BASON 2021-22

[BASON]

Lineups out, and as I expected, CR is playing it close to the vest and leaving starters on the bench while the US is playing their starters.

Line just got hit hard. but I like the USA at even money.

 

[BASON]

Not a lot of time this weekend, plus prefer to wait for CL.

Lean to the Under today in Germany.

Only play so far that is in for the weekend:

Lazio/Sassuolo BTTS and Ov 2.5 -124

I also played some BTTS and Ov 3.5 +144. I see no reason to back off these Italian overs especially with two of the highest scoring teams in the league.

 

[BASON]

Not in love with either game tomorrow, but one thing I know is that Man City is way overpriced. Premier league teams get the money and they set these lines way above where they should be.

Atletico +1.5

I will gladly take the hot team +1.5 and the team that won there 1-0 not too long ago. I like the way they are playing and they usually do a good job at keeping games close. They would be happy with a 1-0 loss.

If I had to bet the other game I would bet BTTS Yes. I think Benfica will score at home, but Liverpool is a much better team but no way I lay that number on the road.

 

[BASON]

That one went as planned.

I already have Bayern tied to a good size parlay from today, so the play (and the better play) for the game is:

Bayern/Villareal BTTS Yes

Bayern is the better side but Villarreal has to be somewhat aggressive in this game and I see them scoring.

Chelsea +111

I do not love this game, but I like this price given how Real has been playing. Like Atletico today, I see them being happy with a 1-0 loss without away goals mattering, so I expect them to play it close to the vest. Plus, you have to think Chelsea bounces following the bad league loss.

 

[BASON]

Well, that sucked. Bayern cost me big time today.

I actually like a lot tomorrow in Euro, unfortunately it is all chalk, so I will play around with the favorites and BTTS (not in Barca game).

I played two Conference games today:

Leicester Ov 2.5
Feyenord Ov 2.5

I see some goals tomorrow.

 

[BASON]

Okay, Bayern killed me last go round, so you know what that means? Yup, I am firing back with them again strong. They were terrible over the weekend as the focus was on this game after a terrible performance in Spain. I have to think they will come out firing in this game and look to bury them early. I just do not see them losing this game. I am playing this many ways but a lighter juice play is:

Bayern -1.5 -152

I am also playing the Bayern TT Ov 2 -247 rather big. I realize some may not want to lay this type of juice but I just do not see much risk that they do not score 2 goals at home. If you are not comfortable laying it use it in this parlay:

Bayern TT Ov 2/Liverpool TT Ov 2 +101

I will be very surprised if both these teams do not get at least 2 goals. Liverpool will capitalize on Benfica being aggressive.

I really like this parlay also for a little extra payout:

Bayern and Ov 2.5/Liverpool and Ov 2.5 +151

I will probably add Chelsea/Real BTTS Yes to this one as that is my preferred play for that game.

I am laying off the Atletico game.


I never go crazy with any one game and I have certainly lost plenty on Bayern games in the past, but I have to stick with my gut and past history with this one. A loss by Bayern would be considered a colossal failure and they tend to step up in these situations. As usual, the key to this one is Bayern getting the initial goal as soon as possible. Villarreal will bunker down, but I expect the pressure to be too much eventually and Bayern to score quickly after the first one.

 

[BASON]

Nothing to say. Sorry for those that followed. Bayern got what they deserved in that game. Nagelsmann proved how inexperienced he was and it cost them. My biggest problem with European soccer for over 40 years has been the not playing to win mentality. Nagelsmann got so caught up in worrying about extra time that he did not play to win. I thought Musiala should have came off at the half, instead he waits until the 81 minute to take him off. At a minimum Gnabry and Davies should have came in as soon as they scored the first goal. Their coaches lack of experience in the CL and their lack of a true playmaker in mid-field cost them this game. Can't wait to start reading the German press.

I will be all over Liverpool a few ways tomorrow. If they do down I will be taking a long break.

 

[BASON]

Strong trends against teams that played in CL and Europe the last couple times. I see it continuing, but I am focused on one game right now.

Union Berlin +113

This is a team I like at home anyway and now they get a Frankfurt team that is still partying after their huge win against Barcelona. Also get a great price.

 

[BASON]

Will play a little on Leverkusen and Sevilla in a Pk. More against CL and Euro teams.

 

[BASON]

Hope everyone is well. Had to take a little break as sometimes life just gets in the way.

I played a couple German Cup games today:

Nurnberg -2
Stuttgart Ov 2.5

The team Nurnberg is playing today is terrible. If they come to play they should kill them, same for Paderborn tomorrow.