Bason 2019-2020 Season

[tt boy]

Lyon wins 2nd half 2-1 :toast::toast:

 

[Crookity]

Yeah, second half only. In game is for you young men, not for the older guys. Just a long shot bet with a little house money. Man City can not play much worse, so I expect them to come out on fire, but Lyon is no slouch. That first half was an even game.

Nice read on this game, I didn't see that coming. I had Man City to close out a few parlays, but luckily got some back with the over. Time to look at the Bayern lines now lol

 

[BASON]

Thanks Crook!

Nothing better than a +1400 winner. I told myself if it happen to hit, I get a new computer. Soccer gods were kind to me today.

Guardiola made the same mistake Simeone did. They both did not take their opponent seriously enough and altered their starting lineups. You just can not do this at this level.

Bayern line will be thru the roof but I expect them to handle them. Need to see the initial total. My guess it will open at 3.5.

Can not believe there are 2 German and 2 French teams in the semi-final. What would have those odds been?

 

[BASON]

I am not in love with tomorrow's game. Very tough game to cap given how well both teams are playing. Going with a smaller play on:

Sevilla Pk +110

They have just been phenomenal defensively, they play great in this competition and they play well against English teams. I think if one team wins this in regulation is will be them. Plus, I love routing against Man U.

Also making a small play on:

FH Draw +105

It is an obvious play but I will bite. See both sides playing it close to the vest in the FH and I think both will not mind going into the second 0-0.

 

[BASON]

When your hot, your hot. Not exactly the way I thought but another 2-0 day and Man U loses.

If you follow me, you know I have made a lot of money on Shakhtar over the years and they have been great money makers in Euro. BUT, I think their run may be over. I hate betting against them, but I already have Inter parlayed with the Sevilla ML from today so my bigger straight play is:

Inter TT Ov 1.5 -135

Shakhtar wins because of their offense, not their defense. Inter has won five straight, all against good competition, and has scored 2 in every game, so I see no reason they do not do that tomorrow. Lukaku is on fire and I expect him to score again tomorrow.

I suggest betting the team total now because I think it could move overnight. This is where I bet it and I see it moving up already. You want this at 1.5.

 

[johnnyb]

When your hot, your hot. Not exactly the way I thought but another 2-0 day and Man U loses.

If you follow me, you know I have made a lot of money on Shakhtar over the years and they have been great money makers in Euro. BUT, I think their run may be over. I hate betting against them, but I already have Inter parlayed with the Sevilla ML from today so my bigger straight play is:

Inter TT Ov 1.5 -135

Shakhtar wins because of their offense, not their defense. Inter has won five straight, all against good competition, and has scored 2 in every game, so I see no reason they do not do that tomorrow. Lukaku is on fire and I expect him to score again tomorrow.

I suggest betting the team total now because I think it could move overnight. This is where I bet it and I see it moving up already. You want this at 1.5.

En fuego. Incredible run. I always thought u were a Shakhtar supporter... lol


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[BASON]

I am a supporter of making money (yes, I have an affinity for Shakhtar, but they are not in Inter's league and it certainly showed) and I hope you all are making some because these kind of runs do not come around that often.

Take profits, build the bankroll and take some small risks with house money!!!

Now tomorrow's game is tough because Leipzig is a hard team to read right now and PSG is always difficult to read, but I have to cap it based on recent play. You also can not ignore the trends so:

PSG Ov 3 -109 - I already bet this and have it to finish another parlay (l love this format because I love to roll day over day parlays, so Inter finished one and I have it again with this over and Leipzig +310). PSG is lucky to have advanced while Leipzig was more than impressive against an Atletico team that underestimated them. Scoring 2 goals on them was impressive so I think they can do it again against a much lesser quality PSG defense. This could end up another push but it is worth a play because of Leipzig's style and PSG's weakness in the back. Plus, everything is going over (the trend is your friend). This line likely gets hit hard again overnight and the recent big overnight moves have all been right.

Leipzig TT Ov 1.5 +180 - Now this is a play I usually do not post, but anyone following should have some extra money so I am making this play because I am up, because I just have a feeling and we are getting paid for it. Of course PSG is getting the money and the love, but Leipzig is here for a reason, has the coaching advantage and should give them all they can handle, so I think they can score 2 on them. Worth a shot and I parlayed it with the Bayern TT.

 

[flapjack]

I am a supporter of making money (yes, I have an affinity for Shakhtar, but they are not in Inter's league and it certainly showed) and I hope you all are making some because these kind of runs do not come around that often.

Take profits, build the bankroll and take some small risks with house money!!!

Now tomorrow's game is tough because Leipzig is a hard team to read right now and PSG is always difficult to read, but I have to cap it based on recent play. You also can not ignore the trends so:

PSG Ov 3 -109 - I already bet this and have it to finish another parlay (l love this format because I love to roll day over day parlays, so Inter finished one and I have it again with this over and Leipzig +310). PSG is lucky to have advanced while Leipzig was more than impressive against an Atletico team that underestimated them. Scoring 2 goals on them was impressive so I think they can do it again against a much lesser quality PSG defense. This could end up another push but it is worth a play because of Leipzig's style and PSG's weakness in the back. Plus, everything is going over (the trend is your friend). This line likely gets hit hard again overnight and the recent big overnight moves have all been right.

Leipzig TT Ov 1.5 +180 - Now this is a play I usually do not post, but anyone following should have some extra money so I am making this play because I am up, because I just have a feeling and we are getting paid for it. Of course PSG is getting the money and the love, but Leipzig is here for a reason, has the coaching advantage and should give them all they can handle, so I think they can score 2 on them. Worth a shot and I parlayed it with the Bayern TT.

Awesome run. When you and the Kid agree on a game, its hammer city!
Should be a great final 3 games with all 4 managers building their reps on attacking football. I?m following you on those plays for sure.

I was thinking about taking a shot on both underdogs on the ML too. I know they?re both massively outmatched in individual talent, but I think in the managers box, Leipzig has a slight edge especially with little prep time for the way they play and PSGs open sometimes sloppy, selfish play. And, imho, Garcias one of the most underrated managers around. Lyon could/should get pummeled by that machine. But in a high pressure, single game cup competition, I?ll take Garcia over Flick all day if things go off script. I gotta believe there?s a decent chance one of them pulls it off. And, at those fat odds, house money, etc....

 

[BASON]

Thanks Flap.

I definitely think Leipzig has a chance in this game, but I am also in the minority. Nothing will really surprise me in this game as it is a tough one to cap in my opinion. PSG rarely blows teams out and they tend to keep teams in the game. Leipzig has the best young coach in the game and he will have this team ready. They will be aggressive and all the pressure is on PSG.

I will have more on the Bayern game later, but Lyon just beat Juventus and Man City, which is something that can not be ignored. I knew they would give City all they can handle and I expect them to play well tomorrow, but not sure they can pull off the win. Not much value at all in betting Bayern.

 

[BASON]

Taking PSG -110 in the second half. This is the Leipzig I expected in the first game with Atletico. PSG playing well and really dominating them. If Neymar can finish it is 4-0. Now Leipzig has to open up and PSG will take advantage of it and they can play lose with the lead. Think I can get my long shot TT bet back with PSG second half play and we should get at least a push with the over, but I think it comes in.

 

[BASON]

That game definitely should have went over. Neymar just can not finish. Plenty of chances. Oh well, another push on the PSG total. Definitely had the wrong feeling about Leipzig scoring but no big deal. Hopefully some saw the halftime play on PSG as it helped make it a decent day.

Now, onto Bayern, which everyone is going to love. I like Bayern in this game, but I see no value at all in the line or the ML. I am not laying 2 goals. Lyon beat Juventus and Man City to get there, so you can not underestimate them. They have some talent up front and Bayern's weakness is in the back. Barca actually exposed them a few times early in the first half but that did not matter in the end. My first play is:

Lyon Ov .5 -140

because I firmly believe they will get one in this game. They have speed upfront and Bayern struggles with speed. I will be surprised if this does not hit.

I do think there will be goals in this game, but I am waiting to see how this total line moves overnight. I may play it on the alternative line Ov 3 versus the 3.5. Will update in the morning.

I hope FIFA opens their eyes to how great this format is. I know they will not change due to the money, but the single game format is so much better for multiple reasons. Bottom line, we get better games. I have loved these last two weeks.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Bason 2019-2020 Season

I love it , especially with 2 a days i can watch between practices so it?s perfect! I just don?t see how it would work normally with games when you are getting then played mid week between domestic matches?


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[BASON]

I agree Kid, it is tough, but if could be done, just not everyday like it is now. They have admitted that they like this format, but that it would be more difficult to schedule, but I think the scheduling is doable. I think it is more about money as teams lose home games. Soccer hates to change anything so I doubt they do anything, but this format is great.

Not much movement overnight. I decided to just make one larger play rather than fooling around.

Bayern Ov 3 -160

It is not that I dislike the over 3.5, I just feel safer betting the 3 just in case Lyon does not score (I know the Bayern TT would be at better odds but I just feel better covering my bases) and I have the winnings to cover it in case I lose which I do not think will happen.

I played this for much more than the Lyon TT.

Lyon needs to try to keep Bayern off the scoreboard as long as they can, because once Bayern gets one they tend to roll. Going to be interesting to see if Flick changes his lineup now that Pavard is fully healthy. I know it sounds nuts given their performances but this happens a lot in European soccer as there is an old saying that a starter does not lose his job because of injury. No way I would change it, but it is something to watch.

I have Bayern to win it all, so I have extra incentive for them to win. Plus I really want the PSG match up since I think there could be some real money to be made in that game. Nothing will make me happier than Bayern rolling PSG!!

 

[flapjack]

Following you on the Lyon O .5 and over 3 (and over 4 as well).

Feel like I gotta take Lyon +1075 for pure value/bad line. That line is completely out of whack. They?ll probably get drilled 5-1, but there?s no way it should be that high. +750 max. Thats a line for Bayern vs Cluj. Plus a couple lottery tickets correct scores Bayern 4-2 +3300 and 4-4 +60000!

 

[BASON]

I do not disagree. The line is nuts. I do a lot of this all the time (alternative plays, exact scores, etc.), especially when I have money to play with. I just do not post every single bet I make. I want to be judicious with the advice I give out because I know people do follow the plays. Nothing I hate more than losing people money, so I only post the plays I feel the best about.

I also do a lot of halftime betting since I think it is the one advantage bettors actually get, and if you are betting larger amounts, it gives you a chance to hedge. However, I rarely post those plays also since most can not follow anyway. I did post it yesterday because I really felt strongly about it and it was a one game situation where most are watching. I like posting in advance and giving people a chance to make the bets. Halftime plays and in-game bets (which I do not do) are difficult to follow. I have no issue at all with it, but it is just not my style.

I have been at this a long time and I prefer to limit my plays and make big bets when I really like something. I probably bet more $$ the last 2 weeks than I bet the whole rest of the year. After many years, I know what I do best at, and this format change, only made it better this year. I kind of equate it to betting the playoffs versus the regular season in the US sports. I always do well in the playoffs but bleed money during the regular season.

I think Kid and I compliment each other well and I like this small group. This is probably the longest I have posted in one place since I was doing some syndicate picks. I am more than happy to help a handful of people rather than dealing with thousands and all the BS when you do not win every pick. This group has been good about riding the waves and understanding that we all have losing streaks.

I think everyone has made money in this group over the last few years!!

 

[flapjack]

I really appreciate the work you and Kid do. You guys kick ass. Always check your plays before I play anything. And, I do a lot of in game betting. Made a killing on the Inter-Shaktar in game. But, Id been losing on soccer for a few years. Used to have a unique formula for betting draws. But that went bust in the recent years. Too damn much scoring nowadays. French soccer, especially Ligue 2 used to be a big money maker betting draws. No more. I still do well betting futures and hedging, but lose on individual games - hence why I follow you guys.

 

[Crookity]

I do not disagree. The line is nuts. I do a lot of this all the time (alternative plays, exact scores, etc.), especially when I have money to play with. I just do not post every single bet I make. I want to be judicious with the advice I give out because I know people do follow the plays. Nothing I hate more than losing people money, so I only post the plays I feel the best about.

I also do a lot of halftime betting since I think it is the one advantage bettors actually get, and if you are betting larger amounts, it gives you a chance to hedge. However, I rarely post those plays also since most can not follow anyway. I did post it yesterday because I really felt strongly about it and it was a one game situation where most are watching. I like posting in advance and giving people a chance to make the bets. Halftime plays and in-game bets (which I do not do) are difficult to follow. I have no issue at all with it, but it is just not my style.

I have been at this a long time and I prefer to limit my plays and make big bets when I really like something. I probably bet more $$ the last 2 weeks than I bet the whole rest of the year. After many years, I know what I do best at, and this format change, only made it better this year. I kind of equate it to betting the playoffs versus the regular season in the US sports. I always do well in the playoffs but bleed money during the regular season.

I think Kid and I compliment each other well and I like this small group. This is probably the longest I have posted in one place since I was doing some syndicate picks. I am more than happy to help a handful of people rather than dealing with thousands and all the BS when you do not win every pick. This group has been good about riding the waves and understanding that we all have losing streaks.

I think everyone has made money in this group over the last few years!!

Bason I think I speak for many others when I say THANK YOU for taking the time to post, your insights are much appreciated. Over the last 2 years I have learned a lot from you, and Kid. Like others have said when Bason and Kid are on a play its lock and load! My account may say 2014, but I was lurking on Madjacks a good 10 years before I ever made a post, and I must say this little Soccer group has probably been my favorite forum of all. Hopefully moving into next year we can get a few additional contributors.

Good luck today!

 

[BASON]

Thanks Crook, appreciate it.

Ready for this one to start, Andele!!!

 

[Crookity]

I agree Kid, it is tough, but if could be done, just not everyday like it is now. They have admitted that they like this format, but that it would be more difficult to schedule, but I think the scheduling is doable. I think it is more about money as teams lose home games. Soccer hates to change anything so I doubt they do anything, but this format is great.

Not much movement overnight. I decided to just make one larger play rather than fooling around.

Bayern Ov 3 -160

It is not that I dislike the over 3.5, I just feel safer betting the 3 just in case Lyon does not score (I know the Bayern TT would be at better odds but I just feel better covering my bases) and I have the winnings to cover it in case I lose which I do not think will happen.

I played this for much more than the Lyon TT.

Lyon needs to try to keep Bayern off the scoreboard as long as they can, because once Bayern gets one they tend to roll. Going to be interesting to see if Flick changes his lineup now that Pavard is fully healthy. I know it sounds nuts given their performances but this happens a lot in European soccer as there is an old saying that a starter does not lose his job because of injury. No way I would change it, but it is something to watch.

I have Bayern to win it all, so I have extra incentive for them to win. Plus I really want the PSG match up since I think there could be some real money to be made in that game. Nothing will make me happier than Bayern rolling

Should of been a winner, what a joke not even checking that Coutinho goal, WTF!!! If I see its onside, and you see its onside, and the commentators see it onside, how does nobody else in the Stadium bother to review? This entire VAR thing is a fiasco.

 

[BASON]

That was just one of those games. Very, very glad I went with the Ov 3. Always sucks when you do a good job capping the game but just can not catch a break. Lyon had plenty of A+ chances and just could not execute. Bayern was completely off their game offensively and still get 3. Second half was just terrible. Oh well, I am not complaining as that late goal saved me a lot of money.

Will get to work on the last two games and likely will have everything up on Friday.