.95
Carlton -13.5

Good luck to everyone !!!!


[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 05-08-2001).]

 

[AussieVamp2]

On Geelong - Carlton


Date Home Score Away Score League
11-06-2000 2:10:00 PM Carlton 107 Geelong 97 Australian Football League
15-08-1999 2:10:00 PM Geelong 113 Carlton 104 Australian Football League
24-04-1999 2:10:00 PM Carlton 65 Geelong 115 Australian Football League
06-06-1998 Geelong 80 Carlton 63 Australian Football League
16-08-1997 Geelong 95 Carlton 67 Australian Football League


The Blues have had a fair bit of trouble against them recently, and for a team struggling to kick an average score, not sure I would want a handicap - if I bet that way, and not sure I like that game at all, it would be moneyline.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Don't think can possibly go against Essendon getting less than 5 goals, geez. Getting tempting that one.

Actually have put together some numbers, so more later on that.

 

[Anders]

Great write-ups Cartman, and like the look of the picks too. GL

 

[AussieVamp2]

Just looking at the numbers, that last Kangaroos game was Fitzroyesque.

Weather forecast in Adelaide is fine for weekend, too, so I guess potential Big Dockers choke #87 is still on.

 

[AussieVamp2]

On Richmond - have been defensively impressive, although opposition not so flash so far, but still very nice - so that will be necessary v Essendon - be interesting to see how the odds move, if they do - so again as Cartman says, that would be one reason to stay away from a reasonable sized handicap and think moneyline on Essendon.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Port Adelaide - looks like they have improved fundamentally and it is not a mirage, quite impressive looking stats so far.

Took a small step up last year, but now further.

Improved in several key areas, finally.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Brisbane

truly terrible away the first two games - but statwise, should not have gone down to the Bulldogs like they did, so perhaps that was a sign of improve

also suspect new statisticians in the game vs Richmond, or people that did not know what they were doing with Brisbane - if they did, that was woeful. Scored more tan they sould have for that.

Currently have the biggest home-road performance dichotomy of anybody, was not like that last year.