Aussy Open 2004!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kickserv]

Day 14 Picks
----------------


well........before the tourney started I picked Safin to win the tourney at odds of $41.00......so come on Safin :firing: :jump: :shade: :com:


Safin/Fed Over 40.5 Total Games $1.91 *2.5 units

N.ZIMONJIC/E.BOVINA beat L.PAES/M.NAVRATILOVA $2.80 *1 unit

Safin to win the first set $2.65 *1 unit

Safin +1.5 sets $1.88 *1 unit




yes..........everyone thinks Fed is going to destroy Safin.....and they very well might be right, I just think Safin will have one of those "in the zone" serving days and might actually be able to hang with Fed.......bottom line....this match depends on two things:

1) Safin Fitness
2) Safin serve

I think Safin will do fine with both, if I'm wrong Fed will destroy him. If I'm right I'll hit some of the above bets, and who knows he might just win the dam thing


oh and think it's about dam time Martina looses a friggen match, I'm taking a shot on the mixed

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

LE.....I got Safin at $41.00 (Future).......so ummmmm I'll be cheering for the Russian :tongue

I win that weeeeeeeeeeew baby will I be happy

yeah i forgot u had him....oh well....one of us will be happy....good luck on ur doubles play and ur props....and....thats it

 

[kickserv]

well LE......can't go wrong backing Fed....the guy is friggen amazing......so good luck.....well sort of

 

[Anders]

Kyle - u must be playing a hedge on Fed, right?? :shrug:

 

[kickserv]

I knew somebody was going to ask me that......

answer NO......after all it is called gambling :tongue


as I always say....if ya make a play on something stick with it....

and oh ya.....I'm greedy


there.......how about that for an answer :tongue

 

[wannabe whale]

Anders.
Where you been buddy-a tourney down your way and I haven't seen you at all?? How are things??

 

[beast2]

A win to Henin-Hardenne after some stressful moments has given me a win on my outright womens play. Henin looked to be cruising up 1 set to 0 and 4-2 but then Clijsters turned it around winning the next 4 games. Then 4-0 up the 3rd I thought I was watching a repeat when the score got to 4-3. Henin got the lucky line call and went on to win the tournament and give me a winning bet.

Record to Date: 11-11 for +3.25 Units

Mens Final
No Play

If I had to make a pick it would be Federer as his current standard of play is as good as you could hope to see.

Craig

 

[Anders]

Kyle - ok, confirmed now that yer a crazy Canadian
Hedge man, take the g'teed profit ...
Would wish ya luck but I've got Rog at the futures - and yes, I've hedged on Marat ...

WW - great tourney mate I also enjoyed yer parlay and chalk work, good to see diff 'capping styles, teaching us a bit...
Um, been posting elsewhere, respects to Jack, no name...

 

[LET'S EAT!!!]

yessssssss!!

yessssssss!!

thank you fed-dog!! i needed that one this guy was something else huh? he methodically toyed with the russian before taking him apart...thought it was a great display of his dominance....yeah maybe safin's serve wasnt as good as it was against agassi but it still looked powerful....and he would of had more aces if he wasnt playing federer...he returned alot of his 1st serves that were great serves and many of them would have been aces against just about anyone else....fed started a little rocky in the 1st,as he normally does, and then put a strangle hold on safin midway through the second before blowing through him in the 3rd....it's amazing to see how his consistent dominant play breaks down his opponent mentally....you could tell right after the 1st set tie break loss that safin knew he was in over his head and he started to get very frustrated early in the 2nd and then the lights went out....fed very rarely makes 2 or 3 mistakes in a row and that was the case here and safin knew he didnt have an answer for him....safins a great player who had a great run in the tourney and he beat 2 of the top 5 out there...sure we'll see much more great tennis from him as long as he stays healthy....i wonder how much of an effect the record he set for most games played had on him in this match....he didnt appear tired but i dont know enough about the game to accurately tell one way or the other....either way he's a workhorse who left it all out there....he was just overmatched....which is usually the case with federer...anyway enough out of me guys....see ya all next tourney and thanks again roger you fvckin stud....le

 

[wannabe whale]

2004 Aussie Open Final Stats

Props
11-2 +19.82

Parlays
16-7 + 14.37

M/Ups
23-16 + 34.70

Futures
Hit Federer @ 5/1
+4.5

Overall
50-25 +73.39

The Aussie Open is probably my least favorite to wager on. It is hard to get a handle on how the players are playing when you can't watch them-the coverage here in the US in PATHETIC. What do I even have the Tennis Channel on my cable for if I can't get any matches?? ESPN's coverage is a joke-I can tell you almost how every hand turned out in the WSOP-I have seen each one on 50 times repeated.
The two best players in the world won. If you ever wanted to cash on Roger THIS was your chance. He was not the betting favorite and his matches were relatively low odds wise. Looking back the odds in the finals were a JOKE. Safin has guts abd is good-but it was obvious this was Federer's tourney. It is at this point that any bookie will take notice and I am sure Rog's odds will steadily increase. Federer was the MAN. JHH deserved to win as well. Would liked to have seen Clijsters play a better final-but she too was outclassed on the court. Would not have taken JHH in the futures as she was too low-thought Clijsters was the right bargain and got my money's worth.
It was great tourney for me-my stategy for tennis is the same as most sports. I select who I think is going to win and I look for VALUE. I don't mind backing a -1000 favorite if they are going to give you that edge. FAVORITES win a majority of the time in tennis-most people know who is going to win the early matches. I like to take some of the sting off-by using them in parlays. However, I have seen Kickserve dominate by snatching up some doggies as well-finding that Value.

Kick-I "challenged" you-because you are that good. You actually did not have that bad of a tourney considering the low percentage of pups that cashed. You will be that more dangerous the next time out. It was fun and got me back into tennis.
Farewell from Down Under
WW

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

2004 Aussie Open Final Stats

Props
11-2 +19.82

Parlays
16-7 + 14.37

M/Ups
23-16 + 34.70

Futures
Hit Federer @ 5/1
+4.5

Overall
50-25 +73.39

The Aussie Open is probably my least favorite to wager on. It is hard to get a handle on how the players are playing when you can't watch them-the coverage here in the US in PATHETIC. What do I even have the Tennis Channel on my cable for if I can't get any matches?? ESPN's coverage is a joke-I can tell you almost how every hand turned out in the WSOP-I have seen each one on 50 times repeated.
The two best players in the world won. If you ever wanted to cash on Roger THIS was your chance. He was not the betting favorite and his matches were relatively low odds wise. Looking back the odds in the finals were a JOKE. Safin has guts abd is good-but it was obvious this was Federer's tourney. It is at this point that any bookie will take notice and I am sure Rog's odds will steadily increase. Federer was the MAN. JHH deserved to win as well. Would liked to have seen Clijsters play a better final-but she too was outclassed on the court. Would not have taken JHH in the futures as she was too low-thought Clijsters was the right bargain and got my money's worth.
It was great tourney for me-my stategy for tennis is the same as most sports. I select who I think is going to win and I look for VALUE. I don't mind backing a -1000 favorite if they are going to give you that edge. FAVORITES win a majority of the time in tennis-most people know who is going to win the early matches. I like to take some of the sting off-by using them in parlays. However, I have seen Kickserve dominate by snatching up some doggies as well-finding that Value.

Kick-I "challenged" you-because you are that good. You actually did not have that bad of a tourney considering the low percentage of pups that cashed. You will be that more dangerous the next time out. It was fun and got me back into tennis.
Farewell from Down Under
WW

that's one of the classiest and most insightful (for tennis, anyways...) post i've ever seen on here.

well done WW.

 

[kickserv]

well three words.......Fed is good


and whale.........one word........ wow


LE.................good to see ya happy



Anders......yep I'm crazy :tongue



Tennis Record
-------------------

Sides: 341-451
Parlay: 40-47
Props and Futures: 25-64

+20.24 units profit