BASON 2021-22

[BASON]

Love Champions League and it has been good to us.

I do not love today's games that much though, but I think we will see some goals in the PSG/Real game. I am playing:

BTTS Yes -168

I am not opposed to the over 2.5 -156, but if we are going to lay that kind of juice, the difference is not enough for me to not protect against the 1-1 draw.

I am not playing the City game. The change in the away goals rule changes some of the capping in these games. City will likely win this game but they know they have a huge home advantage, so just not enough for me to play. Plus, Lisbon is hard to predict at times.

And of course we have Bayern playing tomorrow in the biggest game in Salzburg history, so I will have plenty for that one to come!!!

 

[BASON]

I am trying not to get too excited about this game tomorrow. Bayern and Salzburg are on different levels. I expect a massive effort from Salzburg, just like last year, but a similar result. They played them very tough at home last year until the game got out of control at the end and ended 6-2. Bayern is just a much better team that is motivated. A loss to Salzburg would a huge deal for them in Germany, so I do not think we have the same situation as other much stronger road teams. They are obviously focused on this game as evidenced by their dreadful performance last week against Bochum, a 4-2 loss against a team they never lose to. I expect them to be focused for this game and they are on a hell of a CL roll.

As such, here is what I have played (in order of what I like best):

BTTS and Ov 2.5 -128
Ov 3.5 -117
Bayern and Ov 3.5 +138

Anything is possible on any given day, especially since this is the biggest game in Salzburg's history as a club, but I really do not see Bayern losing this game. If they do, I highly expect the game to have a lot of goals so the first two bets would win. Salzburg's problem is that they are an attacking team by nature, so it is hard to do that and defend against a team like Bayern, but I do expect them to score. I see a 3-2 type game.

 

[BASON]

Nothing to say except I was wrong yesterday and it cost me. Can't win them all.

One play I like today:

Zenit Ov 2.5

Played it straight and parlayed it with BTTS in Barca/Napoli

 

[johnnyb]

BASON 2021-22

Well that was easy. Nice work bud.

Any leans for next batch of games? Thx as always

Oh, and random observation ?> 538 gave Dortmund the highest probability of any team in the tourney to make it to the round of 8 (even though a bunch of teams were already thru to round of 16) and they are getting thrashed by rangers right now 4-1.

They also had Dortmund with highest chance to win entire tourney?

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[BASON]

Thanks. I will be working hard for the next round. You know I hate to lose, but today really helped as I hit that parlay hard.

 

[BASON]

Just two for tomorrow:

Everton/Southhampton BTTS Y
Frankfurt/Koln Ov 3

 

[BASON]

Bonus play in Bundesliga 2:

Nurnberg Ov 2.5

 

[BASON]

Do not like todays games at all. If pressed I would bet BTTS or the draw in the Juve game.

Do not like much tomorrow either, but I am on Ajax Ov 2.5. Benfica knows they have to score in this game to have any chance and this should open it on.

If Haaland is playing for Dortmund on Thursday, which is expected, I will be on them rather large.

 

[johnnyb]

Do not like todays games at all. If pressed I would bet BTTS or the draw in the Juve game.

Do not like much tomorrow either, but I am on Ajax Ov 2.5. Benfica knows they have to score in this game to have any chance and this should open it on.

If Haaland is playing for Dortmund on Thursday, which is expected, I will be on them rather large.

Thx for posting your leans, bason. I took both the draw and btts yes. Much appreciated


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[BASON]

I played,

Dortmund -126

Hit is rather hard. I just have a feeling they bounce back. Rangers got lucky in Dortmund and I think you see a much more focused team.

I also like a few BTTS bets, but I am just focusing on this one.

 

[BASON]

Not a lot to like today, but this is in:

Sassuolo Ov 3

Will likely parlay with Bayern Ov 3.5.

 

[BASON]

German Cup

Hamburg/Karlsruher BTTS Yes

Played this same bet yesterday and I like this one more today.

 

[BASON]

Winner, so adding one more:

Fiorentina/Juventus BTTS Yes

I am very tempted to bet Luton Town, so I will probably include them in a crazy parlay with an exact score of 1-1 in the Spanish Cup game.

 

[BASON]

One for today:

Koln Ov 3

I will be traveling (finally) for the next few weeks and I will not be posting. Going to take the time off and enjoy my first vacation in a long while!!

 

[BASON]

Adding:

MU/City BTTS Yes

 

[Crazy Fingers]

Enjoy the family time and vacation Bason. [emoji482]

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[BASON]

One for today:

Portugal/Turkey BTTS Yes +100

I like Turkey to score in this game but the Ov .5 is -133 so I will take BTTS at even money.

I have a feeling these games may be higher scoring than people think. FHs will be tight, but it is only one game so they should be playing to win, so I will be looking at HT lines is we get 0-0 FHs.

I think the USA/Mexico game is a tough one to bet. Would not be surprised to see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, but I am laying off. Will use Panama in a parlay as the price is steep for them but I think they win.

 

[BASON]

Maybe I am getting suckered in but I just put this in:

Germany/Israel BTTS Yes -115

This line has gotten hammered down as Germany is playing a C team on defense.

If you can get it, BTTS Yes and Ov 2.5 is +100

 

[BASON]

Got screwed by a missed penalty yesterday!

Just for fun and some action today, I think chalk rules:

Canada/USA parlay for even money

May do another adding Mexico ML and Costa Rica PK, but I like even money with Canada and USA to win.

 

[BASON]

today's action:

Germany/Dutch Ov 2.5 - I played this yesterday at -125 and now at -150. Like it even more.

Poland/Sweden BTTS Y - going against the grain here. I like the 1-1 draw but will play BTTS instead in case we get a 2-1 game. I think Sweden has to be more aggressive on the road.

North Macedonia +2 - this team continues to get no respect. They have beaten Italy and Germany on the road, so I think they will give Portugal all they can handle. Only way this gets out of control is if Portugal scores early, so I will take my chance with the +2.